"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Showers / Thunder Possible Central/North Late - Above Normal Temperatures Continue

February 24 2014 - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Not much change from previous reasoning. Low level surface ridge axis across far South Florida combined with closest approach to the north of upper level trough will yield a general SSW flow aloft while sea breezes will still be permitted to become active. Slight surface based instability with very cool air aloft but with poor lapse rates in the mid levels could still yield some thunder where greatest upward forcing occurs late today toward interior Central/East Central up toward eastern portions of North Central (Volusia County) the vicinity of the west-east coast sea breeze collision zone where best surface based instability will also be present after a full day of heating. 

Otherwise, continued warm with temperatures averaging 10-15F degrees above climatological norms for this time of year. At this time of year in history past there has been historic freeze events (only to emphasize how varied one year can be from the next).

Best chance of showers will be approximately 10 miles from any coast "South to most of Central Florida" but with a working toward the immediate coast mainly from Central Brevard northward. A thunder might occur near the Lake Okeechobee / Sea Breeze collision boundary  South Central but the greater focus appears to be in the Orlando/Osceola County region to east side of Orlando, maybe even working toward I-95 Central Brevard most likely near to after dark. After sunset would 'expect' the activity would quickly dwindle (at least in regard to lightning chance) with some strangling in-cloud lightning aloft remaining a possibility with thunder audible some areas.

Activity could potentially work offshore Volusia County as thunder and rain showers from Central Brevard northward is not entirely out of the question.

Many areas will not see rain at all today but those that do it will be a welcome sight for days ahead appear to continue to be on the dry side, as would be generally expected this time of year.

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Dry most areas and continued warm. Best chance of showers or maybe some thunder mainly interior western parts of North Central up toward I-10. (Lake County, areas around Ocala, Gainesville). This will occur as the ridge axis currently far South Florida lifts toward North Florida putting the majority of the state under a light easterly flow pattern. Thus, coastal afternoon temperatures will continue to be greatly modified by cool air advection off the near shore Atlantic waters making for 10F or less degree variations between overnight temperatures and afternoon highs at the beaches.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Little change in temperatures with dry conditions. A frontal boundary to ease down the state in a rather  ' backdoor fashion ' will modify temperatures just a bit come Friday into Saturday time frame with little to no fanfare. Saturday might be a bit cooler with a recovery on Sunday at least as is currently being reflected by the GFS model. Even so, those cooler temperatures will still be above 'normal' and not below the 64F mark overnight (interior).

FURTHER OUT: Any big cold blasts from the past on the horizon? Yes and No. Very long range climactic model guidance has at times been showing 'much colder' coming into the first or second week of March which is questionable given how far out in time that projection is. It is not unusual to have a very cool to cold spell in the first half (at least ) of March, but usually they are rather short-lived. The trend, however, has been to ease off that potential.

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Saturday, February 10, 2018

Above "Normal' Temperatures Continues into Next Week / Chance of Central Thunder Sunday

"Jacob" (or Jake) near Port Canaveral Jetty - 2015 Early February
TODAY: Not much discernible change in the overall weather scheme other than rising dew-points. Early Saturday morning dew-points near the east coast were in the upper 60Fs to near 70Fs. 

With increased moisture will be an increased 'mugginess' especially notable in the mornings for some time to come. 

Afternoon highs west of US1 in the lower 80Fs with highs approaching the mid-80Fs in more interior locations possible almost anywhere. Coolest afternoon highs near the immediate coast, depending on how long before the east coast sea breeze sets in, but in general beaches will see upper 70Fs until that time, at which point they will go down as wind blows across ocean temperatures now running in the mid 60Fs.

Elsewhere, a frontal boundary stretched SW to NE across the Deep South will set the stage for wide spread rain and cloud cover, with some thunder possible mostly across the West Half to Third of the Florida Panhandle later today / tonight.

SUNDAY: Again, not much change as frontal boundary begins to stall before reaching Florida. Wind will be more southerly and light, though with the upper trough making it's closest 'approach' to the Peninsula mid-level winds will have gained  more of a SW to NE steering flow. 

The east coast sea breeze will work inland but may not much make it more than 30-40 miles inland of the east coast (South of I-4) 

Best convergence of sea breezes with light to moderate surface based instability could yield boundary driven showers and maybe even some thunder 'somewhere' within the region shown below. 

The best chance of thunder will be very close to the region of low level surface temperature contrasts which will be ahead of the sea breeze, thus over the 'interior' in general. With the steering from SSW-SW toward the east coast some activity might be able to reach even the beaches toward to after dark. The risk of 'thunder' by that time might be minimal as low - mid level lapse rates look quite week, not strong enough to support updrafts as is currently being shown. Surface based instability (CAPE) will be running around 1000 j/kg (compare to summer months when it runs between 2800 - 4000 j/kg). Additionally, any shower or storm activity approaching the east coast will be riding over much cooler surface temperatures (courtesy of the cool ocean temperatures) which likely would put the kibosh on any activity attempting to reach the coast.

The NAM model is not nearly as generous with the 'rain coverage', showing a storm closer toward interior Volusia County and others possible more toward SW Florida. On the other hand, the GFS has consistently been favoring 'mainly' south of I4 toward the interior with a drift to the immediate east coast after dark.

So for now, just drew an 'overall and in general' image for where rain/thunder might occur late Sunday into the evening.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Little change in overall temperature scheme, with the interior (or region west of US1) much warmer than the 'immediate beach' going into mid-later afternoon once sea breezes develop. 

Warmest temperatures likely 20 miles from any coast, not to say that all areas won't  be a bit above normal. If there is to be any 'records' broken, morning warm minimums   seem more likely, especially at the beaches; however, since the officially recorded locations that establish the norms/records in those locations are non-existent there will be no way to know if indeed, record warm minimums have been set at the beaches, so we'll have to rely on other sparsely official sites such as Melbourne / Ft Pierce / Vero Beach (at least as far as the east coast is concerned). Otherwise, afternoon maxes will be a challenge. In past years we have seen upper 80Fs set as records going back up to 60 years ago. Regardless...

Chance of shower or even thunder  continues for a region north of I-4 such as in Lake County up toward the Ocala Region (interior North Central to NW Interior Florida) Monday or both days.

MIDWEEK - FRIDAY: Dryer weather with little to no chance of rain with temperatures continuing as already discussed. 

Though a front may will slide down the state  Wednesday no rain is anticipated with it, and only slight cooling will be noticed from it, especially on Thursday morning; even so, morning lows will still be in the lower -mid 60Fs for areas at the beaches Central Florida and south with the interiors noticing more of the 'drop' which will still result in above normal morning lows.

Quick recovery on temperatures though 'alqd ' (All Quadrants) come Friday.

Latest guidance now shows it could be warmer even into all of next weekend, but previous guidance was not so generous. 

Too far out to say for now.

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Thursday, January 11, 2018

Slight Chance of Storms Tomorrow - Bleak Midwinter Next Week

Sunrise, January 10 , 2018 Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant and rather 'muggy' by early January standards. Wind is swinging around to the south today at long last (!) but not for long, sad to say.  Meanwhile pleasant day in store as cloud clear up, afternoon clouds here and there with a small chance of showers mainly across the interior later this afternoon to early evening. Meanwhile...

TONIGHT - FRIDAY: Another powerful upper level trough is cranking east and south down the Central Plains with a very sharp frontal boundary developing ahead of it. The front will extend south well into the Central Gulf during the overnight with some thunderstorm convection developing along the southern bounds of it; cold air intrudes immediately behind the boundary at this stage.

Both the GFS and NAM imply the development of a pre-frontal boundary to develop ahead of the main front over night and more so as the system approaches Florida from the west through north.

Friday from Early Afternoon toward Sunset (West to East) 

The NAM is very aggressive with the wind shift associated with the prefrontal trough (hence, low level convergence) as well as the amount of surface based instability that will form over the state during the day tomorrow. The GFS takes a much more subtle approach to the whole matter and does not look impressed. The NAM does at times seem to be on steroids but if it pans out, wording in local forecasts might need to be 'hedged up' a few notches in the 'thunderstorm' category mainly for areas of Central   and North (especially for parts of Lake , Volusia and Seminole Counties) .For now, just a heads up otherwise:

SATURDAY: The cold front to move through the state after dark Friday night, post pre-frontal boundary. Though behind this front the air mass will not be like our former northern visitor of late, it will still be cool again. After that last go -around we'll be able to deal with the punches a bit better though (hopefully).

The next several days show mainly lows in the 40Fs and highs in lower to mid-60Fs with warmest over night along the immediate east coast after Sunday morning.

BUT THAT'S NOT ALL: Guidance leans now to no recovery before yet another boundary plows through further re-enforcing the situation. Enough is enough already? But it comes again, and if that's not enough another yet still! Make it stop.  How cold will it be getting next week?

So far, no fears, just cold enough to be irritating but not so cold that  a state wide emergency freeze looks possible; north and west of I-4 might be a different story though.

This cold weather should be expected though. We are, after-all, just entering the "bleak midwinter' (or best of the best depending on how one likes it) time of year through to about the last few days of January. Time sure seems to creep in colder weather .

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Friday, January 5, 2018

The Worst is Over - Slow But Sure "Warming" Overnight Saturday

Sunrise - January 6, 2017
TODAY: Chilly start to the morning, even colder than yesterday across North Florida. As of 6AM, for example, the temperature at Crestview is 20F with the Milton Naval Air Station at 21F;   Duke Field reads 22F and  Panama City sits at 23F, while Tallahassee basks in 27F right near Route 27. Orlando subs-out reading near the freezing mark, while the far east central coast is similar to yesterday with breezier conditions (unfortunately).

After the aforementioned cold start to the day not much change from yesterday other than sky conditions for mainly Central and South. Latest satellite imagery shows some cirrostratus (mid-high cloud type) approaching from the west (see below). How much they will thin out is uncertain (if at all). 

As is being shown now per viewing model guidance upper level moisture fields, however, they will encroach over the peninsula during the hours of what would normally be the peak heating hours, and as a result of that combined with the low sun angle this time of year, insolation will be minimized keeping afternoon highs down to similar to maybe a tad warmer than yesterday but not by all that much.

The flip side to these clouds, however, will be realized over-night tonight. That being, not as cold most areas. Latest official forecasts are holding on to the freezing temperatures but I'm not seeing it right now. Mostly seeing mid-upper 30Fs but along the immediate coast (Cape and South) looks more like lower - mid 40Fs as opposed to mid-upper 30Fs as was the case yesterday and this morning.

SATURDAY: Given the above, with slightly warmer temperatures (temps) overnight , we will have a slightly warmer start to the day as high clouds continue but are on the move out. 

Afternoon highs on Saturday should breach mid 50Fs with increasing sunshine (hopefully!) so that lower 60Fs to 'near 60F' will be realized from The Beach -Line (or 'Dead Central') and south, remaining cooler I-4 and north. Wind will also be decreasing for those at the coast where it continues to be effective much more than across inland areas where some areas are nearly calm.

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: True warm up begins, first realized along the immediate east coast after midnight. Onshore component wind and modifying affects as it flows across warmer sea surface temperatures could lift the morning low up toward the mid 50Fs as highs breach the lower to mid 60Fs. Still below normal. Does not look like the high clouds will be around any longer either.

Sunday looks to be a very pleasant but still somewhat cool day. All in all, can pack up the heavy cold weather gear now for quite some time to come! (But keep out the cool weather gear).

MONDAY: Even warmer yet still. Morning lows at beaches closer to the lower 60Fs (can we hear mid 60Fs?), warmer even far Southeast Florida in the upper 60Fs to near 70F. Afternoon highs in the lower 70Fs as wind becomes Southeasterly in the 10 mph during the afternoon. 
January 8th looks to be a very nice day.

The time frame between MONDAY and TUESDAY has been a bone of contention in guidance for several days now. The GFS was showing a front to pass through sometime between early Tuesday morning, the 9th, to mid afternoon and most official forecasts bit on it, but alas, it is now slowing down across two consecutive runs on that frontal passage and coming into an agreement  with the ECMWF (European) model. 

Cloud cover will increase as will some rain chances, mainly far northwest Florida. Highs on Monday in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover with wind from the south but light.

TUESDAY: The 'new situation' at hand, at least as it stands now and given the trends of the GFS is for a rather sloppy ill defined frontal passage. Was watching for the risk of thunder, mainly South Half of state at some point between sunrise and set, and still watching for it, but low level instability is sorely lacking and the wind shear that 'could have' supported 'thunder' isn't sufficient to overcome the lack of instability. Other than a chance of showers (particularly south and far North Florida)...the trend is for highs again in the 70Fs and lows in the upper 50Fs interior to mid-60Fs east coast. Chances are there will be clouds around too.

BEYOND: The front slides across the state as it slowly drops south between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon now more as if in a west to east fashion and onshore flow immediately resumes control afterward. The end result is temperatures near normal in the afternoon and morning lows a bit above normal.

Said light onshore flow continues until the next chance of a frontal passage around the 14th - 16th time frame. In the winter, fronts go through on average ever 4-6 days, though up to a week is not unheard of either, while during the strongest cold weather events that go through transparently as frequently within 24 hours of each other, thus giving re-enforcing shots of cold air. 

As the jet stream pattern is being forecast to lift northward and become more 'zonal', meaning more of an east to west pattern with ripples in it rather than taking deep plunges from north to south, across the mid regions of the country, all things will come out in the wash as 'average' for quite a while if that is to be the case. The next cool spell seen in 'the crystal ball of uncertainty' is showing nothing more than, by comparison to the last few days, nothing more that a 'cool spell'.

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Monday, January 1, 2018

: Sleet - Wintry Mix with Wind Possibly Northeast Florida by Wednesday

Add caption
NOW: Cold front as of 11:30AM is passing south down Central Florida followed by the anticipated and rather abrupt up tick of cooler NNW-N wind on its heals. The front is anticipated to proceed only slowly south through the day toward far South Florida.

The warmest temperature of the day might well have already been realized across most parts of Central Florida or is about to be in regions north of Lake Okeechobee in the next few hours as it drops south. 

Coldest temperatures during the day will be along the Beach Line (Central Florida) and north and just a fraction of a few miles away from the immediate coast line south of southern Volusia County.

Temperatures across the beaches of Brevard might hold near steady in the lower 60Fs the rest of the day but a short journey west will reveal cooler air to be at hand. Cloudy skies to prevail all day in the increasingly unagreeable conditions , at least if one was anticipating a sunshiny romp in the surf, as satellite imagery clearly reveals the sky conditions further down stream heading across the state.

TONIGHT: Sky conditions remain cloudy and temperatures somewhat level off, especially near the exact coast line south of the cape where the wind will have acquired a slight onshore component if not parallel to the coast . Not expecting a huge drop in temperature therefore along and east of US1 south of the area around Oak Hill in southern Volusia County unless one is further inland. Even yet still, cloud cover will aid to 'blanket' the low levels to prevent a greater drop in over night temperatures.

TUESDAY: Hold status quo, possibly some light rain or drizzle will manifest near the beaches mainly Cape and south, more likely from near Ft Pierce and south (however). Brisk wind continues otherwise with cool temperatures. 

Again, not necessarily 'all so cold' with lows Tuesday morning upper 50Fs to near 60F but much colder inland and especially NW and N Florida, or along I-75 /Rte 27 east of Tampa Bay and west of Orlando northward.

WEDNESDAY: Secondary mid level impulse with yet another frontal boundary approaches North Florida. 

As is the case in 'too close to call  for marginal wintry situations', the temperatures not only at the surface but in the lower 5000 feet just above the surface combined are all critical determinant factors in the form in which precipitation will fall as this energies and accompanying moisture advect over the region - additionally whatever change in 'type' it might undergo as it falls is problematic for the forecast.

