tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6376837187987969802024-03-13T01:21:52.545-04:00 Sky SanctumsFlorida Weather Forecast Musings, Photos, and Discourses Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.comBlogger1419125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-69565695212086903352022-08-12T13:05:00.001-04:002022-08-12T13:05:40.610-04:00Big Pattern Change ! Summer Storms toward the East Coast <p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwY6vSalpeSygZHVROoKiu_kNmVvYDseXJhiibN8FSVaiKxfuswqGoMpunp72LAdZsC-07Q6lNaprOeiSnx5bmoQCuyNgV9ABcUAj8qQIJN-p5DZCIAUv6qnFWlv5zgM_aCiDboi_4vkHGOq6CqiuP2kd30av1BNdULdRua4f2yapX7ZuJl63x9Pbwxg/s1142/blog812.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="1142" height="395" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwY6vSalpeSygZHVROoKiu_kNmVvYDseXJhiibN8FSVaiKxfuswqGoMpunp72LAdZsC-07Q6lNaprOeiSnx5bmoQCuyNgV9ABcUAj8qQIJN-p5DZCIAUv6qnFWlv5zgM_aCiDboi_4vkHGOq6CqiuP2kd30av1BNdULdRua4f2yapX7ZuJl63x9Pbwxg/w630-h395/blog812.jpg" width="630" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>PRELUDE </u></b>- Friday: BIG Pattern change will in process throughout today and into Saturday </span><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">from the pattern we have been in for the majority of Summer 2022, so this is a 'big deal' for folks </span><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">living along and on the immediate Florida East Coast south of Daytona Beach toward West Palm Beach (mainly).</span></p><p><b style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><u>SYNOPTIC SITUATION:</u> </b><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">An 'upper level low and accompanying trough will be forming near to over the Great Lakes region during the next couple of days and 'dig' southward in the next couple of days.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The immediate effect on Florida will be to shift the '<b><i>STORM STEERING WINDS"</i></b> from what they have been which has been from east to the west coast to the other way around, from the west TOWARD the East Coast. <b>Most of this summer we have not had storm steering toward the east coast</b> except for on a few brief occasions. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The upper low and accompanying trough (and surface cool frontal boundary) will drop well southward into the Deep South toward North Florida (at least). <i><b>The net effect will mainly be in the storm steering wind flow aloft</b></i>, <b><u>though initially temperatures aloft will also be quite 'cold'</u></b> (for this time of year).</span></p><p><b style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><u>TODAY</u></b><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">: Pattern change in process as of this writing. Upper and surface level ridge axis has been over North Florida and even further north than that resulting in mainly an easterly flow regime for the majority of Summer 2022; however, all that changes commencing later today into tonight as the ridge axis will be forced southward due to the upper level TROUGH further north as it digs southward. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">As noted, this means storms that do form will be able to at least work eastward (though slowly). This also means that the West Coast Sea breeze will be the dominant player as it works from west to east across the interior toward the East Half of the State.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">There are many factors as usual to consider such as just how far EAST will the west coast sea breeze get before it meets the east coast sea breeze, temperatures aloft, amount of overall moisture availability in varying levels of the atmosphere, and predecedant cloud cover that can limit insulation (heating from the sun and thus instability)and the list goes on. Each day is different despite what it might look like to you outside. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>This also means for people at the beaches another factor that could work in. </b><u>VERY WARM temperatures on certain days due to a delayed sea breeze </u>(if at all) AND a greater Lightning Risk late in the day.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxI45yeKCfUWcEx_2heVm8ytku4MJt7vTSB3QmknWxEBiaVbX5_QRRKxqT7U2lAqxx-fxcM2bOOObSPi2nvJ_ZnK_LVnyRYplTip0hO5_nkUWk8HW7hP6s8XVlto_GJxclMf8Lr0DtW0hOsH_PqiPgjZhlMPbecOz--jidvQL2uRWsdNnv2ANFSK9CA/s554/blog3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="439" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxI45yeKCfUWcEx_2heVm8ytku4MJt7vTSB3QmknWxEBiaVbX5_QRRKxqT7U2lAqxx-fxcM2bOOObSPi2nvJ_ZnK_LVnyRYplTip0hO5_nkUWk8HW7hP6s8XVlto_GJxclMf8Lr0DtW0hOsH_PqiPgjZhlMPbecOz--jidvQL2uRWsdNnv2ANFSK9CA/w346-h436/blog3.JPG" width="346" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">For today, as shown in the graphic above, there could be some very strongly active storms mainly WEST of I95 with a very slow steering eastward. There might be some storms that will manage to form even well after dark, but we'll see. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Do note that<b><i> today is the 'transition' day</i></b> so any storms to actually REACH the immediate east coast might be hard to come by (except for Volusia County mainly ... after dark there might be some activity if even light rain that 'could' reach Central Brevard Beaches, but no bets on that. The prime threat could be small hail and stronger wind gusts (non-severe/damaging) and of course, LIGHTNING.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SATURDAY</u></b>: Saturday will be similar to today as it now appears but we will be already in 'full-transition' mode , meaning that the steering will already be in place at day break. That means the east coast and west coast sea breeze merger 'should theoretically' take place closer to the East Coast than it will today. Temperatures aloft will again be rather 'cold' so again, stronger storms possible after 4-5pm.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY AND BEYOND:</u></b> In general, temperatures aloft will warm a bit going into early next week so storm strength won't be 'as big' as a threat, though LIGHTNING will continue to be the ever-present and most lethal danger. <b>Storms are not warned for Graphic and Intense LIGHTNING</b>, so be fore-warned, as it is also the Number 1 killer in any Florida thunderstorm, and <b>we could be seeing a lot of lightning across North Central - Central - and South Central Florida over the East Half of the Peninsula in days to come.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzRfadCTeZrm_PCuyeTqJUHmSTFD3kzQhC-DbhgBm28Bwydev59193quQw9lt-ijZToM_Spf93A2JohyOxoYHxe1_TFW-pboTinxJ0KT3HPUdiuYHWA2_MgFJ65fZmTQJrGvEANkUpKZCVobGKIr21n_4OFH0iafU23bL80Qjq70a6vLRDR6o33qo2w/s1600/Storms-Google-Photos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1600" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtzRfadCTeZrm_PCuyeTqJUHmSTFD3kzQhC-DbhgBm28Bwydev59193quQw9lt-ijZToM_Spf93A2JohyOxoYHxe1_TFW-pboTinxJ0KT3HPUdiuYHWA2_MgFJ65fZmTQJrGvEANkUpKZCVobGKIr21n_4OFH0iafU23bL80Qjq70a6vLRDR6o33qo2w/w605-h329/Storms-Google-Photos.jpg" width="605" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><i>WRAP-UP:</i></u></b> In general, though each day will have its variations, it now appears that we could be looking at storms favoring the East Half of the state for a solid week if not longer. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">We might even get to the point where the east coast sea breeze will barely if at all form. On those days, storms will be harder to come by (moisture or no moisture makes no difference), as we need to have boundary collisions to generate a 'good storm' and<b> temperatures on those days will SOAR</b>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">ALSO - there is no way of knowing far out how much moisture will actually be available in the atmosphere. DOUBLE ALSO - the factor of cloud cover. If we have days were there is too much high or mid-level cloud cover in the first half of the day then storm coverage is greatly diminished.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><i>FINAL COMMENT:</i></u></b> Lightning is a very clear and present danger toward the East Coast for the next 7-10 days. Gusty winds, though not lethal could accompany some of the storms, and with slower storm motion areas prone to localized poor drainage could be problematic, especially if such an area receives a number of storms over consecutive days. If we have some days later next week when the sea breeze can't form at all or forms late, then the Heat Index will be another factor to consider.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-2808112990068791832022-06-21T11:23:00.005-04:002022-06-21T11:23:48.441-04:00Summer Begins Today with Storms To Follow by Friday<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZmFyN0QlhKYLODGQRhz4NtC5Rz3UwkefXqTXB78KtecANbXUOJgj60ycuxckR38Z0LDIFMZkfb7XZAKgQg7vyXawODt5isDQtyd1yU1V91EWRy1JoZTkQGoUDAy_3RZyLvEsrzEzKgYN01fyb0vKguJR7a_KkyyzRJVDd9zgGijG6sRuM8bFO3CeXw/s3440/2014-06-18%20Canon%20clouds%20008.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2278" data-original-width="3440" height="327" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZmFyN0QlhKYLODGQRhz4NtC5Rz3UwkefXqTXB78KtecANbXUOJgj60ycuxckR38Z0LDIFMZkfb7XZAKgQg7vyXawODt5isDQtyd1yU1V91EWRy1JoZTkQGoUDAy_3RZyLvEsrzEzKgYN01fyb0vKguJR7a_KkyyzRJVDd9zgGijG6sRuM8bFO3CeXw/w494-h327/2014-06-18%20Canon%20clouds%20008.JPG" width="494" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><u>TODAY June 21</u></b>: Summer Solstice was at 5:13AM EDT , so we are now officially in SUMMER 2022!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As for the weather across 'The Sunshine State' it will mostly live up to the misnomer today, Wednesday and Thursday (though North Florida could see some activity), of being a 'sunshine state' that is. On the other hand the saying will be true, not much of a chance of rain anywhere across much of the state except toward South Florida.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In general, the current pattern we've been in is going to break down as the Summer Heat Ridge over much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains will begin to weaken and retrograde further west. This does not look good for much of the already Drought Stricken parts of the country though . For those of us further East, especially the Southeast states, the retrograde will be a 'good thing' if you need the rain (which we do).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In general, from Friday well on into the Weekend and all of next week we will see a broadly disorganized region of "Low Pressure" centered around the Florida/Georgia Border which will increase rain/storm chances in a wide variety of ways depending on what else is going on each day with wind fields, instability, and general atmospheric moisture availability. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I will leave this post short just to get us started since each day will be different in it's own way once this pattern change comes up then begins to evolve , taking on different characteristics about every other day for a good 10 days it now appears.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> What that all means is, 'summer weather in Florida the way you'd expect it to be (more or less).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">To get us started (however) it does also appear at some point that an inverted coastal trough (roughly tracing the Gulf Stream offshore) could be in play some of the overnight to early morning period which will act as a region of convergence for ocean showers/storms to form over night. This activity would mainly remain 'off shore' but some of it could come ashore. That means, beginning around Saturday for the next week to follow there might be some storms/showers offshore overnight that 'might' come ashore, especially South Central to South Florida.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">But for starters, <b><i><u>the outlook for FRIDAY</u></i></b> looks like NE Florida could be at risk for storms (some strong) in the region shown below in "Red". North to Central Brevard 'might' also see rain chances on Thursday very late, perhaps after midnight, but that risk is rather 'iffy' as it stands now</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQVcUI3_e9QVc8OC0uE_3J_Bm-x8MgY-EQPDAYpfb6E216ZwkZ8k0pNngSk_9-XAIEAMt9oqJLq5mezQr0M7-cIq1qzzmKb0RNXOcR2t5V_BfMnEr_0hYBjsickXVANVa9mw4xuJvByUofXjbmaheTn91TdOO2re0ri-gBVtL3Yz3v46i-MMuSDjBQgQ/s1026/blog621.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="570" data-original-width="1026" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQVcUI3_e9QVc8OC0uE_3J_Bm-x8MgY-EQPDAYpfb6E216ZwkZ8k0pNngSk_9-XAIEAMt9oqJLq5mezQr0M7-cIq1qzzmKb0RNXOcR2t5V_BfMnEr_0hYBjsickXVANVa9mw4xuJvByUofXjbmaheTn91TdOO2re0ri-gBVtL3Yz3v46i-MMuSDjBQgQ/w570-h317/blog621.jpg" width="570" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The area in <b><span style="color: #ffa400;">'GOLD</span></b>" is the area we are most likely to see storms beginning mid-afternoon to well into the evening on <b><u><span style="color: #ffa400;">SATURDAY</span>.</u></b> Sunday will be similar but perhaps with even greater coverage state wide.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><i><u>Strong Storms possible from near the North Shores of Lake Okeechobee northward, Saturday.</u></i></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Again, on Friday the risk of storms appears will be limited to mainly the area from Indian River County northward but the risk expands on Saturday and then many days to follow.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Storm motion will be slow and in some cases dictated by outflow boundaries and "Lake/Sea Breezes"</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In other words, SUMMER ...but SUMMER with PUNCH.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5D51iji17h0ahAiw-mzGKxMETNVa5tEndnEAqJYyV8RfOSc8eTzPxnwvNnzA91wI8KdGdpJ23XBco4E5I_GHr2Ep1i1fq9tkdzZpv9e0TgcM4E4sx8UwEid1SZ2oS2ILOi8Zli3RUZcbMSTpUZ-mZEi6QT7Y2zuLHUhZ2tn6avGC5oMcILRtfKNn1w/s1336/2014-06-14%202ptstjohnback%20036.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1126" data-original-width="1336" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5D51iji17h0ahAiw-mzGKxMETNVa5tEndnEAqJYyV8RfOSc8eTzPxnwvNnzA91wI8KdGdpJ23XBco4E5I_GHr2Ep1i1fq9tkdzZpv9e0TgcM4E4sx8UwEid1SZ2oS2ILOi8Zli3RUZcbMSTpUZ-mZEi6QT7Y2zuLHUhZ2tn6avGC5oMcILRtfKNn1w/w566-h478/2014-06-14%202ptstjohnback%20036.JPG" width="566" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-50699773050935779322022-03-21T02:05:00.004-04:002022-03-21T02:05:50.423-04:00It's Been A While Since a Blog Post but See "BRUNO SANFILIPPO - Doll"<iframe width="480" height="270" src="https://youtube.com/embed/BseTi7XBxjk" frameborder="0"></iframe><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-65037249787017687752021-09-23T10:04:00.012-04:002021-09-23T10:10:41.907-04:00Fallen Dewpoints Right on Schedule - But Tropics Might Heat Up !
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwVyS4w34HhM9i0q5KB4-oXMS8r4GJUCEvj1siTs3WPJiBSkPYUp4noFjsbK6ixxUvFIkw2dAhHRM6P7NqWYo5jzV-MCsb5IYjswpbtruNEVk6cBRPmXcb4G59CePyp2MDaYoqiB9sR0c5/s658/Fall-2021-%25E2%2580%2593-When-Is-Fall-.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="341" data-original-width="658" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwVyS4w34HhM9i0q5KB4-oXMS8r4GJUCEvj1siTs3WPJiBSkPYUp4noFjsbK6ixxUvFIkw2dAhHRM6P7NqWYo5jzV-MCsb5IYjswpbtruNEVk6cBRPmXcb4G59CePyp2MDaYoqiB9sR0c5/s600/Fall-2021-%25E2%2580%2593-When-Is-Fall-.jpg" width="600" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TODAY</b>: First frontal boundary of the Fall Calendar Season (which began only but yesterday) is in full swing even this morning with northerly winds and lows
in the mid-upper 50Fs this morning in the western Florida Panhandle Region with those northerly winds having worked into Central Florida.
The air mass, particularly south of I-4 won't be 'greatly' affected during this first 'full frontal assault' though. The main impacts once the boundary clears Central Florida (which will not be fully under Sunday) will be lower Dew point Temperatures.
