"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Likelihood of a "Severe Spring Sting on Sunday" Increasing

TODAY: Cool spell on it's way out already as next storm system is just beginning to take shape over the Inter-Mountain Region with Severe weather risks increasing toward parts of Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana and much of Arkansas (especially), with a broader swath of 'severe potential' as well approaching many regions nearer the Mississippi River Valley basin up toward the lower Ohio Valley.

Closer to home, a small surge of moisture off the east coast might bring ashore some showers to the east coast come later in the afternoon into the early evening. They are evident on the Melbourne, FL radar as will be seen in the next image below.

FRIDAY: Continued warming trend with wind becoming more southeasterly, temperatures running near seasonal norms. At time, showers not expected.

SATURDAY: Storm system that will have impacted many areas in  eastern portions of the Southern Plains into areas of Dixie and up into parts of the Ohio Valley will continue to press east as a squall line, with the upper level parent trough continuing to deepen southward. 

There is a lot of wind energy with this system, so expect to be hearing all about it on the news channels as part of their broadcasts in days to come.

Locally, increasing low level instability over South Florida and up the east coast south of I4 with ample moisture and a late afternoon merger of the west coast sea breeze toward the east coast might be enough to manifest showers, and who knows, 'maybe' some thunder in a few areas mainly south of I-4 late in the day or early evening impacting potentially even the immediate east coast. On the other hand, we might see but nary a shower. Will have to wait another day or two for better confirmation on that potential.

Meanwhile, there is a likelihood that some form of a severe watch for the panhandle will come into the picture late Saturday into Saturday evening/early Sunday. Weather it be a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch, cannot say.

SEVERE SUNDAY: Likelihood of 'Severe Sunday Weather Activity' as of 8AM model guidance continues to be showing up . The pattern has been 'quite consistence', or the indication thereof for as much as  two days straight over 7 model runs so looks like there's no turning back now.

As of late overnight and early today, the likelihood for a slight risk of severe has brought the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) to warrant the first bell alert for Sunday.

 In looking at two separate models here at Blogger Home Central it does appear likely that almost all of the state will be in a slight risk with a least a severe thunderstorm watch in place (at least) for the state at varying times as the associated frontal boundary and potentially a pre-frontal boundary begins to emerge. 

The chance of a pre-frontal boundary manifesting would be most likely straight down the peninsula late Sunday morning into the mid-afternoon.   This is an important 'additional aspect' to monitor because if this does occur, it would add a 'sting' to the already potentially severe weather situation at hand.

Secondly, a secondary jet max at 35,000 feet could emerge around the base of the main upper level trough resulting in greater divergence  aloft across North Central to South Central Florida after 2pm and especially after 4:30PM after peak heating. That factor increases lift in the atmosphere and would increase shear as well.

 That, coupled with cold air aloft  and if the pre-frontal trough appears at the lower level, increased directional shear 'might' warrant a tornado watch as well. 

Previously the main threat appeared to be predominantly wind and small hail, so these trends ought be monitored.

Chances are that TV news stations will begin to sound the 'alert' during the evening news and subsequent broadcasts as Sunday approaches.

Will have to wait out and see what the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which is located in Norman, Oklahoma does with their upcoming forecast as the  experts monitor model trends, of which they have many more than the commoner, such as this blog.

BEYOND: Breezy follow the frontal passage and rapid clearing into Monday. Cooler but not 'too cool' on Monday with highs still in the 70Fs.

Tuesday looks to be the coolest all around day with lows possibly into the lower - mid 50Fs interior portions of the state and mid-upper 50Fs along the east coast south of I-4. And still a bit breezy. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, cooler than it has been in quite a while. 

 Afternoon highs however in the mid 70Fs as wind begins to decrease.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Rapid return to normal temperatures after another cool start to the day Wednesday but with very light wind. The remainder of the week appears uneventful.

NEXT SUNDAY: Would not be unusual for another 'like' system to this Sunday to approach the state about a week later since these frontal systems usually come in 'families'. And no surprise that there is another front with some kind of  storm activity with it , at least in these early prelude stages, showing up. 

At time, 'severe' does not appear to be in the cards, though 'strong' storms does look at least to be a potential mainly North- Central Florida . Too far out to say though, with any certainty at this time . If planning outdoor activity next Sunday afternoon, well, it might rain.  And who knows -- maybe more than that.

No comments:

Monday, April 9, 2018

Showers-Thunder Today / 'Strong Storms' Tuesday?

The APRIL FOOL'S DAY 'Tornado' - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool front that had passed south into far South Central Florida Sunday has lifted back north as 'warm front' across Central around sunrise and is now up across North Florida lifting toward the Florida/Georgia border. As a result, the cool northeast wind of yesterday has become a warm south to south southwest wind by late morning, Monday.

Latest short term guidance shows ample low level instability for thunderstorms today however moisture is rather limited  across parts of South/South Central, such as one gets further south toward Okeechobee / St Lucie Counties.  Currently a line of showers is beaded out across the state with the retreating warm front, as noticeable in this visible satellite image below.

Given current forecast trends and what is shown for instability and wind aloft, might need to watch that, despite 15kts of a west wind at 2000-3000 ft above ground level (AGL), if a sea breeze won't be able to develop along the east coast south of the Cape to South Florida. That would act as a low level convergence mechanism which might truly be needed for additional lift in the absence of any other kind of boundary today that could produce ' lightning '.

