"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

New Year's To Arrive, As Scheduled, with a Hitchhiker on Board

 A New Calendar Year Will Arrive Tonight ,  as Scheduled  

TODAY/TONIGHT: Little overall changes today with gradual warming temperatures and increased cloud cover at times ; light easterly wind for the most part.  There are some cloud breaks Central, but mainly over South Florida early this afternoon where temperatures are well into the 70Fs. Same will hold for tonight, New Year's Eve, with very little to no chance of rain until near midnight or thereafter; mainly not expecting any rains over Central until after 2-3AM in the morning through early  - mid morning Wednesday as a warm front at 2000 AGL (above ground) begins to form and lift north. This boundary will work to the surface but not clear Central Florida until around 8pm Wednesday evening. Most rains will occur along and north of that boundary due to increasing isentropic lift and increasing upper level divergence above the boundary associated with the Jet Stream level winds (the core of which is well north of Florida). 

NEW YEAR'S DAY: As a result, tomorrow will not be too far off from what it is like today, but a bit warmer, and possibly more cloud cover, but rains it appears for the most part 'should' hold off  (other than some sprinkles) until  well after midnight (which would be a good and safe thing for drivers).

THURSDAY: Possibly showers in the morning toward late morning but some clearing and much warmer, with winds breezy from the SW at 12-18 mph as the warm front progresses further toward I-10.  Chance of thunder, and maybe some strong wind gusts along the I-4 and south to along a Titusville to north Tampa Bay Line by late afternoon into early evening. Rains elsewhere possible but most of the earlier part of the day should be nearly rain free south of I-4 until at least early to mid afternoon. A cold front will press through all of Central from 4pm to 8pm with much cooler air to follow, especially after 9pm Thursday night; drier and much cooler air filter in all evening and through early Friday morning accompanied by a 'fresh breeze' from the NNW will make it feel all the more 'chilly' from what we've been accustomed to for quite some time.

Chance of heavier rainfall totals North Florida, and Some Thunder with a stronger wind gust possible Central, with decreasing rain chances further to South Florida as upper support will have pulled away from the state by the time the front gets that far south
FRIDAY: Breezy and 'too cool' out for hanging around in shorts in open air locations. Highs might reach 60F along an Orlando to Melbourne line and south more so, but north of those locations 60F might not be seen until after dark along the beach, which doesn't sound to make sense at first glance.

SATURDAY: Along the A1A strip temperatures might actually RISE over night, so that Saturday morning will dawn WARMER than it ever was Friday afternoon. Temperatures to hold in the mid-upper 60Fs into the dark Saturday night due to winds becoming more easterly after dark Friday night, and then...

SUNDAY: ...Again, east of US1 and more so A1A, this day will dawn even yet warmer again with sunrise temperatures closer to 70F..courtesy of easterly winds.

NEXT WEEK: Very sticky time frame. There continues to be an indicator of 'near severe' weather in the 8-9th of January time frame, but that option seems to appear less often than more so. The GFS is struggling with the next system. The Battle Field appears to be between the Southern Branch Jet going across the Baja to Florida vs. a  Cold Air Core Low over James Bay and it's associated Jet Stream duking it out...guidance varies vastly from one run of the model to the time will tell.

" Let the Good Times Roll"

No comments:

Monday, December 30, 2013

Improved Weather Through New Year's Eve, Cloudy New Year's Day (?)

Similar Conditions Tuesday Morning, but with less Cloud Cover

TODAY: Clearing skies to the north of the Central Line but more clouds on the increase already western panhandle. Latest GFS (Global Forecast System) model is consistent with much improved conditions cloud wise especially for most of Central Florida through early afternoon tomorrow, but with increasing clouds especially after dark and from there on out as low pressure forms in the far SW Gulf of Mexico.

This low, as it stands in the forecast now, is forecast to trace along the entire northern Gulf just south of the coastline and to come ashore much weakened near Apalachicola, but this portion of the forecast (especially)will likely require refining several times in the next 36-40 hours.

Clearing skies to the north of the Central Line
but more clouds on the increase already western panhandle
NEW YEAR'S EVE : A little warmer tomorrow with similar winds, increasing clouds by mid-late afternoon and becoming more dense over night into New Year's Day; mild temperatures.

NEW YEAR'S DAY: Chance of light rain showers especially closer toward the I-4 corridor, otherwise mostly cloudy with a high in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Another cold front will be taking shape to enter into North Florida on Thursday.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain, some possibly heavy along the I-4 in general but much will depend on where a weak low pressure area in the Gulf (which has yet to form) tracks across the state if it does form; so far the I-4 or north of there seems to be the likely candidate for the most rain, but this could change to as far south as the Beach Line to Tampa area in general  ; Time will tell.. But regardless...