You might recall earlier this year a post proclaiming the onset of 'Summer' in which it was suggested the 'summer is truly here when the dew points never fall below 70F. Such
has been the case the past couple of months (may it be known) but come Sunday into Monday for the first half of next week the forecast calls for falling dew point temperatures
and a slight cooling otherwise as well. The main impact being it won't be as humid and 'heat indices' likewise will be lower. Highs will be mainly in the mid-upper 80Fs
inland and lower to mid-80Fs along the coast especially as we get toward Monday - Wednesday of next week with dew points in the mid-lower 60Fs.
The weekend itself appears will be all but dry with dew points in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F right at the beach itself.
Otherwise, the only contender for rain chances north of a Melbourne to Tampa line and south of I4 will be today and perhaps on Friday. But come Saturday onward
and especially Sunday through Tuesday there is about a zero chance of rain.
Lows in the mornings won't be but a few degrees cooler but it will be noticeably drier giving a cooler 'feels like'.
With these things said, the next subject at hand and probably hasty with it, is to<b> watch the tropics or other odd 'anomalies' to occur
in the upcoming 3-4 weeks</b>. The time period of mainly ' from <u>the last week of September through to the first week of November is notorious for atypical weather events</u>
such as 'no name storms', 'strong nor-easter' type weather', small scale heavy rain/large rainfall total events and last but not least - tropical systems.</span><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> It is the 'Tropical Systems' realm we're investigating (for now) in this write up , and we'll keep it very brief. The GFS in the past two runs now (going out just beyond the
unreasonable 10-day forecast time frame but very close to it) has shown two runs in a row a tropical system to form between the eastern tip of Cuba and/or just east
of the Bahamas and then moved westward to the Florida peninsula. At the same time a large and likely Strong Hurricane could be threatening Bermuda. This
would all be toward NEXT weekend.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Below is the latter GFS Model run. Here it shows a landfall 'tropical system' centered near</span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">just north of West Palm Beach' to move west across the state, enter the Tampa Region, then curve back eastward to exit the state off Central Brevard County. Does that sound reasonable to you? Not on my end it doesn't. The previous run was even 'spookier'. Tis the season I guess, but as we've noted earlier, we are coming to 'that time of year for anomalies' .</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl4J-S5LiVvwtCc3Q9iHTLfheiSKhJ-GtfUZnyR1IaZkgs3ceNXcrkb-Pk-aytAalwg5amWgJeNaw7CGtQG8EiQgu5dLMRtVFjU4h11hJjFSnPORUmJESH6VxaNIPMniAzesm4ZOcbcglv/s412/COD-Forecast-Models.png" style="clear: left; display: block; float: left; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl4J-S5LiVvwtCc3Q9iHTLfheiSKhJ-GtfUZnyR1IaZkgs3ceNXcrkb-Pk-aytAalwg5amWgJeNaw7CGtQG8EiQgu5dLMRtVFjU4h11hJjFSnPORUmJESH6VxaNIPMniAzesm4ZOcbcglv/s600/COD-Forecast-Models.png" width="600" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">
As you can see, this is still well out in time and could easily change.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> The GFS has handled what 'might evolve'
as being from latent energy associated with the front's passing through our areas in the next few days as they then nestle down in the frontal grave yard
of the Florida Straits. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">But they might not be all dead just yet (!) is the point. It does appear that the GFS is trying to bring one 'back to life' as a cyclonically
rotating system to cross Florida.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> The first option the model showed was not one but two (!) systems around the state all embedded within a large
low pressure system. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The latter run closed it up to one more organized system as seen above. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">No matter, could be interesting so just a heads up for now. Maybe by this
time tomorrow the whole idea might have been completed abandoned. In the mean time, Fall has made a very 'Timely' showing this year , right to the calendar date.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-59013168993301086442021-09-16T11:37:00.000-04:002021-09-16T11:37:07.153-04:00Man Your Life Boats! Large Rainfall Totals Possible The Next 10 Days<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs-wZyPuFGlogvis_PX8oD6E0e8TvBLWsCQzKt2jZ5YHiNIgwqhCsJLq-aU-8mrXhpjh_8XlYFDppOkxhzcrlHz7a-R5YGNav-qg_NI81I58xkx8w0ljVtEqNxhpL5RLXUi9NVhLDHoZ6k/s688/blog1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="558" data-original-width="688" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs-wZyPuFGlogvis_PX8oD6E0e8TvBLWsCQzKt2jZ5YHiNIgwqhCsJLq-aU-8mrXhpjh_8XlYFDppOkxhzcrlHz7a-R5YGNav-qg_NI81I58xkx8w0ljVtEqNxhpL5RLXUi9NVhLDHoZ6k/w640-h520/blog1.png" title="Precipitable Water over 2.00"" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;">Purple colors means very high 'precipitable' water values <br />through the depth of the atmospher</span>e</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>TODAY</u></b>: If there were a Noah today, he'd be calling all to Get Onboard and Get with The Program because rains are a-comin' (!) but who would believe His Report? After all, it looks nice enough out there now, and 'I've got better things to do than be concerned about some mamby - pamby report about something I see no evidence of with my bare eyes.'</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">However, things are 'setting up' in some form and fashion for not only some large rainfall totals (esp. just inland from the east coast toward I95) today, but also tomorrow. And, for that matter, for several days to come for varying reasons. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This is not a 'sure thing' however, especially the further out in time we go, but the 'trends' have been that in some form or fashion there will be good rain chances persisting for at least at an intermittent fashion (with a few breaks in the cycles) for the next 6-10 days (at least).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Firstly, moisture advecting in from the west from nearly stationary remnant 'Nicholas' will be combining with a more SW-W (toward the east) steering flow, and that with the east coast sea breeze will result in a moisture convergence most prominent along the east side of the state later in the day along the west coast - east coast sea breeze merger and outflow boundary collisions of earlier shower activities. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The large rainfall totals will not only be from all the available moisture (precipitable water) but due to the slow forward motions of the storm activity itself. Steering, though toward the east, is rather weak so storms themselves will be in no hurry to pull out once one unloads over a location.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirhyphenhyphenWVpIC8kZBialXKL1CP8fUC_FBejDIRMoNAjBKp6POm4LoUCwlfkHEBEdABG5KagTVZR9pRa-c0-VEJdpXDbgNpH6fnCajZERe7z4bsPvvHlE-VDDhnG1Uc3mUJwY6jL3HabWbr0iK6/s1309/IMG_0026.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1309" height="421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirhyphenhyphenWVpIC8kZBialXKL1CP8fUC_FBejDIRMoNAjBKp6POm4LoUCwlfkHEBEdABG5KagTVZR9pRa-c0-VEJdpXDbgNpH6fnCajZERe7z4bsPvvHlE-VDDhnG1Uc3mUJwY6jL3HabWbr0iK6/w640-h421/IMG_0026.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The same situation will occur tomorrow in must of the same areas, with the north half of the state most favored.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Now, as one may realize another tropical system is currently in the process of evolving well east of Florida. This system which will likely be named is not expected to make landfall anywhere along the U.S. East Coast as it lifts northward and eventually curves to the NNE off the Carolinas. However, as it moves out, a trailing low level 'trough axis' - a bit like a cold front - will translate south and westward from it as it merges with a larger continental trough moving off the NE - and Mid-Atlantic States. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">That 'trough axis' will trail back south and west toward/across Florida where the remaining pooling of moisture from Nicholas will again come into play. So now we will have that moisture COUPLED with convergence along this newly formed trough axis from the departing tropical system, which if named, would be 'Odette'.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Between today and tomorrow, we could see rainfall totals between 3-4" in isolated cases (most likely along to just west of I95) but other areas could well see 2" inches plus, with wide spread 1/2 - 1" totals possible. That is only for the next two days from "Nicolas" more or less, alone; now, to consider what occurs when 'Odette' (if so named, but makes no difference one way or the other) is included, which will affect the state for another 2 days or so due to that 'trailing trough axis arching back across Florida', we can double that total. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">But hold on, as the GFS is showing a potentially potent tropical wave to be approaching from the east by the time these first two scenarios have been exasperated, which would only then prove to be another 'nail in the coffin' of moisture laden atmospheric mayhem.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4lgYr9DkBzh9m5C6m87lWJxXBpXd_oiSSKdzhtEzLjHBDxIP2ZuWVObiBXlcJdE4pg3SKU23_nkpAe3fG9hrCYFjrc3aJn9Q1GmpmXkVU4RdjiJmJWlqWFpZTKuNuAtin62s8p-aumyM/s1600/dreamstime_xl_4946141.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1071" data-original-width="1600" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4lgYr9DkBzh9m5C6m87lWJxXBpXd_oiSSKdzhtEzLjHBDxIP2ZuWVObiBXlcJdE4pg3SKU23_nkpAe3fG9hrCYFjrc3aJn9Q1GmpmXkVU4RdjiJmJWlqWFpZTKuNuAtin62s8p-aumyM/w640-h428/dreamstime_xl_4946141.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">'Sum Total" for Today through the middle of next week (at least) is to expect rainfall (not all day long, mostly in the late mornings through mid-evening) today through Tuesday. THEN, when the pattern changes but we still have moisture all about, another pattern of nocturnal and early day rains might set up for the east coast primarily for several days to come. So far, severe weather is not expected, but dangerous lightning strikes will be at stake as the primary hazard (as well as localized short-term flooding).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This post is considering a 'worst potential outcome' though. Chances are we will end up in the middle-ground realm - but still - rains are on the way to begin later today - for any one location though -such as your own - there is no saying if you will see such high totals or not - one place only 5 miles away from any other location can manage as much as 4 inches more than another location not far away.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-46055171434287395822021-07-27T11:22:00.001-04:002021-07-27T11:22:38.952-04:00Bona fide Florida Summerlike Storm Pattern In Place for the Next Week<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEbVAylOUvkkSGDr53oNu16e_gL8R618hSfZneeM6TaPfZc46BtAb36Rlshadja2f0gyvk22rWBkXoiGF3AIcD78qsgGY123w_mfimOc_Luv5_cVVYSlqusiYC0-sI8o27J-mOFR-4tfc6/s1914/IMG_0027sm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1258" data-original-width="1914" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEbVAylOUvkkSGDr53oNu16e_gL8R618hSfZneeM6TaPfZc46BtAb36Rlshadja2f0gyvk22rWBkXoiGF3AIcD78qsgGY123w_mfimOc_Luv5_cVVYSlqusiYC0-sI8o27J-mOFR-4tfc6/w640-h420/IMG_0027sm.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono"; font-size: large;">(All images in this post from the last few days) .. Well,it took a while, but at long last it appears what would be considered something closer to a 'classic summer time weather pattern' is fully in place as of today of which will continue with daily variations (from one day to the next) for what appears to be a good week if not longer. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">That being, heaviest storms resulting from the collision of the west with the east coast sea breeze boundaries accompanied by lake breeze boundaries, and late in the day the addition of outflow boundaries from showers or storms that have formed and collapsed earlier on in the day.</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBFCYruI7W1wikIWSsz-9Pg7x2Ra7pSQF38mktS2z9oeY_CwNvS9M9zOdAIx2TTYLZ1i1LandaQHei0x2h4uqi6DvrvcIXgsi9ohK2jLjJvInhXKe1L1x8vskziRCS-DY-5aY-1i9XwQw/s2048/IMG_0014.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1308" data-original-width="2048" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihBFCYruI7W1wikIWSsz-9Pg7x2Ra7pSQF38mktS2z9oeY_CwNvS9M9zOdAIx2TTYLZ1i1LandaQHei0x2h4uqi6DvrvcIXgsi9ohK2jLjJvInhXKe1L1x8vskziRCS-DY-5aY-1i9XwQw/w640-h408/IMG_0014.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">Temperatures aloft at 500mb (about 20,000 ft up) are an unimpressive -5C (though we have seen even warmer that that - 'the colder aloft' it is, the stronger storms can be; if we see something like -8 to -10C, "look out!", but -5C is average.). The current reading out of the KSC Sounding this morning is middle of the road at -5C , and winds aloft are light, so 'severe' storms are not anticipated though it is possible for a stronger storm or two to pulse up where several boundaries meet late in the day (after 6PM mostly) somewhere over the interior mainly. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">Outside of any fluke meso-scale (small scale) "Accidents" , we should be seeing what would be considered 'typical' summer thunderstorms -- with the primary hazard being lightning. With such slow steering there could be some areas over the interior that will have to reckon with flooding issues (possibly) in the areas most prone to it -- those areas where activity just so happens to congregate en-masse the most frequently. Especially if it happens they do so over or near the same areas over several days.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">Atmospheric moisture availability is not in question now, nor will be for quite a while. At least as it appears now per model guidance.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">When is a 'more significant change' to come, and what will it be?</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05XQdxxIdrbAq5er1QeeHdOVPRL2U2X7fFkQ9wKaPeQXWuP2qwsjck1BVjiuhU0zaZVEM83g4KSc6EDLXUEpALvXXtAa6kBhZg5kp2f3XTdsdAdG-tDwhsviFAXZx5nki71xSBGY_DFhg/s1928/IMG_0010+-+Copy.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1122" data-original-width="1928" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05XQdxxIdrbAq5er1QeeHdOVPRL2U2X7fFkQ9wKaPeQXWuP2qwsjck1BVjiuhU0zaZVEM83g4KSc6EDLXUEpALvXXtAa6kBhZg5kp2f3XTdsdAdG-tDwhsviFAXZx5nki71xSBGY_DFhg/w640-h372/IMG_0010+-+Copy.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">So far, there is a signal that a trough to form along the U.S. East Half (East of the Mississippi) might dig a bit southward more later in the week to eventually almost cut off to a mid-level low over the Southeast U.S. In doing so (or 'if so'), with Florida on the south side of that low which rotates counter-clockwise, the state would then be under a slightly stronger W-SW flow aloft. The being the case the storm-steering would be far more certain to push inland storm activity eastward to clearing completely the east coast to offshore.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">But for today and the next several days, the immediate beaches (East of US 1 for example) will be (or might be) pressed to see a fully formed and mature storm pass over head, as opposed to areas further inland where the sea breezes and lake breeze boundaries intersect and hence enhance upward lifting.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizoiQux8npw2BNEptg2bytUSw9EEpbX0-gywZqS0KdpK5zT9m-REKi81y_u76z3lMgXaGC-jVutHww3uplK5KhkbahSr7GFPvUexFPvNaySZKVk5Zkk7XGH0ruD66HB1gRPgKjiElAaBg0/s2048/IMG_0020.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1361" data-original-width="2048" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizoiQux8npw2BNEptg2bytUSw9EEpbX0-gywZqS0KdpK5zT9m-REKi81y_u76z3lMgXaGC-jVutHww3uplK5KhkbahSr7GFPvUexFPvNaySZKVk5Zkk7XGH0ruD66HB1gRPgKjiElAaBg0/w640-h426/IMG_0020.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono; font-size: medium;">If the 'supposed' mid-level low does end up materializing by the weekend to beginning of next week, the west coast sea breeze will come across the state much more quickly and meet the east coast sea breeze (if there is one at all) must closer to I95 if not east of it. That is still out of accuracy range at this point though, but regardless, the consistency now for a few model runs indicates that no matter how one slices it we'll have the moisture and instability to keep things rolling in Classic Florida Summer Fashion now for a good 10 days.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgID91LQO7dH2Kycq6PMNlEfAjWlP4Tl8qy_n7i3Y5WfW5ps2_uQVkktMh_5kaQtYqlFNY7J00ViRT636KGQECrUkLiycW2YlkvMlifHpQKoTGI6jEw5acWAGvwvBb6RKgtplu3Y73maHQk/s2048/IMG_0030sm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1340" data-original-width="2048" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgID91LQO7dH2Kycq6PMNlEfAjWlP4Tl8qy_n7i3Y5WfW5ps2_uQVkktMh_5kaQtYqlFNY7J00ViRT636KGQECrUkLiycW2YlkvMlifHpQKoTGI6jEw5acWAGvwvBb6RKgtplu3Y73maHQk/w640-h418/IMG_0030sm.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-84948832906454226932021-06-22T05:00:00.000-04:002021-06-22T05:00:02.595-04:00 "Heavy - Strong Storms' Possible Again Today<p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD-4t-GlbFf4AR77uUgcofWmFZBFh2_rmM6JfapFY6AoXOzBtSkyCzj-P9g7-zPYPT1hIqwRNgvoNfAFvKBAe1adOGu5uBTbEkcYNSYZKGOxX1LmBFyvJcAEzhQOWNzedUr2lBoZ4-mjzs/s2048/IMG_0005.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1355" data-original-width="2048" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD-4t-GlbFf4AR77uUgcofWmFZBFh2_rmM6JfapFY6AoXOzBtSkyCzj-P9g7-zPYPT1hIqwRNgvoNfAFvKBAe1adOGu5uBTbEkcYNSYZKGOxX1LmBFyvJcAEzhQOWNzedUr2lBoZ4-mjzs/w640-h424/IMG_0005.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;"><b><i>A Strong Storm Encroaches in on US1 and SR528 In Cocoa Late Monday Afternoon</i></b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>TODAY</u></b>: Similar set up to yesterday with little change in the overall synoptic (larger scale) pattern. At the lower levels not much else has changed either, other than the day looks like it will start out not 'quite as cloudy' as it was Monday (given, it is still dark out at the time of writing) based on Infrared Satellite Imagery. Given what occurred yesterday (and continuity) the atmosphere should sufficient de-stabilize with sufficient moisture already now in place to set the stage for another round of heavy storms with gusty winds in the stronger storms - with occasional to frequent lightning at times (perhaps small hail in the strongest cores).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">A mid-level trough just to the west of the state combined with a ridge across Far South Florida results in W-SW steering across Central/North Florida. At the immediate surface the wind is forecast to be from due south though a bit more of an easterly component is possible along the immediate coast from US1 and east. All this means that storm motion outside of the effects of outflow boundaries translates to storms moving in from the SSW-W depending on the situation.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8wegmSSoORMMZ7UWj2fmcPhPfsGUnKLDPVRJcy56mG1Z2AqnCPKdqxuexT553t5-i86dMdKMiDVYFftAeJiPTBuLQ7n24bGaZb6dI9jLiFMFc9ZSnpBdYGBtx-PmqqrU098ZEMElRyuOr/s858/blog1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="858" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8wegmSSoORMMZ7UWj2fmcPhPfsGUnKLDPVRJcy56mG1Z2AqnCPKdqxuexT553t5-i86dMdKMiDVYFftAeJiPTBuLQ7n24bGaZb6dI9jLiFMFc9ZSnpBdYGBtx-PmqqrU098ZEMElRyuOr/w640-h478/blog1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The only 'issue' is in regard to timing, with the RAP consistently inferring activity will be 'hitting the coastal regions' between 2-3pm this afternoon, whereas even the RAP derived HRRR does not show this to be the case, nor does the 4KM NAM or the GFS, but rather those models point to the 4-6pm time frame, then lasting (and weakening) as it gets dark going to the mid-evening hours. Will side with continuity, and hence speak 'late afternoon' for the better 'time-frame' for activity. Temperatures aloft are still 'cool' without much to speak of over-head wind-wise - but 25-35kt wind aloft translates to surface gusts in the 40-60mph range related to the strongest of storms . Storm motions might be a bit slower today, so other than wind the bigger 'hazard' would be localized flooding in the prone areas that have already received a healthy dose in the past week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4fPbDxmNtf_u94jhbugIcSYa02sgH3kR6qknsdz-KqNDjglrXXwQYPfkNLUcggvmWRo_4YSd9DLYWBwQbEh8Z5goP7cq4WPNLT8yk4j7mI1bcRcvPr028L9FgOdZFr_rfuUSb3O13IOV8/s2048/IMG_0007.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1382" data-original-width="2048" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4fPbDxmNtf_u94jhbugIcSYa02sgH3kR6qknsdz-KqNDjglrXXwQYPfkNLUcggvmWRo_4YSd9DLYWBwQbEh8Z5goP7cq4WPNLT8yk4j7mI1bcRcvPr028L9FgOdZFr_rfuUSb3O13IOV8/w640-h432/IMG_0007.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>WEDNESDAY:</u></b> One more day of the current patter, with again storms favoring the region north of Lake Okeechobee to I4 for greatest coverage , including the immediate east coast. Again, the favored area appears to be near I4 south toward Osceola /Brevard Counties for mid-late afternoon storms to move even more slowly toward the east. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>THURSDAY-FRIDAY:</u></b> Pattern change. Though steering decreases even more, moisture remains across much of the state. South Florida more likely to get in on the 'action' by this time frame...and timing of rainfall, especially near the East Coast could get tricky. There are 'hints' that come Friday morning (for example ) some areas along the east coast could see showers/storms just offshore that might migrate onto the coast early to mid-morning time frame so will just have to be watching for these subtle changes in upcoming days.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>WEEKEND:</u></b> GFS consistent infers a drying out phase across the state as the high pressure surface ridge lifts north and deeper easterly flow ensures eliminating any chance of sea breeze convergence but for perhaps along the immediate west coast and across the Panhandle region. Beyond the Tuesday time frame there is not enough agreement between models to bother going into - though worth noting the last GFS the came out showed yet another tropical system lifting north toward the northern Gulf Coast region.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-51441788323045701162021-06-11T05:46:00.002-04:002021-06-11T05:46:36.799-04:00Pattern Change Commences! Risk of a Strong Storm Today/Saturday<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEe1szmf4v4sMZwTEczU5M0aHmWdexjFChwCFg6qIQwBQqbeuwDnN3j91GlLnlsuGNr3lMFRxyTKIUjf3knAUAjVOHa0AMAWgLzvQOEAMMqnji9kSMo-KGehSyhd4WOyg9ca083Xo1JQLV/s1324/IMG_0066.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1324" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEe1szmf4v4sMZwTEczU5M0aHmWdexjFChwCFg6qIQwBQqbeuwDnN3j91GlLnlsuGNr3lMFRxyTKIUjf3knAUAjVOHa0AMAWgLzvQOEAMMqnji9kSMo-KGehSyhd4WOyg9ca083Xo1JQLV/w640-h414/IMG_0066.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Early Morning Thunderstorm Offshore Canaveral (June 1, 2017) </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TODAY</b>: A long awaited (and monitored) pattern change began yesterday subtly and coming into more full swing today and through the weekend. A strong 'heat ridge' building over the Desert Southwest up into the SW Rockies will continue to build northward and in response a deepening Trough Aloft will ensue all along the U.S. East coast with Florida near the base of this upper-mid level troughing action.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">In response, the high pressure ridge axis that had been 'north' of Florida providing for the on-going onshore (easterly) flow has been shunted southward to south of Central Florida this morning with morning Southwest -West winds now in place (for a change from the easterly winds that had been in place).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This overall scheme will remain in place through the weekend and well into next week. That being -- the ridge axis at the low levels situated/positioned well south of Central to even South Florida leaving the state in southwest to westerly flow as well as 'storm steering' flow from the 'west' (in general), so any activity that can form over the state will press from west to east during the course of the day. The question will be, 'is there enough moisture to generate storms and if so where will that moisture be?".</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>TODAY</u></b>: Though there 'could' be strong storms today along the east coast, it appears the potential will be limited to a rather small area(if so) where Upward <b>Vertical Velocities</b> (<b><i>VVs</i></b>) will be maximized along the predominating westerly flow as it meets an East Coast Sea breeze that is not expected to make a whole lot of leeway inland (not much beyond I-95 or so, today. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Temperatures aloft today are 'cool' but not overly cold nor is there upper level shear (either directional or speed shear). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Hence, any 'strong storms' today will be relying on nearly and exclusively 'Upward Forcing" at the lower to mid-levels in accompaniment with surface based 'Instability' and any low level 'helicity' / localized spiraling actions providing additional upward forcing. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Over the course of the past 24 hours the 4KM NAM model and now the shorter term RAP model runs are showing localized vorticity and helicity actions up and down the Florida East Coast, especially from near Indian River county northward toward JAX Beach in Northeast Florida once the sea breeze attempts to move in -- in accompaniment with peak instability at prime time (mid-late afternoon) to occur along to east of Brevard County toward southern Volusia Countiesin the same areas.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Though a sea breeze should be able to form today, it won't make a 'whole lot' of inland progress. This 'onshore flow' will advect the greater instability just offshore into and across the coast line accompanied by what might amount to a rather 'side-shore type Sea Breeze' beneath an otherwise prevailing southwest flow resulting in strong convergence along the sea breeze front during the mid-late afternoon hours atop moderate surface based instability. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">First showers to develop won't be much - but outflow boundaries from them as they collapse will add to the development of other activity along the prevailing sea breeze front merges resulting in even greater upward forcing along where low level helicity/vorticity has set up at the Sea breeze front itself. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Storms that go up along the boundary and are forced eastward will meet these other parameters resulting in at least some good 'lightning' activity today - so 'beach goers and boaters beware!'.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Thus, expect the 'greatest hazard today' might well be but frequent lightning (and maybe some small hail ) and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibdZ3M6EkYRWDYIELYfV7QIfSEnr_0uyX5Ks0zRGAxAB34HbyE8eaUCVF_K-e89MqxS81vm_XG_l3NIF0GjRwr6KkFyEj3gOO8HoCdBYvO-z1MY-wZ1oHS6QTtFHI2184TFyLFmIRH1sXZ/s1059/blog1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1059" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibdZ3M6EkYRWDYIELYfV7QIfSEnr_0uyX5Ks0zRGAxAB34HbyE8eaUCVF_K-e89MqxS81vm_XG_l3NIF0GjRwr6KkFyEj3gOO8HoCdBYvO-z1MY-wZ1oHS6QTtFHI2184TFyLFmIRH1sXZ/w640-h450/blog1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SATURDAY</u></b>: The same scenario will be setting up but temperatures aloft will start to cool a bit more as the heat ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to build, and hence the trough along the US East Side deepens.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> A frontal boundary will sink down toward Highway 10 and eventually to somewhere between I-10 and I-4 by Monday/Tuesday providing for even greater moisture and more widespread activity. In any case, Saturday is showing by the NAM to have even stronger storms than today in roughly the same area, but that is yet to be put in 'concrete' and we'll just have to play it on a Day-By-Day basis as situations develop.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">SUNDAY and BEYOND:</b><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"> Greater coverage might be expected Sunday-Tuesday with even more strong storms becoming likely to even 'spot/pulse severe' popping up in the headlines for future posts. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">Of course, more specific locations have yet to be, nor can be, determined at this point in time, but suffice it say this pattern change which will last through at least mid-late week next week favoring the interior to east coast for mid-afternoon to early evening storms. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Also watch for 'early on-set' days ahead, meaning days when storms might form and move into Central/East Florida during the late morning (along the west side of the state) and press eastward - increasing in coverage into the noon to early afternoons time frame. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Seeing signs now of early-mid morning activities that could commence off the Florida West Coast mainly near to north of Tampa up toward Cedar Key that would form especially along the aforementioned frontal boundary and press eastward along the I4 corridor toward the DAB (Daytona Beach) area first off ..then spread southward into Central Florida for the mid-late afternoon hours, but again, there is a number of scenarios at hand and possible.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">TROPICS: Animation example of activity related to the </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">"Central America Gyre' which often produces Tropical Storm Activity into the Gulf of Mexico area in 'June' and again in 'October' time frames.</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxyx3euedRE06Oc8UdRjP6j31jdYRvpdO7FCdW53L36j4KTHE-e5Q7sAaornC8EOvTC75hIb6xiD4zt6KtKg_TJiwNcNsLk-9gDLgAJC66_kvipsV-P8_wPcODOFlDCC8yjFuB3keNcaZ/s632/ezgif.com-optimize-1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="632" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlxyx3euedRE06Oc8UdRjP6j31jdYRvpdO7FCdW53L36j4KTHE-e5Q7sAaornC8EOvTC75hIb6xiD4zt6KtKg_TJiwNcNsLk-9gDLgAJC66_kvipsV-P8_wPcODOFlDCC8yjFuB3keNcaZ/w640-h480/ezgif.com-optimize-1.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TROPICS</b>: Deep moisture looms well south of Cuba and across Central America awaiting to be drawn north. Over the course of the past week long range model guidance has continually shown a NAMED STORM system to form in this area of what would be the 'Central America Gyre" but it has all been in the 'long range' time frame and keeps getting pushed out in time - the location too of a named system lifting north has varied from anywhere from the Brownsville, Texas area to as far east as Central Florida and then everywhere else in between. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Suffice it say however, that should a storm system lift northward even well west of Florida it appears that deeper atmospheric moisture through the upward column could eventually find it's way into Florida. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Oft times such moisture if TOO MUCH of a 'good thing' offsets storm activity resulting in more of a cloud cover situation rather than heavy storms/rainfall which the 'official forecasts' inevitably will predict. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Regardless, this pattern change we will be experiencing TODAY and through the weekend and into next week is bringing on a change the state has not seen since early-mid summer last year.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-51035999704675566242021-05-30T12:29:00.001-04:002021-05-30T12:29:14.041-04:00"Let The Wet!" Begin - Like Clockwork Strong Storms Today<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAzXZzOXfC__DyB4HmzTmuZQjUtEZNEK5qoPayXW2UJeyFajAkrX_2ppebTviTHtj3vs5XG2iNVmqCOd3_6Awd5kdpuIFrcCUOR6OA66TRdgJJSEShE0JNqPyD1XynCFYhJ3YzEGpohX-V/s1093/blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1093" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAzXZzOXfC__DyB4HmzTmuZQjUtEZNEK5qoPayXW2UJeyFajAkrX_2ppebTviTHtj3vs5XG2iNVmqCOd3_6Awd5kdpuIFrcCUOR6OA66TRdgJJSEShE0JNqPyD1XynCFYhJ3YzEGpohX-V/w640-h416/blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>TODAY</u></b>: Two days left before Climatological Summer begins, and looks like Peninsular Florida is going to waste no time in 2021 to "Let the Wet' Games Begin in earnest. As mentioned in the previous post the other day, SUNDAY (today) would be the 'main show day' with some storms, 'possibly strong' to occur. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Central/South Florida (mainly interior areas) under a 'marginal risk' of severe category storms - that being, some storms could produce hail of 1" and/or wind gusts equal to or in excess of 58 mph. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The 'wind threat' is by far the greatest risk today and as for 'Central Florida" the areas where those storms are mostly likely to occur appears will be under low-to-no populated areas of eastern Osceola/Orange/Okeechobee Counties well west of I 95 but that is not to discount any other probabilities especially in Seminole County and or part of interior St. Lucie/Martin Counties.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The main cause will be plenty of lower level moisture, very cold air aloft, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates primarily over Central Portions, meaning a more rapid decrease of temperature with height in the 'mid-levels' of the atmosphere which leads to quicker upward motions (vertical velocities) - those combined with upward forcing during the time of the sea breeze collisions after a full day of heating and destabilized air that is moist and we'll be able to get some big 'lightning' going (too). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Not all will see rain today however. In fact, some if not most will remain entirely DRY, but we will see increased cloud cover all along the Florida East Coast by late today into the evening if even storm debris cloudiness drifts off to the east. The Storm Steering today is from west to east but it is very slow and not likely able to penetrate the Sea breeze until well after dark. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">There could also be rainstorms or showers after dark near to over and offshore the east coast, especially East Central in the vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary, but this activity would be below 'strong/severe' levels.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">It was mentioned previously we'd see an influx of dew point air (more humid) of 70F plus (for the most part for a good 7 days) and that still appears will be the case... but we will also be averaging Precipitable Water values (the over all atmospheric moisture content) of 1.5" or more on a STEADY basis (compared to 1/2" or less in the winter)...as we can see here, that indeed appears will be the case for days to come (the latest GFS 'says so' at least) ..... </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQXWY-rCBAZTAcCw5WEYK7x1ZRTS_OUgWtfnBSxQj6xwuQhqiXEFrWcF8fVRzcjAP1oVERmu6fBu2MtOOyh9J0VxB8K-bjrdKYpBcnvSH6acVsNPCGAc9H3vAmwAn_yOnqFaDsIiV0zkJq/s891/blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="891" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQXWY-rCBAZTAcCw5WEYK7x1ZRTS_OUgWtfnBSxQj6xwuQhqiXEFrWcF8fVRzcjAP1oVERmu6fBu2MtOOyh9J0VxB8K-bjrdKYpBcnvSH6acVsNPCGAc9H3vAmwAn_yOnqFaDsIiV0zkJq/w640-h372/blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>MONDAY:</b> Chance of showers/thunder persists at almost any hour over night tonight into early morning Monday up through mid-morning near the old frontal boundary (Brevard County beaches area), but after that things clear up and flow becomes more east to west at many levels of the atmosphere. That means the east coast might remain dry after mid-morning through the rest of the day (but not interior and west side).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TUESDAY-FRIDAY</b>: Easterly flow prevails; however, it appears the old boundary might begin to manifest/meld just offshore the east coast along the west edge of the GULF STREAM as <b><u>an inverted coastal trough</u></b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> If so, that would aid to act as an agent for low level convergence and hence rain and/or thunderstorms to form just off shore if not on or near shore over night into the early morning hours, mainly from the Cape and South. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">We'll have to wait to see on this one, but it looks to be in the cards for now. Otherwise, afternoon storms that can form will be mainly west of I95 and more toward the Florida West Coast.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>FRIDAY- BEYOND:</b> Depth of the wind fields becomes much more south to north and looks completely 'SUMMER" ish in all ways- with ample moisture , instability and sea breezes at work. It's too far out in time for now what nature these storms will take, but some might well be strong as well as would be characteristic of 'JUNE' thunderstorms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>TROPICS</u></b>: It's worth at least pointing out that the GFS has been trying to bring<b> Deep Tropical Moisture and Lower Pressures toward Florida come the June 8 - June 13 time frame</b>. The Model Run last night showed a VERY active rain/storm pattern coming up (the newer run isn't completed yet). Regardless, earlier runs were also showing 'something' to go on around that time frame so it is worth watching for.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><i><u>MEANWHILE</u></i>: The gist for today is, 'some strong storms' today mostly West of I95 after 5pm. Cloud cover and rain and weaker storms might make it back to the coast, most likely after dark (unless one can go up along the East Coast Sea breeze earlier in the day).</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-42290799934992155582021-05-27T10:49:00.001-04:002021-05-27T10:49:30.554-04:00"It's Coming!" - True Summer to Arrive "On Schedule"<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk2lq9t2qV0-q0N9F6cnx1yI6giC3SEyGLP5T3LqzpHWpSalZRFenn7SXgdSUfdQr3iViUPa1bApIaJX5Xxi1Rl0CD79VKCmKm5r88Sk_h7Z0KJquvCk2M4fRZqHP-Jsu_gXuoW09tlRZx/s554/blog3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="439" height="654" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk2lq9t2qV0-q0N9F6cnx1yI6giC3SEyGLP5T3LqzpHWpSalZRFenn7SXgdSUfdQr3iViUPa1bApIaJX5Xxi1Rl0CD79VKCmKm5r88Sk_h7Z0KJquvCk2M4fRZqHP-Jsu_gXuoW09tlRZx/w519-h654/blog3.JPG" width="519" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The near 'seemingly drought like' conditions much of the state is in right now is nothing really unusual, as every year there is the 'dry before the rains comes' state of affairs. This year it is most pronounced, though large spread rainfalls that occurred in April have thankfully put the kibosh (to some degree) on the potential that would otherwise be for an outbreak of more widespread brush fires.</span></span></div><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">For this post, only to highlight that continued dry and warmer than usual (mainly inland) will prevail into Saturday, and with the lower dew points that are experienced in the summer this 'heat' is comparatively a 'dry heat' and does not have that 'feels like much more' to it. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Heat indices are far from 'soaring' in other words, and this is all due to the lower dew point temperatures. All that is to change more or less, come Sunday into Monday or there so .</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Who's watching the Clock anyway? After all, the first day of 'Official Summer' at least 'Meteorologically' is June 1 (the astronomical start is when the Sun passes over the Tropic of Cancer around June 21), but from a Meteorological perspective in the northern hemisphere, Summer begins on JUNE 1.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFmt1Dxrrc9SAAAlbe8p3F6GaX68_kyG7aK8jzbBCFCAWUbKKJDhTa5288iaKs4qfEWgUAArI8lAv-2praLyseHPOkaJ83BEtRdUMqI29zcrknIU_BMA1SsMtEbZG5Mx1-HKkUOzMDJpoi/s848/blog2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="818" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFmt1Dxrrc9SAAAlbe8p3F6GaX68_kyG7aK8jzbBCFCAWUbKKJDhTa5288iaKs4qfEWgUAArI8lAv-2praLyseHPOkaJ83BEtRdUMqI29zcrknIU_BMA1SsMtEbZG5Mx1-HKkUOzMDJpoi/w618-h640/blog2.png" width="618" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">Now, from a Florida perspective (at least the bloggers one) it begins when we have at least 7 continuous days of dew point temperatures at or above 70F which is what leads to the next summer norm - the 'wet season' / or 'summer' begins.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"> We have had days in some instances where the sea breezes met, but due to lower dew points</span><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"> and/or length of day time heating the sea breeze collisions would amount to nothing more than a cloud deck for the most part. Now we have longer days and the necessary greater moisture in the lower levels set to move in from the tropics to produce more clouds (cumulus) and thunderstorms during sea and lake breeze mergers (hence, the 'wet season').</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The moisture is first forecast to move in more closely associated to a decaying frontal boundary from the north so that by late Saturday afternoon we might see increased cloud cover during the mid to late day, <b><u>but it is Sunday as the front gets across Central that we could see a storm or two (possibly strong) 'somewhere over Central Florida'</u></b>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The True Higher Dew points from that day onward though will be ushered northward as well from the south ahead and along this boundary, and be <b><i>initially prominent along the Florida East Coast</i></b> MONDAY, MAY 31 morning (after the pretty good chance of rain/storms on Sunday). Inland dewpoints might not quite hit and sustain that magic 70F -- but it won't be long as we move into the first two weeks of June 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">In Fact, the Long Range GFS model shows once the dew point reaches 70F on that Monday morning, it does not once go below that reading from that point onward. Granted, it 's only a forecast model but the trend is on for 'The Wet Season" (and the True Florida-like Summer weather) to be moving in.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVA9BKvmQIgBs6lhtOn46d4Lcyq-TC218TY-IWo30d6Vf9g3pNuS1J1IFO6EPAHLM4AmyhXGFRhiXJEEx86C0OZxDu7iT58qXoIEVHYgV-jdqKAshywzaosa8GZ4XxA9LzebAUUlMrn81l/s588/blog1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="588" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVA9BKvmQIgBs6lhtOn46d4Lcyq-TC218TY-IWo30d6Vf9g3pNuS1J1IFO6EPAHLM4AmyhXGFRhiXJEEx86C0OZxDu7iT58qXoIEVHYgV-jdqKAshywzaosa8GZ4XxA9LzebAUUlMrn81l/w640-h510/blog1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">In regard to Tropical Weather, this also means an increasing risk of Tropical Storm development ...of which any threat at this time of year would be most generally on the "Gulf Side" rather than the Atlantic, at least as far as a 'direct and immediate threat' to a Florida Coast line as far as storm surge is concerned.</span><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-39579627047842477762021-05-06T10:45:00.004-04:002021-05-06T10:45:47.549-04:00Risk of A Severe Storm by Early - Mid Afternoon<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3aJt-lnBE_EnuOOm42TSDO4j7EZTanyS9dI-jU63OdLLLkKKfgGTDHOShCp3MkOpLdtZF4glWWPxD4iJfZTuMIYqt-nefe49uZXg0iu462CS6qjGwJivi1XZ-hwl8W5Mzr-j0ix5Y9vy/s1318/IMG_0018.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1318" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3aJt-lnBE_EnuOOm42TSDO4j7EZTanyS9dI-jU63OdLLLkKKfgGTDHOShCp3MkOpLdtZF4glWWPxD4iJfZTuMIYqt-nefe49uZXg0iu462CS6qjGwJivi1XZ-hwl8W5Mzr-j0ix5Y9vy/w640-h416/IMG_0018.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;">Strong Storm Stretches Offshore the Cape<br /> as viewed from Cape Canaveral (5/5/21)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>RECAP</u></b>: As was expected, there was a marginal risk of a 'severe' category storm yesterday -- there was one such observable storm over the Northern Cape Region of Playalinda Beach on an 'observation tower', albeit those winds were a bit above ground. Regardless - it qualified. Otherwise, no qualifiable severe conditions were observed elsewhere or at least none were reported by anyone. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPa6-SfRbNm0LT5jw3VcL70PK3E2pDR6hAPCTgU0vK__L3Mlw0IbqMS45jS_CWdtoqrnmGr1aDwHFEsZy8ilmVBTi0v2LAOSsftDsAOpqlfw1ghLk2_jcEmERoc0z5UoBHKnerdhVnSTw4/s783/BlogsLSR-MLB5521.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="769" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPa6-SfRbNm0LT5jw3VcL70PK3E2pDR6hAPCTgU0vK__L3Mlw0IbqMS45jS_CWdtoqrnmGr1aDwHFEsZy8ilmVBTi0v2LAOSsftDsAOpqlfw1ghLk2_jcEmERoc0z5UoBHKnerdhVnSTw4/w628-h640/BlogsLSR-MLB5521.jpg" width="628" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwBJ8wUe3PcU-WtkyNT-A2v8fi6XN1uZ3j-7Thl7r2bSPydfqo2q0Rgduz77QB4ngl7KcXfy7-Mv9ZY34X5svPRQmbsWvD4gVrKfxX9CQGa6cmHj71GjcjY00KK1k2PhIanFsaFEGB8QU4/s1378/IMG_0010.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1378" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwBJ8wUe3PcU-WtkyNT-A2v8fi6XN1uZ3j-7Thl7r2bSPydfqo2q0Rgduz77QB4ngl7KcXfy7-Mv9ZY34X5svPRQmbsWvD4gVrKfxX9CQGa6cmHj71GjcjY00KK1k2PhIanFsaFEGB8QU4/w640-h398/IMG_0010.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TODAY</b>: Today looks to have a bit more going for it to support 'severe CAT' weather over and above yesterday - at least as of mid-morning. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">One big difference today from yesterday - the mid-upper level temperatures per the RAP short term model are to lower significantly as we enter into early afternoon. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">As such, lower to mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy (along with increasing instability) coupling that with where the East Coast Sea Breeze sets up (which will be VERY close to the coast, possibly no further inland than US1) to meet up with the West Coast Sea breeze - -- and 'assuming' we get amply prolonged insolation (near unrestricted heating)...the stage could be set for a SUDDEN explosive storm or two very close to the beaches (or just off shore) after the 2-3pm time frame. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Inhibiting factors, 'especially near to north of I-4, would be greater cloud coverage. Any larger area experiencing prolonged cloud cover might be able to be ruled out for a strong storm today (or any storm for that matter).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Regardless, though there could be a strong storm across the North Half of Volusia, expecting the greater risk (because the potential looks better) to be further south -- the region I'm seeing as of this hour for having the most potential for a severe category storm (possibly even due to Hail Size) would be from near Sanford - Titusville southward to South Melbourne Beach -- basically anywhere in Brevard (nearly) along and east of US1 and as far inland as Sanford or so. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWrSEbN_JpHfve5G7n1S9FMq1qzUOuHXhhEbCcYOFdFE-sp0U0i6Ni1l8Fq-VVLd9_vW8_Kcx3Bt0awmBqe9vURqZd3BggNuQZtlkF5rhiTo4cWjOoyECFyPJpOzFiHY1fJ5QUEXeOP0Q1/s856/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="719" data-original-width="856" height="538" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWrSEbN_JpHfve5G7n1S9FMq1qzUOuHXhhEbCcYOFdFE-sp0U0i6Ni1l8Fq-VVLd9_vW8_Kcx3Bt0awmBqe9vURqZd3BggNuQZtlkF5rhiTo4cWjOoyECFyPJpOzFiHY1fJ5QUEXeOP0Q1/w640-h538/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Much , however, assumes we even get an east coast sea breeze !</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> Otherwise, there is still a risk of strong to severe either way -- due to the <b><u>colder air aloft coming in nearly perfectly in sync with the peak heating hours of the day</u></b>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The factor that would increase the severe potential even more would be if the west coast sea breeze were to surprisingly just 'take off to the east' by early afternoon and meet the east coast one in perfect timing with the upper level features. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This does seem to be yet possibly (however (!)) ...so any delay in storm onset (especially south of I4)toward the 4-5PM time frame might mean a greater chance of a quick but severe category storm.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgZ7s1qCR1YT61wV8NJzc9M3KcWJipPknFJSjpKsrhdhb_TKUwEf8uqx00vXGmaD1GRgsxG-b7ZUtZ1eV1TVr6FnidFxq-BrAveMHb4UTbn3ihptKeVwZPcrZGUkfbVvNu-bSP-hhbVepr/s1304/IMG_0030.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1304" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgZ7s1qCR1YT61wV8NJzc9M3KcWJipPknFJSjpKsrhdhb_TKUwEf8uqx00vXGmaD1GRgsxG-b7ZUtZ1eV1TVr6FnidFxq-BrAveMHb4UTbn3ihptKeVwZPcrZGUkfbVvNu-bSP-hhbVepr/w640-h420/IMG_0030.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>BEYOND</b>: The front will pass down the state tonight and into Central Florida in the pre-dawn hours. It is expected to be entering South Central Florida shortly after sunrise - as such, rain chances go to zero by early or mid morning across that area. Still warm but much drier, with highs mostly in the mid-upper 80Fs .</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>SATURDAY</b>: Much cooler Friday night to Saturday morning. This might be our last shot at most of the areas (especially east of I95) of getting below 70F this season - or close to the last chance.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Beaches south of The Cape might still be able to tweak out a 70F reading Saturday morning as winds might just start to gain an on-shore component and now the ocean temperature is up to 80F ... ! It's really risen the past two week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>MOTHER'S DAY</b>: This day looks right around 'normal' across the boards temperature and rain chances wise. The better chance of any showers at all this day will be across South Florida but the warming trend will be beginning for a much warmer, and a bit wetter week ahead.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>LONG RANGE</u></b>: We might be in for a bit more of an active period coming mid-late week (next week) for several days. The signals are there in the GFS that that will be the case, at least for shower/thunderstorm activity - possibly over-night off shore -- all in all - it's NOT summer yet moisture wise. The Deep Moisture we see from the Tropics is in no way shown to be arriving just yet.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-88849491250793139752021-05-05T04:54:00.002-04:002021-05-05T04:54:10.254-04:00Potential for Strong Storms Today & Tomorrow (East Central)<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt7Aw01OJ_KCth4pxVaEkAKmJ8y86y2x8kEl0_gZAV5iif-jY4H8DxQHSjFuR6A-NtnCC6YxIWGImJ5KiOQtVEU4sRVa8RA9tgJxHsvWLlpUhxgIZO4YkYf-VedcL5X8X7c4BrwqQ-hhzn/s1074/2015-05-05+oceanshower+013.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1074" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt7Aw01OJ_KCth4pxVaEkAKmJ8y86y2x8kEl0_gZAV5iif-jY4H8DxQHSjFuR6A-NtnCC6YxIWGImJ5KiOQtVEU4sRVa8RA9tgJxHsvWLlpUhxgIZO4YkYf-VedcL5X8X7c4BrwqQ-hhzn/w640-h426/2015-05-05+oceanshower+013.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">Very Early Morning Rainstorm Moving in on May 5, </span>2017</i></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><b><u>TODAY</u></b>: As of 'very early' this morning, prior to sunrise</span><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">, satellite interpretation indicates a large 'outflow boundary' emanating across North Florida pressing southward as a result of heavier rainfall and storm activity that had occurred over parts of Southern Alabama and Georgia yesterday/last night. (see image below)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This boundary will likely become indistinguishable by mid morning but nonetheless the 'energies' involved with it could well continue unrealized until late today / early this evening.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Temperatures aloft are expected to cool a few degrees very late this afternoon after a full day of insolation, resulting in ample instability (Convective Available Potential Energy) with some bulk shear (wind shear aloft) involved mainly from a Melbourne to Tampa line northward.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> Expect that this boundary will be will south of I-4 by late today as (meanwhile) the West Coast Sea breeze - which will be the dominant sea breeze today as steering for storms is from west to east (generally speaking)- meets up to the East Coast Sea Breeze. The West Coast/East Coast sea breeze collision as such seems most likely to occur east of the spine of the state, effectually (for storms) along a line from near Sanford southward toward Yeehaw Junction (southern Osceola County).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">All said and done, as of early this morning at least, it appears we could see a strong storm or two mainly across 'anywhere Brevard County toward Indian River County'. More 'isolated' activity could also occur mainly as a result of outflows from said 'possible storms' even later and further south toward Ft Pierce along a by then, 'retired Lake Okeechobee Breeze'.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The 'most likely time for storms to form and make impacts in regard to this particularly cited activity' is from around 6pm - 9pm across far Southeast Volusia County, western Brevard County toward the immediate coast (eventually), later then for perhaps </span><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">far NE Okeechobee County toward interior Indian River to St Lucie Counties . Otherwise, another warm day in store.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBcg_05SXwLaDFLtHbA1cldSeUt0LqYa7XLe4Y9DJx89B9jopaB4lvJNdRG6D-MYc4lD3K47wQqoGn5cA3XdlPNfVsfE1CkL6rAGTCP5ecXjrwbv6Ovg72a0asfFHQOUaMpvpZS2En-jjL/s1058/Blog1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="1058" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBcg_05SXwLaDFLtHbA1cldSeUt0LqYa7XLe4Y9DJx89B9jopaB4lvJNdRG6D-MYc4lD3K47wQqoGn5cA3XdlPNfVsfE1CkL6rAGTCP5ecXjrwbv6Ovg72a0asfFHQOUaMpvpZS2En-jjL/w640-h374/Blog1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>THURSDAY</u></b>: An actual frontal boundary will be working south of 1-10 ..into North Central Florida by late in the day. There is a RISK (marginal) of Severe Category storms (mainly due to wind) in much the same areas as noted in the graphic shown above in this blog post once again . Will not bother going into details for Thursday in this post as much will be revealed after today is through in regard to where any lingering boundaries after today's storms might eventually be the prime focus of storm activity tomorrow.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Again, for today it appears <b>the main player for today is the outflow boundary from the north combined with the merger of the West and East coast Sea breezes </b>which will provide low level lift along with a full day of insolation and mounting instability coupled with lowering upper level temperatures (which might be key). Of course, there is the chance all we'll see is 'generic' showers and some lightning, but given consistency now in several model runs of varying model guidance <b>will go with the <i>potentially strong to near severe early this evening for far eastern sections of East Central Florida</i></b>.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-26988972751577168762021-05-03T11:04:00.002-04:002021-05-03T11:04:41.942-04:00 Risk of a Strong/Marginally Severe Storm Late Today (East Central)<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizM-Z1QJTRlAKK7SLFfVs1qiilhPOf6M1yIKNJq0l68GjveRKpeI7TD_XhHLhmcF0AbZWZiM1lgpuF7LMCgJPH-Cnq_GycX5aoHsJpp8TGmMW1V8VELHjiKq5HTqk04vod6lLzJT6vAuLe/s1286/IMG_0026.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="1286" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizM-Z1QJTRlAKK7SLFfVs1qiilhPOf6M1yIKNJq0l68GjveRKpeI7TD_XhHLhmcF0AbZWZiM1lgpuF7LMCgJPH-Cnq_GycX5aoHsJpp8TGmMW1V8VELHjiKq5HTqk04vod6lLzJT6vAuLe/w640-h426/IMG_0026.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Late May Storm -2020 <br /> There are Signs / Signals today<br />Indicating that there is the potential <br />for a 'near severe storm' along and<br />east of I-95 Today</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TODAY</b>: First post in quite a while - as weather officially is getting into 'the warm' with no return to cold foreseen anywhere on the horizon. Ocean temperatures off East Central are getting closer to 80F now helping to make sea breeze - lake breeze boundaries potentially more effective than when the ocean is colder. That, and for today we have plenty of heating , just enough moisture (barely)..a good west coast dominate sea breeze to work east across the state, lack of strong 'suppression from aloft' plus cold air aloft and some wind shear combined all could help make a situation for 'pre-summer thunderstorm like' activity with the bonus of winds and cold dry air aloft to add some punch to the crunch.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The best chance of a strong storm today, IF one can form, appears would be near to just east of I-95 from Volusia County southward down toward inland Palm Beach County and around the Big Lake (Okeechobee).</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBMvW_tmwL64mrOYYScTdzA2Wgirops8LQnmQE82Lm_Z_x41TqUYC3iMtExMI9f7oB75Wyczdi2SHiQaS3Q2hPku3quiG6nde2Wa9LIhY_ugSS_h9h8dzj-Wgz9UOBLZLC3y5vgxCLM0ZS/s968/COD-Satellite-and-Radar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="968" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBMvW_tmwL64mrOYYScTdzA2Wgirops8LQnmQE82Lm_Z_x41TqUYC3iMtExMI9f7oB75Wyczdi2SHiQaS3Q2hPku3quiG6nde2Wa9LIhY_ugSS_h9h8dzj-Wgz9UOBLZLC3y5vgxCLM0ZS/w640-h496/COD-Satellite-and-Radar.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Noting that late in the day though wind across much of the state will be from the Southwest the East coast sea breeze running 'up the coast' form the SE-SSE combined with the winds of Lake Okeechobee could set up for two to even a three way boundary collision (s) later further north toward Brevard County. Watch out especially if near the rivers (esp. the Banana River) the late afternoon wind in that area seems unusually gusty (!). All eyes to the W - SW after 5pm if you are on the Barrier Islands.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Morning sounds are showing an INVERTED - "V" profile with drier air closer to the ground, a layer of very moist air, then colder and drier air above that. The D-CAPE values (Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy) as such then is more than sufficient by all indications combined with the cold air aloft to result in wind gusts in the 50-60mph (at least) , hence adding in that risk (and/or for small hail as well).</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhaLfWkT_PXNv4KNcg4VNOmu0jPXx0222MV0_isgAmJ5xvk9coFguDzPH4YXwPQjSjNXGPmJyP2uCsfQaXLZaHemweuq5hyphenhyphenhetuwmPjxKqUGnXsMQdFfQoqk40nv9UDCbWRFGvbvOf5wc/s610/Sounding-Skew-T-and-Hodograph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="610" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhaLfWkT_PXNv4KNcg4VNOmu0jPXx0222MV0_isgAmJ5xvk9coFguDzPH4YXwPQjSjNXGPmJyP2uCsfQaXLZaHemweuq5hyphenhyphenhetuwmPjxKqUGnXsMQdFfQoqk40nv9UDCbWRFGvbvOf5wc/w640-h392/Sounding-Skew-T-and-Hodograph.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The big question though is IF a storm can get really started in the environment that is forecast to set up later today. At this time, things are not quite sufficient, and much can change as we get past the <i><b>noon- 1PM time frame</b></i>. <b>It may be at that time (even) that it will become apparent that any storm risk at all will have vanished -- but then again, it might be come apparent that the risk is even greater yet still (!)</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">End of story is, the best chance for strong storm at this point seems to be near interior Indian River County and again from around Port St John toward Titusville/Mims corridor southward into North/Central Brevard County after 5:30PM or so.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> <b><u>TOMORROW-THURSDAY</u></b>: Again, more chances for storms in the afternoon, especially on WEDNESDAY. Temperatures aloft might warm a little bit tomorrow so not so sure about strong activity (or even much at all except more inland) but that day is not yet here so will be watching.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">So far, the GFS model has been hitting pretty hard on WEDNESDAY for much better coverage and possibly some stronger storms then as well. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoWACy_mdkKHhamD_TMTQBtOh3ZiyuvXZoTCIrQKWdBzbwV3YfehBk42pE10fbMsLDnhxzjRKaKAHLrze6KKMNIpLo4dX_D_Bpy-XE9oyW1x4bgGUGF8lOmGM0IRL-nqHdI8Su4ieTXcVS/s2048/IMG_0024.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1366" data-original-width="2048" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoWACy_mdkKHhamD_TMTQBtOh3ZiyuvXZoTCIrQKWdBzbwV3YfehBk42pE10fbMsLDnhxzjRKaKAHLrze6KKMNIpLo4dX_D_Bpy-XE9oyW1x4bgGUGF8lOmGM0IRL-nqHdI8Su4ieTXcVS/w640-h426/IMG_0024.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-32478321743893408362020-12-26T13:01:00.001-05:002020-12-26T13:01:23.767-05:00Potential For "Overnight Warm Up" Along A1A Tonight<p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> T<b>he end of the coldest days of the 2020-21 Winter Season so far are drawing to an end after yet another 'cold' day today and again tomorrow morning (mainly inland and toward the West Side of the State).</b> NNW to N winds during the day today will keep it quite cool (well below normal); however, winds are expected to become more N-NNE-NE overnight tonight, mainly right at the beaches (mostly from near The Cape and South). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><i>Most guidance is hinting at at WARM UP after midnight </i></b>at some point between 2AM-5AM <u>along the outermost barrier islands of Brevard</u> (along A1A strip) southward toward Southeast Florida and around to the Keys -- that is to say, what I'd consider to be 'often the Warmest Location in the Entire Country' on some winter (and fall) mornings. <b>Yes, the warmest location in the entire country is fairly often the Barrier Islands of Brevard and south through The Keys</b>, and by tomorrow morning we might have one of those cases.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Though temperatures might fall toward dark I'm thinking they will level off in these locations and then even begin to rise slowly at some point after midnight. Thus, for those especially along and even East of A1A <b><u>you might</u></b> <i>find warmer temperatures at 5AM tomorrow morning than what it will be at say 8-10PM tonight</i> by as much as as 5-10F degrees (!). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">We will see. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Along with any warming will be cloud cover as well. The Latest HRRR implies we could see some High Cirrus (rather dense) begin to stream overhead during the night which alone could stop or slow down temperature falls, but then we could see some patches of low cloud advect onshore as well. <b>As you can see , there is PLENTY of low clouds just off shore the Florida East Coast as of NOON TIME</b> this Saturday afternoon, as shown in this Noon time visible Satellite Image below.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKGSr2dg_KkdRINk2CgWtcPZPlWvVf4qgWCXKnUkQjdNSPoLb_0gmXPqeb3R6U7z8dD7FeEWbAkG3cKUwObwtzNjTmOP2uev4769nqv7VT8xx5vPYZAJPHKgbpjmGCBSRHjxdx_azC_3Un/s1100/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="1100" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKGSr2dg_KkdRINk2CgWtcPZPlWvVf4qgWCXKnUkQjdNSPoLb_0gmXPqeb3R6U7z8dD7FeEWbAkG3cKUwObwtzNjTmOP2uev4769nqv7VT8xx5vPYZAJPHKgbpjmGCBSRHjxdx_azC_3Un/w640-h402/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY</u></b>: Apart from the 'potential' overnight warming discussed above, it will warm up anyway after sunrise (well into the mid-upper 60Fs) tomorrow, depending on overall cloud cover (though). Too many clouds would keep a better warm up at bay. Regardless, <b><u>after Sunday morning the cold spell is OVER</u></b> at long last for several days to come.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>MONDAY</u></b>: And that is not the end of it for the east coast. Latest 4KM NAM shows <b>continued 'surging' of warmer air to encroach on the East Coast overnight Sunday evening into Monday Morning.</b> Yes, Monday Morning along the east coast could well be in the mid-60Fs south of the Cape right at the beaches, or at least in the lower 60Fs. A 20F degree warm up from Friday and Saturday mornings...that is going into Early Tuesday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">T<b><u>UESDAY-THURSDAY:</u></b> Normal to a bit above 'normal' temperatures as we warm up. Looks like a chance of <b>Rain Showers could occur mainly along The Treasure Coast (Vero Beach toward West Palm Beach area) however sometime going into Sunday night and/or Monday</b>, but Brevard looks to stay dry at this point.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>NEW YEAR'S EVE - DAY:</u></b> Thursday Night Midnight is New Year's Eve Night going into 2021. At current time the GFS model has a cold front stretched North/South Down the state of Florida on this Very Night. Timing this far out is questionable, so at this point it's 'the general idea'. It appears there 'might' be again the 'risk' or 'threat' of severe weather with this frontal boundary (mainly due to strong wind gusts). The model is showing a better chance of RAINfall though (at this point) than it ever did with the previous front. So the overall gist is,<b> NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT</b>, especially after 9PM could become increasingly risking of rain chances, even storms - and be quite breezy - But at least it won't be cold (!)..it <b>will be a WARM EVENING</b> if the front holds off until after midnight, at least if one lives east of I95.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>NEW YEAR's DAY:</u></b> Latest Guidance has really slowed down on the timing of this next front AND held back on 'Temperature Impacts' from it as well. Actually, it shows the front not making a 'clean passage' across the state until well into the afternoon on New Year's Day - this leaves a lot up in the air (therefore) as to when exactly cloud cover and/or rain chances will end (if not begin even as well) during the time frame from Sunset New Year's Eve to Sunset New Year's Day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> That entire Day, therefore, is still one big Question Mark in regard to Rain chances and as such temperatures as well. It looks certain at this point that <b>New Year's Day will not be a cold day</b>, but rather see temperatures in the Lower 70Fs (at this point).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>FOLLOWING NEW YEAR'S DAY:</u></b> No Big COLD Spell. Temperatures look now to be generally around 'normal' to a tad below with the next front is about it. Lows at the beach perhaps in the lower 50Fs and bit colder inland, with highs in the upper 60Fs, lower 70Fs with one Big Caveat. The GFS is showing a Very Sudden Change to occur just off the Florida East Coast overnight Sunday with a Coastal Trough forming into a Closed Low that gets quite potent. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Rain chances near the coast pick up and winds make a rapid shift to the north...all within a 12 hour window. This Time Frame bears watching - looks very 'skeptical' at this point to me - regardless, it has been rather consistent in the attempt to pick up that 'something' might go on during this time frame which bears watching.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-74484261943584939652020-12-24T12:08:00.003-05:002020-12-24T12:08:18.570-05:00Coldest Christmas Since 1995 Possible - Storms/Cold Rain on The Way Tonight<p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> The advertised <b><u>potent </u>cold front</b> is well on its way early this afternoon now passing through the Panhandle Region. Ahead of the front wind is going to be picking up out of the southwest and be gusting at times as cloud coverage comes and goes. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5tgUeojdieueqQIV_1ppM6jWt3HbdQXKPLGbLcvVHgCcovfDE0jSU6NP9_u4krrdiFrd5Hmxs1P6FS9wIfqtazmiTjHQa93f686shg-QTS13zf7pAv-B9AGSNoceafb_c1d0s72_6g2X6/s967/Blog4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="967" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5tgUeojdieueqQIV_1ppM6jWt3HbdQXKPLGbLcvVHgCcovfDE0jSU6NP9_u4krrdiFrd5Hmxs1P6FS9wIfqtazmiTjHQa93f686shg-QTS13zf7pAv-B9AGSNoceafb_c1d0s72_6g2X6/w640-h416/Blog4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Winds at the surface will be SSW-SW whereas winds in the mid-upper levels are from the west to west-northwest. Animation of visible satellite imagery clearly shows low level clouds moving northward at the same time high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. This <b><i>'change of wind with height' </i></b>(and strong winds aloft at that) is the main-key to the <b><i>severe weather potential</i></b> though there is instability as well mainly south of I-4 across the Eastern Half of the state. Thus, for BLOG Purposes highlighted only that area for any strong/severe risk (as shown above).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> Be that as it may, model guidance of 'simulated radar' is not really showing any severe storms - but despite that - strong winds at the ground could occur if a stronger updraft does get going. At this time, T<b>he Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has almost all of the state under a 'Marginal Risk' of severe weather into this evening.</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSaSBWyp8iKlXckgm2IxctO94wKCg3JXQFjP9YHaOUwJB3qQ-fx-nf4H-YoU6wYccjJ1Qyk7CKk1GHcQfnXCozpjoglSN8R-WDJUNyXKTRUrF5onUHnmTpv_xQyWYqMfZY7oW_QcFjEn0U/s752/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="752" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSaSBWyp8iKlXckgm2IxctO94wKCg3JXQFjP9YHaOUwJB3qQ-fx-nf4H-YoU6wYccjJ1Qyk7CKk1GHcQfnXCozpjoglSN8R-WDJUNyXKTRUrF5onUHnmTpv_xQyWYqMfZY7oW_QcFjEn0U/w640-h442/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Otherwise, <u>the COLD FRONT PROPER is anticipated (per models) to stretch (<b>as shown ABOVE</b>) across Central Florida from near Port Canaveral to Sarasota around 10PM this evening</u>. Several models agree in this timed positioning of the boundary give or take two hours either side of 10PM. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">It might too be noted that <b><u>light to moderate rain might occur AFTER the front has passed</u></b> which means <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">a COLD WINDY RAIN</span></b> with temperatures in the lower-mid 50FS for a few hours AFTER the cold front passes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Granted, by that time hopefully all will be well settled in 'for a long winter's nap' - as it will be around midnight to the wee hours not fit for a mouse that the colder rain will or might occur during.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>I've included the earlier 'Forecast Discussion' from the National Weather Service (NWS) from Melbourne (MLB) that highlights much of the same mentioned herein</b> .</span> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRR9QGObeg1-siOBM0OoMEKH-FUYcyYEj6AQi3P-ZG89GkiycH6bKxRjei8P7AHKQvjZ_1O6vlW0CXhgkgyCh5MpPT_eqTL4FmPfiWcj-UGOb4wM4JIVmmrNV_cbvlOWHue2s22RX_YecV/s862/Blog3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="857" data-original-width="862" height="636" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRR9QGObeg1-siOBM0OoMEKH-FUYcyYEj6AQi3P-ZG89GkiycH6bKxRjei8P7AHKQvjZ_1O6vlW0CXhgkgyCh5MpPT_eqTL4FmPfiWcj-UGOb4wM4JIVmmrNV_cbvlOWHue2s22RX_YecV/w640-h636/Blog3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">It might too be noted that by Christmas Morning at sunrise temperatures might continue to fall or level off for much of the morning hours due to continued "Cold Air Advection' into the state from the northwest helped along with winds gusting in the 18-28mph range for a while. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">It is expected that <b>most of Central Florida will not get much out of either the upper 40Fs or lower 50Fs on Christmas Day</b>. This might well be the coldest Christmas we've experienced since 1995 (though that one was much colder, well into and below freezing for several hours).</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgisTvFONlT8BU-UC_XshRGMSvbIHzI_vbyhn7HBhgtCMWHHxuG-zTfsT_JL1Nm3f2ErMg0LIglwvj4fQx4UoXzXk7FBTl5C4Zp1uVHgWliYn7_OwYTplKFEg1hWtrCUT265MMX-uEYpvN1/s650/blog1a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="650" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgisTvFONlT8BU-UC_XshRGMSvbIHzI_vbyhn7HBhgtCMWHHxuG-zTfsT_JL1Nm3f2ErMg0LIglwvj4fQx4UoXzXk7FBTl5C4Zp1uVHgWliYn7_OwYTplKFEg1hWtrCUT265MMX-uEYpvN1/w640-h446/blog1a.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">By Christmas Evening winds will be backing off under clearing skies, but temperatures will also fall once again. <b>Saturday morning will be colder than Christmas Morning, with low-mid 30F readings possible all the way around to the south side of Lake Okeechobee (in the interior regions).</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Across Central Florida we'll mostly see 'mid to upper 30Fs' possibly even right at the coast with Freezings possible near/along the Route 27 corridor - though expect it might be closer to 40F along the outer most barrier islands. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Either way, Saturday is going to be the colder of the two mornings, with Sunday morning not far behind. Warming trend, though at first slowly, commences Sunday afternoon and runs through until New Year's Eve.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpVYLErgZB-EwppK0JOMHVZLs319kcBiMn9S_UpMjn3iPHC9ZXPRXIk7V9QmA07hTyqqiU8aW2DQ5_YrX9osSVMpnsome7cVAoqjnFy7DbpYvdXPEl9ibYPd9FaWPt-zayAHXeTiuBIVm7/s692/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="692" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpVYLErgZB-EwppK0JOMHVZLs319kcBiMn9S_UpMjn3iPHC9ZXPRXIk7V9QmA07hTyqqiU8aW2DQ5_YrX9osSVMpnsome7cVAoqjnFy7DbpYvdXPEl9ibYPd9FaWPt-zayAHXeTiuBIVm7/w640-h440/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The next 'bigger front' is on tap as of now to enter Florida on 'New Year's Eve'. There was one year I recall we had a 'Severe Thunderstorm Watch' issued on Christmas Eve followed later by a 'Tornado Watch' on New Year's Eve - that was at least 20 years ago, though I remember it well. The timing is about right between systems (one week) this time of year for such. At time, not anticipating we will see a 'severe thunderstorm watch' though with this system. The next cold front around New Year's Time Frame is at this point not forecast to be as 'potent' in terms of cold air.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-21879900182818781172020-12-22T14:04:00.002-05:002020-12-22T14:04:52.370-05:00Good Chance of Rain / Storm Christmas Eve - Cold Christmas Day & Day After<p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> <span style="color: red;"><b>Warming trend</b></span> commences later today into the overnight (especially notable right along the Eastern most barrier islands by Wednesday morning) as high pressure north of the state drifts eastward resulting in northeast wind (though light) later today and all through the night. There is a chance, however, that the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure will not over-come the diurnal cooling effects overnight tonight, thus allowing a 'land breeze' to 'win the day' at the coast instead. Overall, inland areas will still be quite cool Wednesday morning, but the outer most barrier islands do <b>have a chance</b> that at some point <u>after 3-4AM they will actually warm to the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs</u> rather than be in the lower 50Fs. Otherwise, no rain.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><span style="color: red;">The warming trend</span> continues through the 23rd (Wednesday) and into the 24th (*Christmas Eve) as wind becomes southwesterly and increases. We could see mid-<b><span style="color: red;">upper 70Fs on Christmas Eve Day</span></b> -- it might even be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">On the other hand, a line of potentially strong storms will be entering the Panhandle Region by early-mid morning and be progressing eastward ahead of a potent Cold Front. There is a risk that some storm activity might go up well ahead of the actual line too, specifically across South Central toward South Florida (from a line near Cape Canaveral to Sarasota and south) at any time after 3 or 4pm Christmas Eve. Though that is an outlier risk, the better chance of rain now appears to be at some point between 6:30pm - 9pm in the evening.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">There is <i><u>a chance still that some activity could be strong/severe</u></i> <b>but the official outlets are not calling for that </b>to be the case -regardless, we will have strong shear overhead - so at least it could get 'very windy' when the rains come in , whenever that will be.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJcj6m-CbXWhuTJSLWR3f1vq-NMjA3pp5-xxK-CTqW_fkwM478tEkC6-aVIjyIu0zhPF3dap4e7I_22hnnfP3itKXJe3Bq9ZKJZnsVV7jQ1L4unvlsg1V0eLsZCLh7-AN3APd6NKp1XnzA/s913/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="913" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJcj6m-CbXWhuTJSLWR3f1vq-NMjA3pp5-xxK-CTqW_fkwM478tEkC6-aVIjyIu0zhPF3dap4e7I_22hnnfP3itKXJe3Bq9ZKJZnsVV7jQ1L4unvlsg1V0eLsZCLh7-AN3APd6NKp1XnzA/w640-h380/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: red;">CHRISTMAS </span><span style="color: #274e13;">DAY - Day After</span>:</span></u></b> The cold front itself is expected to be situated very close to Central Brevard County along a Northeast to Southwest Line some time around 8 or 9PM and be plowing southeastward through the state with solid cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures falling through the evening and into the morning hours accompanied by wind anywhere from 15mph -25mph with higher gusts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>Very cool and blustery ALL DAY Christmas Day</u></b> - the NAM model suggests that Central Florida won't even reach 50F degrees this day, but suspect overkill. In any case, highs may only be in the lower 50S to upper 40Fs across much of Central/North Central Florida (warmer south). Then, as darkness comes Christmas Evening, the wind should start to die off and temperatures will really go down.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">I've seen forecasts (such as from the Canadian model) showing upper 20Fs for interior portions of Central Florida on the morning of the 26th, but that is an outlier. Most guidance suggests mid-upper 30Fs just about everywhere and anywhere. <b>However we look at it, it's going to be a chilly morning on the 26th and the 27th (not so much along the coast on the 27th). </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">DECEMBER 28:</u> There will be a gradual warm up toward 'normal' temperatures beginning Sunday afternoon but it might be brief, as it looks like <b><u>a re-enforcing front is going to be coming through</u></b> (dry) only to keep the temperatures to below normal (though not as cold as what will be experienced on the 25th through the morning of the 27th).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>BEYOND</u></b>: No big 'really cold' spells are showing up as of yet -- just for fun I looked at a climatological forecast series and it showed that February might be above to well above 'normal' in regard to temperatures . Who knows, maybe these up coming days will be the 'coldest' we'll see all winter. </span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-47129794524066241492020-12-20T12:39:00.006-05:002020-12-20T12:39:44.630-05:00Cold For Christmas - Rain/Storms Today and Christmas Eve<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJsAZa6CZpYbCghPDFCKICNlESQwXCDQssi37p6k2P09deO-OdI1-31E9x_ahqu-_ejgoW9_umkwwIv0iU0VxVrMrQ0ApGVYdb6Kj01NroQU5Sdsp704k1VIqmV_SoEIexOCFSODxPNgZ_/s954/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="954" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJsAZa6CZpYbCghPDFCKICNlESQwXCDQssi37p6k2P09deO-OdI1-31E9x_ahqu-_ejgoW9_umkwwIv0iU0VxVrMrQ0ApGVYdb6Kj01NroQU5Sdsp704k1VIqmV_SoEIexOCFSODxPNgZ_/w640-h418/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Will leave this weekend post brief but to make out a few points in continuity from the previous post.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>As of 12 noon Sunday</b>, <u>there is a rotating storm in the western Gulf west of Tampa Bay</u>, which 'might' be producing a water spout or severe CAT wind. Will it make it ashore? Hard to know.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Regardless, the 4KM NAM and latest HRRR runs imply that some activity could hold together or at least get a bit organized as the approaching pre-frontal trough and cold front come across North to South Central Florida later today into tonight and through the post-midnight hours.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">As shown in the graphic above, there could be some 'heavy' activity as far east as the East Coast after dark tonight. <b><i>The HRRR even implies two separate periods of potentially enhanced activity across Eastern Parts , one around 8-10pm and another around 2-4AM Monday </i></b>morning. The 4KM NAM not so much so though. Since surface based instability will be weak to nearly non-existent at either time, chances are if there is any 'rotating going on' in storm structures it won't be realized at the ground by anything other than some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder, but it would behoove us not to at least mention it as after all, this is Florida in the 'winter' time frame and well, 'stuff happens'. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>Point is for later today and tonight</b> : Heads up, it could 'wind and rain' (or just rain) and be generally stormy (briefly) but then again <u>don't be surprised if you see little to no rain at all</u>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>MONDAY</b>: Skies will clear out during first half of day across all of North and Central Florida on this Day- December 21, other than perhaps the chance we'll see a good batch of Jet Stream Cirrus clouds overhead during the day which would stifle any full on sunshine(insolation) ..otherwise, highs still up into the 60Fs and maybe a low 70F here or there. Not cold behind this front, lows generally in the 50Fs to mid-upper 40Fs across isolated inland areas.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY</b>: Uneventful as wind swings from northwesterly eventually around to a light NE-E and eventually southeast direction by Thursday. Temperatures moderating to around normal and no rain foreseen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>THURSDAY</u></b>: Here we are again with <b><span style="color: red;">Christmas Eve</span></b> and the big question of will there be severe weather and if so , when.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> <b>It STILL looks like this frontal system will be a POTENT ONE</b> with strong shear aloft both from Speed and Directional Shear. I'd gander we'll be hearing about this one coming up on the news stations once the week gets going, stay tuned (!). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> All in all, the GFS has 'timing for rain chances' to set up sometime as early for Eastern Half of Central Florida as just after 1pm and anywhere up through 8pm - which could conflict with Evening Christmas Eve Services (too). But again, <b><u>timing is still in question ;</u></b>that there could be strong storms is not in question.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CHRISTMAS DAY:</span></u></b> The jury seems to have convened and met with a verdict - <b>COLD and WINDY on Christmas Day</b>; in fact, <b><i>this day into the next could be the coldest '36-48 hour Period' of cold temperatures we've seen</i></b> yet with highs barely getting out of the lower 50Fs most areas. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS</b>: With wind letting up by this day, it appears to be the colder but less windy. The GFS implies mid-upper 30Fs along and west of US1 or I95, but again, this is still several days out and will change frequently up until mid week next week at least; however, at this point t<b>he GFS has not let up on the Signal of Cold temperatures</b> and word has it that the Euro model agrees.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">A glance at <u>the CANADIAN model</u> shows that rain/storms might not move in until after 8PM Christmas Eve night, but does show cold air as well, <i><span style="color: #990000;">even mid-upper 30Fs near the beaches on Saturday morning </span></i>the 26h, the Day after Christmas. It also shows high temperatures on Christmas Day perhaps not even reaching 50F from Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Brr...(with wind).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>IN Summary</u></b> - best chance of Rain and Storms is later today and tonight (overnight)...and again on Christmas Eve Day somewhere after 1pm to as late as 8pm - 3AM Christmas Morning. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The other big story is m<b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">uch Colder Temperatures Christmas Day and the Day afterward.</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><u>Last Fling</u>: Watching the time frame around New Year's Eve for 'heavy weather' as well.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-82543989482836987942020-12-18T12:34:00.004-05:002020-12-18T12:34:41.397-05:00WARMING Tonight - 'Potential Severe' Sunday Night & Christmas Eve; ? <p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">After a very cool start to the day with a wind chill effect, the wind this afternoon will begin to shift more northerly to eventually NNE-NE or even ENE by tomorrow morning. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The net effect of the change in wind direction will be most realized along the Florida East Coast , especially from the Cape and south. Low level patchy stratocumulus clouds will advect in along the coast overhead and a modified air mass from cool wind blowing across warmer ocean waters will begin to advect (move) on shore, especially from The Cape and South late this afternoon into early evening.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF14aA7qnWItGX5T9hQy15UbJzJdF_ri52aUqFy3bs0zWKXvJkHRIG6TxRpE3VprxemogfagmulPXv2RisBANPfrry1-b5rRuA5gZ34uB9RnB07ER-NIJU2MX_B8_r4TDfJK6pN-fr_gfv/s782/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="782" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF14aA7qnWItGX5T9hQy15UbJzJdF_ri52aUqFy3bs0zWKXvJkHRIG6TxRpE3VprxemogfagmulPXv2RisBANPfrry1-b5rRuA5gZ34uB9RnB07ER-NIJU2MX_B8_r4TDfJK6pN-fr_gfv/w640-h392/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /> </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This will continue to be true throughout the evening with continued patches of clouds and modifying (warming) air. <b>It is possible that the 'High Temperature" for the day will end up occurring shortly before midnight for the Barrier Islands</b> of Brevard / Indian River Counties, possibly parts of far Eastern Volusia County as well. <b>Thus, by morning these areas could be seeing <i>'morning lows'</i> in the low 60Fs when <i>'afternoon highs'</i> were in the mid - upper 50Fs.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SATURDAY</u></b>: Continued veering of winds to easterly will affect most of the peninsula after sunrise Saturday morning - warmer all areas with highs generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, some lower 70Fs possible, especially for South Central/South Florida. Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with maybe even a period of light rain patches along the east coast, especially late in the day to overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning (but brief and very isolated if so).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY</u></b>: A complicated situation is showing to evolve over the northern Gulf south of The Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night / early Monday. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The NAM model is really hitting hard that primarily wind fields at all levels will become increasingly accommodating for overnight severe weather with bulk and directional shear being the impetus. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Let it be known that at this time<b> THERE IS NO WORD out for even 'potentially severe weather' from official sources;</b> however, given the NAM's consistency in the past two runs (and increasingly so) in regard to the shearing winds over night time , and the GFS starting to join ranks, it might be advised to give at least a 'heads up' being that a strong tornado recently hit along the West Coast on a day when there was not even a tornado watch.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhay7XCmbfNp5ktJLDlykEHrWgpzot_r85ZJjxo_Gd8IGFXyQ49Q_N4eS-ZoZmf52bUkDqdZk33b-OImwNfKi_14QI5iFu1T_2DMhEuGxLN6KmxUkrnyi8af9ZOyVR0ccE7PsEdRoFXw15y/s742/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="575" data-original-width="742" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhay7XCmbfNp5ktJLDlykEHrWgpzot_r85ZJjxo_Gd8IGFXyQ49Q_N4eS-ZoZmf52bUkDqdZk33b-OImwNfKi_14QI5iFu1T_2DMhEuGxLN6KmxUkrnyi8af9ZOyVR0ccE7PsEdRoFXw15y/w640-h496/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>MONDAY</u></b>: The GFS/NAM regardless both point to the next rain chances associated with a system to be late Sunday/early Monday - the frontal boundary to pass through is not forecast to be followed by a blast of cold air but rather keep temperatures at to maybe just a tad below 'normal' for this time of year. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: </u></b>These days look quite pleasant with lighter wind and cool but not cold mornings; the immediate east coast could see lows in the low-mid 60Fs with a light onshore wind component even ushering in lower to mid 60Fs at sunrise with highs in the 70Fs. Cooler mornings away from the coast (west of US1).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><span style="color: #274e13;">THURSDAY (Christmas Eve)</span></u></b> This period of time being a week away is still a BIG question mark, but be it as it may and given that this is a Busy Afternoon & Evening for many people for multiple reasons - will advise that <b>don't</b> <b>EXPECT (or plan) </b>that it will be an assuredly dry period of time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The GFS in the past THREE runs is giving a signal of rain, possibly thunderstorms occurring across the Big Bend into at least North Central and parts of Central Florida from late morning into the mid-evening hours. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">The <b>latest </b>GFS implies <i><u>in my mind </u></i>that without a doubt there will be Severe Weather (tornadoes possible) Central Florida Christmas Eve from 2pm -10pm time frame based only on the last model run (to note). Granted , it is WAY too soon to be talking 'tornadoes' at this stage - and the forecast will very likely change multiple times between now and then. For now, at least a heads up for a pretty good rain chance (for starters) for planning purposes if need be. More to follow in later posts -- and/or <b><u>keep eyes and ears attuned to future OFFICIAL FOECASTS </u></b>especially.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u><span style="color: red;">CHRISTMAS DAY:</span></u></b> Given the above, will go out on the next limb - that being as of the last two GFS runs Christmas Day is showing up to be a cold day, "<u><span style="color: red;">perhaps" the coldest day yet we'll have seen this season</span></u>. The latest run is showing it to be , but all things aside that could easily change even by tomorrow morning's model run. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">All in all, the overall general scenario is that<b> an active weather pattern is going to begin to take shape OVERNIGHT TONIGHT</b> first with a Coastal Warm up (!) but then what follows in the coming week with all of its 'potentials' and variables in forms of weather will make things 'interesting'.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-5684004618860167592020-12-10T20:47:00.001-05:002020-12-10T20:47:51.969-05:00Florida Weather Page<a href="https://kamala.cod.edu/fl/">Florida Weather Page</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-16167297438033781922020-12-05T13:11:00.001-05:002020-12-05T13:11:27.046-05:00Clearing Most Everywhere on the Way! But More Active Weather is Not Far Away<p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"> <b><u>TODAY</u></b>: Clearing line near SR 528 and west is slowly eroding and dropping southward behind the weak cold front boundary that entered Central Brevard - Orange County right at sunrise, which today was at 7AM . Sunset this evening is at 5:27PM.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjePZToO_4gznYA8fWC3YvJ5Hi4tJWkysJ2DQyAJ4izLBNjnF-BIOQwwts22rCkwuB_k5QfEHiBJWjujfqqE4tB2MyycbSQl7ueIqtNFEvrkGeEVgdZZyxWWUyCX8zkUrOJ-dLPXb4TY-Ue/s770/blog1a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="770" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjePZToO_4gznYA8fWC3YvJ5Hi4tJWkysJ2DQyAJ4izLBNjnF-BIOQwwts22rCkwuB_k5QfEHiBJWjujfqqE4tB2MyycbSQl7ueIqtNFEvrkGeEVgdZZyxWWUyCX8zkUrOJ-dLPXb4TY-Ue/w640-h430/blog1a.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><br /></span></p>Only sparse traces of rain was occurring with the boundary as it entered the area earlier this morning.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Temperatures will be mild this afternoon along and north of the boundary, but warmer and bit muggier south of it. Otherwise...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_XM2z7hwX6XUVjLJb5EF1VXYLIytFYL4fyNMTOB3qPEac9t_uFCuv6VlW1maoyz4dbZLIGB3_AynT5lGX5CEWHZ7Ltx2kRSA_Q7nGYbj0gyOHOX7Tx-VtJCZkv41mFvwW0cz_GAR6ypt/s1050/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="1050" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_XM2z7hwX6XUVjLJb5EF1VXYLIytFYL4fyNMTOB3qPEac9t_uFCuv6VlW1maoyz4dbZLIGB3_AynT5lGX5CEWHZ7Ltx2kRSA_Q7nGYbj0gyOHOX7Tx-VtJCZkv41mFvwW0cz_GAR6ypt/w640-h346/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><u style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><b><p><u style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";"><b><br /></b></u></p>TONIGHT</b></u><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">: Cooler all areas especially along and north of I4. Tonight into Sunday looks like we'll be running close to "normal' for this time of year..50Fs and low-mid 70Fs. Clouds should clear out well, but only concern (if you could call it that) is how cool it will be along the immediate Barrier Islands, especially the eastern most beaches where a slight onshore component of northerly flow might end up busting a temperature forecast by being warmer --<b><i>it might cool earlier then warm up some to lower 60Fs near sunrise</i></b> from the Cape and south along the A1A strip. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">Too hard to know for certain. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "IBM Plex Mono";">Regardless, the wind will be swinging around to NE to ENE after daybreak Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how soon mid-high level cloud cover begins to move in.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY</u></b>: Day should start mainly clear and cool (as noted above) with clouds increasing, thickening late from near noon time and on. Just exactly 'HOW CLOUDY" it will get is debatable. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Perhaps most of the clouds will even hold off until after dark but suspect we'll be seeing a mid-late afternoon mid-upper level ceiling develop. No rain foreseen Sunday for any of Central of South Florida except perhaps after 10PM Sunday evening.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY OVERNIGHT-MONDAY:</u></b> Best rain chances to begin after MIDNIGHT and run on through early-mid morning. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>The biggest change since the previous post is:</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">RAINS arriving a good 6 hours later than previously thought</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">RAINs thus remaining a good 6 hours later than previously though; and</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><i>BAND of LARGEST/HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS </i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><i>has shifted south on both the GFS/NAM forecasts</i></b></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRb1lwgpY740Dpb3BQmW0Is739_1l-qCxYviYWMNOsAYB0voYrjzPavQZvBe9eyobUoylwy4_VYgonCFLqfGaQaRvJS_w7S5hVtPwiBSLkjvue3em75_Zu52Kyvmp2Fs1WFzNtdQZQuTXa/s607/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="607" height="506" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRb1lwgpY740Dpb3BQmW0Is739_1l-qCxYviYWMNOsAYB0voYrjzPavQZvBe9eyobUoylwy4_VYgonCFLqfGaQaRvJS_w7S5hVtPwiBSLkjvue3em75_Zu52Kyvmp2Fs1WFzNtdQZQuTXa/w640-h506/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY:</u></b> No change in forecast from this point on. Fains eventually end everywhere by late morning through mid afternoon Monday ..clearing..then Tuesday will be VERY cool and unlikely we'll see 60F over Central/North Central or if so , barely. Lows well inland running the 40Fs spectrum with the Barrier Islands closer to low 50Fs and maybe some upper 40Fs for Tuesday and Wednesday morning</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>WEDNESDAY</b>: Cool to cold this morning, it might end up being much colder inland this morning than models are showing as we should have clear skies and nearly ZERO wind over the state by then. Otherwise, the beachside is looking at upper 40Fs/Lower 50Fs mainly with light winds. Should be able to breach into the 60Fs everywhere this day.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>THURSDAY</b>: Similar to Wednesday only a Bit warmer all around. HIghs could reach near 70F this day</span>.</p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-26632832579230093062020-12-04T14:00:00.002-05:002020-12-04T14:00:46.924-05:00Potential "Rain Event" Coming Sunday Night - Much Cooler Next Week<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4VR8bi6GOzXDGiLwVKEU2MXE6CihH6kxMSHlbqaHdV5WQ4haHJMS0buqXTcojMkWPnW0bOU20gFtbLWamBGTqwz-ws87ewYqU-L7pjijxA1p-1rNMGyEoXNBmK12qjYk7AzbhBXLKTQOT/s2048/DSC00019.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1360" data-original-width="2048" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4VR8bi6GOzXDGiLwVKEU2MXE6CihH6kxMSHlbqaHdV5WQ4haHJMS0buqXTcojMkWPnW0bOU20gFtbLWamBGTqwz-ws87ewYqU-L7pjijxA1p-1rNMGyEoXNBmK12qjYk7AzbhBXLKTQOT/w640-h424/DSC00019.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b>TODAY</b>: Continued cloudy into Tonight, overnight and early Saturday. A 'cool front' will be slicing south and across the state late today into tonight and reach Central Florida proper very close to the 6-7AM time frame and continue southward. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Most (if any) rainfall associated with the boundary will occur north of I-4, as such most areas will see little to no rainfall with the front, or if so only for a brief period. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Temperatures across North and North Central will be much cooler Saturday afternoon and be a bit cooler Central whereas Far South Central / South Florida will not feel the effects of the boundary nearly as much.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>SUNDAY</u></b>: <b><i>MEANWHILE</i></b>, an upper level disturbance in the Mean Upper Level flow will be approaching the state and instigate the generation of a poorly organized low-mid level low pressure area aloft which will be enough to produce LIFT in the atmosphere as it approaches the latitude of South Central Florida (as it looks now). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This could cause the old surface front to lift back north somewhat, but the real 'weather' associated with this system will not be 'surface based' - but rather mid-level. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Regardless, guidance (both the NAM and GFS) are showing a 'swatch' of heavier rainfall or at least larger rainfall totals across ALL of South Central Florida from mostly south of a line running from near Brooksville toward Mims/Titusville area (on the north) and from near Sarasota to near Vero Beach/Fort Pierce (to the south). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">This looks like it would be a 'good moderate but steady rainfall' type of situation. The TIMING of the most concentrated rainfall as of the latest guidance is mainly from around 7-8pm Sunday night to near sunrise to just after sunrise Monday. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;">Hence, most of it will be overnight (under the assumption guidance doesn't change). Rainfall totals are showing to be in the 1.00 - 1 3/4" range but there could be much higher totals in some locations, much lower in others. Either way, <b>LATE Sunday (as the rainfall begins) through to at least mid-Morning Monday does not look very pleasant.