Though some guidance shows showers developing across East Central Florida by mid-afternoon, it is always possible, the better chance of thunder would be "IF" a sea breeze can  indeed from, which would help result in low level lift. 

Otherwise, mainly showers would be the call of the day. 

A second area to watch would if the sea breeze can form and combine with the Lake Okeechobee shadow which could result in a good storm or two somewhere around St. Lucie or Martin County.

TUESDAY: This day is the more 'interesting' day of the two. 

Colder air  and stronger wind aloft will be present . Instability might be able to be ample enough mainly south of a line running from New Smyrna Beach to Brooksville. The region just south of there to a line north of a line running from near Vero Beach on the east coast to Sarasota on the west coast might be the best region to watch for 'possibly' stronger storms tomorrow though at this time there has been no 'Official Declarations'' from the 'powers that be' at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to state as such.

Either way, rain chances look to be a little bit better bet tomorrow though even so, not every one will see rain tomorrow, or even today. We could use the rain   given the dry season we are in with the wet season still nearly 2 months away.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: Very progressive pattern across the nation's mid country with quick over turning of air masses from warm to cold and back again. The big headline weatherwise might end up being snow in Eastern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin region (the northern plains). ..with near blizzard conditions (?). Though that chance is still uncertain.

 Florida will be beguilingly quiet with seasonal temperatures.

SUNDAY: ....HOWEVER - the recent trends are for a very deep and potent full latitudinal trough from Southern Canada well into the GULF might be making the dig toward the east coast toward the Second half of next weekend. The time frame currently being watched for is Sunday for a QLCS type squall line to move across the state during the day...with the threat of strong wind gusts.

This is still way out in the future however, and at this point is nothing other than an assumption based in but a few hints of information. Thus, easily subject to change/re-interpretation.

NEXT WEEK: The other fly in the ointment even out further is in the temperature forecast. If the trend continues, we can expect to need to break out the jackets and sweater for a few days next week with lows in the 50FS and breezy conditions by next Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool yes, but only briefly.

No comments:

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

"Risk" of All Modes of Severe Weather Being Possible Today

The "Good Friday" Severe Storm - 2016
TODAY: Very little change in thinking from previous post the other day. 

A prefrontal boundary across North Florida will start to become 'active' come late morning toward the Big Bend area south and eastward toward the Gainesville  - St Augustine line (mainly) and south.

As stronger wind aloft in the mid-levels begins to coincide with the leading edge of a jet stream speed max now entering the north Gulf and poised to approach the area mainly from I-4 and north heading to mid -afternoon activity should increase in coverage and intensity due to the resultant bulk-shear up through the atmosphere  coupled with daytime heating.

Mid level lapse rates in this area accompanied by bulk-shear (mainly speed shear with some directional shear as well) in between the 5000-20,000 foot levels and ample low level instability with very cold air aloft could produce storms with 'damaging hail' and/or straight line winds. A tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

The time frame for the areas of North Florida southward through Volusia County is from  around 1pm - 4pm.

Further south, daytime heating will have had more time to work over parts of North Central - Central Florida (assuming this timing is correct) and that there is good insolation ( not too many high clouds spreading over this area), which will result in  'better' low level lapse rates as well. 

This 'window of opportunity' of better low level lapse rates will coincide with the 'increasing winds aloft through the mid-levels' over-spreading the area south of I-4 as the jet speed max approaches the state (as noted above) enhancing upper level divergence producing greater lift in the atmosphere.

Thus, as of this time ( 5:00AM) the 'line of activity' and possible random storm cells out ahead of the main-thrust of activity could see an up-tick in the hours between 3-6PM as the pre-frontal trough pushes East to East South East across the state. 

The time frame currently anticipated for the Southern Volusia -Orange-Seminole - North to Central Osceola - and most of Brevard Counties of the 'highest risk' of 'potentially severe storms' is between 3pm - 7pm as activity presses east and south across the peninsula as day-time heating will be reaching it's peak and resultant surface based CAPE (convective available potential energy) increases.

Note that time frames noted above are subject to change, as are conditions, once later model runs are released and made available during the late morning hours (generally after 10:30AM - noon time).  'Potentially' a region in the Enhanced Risk area (see below) might be upgraded to Moderate Risk, and if so suspect it would be for the region generally 30 miles north and south of the Daytona Beach area. But , again, that is nothing but surmising.

BLOG "Forecast" From Previous Post

Above was the 'forecast' (blog only) for today from the other day, and below is the latest SPC outlook. 

SPC OUTLOOKS are available 'HERE"

It is 'highly recommended' that access to media outlets , whether by weather radio or even one's trusted television station be at hand to monitor potential threats in one's specific location going into early-mid afternoon.

Again, above is the 'best guess' risk area from a few days ago in the previous post, and the latest advisory issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, Oklahoma . As can be seen, the forecasters at The SPC have determined there is an Enhanced Risk (which is greater than a Slight Risk) for parts of mainly North - North Central Florida. A later update will be released around 8AM EDT with another to follow around 12:30PM EDT.

Side note: "Celestial" Spring begins at 12:15PM EDT, today as the sun will be passing over the the equator heading toward the Tropic of Cancer at which point is the first day of 'Summer' (in late June).

Activity should quickly weaken, assuming the current timing of activity being depicted by the 4KM NAME and High Resolution  Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models coincident with sunset, as the central low level axis (pre-frontal trough) progresses further south toward Ft Pierce - West Palm Beach areas and stronger wind in the mid-levels shifts off the east coast of Central -South Central Florida.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy NW wind all day and dry. Colder air is on the way for Thursday- Saturday morning, but Wednesday will still see the 70Fs despite the wind.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Cooler again with lows ranging in the mid-40Fs to lower 50Fs and highs in the mid-upper 60FS most areas but touching the lower 70Fs Friday. Thursday will be quite breezy going into Friday , but the wind will quickly diminish going through Friday and into the weekend.

FRIDAY-AFTERNOON and BEYOND: Warming to normal to even above normal temperatures this weekend , and dry with light wind. Cooler sea-side with the sea breezes in place, with highs at the beaches more than likely in the 70Fs.

The next chance of rain is currently being shown (easily subject to change) in the period from near Good Friday - Easter Sunday or a day or two either side of that period. No cold air influx , at least as cool as it will be Thursday - Saturday morning, is being shown to arrive at all at this point, but rather a frontal boundary is to press into the Southeast States and eventually Central Florida and wash out. This could change, however.

No comments:

Saturday, March 17, 2018

First Day of Spring (Tuesday) Might Come in Like a Roaring Severe Lion

Dandelion , March 17, 2016  
TODAY- SUNDAY: Warming trend has commenced and will continue through Tuesday. Though Sunday and Monday mornings will still be on the cool side, a quick warm up toward mid-morning will ensue, with temperatures running at to just a bit above normal. Atmosphere will gradual moisten a bit so it won't be quite as dry. Meanwhile, a complex mid-upper level low pressure system is already beginning to take shape from the Southern Plains states toward the Southeast states, which will move toward the east coast through Tuesday.
This system will be responsible for severe weather threats across multiple states in the next few days.

MONDAY: The 'risk' of the first of two impulses could impact the state mainly North - North Central areas. Latest GFS is showing sufficient low level instability, cold air aloft, and wind shear aloft to support strong storms mainly north of a line from Clearwater area (west coast) toward Sebastian or Vero Beach (east coast). Better risk will be north of I-4. This day is still questionable as earlier guidance was barely squeezing out a rain shower toward the east coast late in the day. The latest run is much more aggressive so bears watching.

TUESDAYTuesday is the First Day of Spring, beginning at 12:15PM EDT, most fitting for the cliche of March (or Spring) coming in like a Lion and goes out like a Lamb. Any truth to it? Not Really. 

 Risk of severe storms roaring through appears to be increasing.

 GFS has been consistent in the potential now for two days, and the latest run only increased that potential several notches. Ample surface based instability, cold air aloft, and strong speed shear aloft is forecast as the nose of a 120 knot jet stream wind aloft points to passing right over North Central Florida    enhancing lift right during the time of peak heating.  Bulk shear of 50-70kts between 10-20,000 feet aloft added in definitely points to 'Severe Parameters'.  Directional shear is lacking a bit at this point however.

All said parameters align ahead of a prefrontal trough and cold front, with the boundary as it stands now to enter Central Florida during to just after peak heating hours through sunset. Timing of course could easily change on the system during the next 48 anticipated hours, but chances are we will begin to hear about it on the evening local news stations. 

  As of Today the biggest threat appears to be South of I-10 and north of Route 60 or roughly north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota Line on Tuesday. Strong storms possible from a line running toward Melbourne to South Tampa Bay on Monday but this is quite sketchy still.

Given this is still several days out the apparent 'most at risk' area  is subject to change/ intensity modifications. The Storm Prediction Center is already watching all of Central Florida on Tuesday for a 'severe risk' with parts of North Florida on Monday.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Cooler and breezy Wednesday into Thursday. Coldest air does not reach the peninsula until over night Wednesday through all of Thursday into Friday. Looks like temperatures will cool to below normal once again, but not as cold as this last go around. At this stage it looks like we'll recover to near normal temperature range a bit quicker as well, so that by the weekend all will be 'near normal'. No other rain chances in sight at least until Easter time frame (at least).

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Saturday, March 10, 2018

A Little Gnarly Come Sunday into Monday - Then Colder Again

TODAY: Per satellite image below and a rather complicated evolution of mid level lower pressure over the Southeast states in the next 48 hours, the forecast for timing of any rain / storm events and the nature of them is still rather sketchy. In the previous post (Tuesday) it was mentioned there could be possibly strong storms on Sunday. That has not changed.

Otherwise for today, slowly warming and moistening of the atmosphere (finally)  with increasing high level clouds especially South and South Central later in the day (it now appears). Otherwise light Southeast wind and rain free other than maybe later more toward South Florida.


SUNDAY: Sunrise will be at 7:36AM and sunset at 7:28PM.

Pre-frontal type trough ahead of a developing cold front to enter the picture across Florida in the midst of warmer temperatures again but with cold air aloft, increasing moisture, and destabilizing atmosphere with increasing wind shear and some directional shear points to possibly even 'rotating storms' (at least slightly) if they can get going. Best chance of rain from early to mid-morning west coast working east though some activity might be able to go up toward the east coast (mainly south of I4) on it's own some time after 1PM.

Still looks like with directional/speed shear and sufficient surface based instability and cold air aloft the potential remains for strong storms. Some areas could see some 'good rain' in the next 48 hours but then again some locations might end up with very little to none at all.  The rain chances shift south going into Monday afternoon (eventually).

Noting , that the OFFICIAL FORECAST from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  is also eyeing North Florida on Sunday for Strong storms

MONDAY : Frontal boundary should be near Central Florida before sunset as rain chances end. Again a chance of showers or thunder on Monday mainly south of I-4 with temperatures still in the mid-upper 70Fs and some lower 80Fs possible. Sun will be setting Monday evening at 7:29 PM.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: Front will have cleared. Breezy and cool like it was this last go around. Dry as well, which does not fair well at this time of year with increased fire risk.

THURSDAY: Another front might well go through in a secondary surge of what is now showing to be extremely  and unusually dry air for this time of year. Colder yet again with this surge but we round the corner pretty quickly going into the week end after which no rain or cold air is foreseen for quite some time afterward.

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Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Chances of Rain Tonight/Early Wednesday (& Storms Sunday )

Surfing at Jetty Park Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY - TONIGHT: Warmer and breezy with south - southwesterly wind . Mainly 'sunny' south of I-4 the majority of the day. Cold front now cutting through the panhandle (see below) to work toward the I-4 come late overnight   to be near a Cape Canaveral - Sarasota line between 7-8AM Wednesday morning. Chance of showers and maybe even some thunder with the front mainly near the West Coast from Sarasota northward and along to north of I-4.

WEDNESDAY: After front works through early in the day (Central) and later in the day (South) westerly type wind in the 10-15 mph. Though with the front there might be a brief period of gustier wind it  appears that will wane off as the day progresses. Clearing sky with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler, akin to the past 'cool spell' with interior morning lows in the lower 40Fs up toward the mid-upper 40FS more widely spread. Appears the immediate Barrier Islands of Brevard and south  will see closer to lower 50FS and warmer still far South Florida. Wind will not be quite as breezy though as it was the past few days during our previous cooler period as highs strain to reach even 70F on Thursday and Friday or if they do, it would be but for only a brief time.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON- SUNDAY: Next front on the way. This boundary and accompanying 'air mass' might yield a better overall rain chance , and there might also be some storms (possibly strong) along with it. 

Atmospheric Parameters that would support stronger storms have been continuously showing up now for several days in the GFS guidance, but exactly when and where (if so) is hard to say other than 'somewhere closer to and south of I-4" between early Sunday morning to as late as Sunday night' (depending on ones location). In short, nothing definite yet but still looks like some much needed rain will again be on the way, with the 'threat' of possibly stronger activity with it.

Cool again after this frontal passage  but nothing more than what we just saw and will see come this Thursday- Saturday morning .

Latest GFS has a secondary boundary coming through "Monday" that could potentially yield showers or storms again,  but that is a new 'card in the deck' and not sold on it just yet. If it is out of it's league, then after Sunday there would not be a rain chance again Monday nor will be one for at least a week to follow.

FAR OUT: Long range guidance implies several more opportunities for rain or storms spread out about 6-10 days apart from each going into early April, which is about the norm this time of year. Any rain would be a good thing, given we are in the midst of and slowly nearing the end of the 'Dry Season" (the "Wet Season 'typically beginning  to as early as the last 10 days of May or  as late as the second week of June, depending on the year).

SATURDAY NIGHT: Day Light Savings Time begins -

 Set clocks Forward one hour before hitting the sack Saturday night.

Sun will rise later in the morning, but set later in the early evening.

Days continue to get longer on either end by a minute or so
 all the way to June 21.

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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Bee-lieve It: Record Warm February in Progress - Chance of Showers Overnight

 Not much change from previous post which was a while ago. Record warmth, mainly in regard to overnight warm minimums as was anticipated continues, and shall continue to be the case up through Monday.

TODAY: With that said, the only change from the past two days is a better risk of rain showers over Eastern Half of State toward mid-late evening  tonight and up through before sunrise Friday certain areas. Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 60FS with lower 70Fs east coast south of the Cape - highs in the interior running in the mid 80Fs. 

Clermont yesterday reached 90F, a new record for that location. Immediate Beach side temperatures have been running in the upper 70Fs to near 80F north of Ft Pierce, and south of the Cape.

As noted, a few showers possible overnight tonight as shown above. The GFS has been proposing as such for a few days now and the 4KM NAM has fallen in line.  

The NWS in Melbourne is pointing out that many areas in "East Central Florida" are in-line for a record or near record warm February, after below to much below temperatures last month. Does that mean the trend will continue through March? 

Not necessarily. The GFS and the Climate CFS-V2 model both show a shift to occur possibly in the later parts of the first week of March that would take us all the way down to 'normal'. But, that is quite a way off, and too soon to weigh in on with any due course of certainty.

A cold front is  expected , however, to work down the state late Monday afternoon or into the evening (timing could change). Prior to that we might see near to record high max temperatures as well for many parts of East Central Florida as wind acquires a more Southwesterly Component prior to frontal Passage.