FRIDAY: INCONVENIENTLY COOL ALL DAY with highs possibly not cracking 60F for all but South Florida, with breezy conditions during late morning through late afternoon. 2014 enters in on the wet then 'relatively cold' side. Continued cool and almost a bit chilly over night except warmest along the immediate east coast from the Cape and South, east of the Indian River and more so the Banana River.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Might see some more clouds moving in again slowly during the weekend, but moderating temperatures most notably along the beaches during the hours of morning low temperatures. By Sunday it will almost be as if it never got cool/cold at all..along the beach side Sunday morning.

Rains on Thursday
Much Inconveniently Cool/Cold on Friday
Otherwise, varying clouds and near average temperatures. 

No comments:

Friday, December 27, 2013

Chance of Rain / Stronger Storms Sunday, Cool Temperatures New Year's Eve Day

"Rain chances increase for Sunday, then again next week after a cool down"
TODAY: A low level warm front at around 2000 ft (925mb), the remains of the previous cold front Christmas Eve day morning,   persists from somewhere between far North Brevard toward Central Volusia County and west across the state and well into the west to southwest Gulf. Over running this boundary is increased moisture and  cloudiness, with persistent cooler afternoon high temperatures, like yesterday, north of the boundary toward Central Volusia and north and especially across the  Panhandle of the state..

TONIGHT: Similar to last night and this morning in general.  An upper level energy/upper trough over western parts of Texas will begin to be progressing eastward in response to Jet Stream winds diving south  and will put a 'kink' in the above shown boundary (at 2000 feet above ground level) lifting it northward later on Saturday by mid-afternoon eventually as far north as South Central to Central Georgia. Wind at the ground level will become more east southeast and eventually SE-S overnight Saturday night into Sunday, and then SW by late morning to mid-afternoon Sunday. Warmer Saturday and Sunday despite cloudiness but not as warm as it could be as clouds might continue to be a nuisance.

A front will be forming as a result of this energy to approach the state, extending from low pressure to form near Mobile which will press ENE-NE toward Pensacola and into Georgia with the attendant frontal boundary to lie across Central Florida between 4pm - 9pm Sunday afternoon/evening from north to south. 

"......A front will be forming as a result of this energy to approach the state "
There is a small chance of strong to very isolated severe thunderstorms from near  Tallahassee to JAX and southward with time to a line running from Sarasota to Cocoa Beach later Sunday afternoon between 2pm -6pm time frame (Brevard County in general the latest after 3pm).  This could have been a potential true severe weather event but as has been the case numerous times since late fall the upper level winds that would support severe weather more assuredly will have exited east of the state prior to  the other dynamics that will be in place later on Sunday; however, conditions for even stronger wind gusts in the 40-50mph might be possible with even only a heavy rain shower for a very brief window of opportunity Sunday afternoon up until about 5pm - 6pm north of Vero Beach along the east coast more so from Cocoa Beach northward.

" .....conditions for even stronger wind gusts in the 40-50mph might be possible with even only a heavy rain shower"
BEYOND SUNDAY: This front will only be the first of two boundaries, and it is with the second one the much cooler air arrives, but to be short-lived relatively speaking. A few cooler mornings in store with lows running the 50Fs range and into possibly the mid-upper 40Fs interior and western Central to North Central Florida (much colder North Florida) , and also toward SW Florida. 

Again, the east coast immediate from the Cape and South east of US1 and especially east of A1A will escape the worst of this cool spell  as has been the case this winter season (which isn't all so unusual and is in general climatologically correct). Several times this season already the warmest spot in the country has been east of A1A from Cape Canaveral and south through the Keys.

NEXT UP: Perhaps it should be no surprise then that New Year's Eve day, like Christmas Eve day, might be again the coolest overall day round the clock that we've had in some time once the second boundary goes through Monday afternoon.As noted before in the previous post, there are signs of a possible severe weather event, this one on Sunday being one of them that as it ends up isn't quite panning out up to 'severe par', but there is yet another signal of another chance sometimes around January 8-10th time frame, this time stronger than this up and coming Sunday, as it appears a boundary and low pressure system will also be present once again, only further south than the set up for this weekend across North Florida.

BEYOND THE BEYOND: Granted, by talking the January 8th time frame we are already into extremely low confidence forecast range that is beyond reason, or nearly so, but for watchful eye's sake we are only talking trends and patterns..and in doing so, the guidance of the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model is sticking to it's pattern of beginning to form yet another low in the western Gulf after the potential event just described above. This is not unusual, for patterns to establish and repeat themselves in various ways. 

It can be noted that a low-mid-level pseudo boundary has seemed to set up thermally speaking across the Northern Gulf and North Central Florida for nearly 10 days now..and the longer this can persist the greater the thermal contrast aloft can set up to induce more rainmaking systems once upper level  energy passes overhead that invisible thermal threshold.

No comments:

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Christmas 'Eve' & Day / 'Earth' & Sky Sanctums


No comments:

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Merry Christmas - Images


No comments: