Shot Of Severe Possible Monday - "Extended Very Cool Period" Follows

 

Blog Post Forecast ONLY

(Risk of 'Strong to Severe Storms Associated with Strong Wind Gusts over 55mph -

Most Activity will fall 'below' severe (damaging) thresholds)

Rest of the Weekend

No change for previous days. Increasing cloud cover from North to South possible

over night. Sunday morning across Central will likely dawn with more clouds than recent Clear Mornings and as such morning low temperatures will also be 'warmer' (near 70F possible) as opposed

to the 'mid-upper 60Fs'. No real chance of rain foreseen south of I4 on Sunday with the cloud cover which might get 'extensive' late in the day especially. It will become most evident as the sun gets much lower in the sky (as it has been continually doing now seeming every day).

Monday

Cold front to cross all of Central From I-4 and South

During the course of time since the previous post model guidance (at least the NAM and GFS) has come to much closer agreement in regard to THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

The 'Timing" has slowed down 'CONSIDERABLY" from the previous post from 'Early Monday morning' to now Late in the Afternoon (at least as far as the Florida east coast South of I4 is concerned).

For example, what looked like an 8AM frontal passage for 'East Central Florida" is now

forecast to occur closer toward 6PM Monday evening (!) Thankfully, then - we won't be wasting Day Light with Cold Weather moving in (albeit, we could be seeing a lot of cloud cover and some storm activity moving in). 

Most likely the Lake - Orange-Seminole-Volusia County areas will see rain chances pick up with Strong (possibly severe storms) anytime from around 10AM through about 3PM - that risk then progresses east and southward to East Central and South Central prior to and during sunset hours. Granted with all the cloud cover it's going to be 'looking pretty dark out any way hours prior to actual sunset'. 

Beyond the risk for rain and strong/severe wind rainfall TOTALS do not look very large at all (IF at all in some areas) due to the quick storm motion (strong shear aloft and we'll have a 100 KNOT JET Stream overhead while the 'storms are going on).

MONDAY OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY

Colder and MUCH drier air will swiftly find headway behind the cold front. It will be EASILY Discernible if you are out side that (when) the front has gone through. 

The temperature drop will be noticeable but not radical. Either way, morning lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to near 50F (a good 20 degrees colder than all these previous mornings) will be no picnic when coupled with very brisk winds gusting to around 24-28mph if you are out and about.

Very Cool All Day Tuesday and would not be surprised if most areas of Central and North Central do not even reach 60F . Expecting highs in mid-upper 50Fs for the most part except Far South Central/South Florida.

WEDNESDAY MORNING

Likely the coldest morning of the next few however, wind will quickly wane after dark Tuesday evening. High pressure at the lower levels will be moving overhead and the pressure gradient as such to decrease significantly. Wednesday might dawn with winds generally less than or near 5mph (esp. inland); I suspect there will be a wind along the beaches/barrier island because of the 'yet warmer near shore and river temperatures" alone - the warmer waters can produce a breeze even apart from any pressure gradients this time of year. Hence, there might still be a 'wind chill effect' at the beaches even if it's not as literally 'cold' at those locations.

WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH-

FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SEVERE AGAIN

QUICK warm up noticeable Wednesday afternoon, 

with another front / Storm System on the way.

Warmer both on Wednesday and Thursday morning-afternoon with details to follow.

Another storm system might be in the making for  the Eastern GULF of Mexico

to impact most of Florida by Friday (or Thursday night even) This storm system (if it forms) has it appears now to have a greater potential to produce severe weather than the up and coming one

Winter Weather: "It's Coming..." (Soon)

 

"It's Coming!"

TODAY - SATURDAY: Not much in the next few days to speak of other than 'moderating temperatures 'and pleasant. There might be a chance of showers (especially near the coast late overnight tonight) but otherwise pleasantly seasonal to slightly above seasonal norms (especially inland away from the ocean). Light, mostly ENE wind shifting more toward the southeast in the next few days with nearly clear to partly cloudy skies due to marine stratocumulus clouds coming in off the Atlantic near shore waters, effective from the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

SUNDAY: Cold front in the panhandle approaches 'down state' late in the day to overnight. There might be a risk of strong to severe storms across all of the panhandle in association with the front (however), and though shear overhead will be strong over all of Central Florida instability looks to be meager to non-existent and mostly due to speed rather than directional shear, which would normally equate to 'windy rainshowers' in the absence of instability at the lower levels.

MONDAY: Timing is still in question as to exactly when the full -fledged front will complete it's translation down the state. The time frame being anywhere from late Monday to mid-day Tuesday (as it stands now). Going for the most recent GFS release the front will go through on Monday morning but the driest air lags behind a good 12 hours or more. Suspect that model will pull it's act together a bit better in future days and resolve itself to a complete fropa (Frontal Passage) to occur on MONDAY completely. 

Either way, based on the timing of the GFS (other models aside) the first COLD MORNING of Winter 2020-2021 would be NEXT TUESDAY. Lows anywhere in North Central to Central Florida in the lower 40Fs through to near 50F and across the 30Fs over North Florida, and as you might expect, Windy at the same time. 

This will be a 'Shock to the System" type of frontal passage as all first true cold frontal passages tend to be over the state early in the season. We will have just gone through highs in the lower (to even some mid-80Fs) for several days in a row all through the Thanksgiving Weekend  so  a sudden 20-30F degrees temperature drop isn't exactly a yawn to experience.

Even Tuesday afternoon is  showing up to not even reach 60F but rather mid-upper 50Fs. Will this change? My guess is yes. The GFS sometimes (or even frequently) over-blows cold air intrusions beyond day 4 and we are still talking a week away. No matter how you slice it though the model has been consistent for several days that "It's Coming!" (in some form or another). And from the looks of it this first front may not by any means be the end of it, but rather only the HERALD of things to come a few days later (as if once was not enough).

For now, and chances are THIS PART ESPECIALLY WILL CHANGE, the model indicates a rapid recovery going into Wednesday-Thursday with yet another system approaching and perhaps again a risk of severe weather mainly due to wind shear (which again might not amount to much other than 'windy rain showers". 

It's the next reinforcing 'blast' that will fully assert if there was any question about it that indeed winter is on the door step --  for by Thursday into Friday and for SEVERAL DAYS beyond we will be seeing temperature below to much below 'normal' with another frontal passage. 

So the gist of this post without going into details was for a 'heads up'...we have MUCH to be THANKFUL FOR this year (and always)...Grace came and comes at a Very High Price for us -- with every breath even - but that doesn't preclude that weather comes too with it's own form of Highs and Lows. 

Unfortunately, tis the season for uncomfortable lows rather than unpleasant Highs (of summer).

BETA Version of ETAs Possible Impacts - Mainly Late Tonight - Monday

 

High Speed Dirt's 'Forecast' Tornado Risk Areas

for Tonight - Monday

TODAY: Little change from yesterday's post - ETA is emerging off the North Central Cuban Coast late this morning. Weakening occurred over the mountainous terrain but strengthening and organization even further highly expected throughout the day and into this evening, early Monday.

RAIN CHANCES: Given the weakening of system and latest data showing a sharp demarcation line of very moist atmosphere to not nearly as much (nor as deep) expect that most rain today at least in any true measurable amounts will remain over mainly South and far South Central Florida. There could be a few quick sprinkles further north, but for the most part today looks to be a 'status quo with what you got now as of late morning' situation until ETA gets reorganized AND begins to expand its wind field which is still anticipated going into mid-evening tonight through mid-morning Monday.

Expecting the rain chances to almost 'suddenly emerge' into South Central but more specifically from near Ft Pierce northward to North Brevard County after 2-3 AM tonight, with a more discrete/heavier rainstorm/squall quality/nature to it rather than as a predominant rain shield as is currently at play. 

This change in nature (if of course it occurs) would be due to a nocturnal wind max in the mid-levels combined with the storm's expanding wind field in the 2000-7000 ft. level above ground adding to helicity and shear as this occurs. 

Discrete cells thus will be more likely mid evening tonight (South Florida and moreso  toward the wee-hours post-midnight tonight -- especially where the 5000 ft level winds expand/radiate outward from at least Ft Pierce if not further north than that. Thus, for folks north of Ft Pierce the more likely time for this storm activity we've all been hearing about emerges well after midnight but prior to sunrise, Monday.

It is possible storms will acquire rotation coming in off the warm  Atlantic water mainly from the Brevard /Volusia County line southward toward Ft Pierce during the course of events. Further south toward West Palm and south  the same can be said to occur (more likely) after sunset tonight through midnight.

PLEASE NOTE: This is only a blog post - and not official. Hence, below is the 'Official Forecast" from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for 'today's' tornado risk area. Also note, the SPC has NO TORNADO RISK (as of now) for any other areas other than what is shown below. They show NO RISK for Monday over Central Florida. In fact, for Monday they only show a small area across far Southwest Florida - that is a big difference worth nothing from what this blog post is reading.

  

This image above shows SPC's Forecast for TODAY (in green) for 'Tornado Probability'

The HSD Forecast is that this area will begin to validate AFTER 8pm tonight or thereabouts,

mainly for far SOUTHWEST Florida then spread out as we approach midnight and thereafter.

The 'RED AREA" shown is the HSD Forecast as a result for late tonight going into MONDAY

with the area from Ft. Pierce and north more likely after 3AM and into Brevard by 5AM and thereafter into the afternoon.

The only change from yesterday's post was to remove areas further north than Southern Volusia County from the 'Risk Area"

Otherwise, strongest wind gusts/wind in general will likely be restricted to  near or over discrete rain cells/squalls. Outside the 'storms' winds will more than likely remain in the 15-30mph range including where the rain takes on a more 'shielded region' form rather than smaller discrete rain storms.

Strongest winds right along the coast will increase for South Central to Central LATE today (more notably) into early evening and remain steady and even increase more steady state going into after midnight coincident with the increased tornado risk. Again, all due to the expanding wind fields as the storm starts to interact with the Florida Peninsula's land mass.

WHEN WILL IT ALL BE OVER? It appears the 'worst of it all' will be on Monday. Thereafter the pressure gradient between ETA and high pressure to the north is to decrease even as ETA weakens (at least temporarily). Going into Monday the bulk of the storm should be over the Southeast Gulf, perhaps infringing upon the far Southwest Florida Coast.  There is still a lot to be said for the 'future cast' of ETAs  - so this post will avoid going into details that won't verify anyway.

Point being, as far as all of Central Florida is concerned , after Monday the wind overall will be much weaker than will be experienced today into Monday -and rain chances will also decrease (but not entirely). Rain could remain in the forecast into Tuesday, and perhaps we'll have to watch for a small tornado risk at least early Tuesday for some area yet to be revealed. Much depends on the storms future which varies in models anywhere from it becoming a hurricane to nothing more than a weak tropical depression...and where it goes is another 'Big If'...will it cross the state? If so, it could go anywhere from Central Florida to the panhandle, or simply remain over the Gulf and weaken.

Otherwise, temperatures to remain at to slightly above normal (especially overnight) through all of next week and rain chances decrease.

Will The "Elusive Tropical Anomaly" (ETA) be a SWAK Threat ( or "Where's The Rain-X?) !"

 

Developing ETA South Of Cuba Saturday Afternoon , November 7 2020

 

By now all are well aware that a 'Tropical Threat" is encroaching upon Florida later this weekend into early next week. For all official forecasts please refer to the National Hurricane Center   for latest information regard ETA and/or the local National Weather Forecast Office for your location.

To eliminate repetition of what all the forecast offices will be putting out and already are, this post will be relatively brief but also mention a few points that might not yet have made mainstream or unofficial outlets   

For "EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA" (specifically),  based on current timing of multiple model output consensus in general, the heaviest weather overall and onset  of it will begin over The Keys and Far South Florida  then progressively work north with time going into late Sunday - Over Night Sunday Night - and into Monday (most specifically for North Central and Parts of North Florida as far north possibly as even the JAX area on Monday and/or even Tuesday.

The Blog Post will make one observation (though not-official) and that is as you watch forecasts on 'TV" or other sources, realize that the 'worst of the weather' at times will NOT necessarily be near the central circulation (or whatever one might call an 'eye' ). 

IN fact, there is data output which indicates that the stormiest points at certain times might be well more than 200NM from the Center. For example, when/if  'ETA" were to be centered just west of Ft Myers (as an example) the worst of the weather could be occurring along the Coast of Brevard County, which brings up another point. All in all, the strongest surface wind associated with ETA appears will occur at the immediate coast from near Vero Beach and south, with gusts up to and exceeding 55MPH possible, with the secondary area of 'not quite as strong at times' extending as far north as near the Volusia/Brevard County line. So far, Brevard County is being 'pegged' in more than one instance as a 'potential' for gusts will above 55mph due to the wind that would develop at the 2000-5000 ft level above ground come post Midnight Sunday night into the first half of Monday as the storm's girth increases, especially after sunrise Monday.

Likewise, the largest storm rainfall totals from beginning to end of this event will be near to 50 NM of the east coast in about the same areas. That is not to say there could be isolated 'events/locations' further north or west as well.

Overall, based on current trends - ETA will be making it's greatest impacts all day SUNDAY (far South Florida) and then working northward overnight Sunday night into Monday. The most volatile (and unfortunately most dangerous time) based on current model out put will be from near 9PM Sunday night through to near Sunrise Monday morning from Far South Brevard county to near West Palm Beach.  Areas further north in Brevard would also see some 'active' weather in isolated storm cells PRIOR to SUNRISE Monday; however,  the bulk of the greatest impacts north of Sebastian Inlet would be during daylight hours Monday...of course, there is a 'timing issue' and has the chance of being 'highly variable' and changing over the course of the next 18-30 hours. Therefore, the 'timing indicated' in this post is for 'example' only.

 

    ETA will be the 29th  'Recognized' Storm System'  ever to occur in the month of November within 300 NM of Cocoa Beach, Florida.  

Also note that it will be the FIRST OF THESE STORMS to take a track that crossed Cuba then takes a LEFT TURN. As can be seen in the image below, all previously known tracks show storms lifting north and curving to the right

In regard to ETA and Central/North Florida - the heaviest weather from ETA appears will occur when the Storms Central Circulation (per latest official forecast track) is over or near the keys to  approximately 120 NM  west or northwest of Ft Myers , that's assuming the storm takes the forecast track.

Pay not too close attention the storms CENTER ! ..higher winds at lower levels of the atmosphere from 2000-5000 feet above ground could be just asstrong , if not stronger well away from the Center  , especially Sunday night going into Monday (assuming the forecast track holds). These winds could work to the surface in areas of rain bands resulting in SQUALL GUSTS of 70mph + (this is 'worst case scenario' type stuff)  I expect there will be large differences between the sustained winds vs. GUSTS during the time of heavier rain squalls or storms, especially on MONDAY.

This brings up the other "ISSUE" from the Blogger's Standpoint. 

That being The High Speed Dirt concern - or, in this case more like  Speeding Water of Another Kind (SWAK)

TORNADO RISK

All available data from the 4KM NAM, HRRR and GEFS shows that there will be a TORNADO risk and at times a possibly significant one from low topped tornadic supercell structures within or even apart from incoming squalls. Isolated , rotating storms appear will be most likely from the Keys along the east coast to about 50 miles inland especially OVERNIGHT Sunday night along eastern portions of South and South Central.  This risk could extend (based on current timing) as far north as Southern/Central Brevard County. But again realize, TIMING of all things referred to in this post is subject to change, which will mostly likely be the case. 

Bear in mind that The TORNADO RISK  at times could be FAR from the storm's Center 

For example, if ETA were to be 20 Miles west of Ft Myers the biggest tornado threat might be near the Kennedy Space Center (!), that far away, yes. That is due to the fact that as mentioned earlier, there will be sufficient low level bulk -shear and accompanying 'helicity' in the same levels, COUPLED WITH heat from the near shore Atlantic Water providing for some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). So we'll have 'CAPE" plus 'HELICITY" and BULK SHEAR" ..  all occurring within the lowest levels of the atmosphere.   There could be, thus, LAND FALLING TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS or flat out tornadoes when they develop over land.

Looking above: The Greater Tornado Risk (working from South to North will be along the Florida east coast to up to 20-40 NM inland south of South Brevard PRIOR to sunrise, Monday morning, then from that point on the risk increases esp. after 10AM-11AM MONDAY as 'daylight' hours will provide additionally HEATING and the mid level winds begin to expand around the central circulation.

  

Will such activity actually occur though? Whether it ACTUALLY does or not, it looks rather certain that we will at least by hearing Tornado Warnings being issued (if not many of them) from Miami Northward possibly as far north as The JAX NWS office.

 Time to put THE RAIN-X on your Car and pull in the yard furniture and other outside things and be prepared for POWER OUTAGES in some areas and in some more prone areas (especially South Florida), flooding.

 At this point, 'storm surge' does not appear will be too much an issue THOUGH high tides will be running 'VERY HIGH" and could result in beach erosion, the rivers could also come up higher than normal ...

More to come ..another post will be made TOMORROW ...by then, we can monitor SEVERAL more runs of all available models I have access to - and also Follow THE TREND each model takes. This blog will be watching mainly the TORNADO RISK as the other information is posted FAR AND WIDE over the Media and made available most Readily over the internet from multiple sources, both official and unofficial.