 Post-front conditions appear will still be 'above normal' mainly in the morning minimums and will provide for a cooler day by standards of late, but still above average. The front itself appears will go through as 'dry'. 

Quick recovery after that front to continued  'above normal' temperatures thus follows by a day or two after the front clears. Noting, that it is the interior that is truly feeling the warmth in the afternoons. The 'immediate' coast has been much more mild-moderate with less than a 10F degree difference between morning low minimums and afternoon maxes.

I have observed that the water temperature at the buoy near the Cape Canaveral Port entrance is now reading water temperature of 73F which is up a whopping 10F degrees from about a month ago.

The NWS , Melbourne has been busy putting out  'Record' or "Tying Record' reports most every day, mainly for the warm, minimum category, though some record highs have been reported as well, one such location being 'Sanford'. Below is but a few samples of these reports.

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Sunday, February 11, 2018

Showers / Thunder Possible Central/North Late - Above Normal Temperatures Continue

February 24 2014 - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Not much change from previous reasoning. Low level surface ridge axis across far South Florida combined with closest approach to the north of upper level trough will yield a general SSW flow aloft while sea breezes will still be permitted to become active. Slight surface based instability with very cool air aloft but with poor lapse rates in the mid levels could still yield some thunder where greatest upward forcing occurs late today toward interior Central/East Central up toward eastern portions of North Central (Volusia County) the vicinity of the west-east coast sea breeze collision zone where best surface based instability will also be present after a full day of heating. 

Otherwise, continued warm with temperatures averaging 10-15F degrees above climatological norms for this time of year. At this time of year in history past there has been historic freeze events (only to emphasize how varied one year can be from the next).

Best chance of showers will be approximately 10 miles from any coast "South to most of Central Florida" but with a working toward the immediate coast mainly from Central Brevard northward. A thunder might occur near the Lake Okeechobee / Sea Breeze collision boundary  South Central but the greater focus appears to be in the Orlando/Osceola County region to east side of Orlando, maybe even working toward I-95 Central Brevard most likely near to after dark. After sunset would 'expect' the activity would quickly dwindle (at least in regard to lightning chance) with some strangling in-cloud lightning aloft remaining a possibility with thunder audible some areas.

Activity could potentially work offshore Volusia County as thunder and rain showers from Central Brevard northward is not entirely out of the question.

Many areas will not see rain at all today but those that do it will be a welcome sight for days ahead appear to continue to be on the dry side, as would be generally expected this time of year.

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Dry most areas and continued warm. Best chance of showers or maybe some thunder mainly interior western parts of North Central up toward I-10. (Lake County, areas around Ocala, Gainesville). This will occur as the ridge axis currently far South Florida lifts toward North Florida putting the majority of the state under a light easterly flow pattern. Thus, coastal afternoon temperatures will continue to be greatly modified by cool air advection off the near shore Atlantic waters making for 10F or less degree variations between overnight temperatures and afternoon highs at the beaches.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Little change in temperatures with dry conditions. A frontal boundary to ease down the state in a rather  ' backdoor fashion ' will modify temperatures just a bit come Friday into Saturday time frame with little to no fanfare. Saturday might be a bit cooler with a recovery on Sunday at least as is currently being reflected by the GFS model. Even so, those cooler temperatures will still be above 'normal' and not below the 64F mark overnight (interior).

FURTHER OUT: Any big cold blasts from the past on the horizon? Yes and No. Very long range climactic model guidance has at times been showing 'much colder' coming into the first or second week of March which is questionable given how far out in time that projection is. It is not unusual to have a very cool to cold spell in the first half (at least ) of March, but usually they are rather short-lived. The trend, however, has been to ease off that potential.

No comments:

Saturday, February 10, 2018

Above "Normal' Temperatures Continues into Next Week / Chance of Central Thunder Sunday

"Jacob" (or Jake) near Port Canaveral Jetty - 2015 Early February
TODAY: Not much discernible change in the overall weather scheme other than rising dew-points. Early Saturday morning dew-points near the east coast were in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs. 

With increased moisture will be an increased 'mugginess' especially notable in the mornings for some time to come. 

Afternoon highs west of US1 in the lower 80Fs with highs approaching the mid-80Fs in more interior locations possible almost anywhere. Coolest afternoon highs near the immediate coast, depending on how long before the east coast sea breeze sets in, but in general beaches will see upper 70Fs until that time, at which point they will go down as wind blows across ocean temperatures now running in the mid 60Fs.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary stretched SW to NE across the Deep South will set the stage for wide spread rain and cloud cover, with some thunder possible mostly across the West Half to Third of the Florida Panhandle later today / tonight.

SUNDAY: Again, not much change as frontal boundary begins to stall before reaching Florida. Wind will be more southerly and light, though with the upper trough making it's closest 'approach' to the Peninsula mid-level winds will have gained  more of a SW to NE steering flow. 

The east coast sea breeze will work inland but may not much make it more than 30-40 miles inland of the east coast (South of I-4) 

Best convergence of sea breezes with light to moderate surface based instability could yield boundary driven showers and maybe even some thunder 'somewhere' within the region shown below. 