For now, looks like there could be a period of 'snow' somewhere east of Tallahassee toward Jacksonville and parts a bit south of there as well. If so, as things stand now, that would change over to sleet with time but it simply is too hard to say for certain on any regard. Guidance is in agreement though on quite cool to cold air with 'precipitation'...there is still question on the tempo-areal situation at had to make a definitive call.

Such conditions or rather 'threat of them'  appears to  commence early Wednesday morning  through the mid afternoon. The area to watch for said, 'wintry mess' (mix) is primarily North East Florida.

Further south, there is a chance of rainfall again but mainly very close to the immediate beach side areas from the Cape down toward Dade County. Wind continues from the NE in general gusting up to perhaps 28 mph or so at times with temperatures holding within 3 degrees either side of 60F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: Next cold front plunges southward down the state as deep and powerful low pressure area which will have formed near the northern Bahamas rapidly lifts up toward the North. Coastal Carolinas , perhaps even Coastal Georgia might be able to get a good snow event from this one contingent upon just exactly how close to the eastern U.S. Coast the entire' system' traverses. Close call , so the forecasters will be working their every pennies worth on this one no doubt for forecast accuracy.

THURSDAY MORNING - FRIDAY: Freezing to below freezing temperatures likely for parts of at least northern Lake County toward interior Western Volusia County and northward, with even mid-lower 20FS possible along I-10/panhandle region.

Gusting winds up to 25mph or so in some locations with lows near 36-40F east coast to lower to mid 30Fs interior Central, with highs it appears for Central in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs (colder north, a bit warmer south as usual). Would not be surprised though if Central Florida , especially North Central never cracks 50F degrees Thursday afternoon.

Coldest morning of the entire 'event' will either be Friday or Saturday morning, and will be experienced it appears somewhere along the Western Interior regions of the state. Highs on Friday lower 50Fs Central, mid 50Fs south, and mid-upper 40Fs North Florida. Wind will have decreased somewhat to the 15 mph range, though some inland areas in the morning hours will likely see much less wind than near the coast where mixing of the colder air will occur with the warmer air just above the intracoastal waterways

The GFS model is much milder in the forecast however, so this will continue to be monitored no doubt by official outlets. The NAM and the CMC models are much more aggressive with 'The Plunge' and extensive coverage of the colder air , as well as the 'degree' as to how cold it will get, varying by as much as 5-8 F degrees colder than the GFS. The 'Big Q' then is 'how low will it go?". Regardless, no matter which way one looks at it, the cold and wind will have arrived full frontal assault after midnight Wednesday night all through Friday into Friday evening.

SATURDAY: Wind will notably have decreased yet more as it  in by inch will be veering more toward NNE direction. Warmer air of the Atlantic notable even perhaps at the coast by morning as lows might be a good 10F degrees warmer there than previous mornings. The slow but sure 'warming' trend commences, but it will start out quite slow. 

Afternoon highs back into the lower 60Fs south of I-4, mid 60Fs parts of South Central Florida. Still below 'normal'.

SUNDAY: Again wind remains light and from the ENE-NE. Morning lows at the beaches this day could be even in mid-upper 50Fs (?) but colder the further west and north one traverses toward areas like Ocala and north. GFS shows a low, for instance , at the Cape of around 52F, but it might be warmer than that. Sunday afternoon could be seeing upper 60Fs however, which would be nearly 20F degrees warmer than say, Thursday's high temperature.

MONDAY: January 8th might be into the 70Fs as another front approaches. The jury is out for now as to when the next front will cross through. Either later on the 8th or the 9th is not certain. Impacts behind this boundary are not shown to be nearly as 'wrenched  as our upcoming few days later this week though, taking temperatures down to near to just below seasonal norms .

Seeing how this beyond reliability forecast range the pre-requisite ON The OTHER HAND must be mentioned: What happens beyond the 9th is of great uncertainty. The GFS is not consistent from one run to the next, nor does it agree with other models  which also are oscillating/ are behaving inconsistently.   For Example, one run might portray what appears would be a call for a prolonged warmer period,, but before one can even take their jacket off in anticipation of it, the next model run comes out and says, 'not so fast'. 

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