The best chance of thunder will be very close to the region of low level surface temperature contrasts which will be ahead of the sea breeze, thus over the 'interior' in general. With the steering from SSW-SW toward the east coast some activity might be able to reach even the beaches toward to after dark. The risk of 'thunder' by that time might be minimal as low - mid level lapse rates look quite week, not strong enough to support updrafts as is currently being shown. Surface based instability (CAPE) will be running around 1000 j/kg (compare to summer months when it runs between 2800 - 4000 j/kg). Additionally, any shower or storm activity approaching the east coast will be riding over much cooler surface temperatures (courtesy of the cool ocean temperatures) which likely would put the kibosh on any activity attempting to reach the coast.

The NAM model is not nearly as generous with the 'rain coverage', showing a storm closer toward interior Volusia County and others possible more toward SW Florida. On the other hand, the GFS has consistently been favoring 'mainly' south of I4 toward the interior with a drift to the immediate east coast after dark.

So for now, just drew an 'overall and in general' image for where rain/thunder might occur late Sunday into the evening.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Little change in overall temperature scheme, with the interior (or region west of US1) much warmer than the 'immediate beach' going into mid-later afternoon once sea breezes develop. 

Warmest temperatures likely 20 miles from any coast, not to say that all areas won't  be a bit above normal. If there is to be any 'records' broken, morning warm minimums   seem more likely, especially at the beaches; however, since the officially recorded locations that establish the norms/records in those locations are non-existent there will be no way to know if indeed, record warm minimums have been set at the beaches, so we'll have to rely on other sparsely official sites such as Melbourne / Ft Pierce / Vero Beach (at least as far as the east coast is concerned). Otherwise, afternoon maxes will be a challenge. In past years we have seen upper 80Fs set as records going back up to 60 years ago. Regardless...

Chance of shower or even thunder  continues for a region north of I-4 such as in Lake County up toward the Ocala Region (interior North Central to NW Interior Florida) Monday or both days.

MIDWEEK - FRIDAY: Dryer weather with little to no chance of rain with temperatures continuing as already discussed. 

Though a front may will slide down the state  Wednesday no rain is anticipated with it, and only slight cooling will be noticed from it, especially on Thursday morning; even so, morning lows will still be in the lower -mid 60Fs for areas at the beaches Central Florida and south with the interiors noticing more of the 'drop' which will still result in above normal morning lows.

Quick recovery on temperatures though 'alqd ' (All Quadrants) come Friday.

Latest guidance now shows it could be warmer even into all of next weekend, but previous guidance was not so generous. 

Too far out to say for now.

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Thursday, January 11, 2018

Slight Chance of Storms Tomorrow - Bleak Midwinter Next Week

Sunrise, January 10 , 2018 Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant and rather 'muggy' by early January standards. Wind is swinging around to the south today at long last (!) but not for long, sad to say.  Meanwhile pleasant day in store as cloud clear up, afternoon clouds here and there with a small chance of showers mainly across the interior later this afternoon to early evening. Meanwhile...

TONIGHT - FRIDAY: Another powerful upper level trough is cranking east and south down the Central Plains with a very sharp frontal boundary developing ahead of it. The front will extend south well into the Central Gulf during the overnight with some thunderstorm convection developing along the southern bounds of it; cold air intrudes immediately behind the boundary at this stage.

Both the GFS and NAM imply the development of a pre-frontal boundary to develop ahead of the main front over night and more so as the system approaches Florida from the west through north.

Friday from Early Afternoon toward Sunset (West to East) 

The NAM is very aggressive with the wind shift associated with the prefrontal trough (hence, low level convergence) as well as the amount of surface based instability that will form over the state during the day tomorrow. The GFS takes a much more subtle approach to the whole matter and does not look impressed. The NAM does at times seem to be on steroids but if it pans out, wording in local forecasts might need to be 'hedged up' a few notches in the 'thunderstorm' category mainly for areas of Central   and North (especially for parts of Lake , Volusia and Seminole Counties) .For now, just a heads up otherwise:

SATURDAY: The cold front to move through the state after dark Friday night, post pre-frontal boundary. Though behind this front the air mass will not be like our former northern visitor of late, it will still be cool again. After that last go -around we'll be able to deal with the punches a bit better though (hopefully).

The next several days show mainly lows in the 40Fs and highs in lower to mid-60Fs with warmest over night along the immediate east coast after Sunday morning.

BUT THAT'S NOT ALL: Guidance leans now to no recovery before yet another boundary plows through further re-enforcing the situation. Enough is enough already? But it comes again, and if that's not enough another yet still! Make it stop.  How cold will it be getting next week?

So far, no fears, just cold enough to be irritating but not so cold that  a state wide emergency freeze looks possible; north and west of I-4 might be a different story though.

This cold weather should be expected though. We are, after-all, just entering the "bleak midwinter' (or best of the best depending on how one likes it) time of year through to about the last few days of January. Time sure seems to creep in colder weather .

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Friday, January 5, 2018

The Worst is Over - Slow But Sure "Warming" Overnight Saturday

Sunrise - January 6, 2017
TODAY: Chilly start to the morning, even colder than yesterday across North Florida. As of 6AM, for example, the temperature at Crestview is 20F with the Milton Naval Air Station at 21F;   Duke Field reads 22F and  Panama City sits at 23F, while Tallahassee basks in 27F right near Route 27. Orlando subs-out reading near the freezing mark, while the far east central coast is similar to yesterday with breezier conditions (unfortunately).

After the aforementioned cold start to the day not much change from yesterday other than sky conditions for mainly Central and South. Latest satellite imagery shows some cirrostratus (mid-high cloud type) approaching from the west (see below). How much they will thin out is uncertain (if at all). 

As is being shown now per viewing model guidance upper level moisture fields, however, they will encroach over the peninsula during the hours of what would normally be the peak heating hours, and as a result of that combined with the low sun angle this time of year, insolation will be minimized keeping afternoon highs down to similar to maybe a tad warmer than yesterday but not by all that much.

The flip side to these clouds, however, will be realized over-night tonight. That being, not as cold most areas. Latest official forecasts are holding on to the freezing temperatures but I'm not seeing it right now. Mostly seeing mid-upper 30Fs but along the immediate coast (Cape and South) looks more like lower - mid 40Fs as opposed to mid-upper 30Fs as was the case yesterday and this morning.

SATURDAY: Given the above, with slightly warmer temperatures (temps) overnight , we will have a slightly warmer start to the day as high clouds continue but are on the move out. 

Afternoon highs on Saturday should breach mid 50Fs with increasing sunshine (hopefully!) so that lower 60Fs to 'near 60F' will be realized from The Beach -Line (or 'Dead Central') and south, remaining cooler I-4 and north. Wind will also be decreasing for those at the coast where it continues to be effective much more than across inland areas where some areas are nearly calm.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: True warm up begins, first realized along the immediate east coast after midnight. Onshore component wind and modifying affects as it flows across warmer sea surface temperatures could lift the morning low up toward the mid 50Fs as highs breach the lower to mid 60Fs. Still below normal. Does not look like the high clouds will be around any longer either.

Sunday looks to be a very pleasant but still somewhat cool day. All in all, can pack up the heavy cold weather gear now for quite some time to come! (But keep out the cool weather gear).

MONDAY: Even warmer yet still. Morning lows at beaches closer to the lower 60Fs (can we hear mid 60Fs?), warmer even far Southeast Florida in the upper 60Fs to near 70F. Afternoon highs in the lower 70Fs as wind becomes Southeasterly in the 10 mph during the afternoon. 
January 8th looks to be a very nice day.

The time frame between MONDAY and TUESDAY has been a bone of contention in guidance for several days now. The GFS was showing a front to pass through sometime between early Tuesday morning, the 9th, to mid afternoon and most official forecasts bit on it, but alas, it is now slowing down across two consecutive runs on that frontal passage and coming into an agreement  with the ECMWF (European) model. 

Cloud cover will increase as will some rain chances, mainly far northwest Florida. Highs on Monday in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover with wind from the south but light.

TUESDAY: The 'new situation' at hand, at least as it stands now and given the trends of the GFS is for a rather sloppy ill defined frontal passage. Was watching for the risk of thunder, mainly South Half of state at some point between sunrise and set, and still watching for it, but low level instability is sorely lacking and the wind shear that 'could have' supported 'thunder' isn't sufficient to overcome the lack of instability. Other than a chance of showers (particularly south and far North Florida)...the trend is for highs again in the 70Fs and lows in the upper 50Fs interior to mid-60Fs east coast. Chances are there will be clouds around too.

BEYOND: The front slides across the state as it slowly drops south between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon now more as if in a west to east fashion and onshore flow immediately resumes control afterward. The end result is temperatures near normal in the afternoon and morning lows a bit above normal.

Said light onshore flow continues until the next chance of a frontal passage around the 14th - 16th time frame. In the winter, fronts go through on average ever 4-6 days, though up to a week is not unheard of either, while during the strongest cold weather events that go through transparently as frequently within 24 hours of each other, thus giving re-enforcing shots of cold air. 

As the jet stream pattern is being forecast to lift northward and become more 'zonal', meaning more of an east to west pattern with ripples in it rather than taking deep plunges from north to south, across the mid regions of the country, all things will come out in the wash as 'average' for quite a while if that is to be the case. The next cool spell seen in 'the crystal ball of uncertainty' is showing nothing more than, by comparison to the last few days, nothing more that a 'cool spell'.

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Monday, January 1, 2018

: Sleet - Wintry Mix with Wind Possibly Northeast Florida by Wednesday

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NOW: Cold front as of 11:30AM is passing south down Central Florida followed by the anticipated and rather abrupt up tick of cooler NNW-N wind on its heals. The front is anticipated to proceed only slowly south through the day toward far South Florida.

The warmest temperature of the day might well have already been realized across most parts of Central Florida or is about to be in regions north of Lake Okeechobee in the next few hours as it drops south. 

Coldest temperatures during the day will be along the Beach Line (Central Florida) and north and just a fraction of a few miles away from the immediate coast line south of southern Volusia County.

Temperatures across the beaches of Brevard might hold near steady in the lower 60Fs the rest of the day but a short journey west will reveal cooler air to be at hand. Cloudy skies to prevail all day in the increasingly unagreeable conditions , at least if one was anticipating a sunshiny romp in the surf, as satellite imagery clearly reveals the sky conditions further down stream heading across the state.

TONIGHT: Sky conditions remain cloudy and temperatures somewhat level off, especially near the exact coast line south of the cape where the wind will have acquired a slight onshore component if not parallel to the coast . Not expecting a huge drop in temperature therefore along and east of US1 south of the area around Oak Hill in southern Volusia County unless one is further inland. Even yet still, cloud cover will aid to 'blanket' the low levels to prevent a greater drop in over night temperatures.

TUESDAY: Hold status quo, possibly some light rain or drizzle will manifest near the beaches mainly Cape and south, more likely from near Ft Pierce and south (however). Brisk wind continues otherwise with cool temperatures. 

Again, not necessarily 'all so cold' with lows Tuesday morning upper 50Fs to near 60F but much colder inland and especially NW and N Florida, or along I-75 /Rte 27 east of Tampa Bay and west of Orlando northward.

WEDNESDAY: Secondary mid level impulse with yet another frontal boundary approaches North Florida. 

As is the case in 'too close to call  for marginal wintry situations', the temperatures not only at the surface but in the lower 5000 feet just above the surface combined are all critical determinant factors in the form in which precipitation will fall as this energies and accompanying moisture advect over the region - additionally whatever change in 'type' it might undergo as it falls is problematic for the forecast.

For now, looks like there could be a period of 'snow' somewhere east of Tallahassee toward Jacksonville and parts a bit south of there as well. If so, as things stand now, that would change over to sleet with time but it simply is too hard to say for certain on any regard. Guidance is in agreement though on quite cool to cold air with 'precipitation'...there is still question on the tempo-areal situation at had to make a definitive call.

Such conditions or rather 'threat of them'  appears to  commence early Wednesday morning  through the mid afternoon. The area to watch for said, 'wintry mess' (mix) is primarily North East Florida.

Further south, there is a chance of rainfall again but mainly very close to the immediate beach side areas from the Cape down toward Dade County. Wind continues from the NE in general gusting up to perhaps 28 mph or so at times with temperatures holding within 3 degrees either side of 60F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: Next cold front plunges southward down the state as deep and powerful low pressure area which will have formed near the northern Bahamas rapidly lifts up toward the North. Coastal Carolinas , perhaps even Coastal Georgia might be able to get a good snow event from this one contingent upon just exactly how close to the eastern U.S. Coast the entire' system' traverses. Close call , so the forecasters will be working their every pennies worth on this one no doubt for forecast accuracy.

THURSDAY MORNING - FRIDAY: Freezing to below freezing temperatures likely for parts of at least northern Lake County toward interior Western Volusia County and northward, with even mid-lower 20FS possible along I-10/panhandle region.

Gusting winds up to 25mph or so in some locations with lows near 36-40F east coast to lower to mid 30Fs interior Central, with highs it appears for Central in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs (colder north, a bit warmer south as usual). Would not be surprised though if Central Florida , especially North Central never cracks 50F degrees Thursday afternoon.

Coldest morning of the entire 'event' will either be Friday or Saturday morning, and will be experienced it appears somewhere along the Western Interior regions of the state. Highs on Friday lower 50Fs Central, mid 50Fs south, and mid-upper 40Fs North Florida. Wind will have decreased somewhat to the 15 mph range, though some inland areas in the morning hours will likely see much less wind than near the coast where mixing of the colder air will occur with the warmer air just above the intracoastal waterways

The GFS model is much milder in the forecast however, so this will continue to be monitored no doubt by official outlets. The NAM and the CMC models are much more aggressive with 'The Plunge' and extensive coverage of the colder air , as well as the 'degree' as to how cold it will get, varying by as much as 5-8 F degrees colder than the GFS. The 'Big Q' then is 'how low will it go?". Regardless, no matter which way one looks at it, the cold and wind will have arrived full frontal assault after midnight Wednesday night all through Friday into Friday evening.

SATURDAY: Wind will notably have decreased yet more as it  in by inch will be veering more toward NNE direction. Warmer air of the Atlantic notable even perhaps at the coast by morning as lows might be a good 10F degrees warmer there than previous mornings. The slow but sure 'warming' trend commences, but it will start out quite slow. 

Afternoon highs back into the lower 60Fs south of I-4, mid 60Fs parts of South Central Florida. Still below 'normal'.

SUNDAY: Again wind remains light and from the ENE-NE. Morning lows at the beaches this day could be even in mid-upper 50Fs (?) but colder the further west and north one traverses toward areas like Ocala and north. GFS shows a low, for instance , at the Cape of around 52F, but it might be warmer than that. Sunday afternoon could be seeing upper 60Fs however, which would be nearly 20F degrees warmer than say, Thursday's high temperature.

MONDAY: January 8th might be into the 70Fs as another front approaches. The jury is out for now as to when the next front will cross through. Either later on the 8th or the 9th is not certain. Impacts behind this boundary are not shown to be nearly as 'wrenched  as our upcoming few days later this week though, taking temperatures down to near to just below seasonal norms .

Seeing how this beyond reliability forecast range the pre-requisite ON The OTHER HAND must be mentioned: What happens beyond the 9th is of great uncertainty. The GFS is not consistent from one run to the next, nor does it agree with other models  which also are oscillating/ are behaving inconsistently.   For Example, one run might portray what appears would be a call for a prolonged warmer period,, but before one can even take their jacket off in anticipation of it, the next model run comes out and says, 'not so fast'. 

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