</b></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgttKICS78TTYfwd7y8ag9GLoVeE8XTWp6g9Z1s9IBe-ccy1saTZMugs1sUvqiRhu40wfqoIYONZ2Ec_BRSfZdYgI3VYO-dOU8OrS3ucFO1G-3jzZJQ7VZbyfD7VhWTFGPpMeyCCdK3dxvK/s1007/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="1007" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgttKICS78TTYfwd7y8ag9GLoVeE8XTWp6g9Z1s9IBe-ccy1saTZMugs1sUvqiRhu40wfqoIYONZ2Ec_BRSfZdYgI3VYO-dOU8OrS3ucFO1G-3jzZJQ7VZbyfD7VhWTFGPpMeyCCdK3dxvK/w640-h336/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Current Satellite Image for FRIDAY afternoon over Florida</b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>BEYOND:</u></b> Monday will eventually see clearing once this potential rain event situation moves out - especially LATE in the day as colder drier air filters south. Once again, like this week, <b><u>TUESDAY will be a very cool and breezy day</u></b> with highs not likely reaching 60F across Central/North Florida - then <b>Tuesday night into Wednesday morning</b> as winds die down we will see again <b>a cold morning </b>though it does not look like it will be quite as cold as our previous bout was. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><u><b>MUCH COOLER Tuesday - Friday Morning:</b></u> The stretch of cold weather continues all the way through Friday morning - again, highs Wednesday might not reach 60F either - we will be having NW winds but they will die down for us on Wednesday and Thursday - as high pressure should be getting east of Florida overnight Thursday night we might see a warm up ESPECIALLY along the East Coast over night Thursday into Friday along the immediate east coast - then from there on we see a rapid warm up to <b>much warmer for NEXT weekend</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: IBM Plex Mono;"><b><u>IN THE GREAT BEYOND</u></b>: Given the current upper level pattern and based on persistence it appears we might be in for another very complex system to set up along the Northern to Central Gulf coming mid December. There is a variety of solutions appearing from potentially stormy to potentially very cold to even just a prolonged <b><i>Warming Trend</i></b>. In general, mid-December is going to give us another SURPRISE weather situation necessitating that all forms of outer wear be at hand.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-38486068943026809242020-11-28T14:45:00.003-05:002020-11-28T14:45:41.824-05:00 Shot Of Severe Possible Monday - "Extended Very Cool Period" Follows<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkaiTnXODvU3Wh_94fHtYfdXinjCoNppeMQkcxRUcRTnSNIiR5Qwqsgva0A0Ykek33OuxjlIBkVrRvs0LkwXr2SOvX0nt4idmioecC3Z3Jvc_tqxj-TNdA5JrkrIXgOTzHhjwmTOrKyPts/s389/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="259" data-original-width="389" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkaiTnXODvU3Wh_94fHtYfdXinjCoNppeMQkcxRUcRTnSNIiR5Qwqsgva0A0Ykek33OuxjlIBkVrRvs0LkwXr2SOvX0nt4idmioecC3Z3Jvc_tqxj-TNdA5JrkrIXgOTzHhjwmTOrKyPts/w640-h427/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Blog Post Forecast ONLY</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>(Risk of 'Strong to Severe Storms Associated with Strong Wind Gusts over 55mph -</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>Most Activity will fall 'below' severe (damaging) thresholds)</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: large;"><b><u>Rest of the Weekend</u></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">No change for previous days. Increasing cloud cover from North to South possible</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">over night. Sunday morning across Central will likely dawn with more clouds than recent Clear Mornings and as such morning low temperatures will also be 'warmer' (near 70F possible) as opposed</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">to the 'mid-upper 60Fs'. No real chance of rain foreseen south of I4 on Sunday with the cloud cover which might get 'extensive' late in the day especially. It will become most evident as the sun gets much lower in the sky (as it has been continually doing now seeming every day).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;"><b><u>Monday</u></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><b><i>Cold front to cross all of Central From I-4 and South</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">During the course of time since the previous post model guidance (at least the NAM and GFS) has come to much closer agreement in regard to <b>THE TIMING </b>OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The 'Timing" has slowed down 'CONSIDERABLY" from the previous post from 'Early Monday morning' to now Late in the Afternoon (at least as far as the Florida east coast South of I4 is concerned).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">For example, what looked like an 8AM frontal passage for 'East Central Florida" is now</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">forecast to occur closer toward 6PM Monday evening (!) Thankfully, then - we won't be wasting Day Light with Cold Weather moving in (albeit, we could be seeing a lot of cloud cover and some storm activity moving in). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Most likely the Lake - Orange-Seminole-Volusia County areas will see rain chances pick up with Strong (possibly severe storms) anytime from around 10AM through about 3PM - that risk then progresses east and southward to East Central and South Central prior to and during sunset hours. Granted with all the cloud cover it's going to be 'looking pretty dark out any way hours prior to actual sunset'. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghZpdaun6HT1vKiClpYk4ZHOBP1xrT61GLG4OJHuH3VPvJ6AFwwM3eZtxi3z1cYK9IeUDSalye318n73p9mmZCLp3gxEDHxt16RLebTXVqgbvpeeFoHp1CjKp5rwE6-7MWnpIyAcWrpnKe/s453/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="453" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghZpdaun6HT1vKiClpYk4ZHOBP1xrT61GLG4OJHuH3VPvJ6AFwwM3eZtxi3z1cYK9IeUDSalye318n73p9mmZCLp3gxEDHxt16RLebTXVqgbvpeeFoHp1CjKp5rwE6-7MWnpIyAcWrpnKe/w640-h578/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Beyond the risk for rain and strong/severe wind <b>rainfall TOTALS do not look very large at all (IF at all in some areas)</b> <u>due to the quick storm motion</u> (strong shear aloft and we'll have a 100 KNOT JET Stream overhead while the 'storms are going on).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: large;"><b><u>MONDAY OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY</u></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Colder and MUCH drier air will swiftly find headway behind the cold front. It will be EASILY Discernible if you are out side that (when) the front has gone through. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">The temperature drop will be noticeable but not radical. Either way, morning lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to near 50F (a good 20 degrees colder than all these previous mornings) will be no picnic when coupled with very brisk winds gusting to around 24-28mph if you are out and about.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Very Cool All Day Tuesday and would not be surprised if most areas of Central and North Central do not even reach 60F . Expecting highs in mid-upper 50Fs for the most part except Far South Central/South Florida.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYypW17vy7JF21RYEP43fYDFc4pYix70wBiLMGBW-a2qPjbNd2uURv9gQ-VF-Rn1dYkoOk3QU_GhR7b4lS0GY7aHrAw_sgqx-71f6-asA2U3-L44W9N4YTXzp1HbK5JCK6NeBeWom6ULdJ/s2048/DSC00026.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1360" data-original-width="2048" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYypW17vy7JF21RYEP43fYDFc4pYix70wBiLMGBW-a2qPjbNd2uURv9gQ-VF-Rn1dYkoOk3QU_GhR7b4lS0GY7aHrAw_sgqx-71f6-asA2U3-L44W9N4YTXzp1HbK5JCK6NeBeWom6ULdJ/w640-h424/DSC00026.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><b><u>WEDNESDAY MORNING</u></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Likely the coldest morning of the next few however, wind will quickly wane after dark Tuesday evening. High pressure at the lower levels will be moving overhead and the pressure gradient as such to decrease significantly. Wednesday might dawn with winds generally less than or near 5mph (esp. inland); I suspect there will be a wind along the beaches/barrier island because of the 'yet warmer near shore and river temperatures" alone - the warmer waters can produce a breeze even apart from any pressure gradients this time of year. Hence, there might still be a 'wind chill effect' at the beaches even if it's not as literally 'cold' at those locations.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><b><i>WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH-</i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><b><u>FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SEVERE AGAIN</u></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;"><b>QUICK warm up noticeable Wednesday afternoon</b>, </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet; font-size: medium;">with another front / Storm System on the way.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Warmer both on Wednesday and Thursday morning-afternoon with details to follow.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">Another storm system might be in the making for the Eastern GULF of Mexico</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: trebuchet;">to impact most of Florida by Friday (or Thursday night even) <b>This storm system (if it forms) has it appears now to have a greater potential to produce severe weather than the up and coming one</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.comCape Canaveral, FL 32920, USA28.3922182 -80.6077131999999920.081984363821153039 -115.76396319999999 56.70245203617884 -45.451463199999992tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-60603542432405587262020-11-24T09:45:00.003-05:002020-11-24T09:45:53.973-05:00Winter Weather: "It's Coming..." (Soon)<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYF88toi5Rfi9oL_lFDr5GdLDI7jDJ4nvpADXaYB0A893q5O-H1A-osWxzkXEan9eD4N-nb7A8Z0qrcNzjeAWpLZuDbgiPR9Z1prbHA-v79jDW5LrIt9K7EVTg4qsKATZJfkPkfaqD5I6X/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img data-original-height="259" data-original-width="480" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYF88toi5Rfi9oL_lFDr5GdLDI7jDJ4nvpADXaYB0A893q5O-H1A-osWxzkXEan9eD4N-nb7A8Z0qrcNzjeAWpLZuDbgiPR9Z1prbHA-v79jDW5LrIt9K7EVTg4qsKATZJfkPkfaqD5I6X/w515-h278/image.png" width="515" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">"It's Coming!"</span></b><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>TODAY - SATURDAY</b>: Not much in the next few days to speak of other than 'moderating temperatures 'and pleasant. There might be a chance of showers (especially near the coast late overnight tonight) but otherwise pleasantly seasonal to slightly above seasonal norms (especially inland away from the ocean). Light, mostly ENE wind shifting more toward the southeast in the next few days with nearly clear to partly cloudy skies due to marine stratocumulus clouds coming in off the Atlantic near shore waters, effective from the warmer Gulf Stream waters</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>SUNDAY</b>: Cold front in the panhandle approaches 'down state' late in the day to overnight. There might be a risk of strong to severe storms across all of the panhandle in association with the front (however), and though shear overhead will be strong over all of Central Florida instability looks to be meager to non-existent and mostly due to speed rather than directional shear, which would normally equate to 'windy rainshowers' in the absence of instability at the lower levels.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>MONDAY</b>: Timing is still in question as to exactly when the full -fledged front will complete it's translation down the state. The time frame being anywhere from late Monday to mid-day Tuesday (as it stands now). Going for the most recent GFS release the front will go through on Monday morning but the driest air lags behind a good 12 hours or more. Suspect that model will pull it's act together a bit better in future days and resolve itself to a complete fropa (Frontal Passage) to occur on MONDAY completely. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Either way, based on the timing of the GFS (other models aside) <u>the first COLD MORNING </u>of Winter 2020-2021 would be <u>NEXT TUESDAY</u>. Lows anywhere in North Central to Central Florida in the lower 40Fs through to near 50F and across the 30Fs over North Florida, and as you might expect, Windy at the same time. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This will be a '<b>Shock to the System" type of frontal passage</b> as all first true cold frontal passages tend to be over the state early in the season. We will have just gone through highs in the lower (to even some mid-80Fs) for several days in a row all through the Thanksgiving Weekend so a sudden 20-30F degrees temperature drop isn't exactly a yawn to experience.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Even Tuesday afternoon is showing up to not even reach 60F but rather mid-upper 50Fs. Will this change? My guess is yes. The GFS sometimes (or even frequently) over-blows cold air intrusions beyond day 4 and we are still talking a week away. No matter how you slice it though the model has been consistent for several days that "It's Coming!" (in some form or another). And from the looks of it this first front may not by any means be the end of it, but rather only the HERALD of things to come a few days later (as if once was not enough).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">For now, and chances are THIS PART ESPECIALLY WILL CHANGE, the model indicates a rapid recovery going into Wednesday-Thursday with yet another system approaching and perhaps again a risk of severe weather mainly due to wind shear (which again might not amount to much other than 'windy rain showers". </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It's the next reinforcing 'blast' that will fully assert if there was any question about it that indeed winter is on the door step -- for by Thursday into Friday and for SEVERAL DAYS beyond we will be seeing temperature below to much below 'normal' with another frontal passage. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">So t<b>he gist of this post without going into details was for a 'heads up'</b>...we have MUCH to be THANKFUL FOR this year (and always)...Grace came and comes at a Very High Price for us -- with every breath even - but that doesn't preclude that weather comes too with it's own form of Highs and Lows. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Unfortunately, tis the season for uncomfortable lows rather than unpleasant Highs (of summer).</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-21423089237198839242020-11-08T10:20:00.001-05:002020-11-08T10:20:21.655-05:00BETA Version of ETAs Possible Impacts - Mainly Late Tonight - Monday<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbdQDklfgmXJ7tVFZSFSHaVUnmHazjvRfVvXLBflh29H9Vmt-ZyZViQYVYUmSu-c80ns9IMB1GnC_kYkiDwwLjaCdgsspU-I6DQm9f0GCB2eUnGKj89yMwbOp1s0DvzgFIw1m4I5OLEg8c/s873/Blog1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="873" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbdQDklfgmXJ7tVFZSFSHaVUnmHazjvRfVvXLBflh29H9Vmt-ZyZViQYVYUmSu-c80ns9IMB1GnC_kYkiDwwLjaCdgsspU-I6DQm9f0GCB2eUnGKj89yMwbOp1s0DvzgFIw1m4I5OLEg8c/w640-h462/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">High Speed Dirt's 'Forecast' Tornado Risk Areas</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">for Tonight - Monday</span></b></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>TODAY</b>: Little change from yesterday's post - ETA is emerging off the North Central Cuban Coast late this morning. Weakening occurred over the mountainous terrain but strengthening and organization even further highly expected throughout the day and into this evening, early Monday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>RAIN CHANCES</b>: Given the weakening of system and latest data showing a sharp demarcation line of very moist atmosphere to not nearly as much (nor as deep) expect that most rain today at least in any true measurable amounts will remain over mainly South and far South Central Florida. There could be a few quick sprinkles further north, but for the most part today looks to be a 'status quo with what you got now as of late morning' situation until ETA gets reorganized AND begins to expand its wind field which is still anticipated going into mid-evening tonight through mid-morning Monday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Expecting the rain chances to almost 'suddenly emerge' into South Central but more specifically from near Ft Pierce northward to North Brevard County after 2-3 AM tonight, with a more discrete/heavier rainstorm/squall quality/nature to it rather than as a predominant rain shield as is currently at play. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This change in nature (if of course it occurs) would be due to a nocturnal wind max in the mid-levels combined with the storm's expanding wind field in the 2000-7000 ft. level above ground adding to helicity and shear as this occurs. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Discrete cells thus will be more likely mid evening tonight (South Florida and moreso toward the wee-hours post-midnight tonight -- especially where the 5000 ft level winds expand/radiate outward from at least Ft Pierce if not further north than that. Thus, for folks north of Ft Pierce the more likely time for this storm activity we've all been hearing about emerges well after midnight but prior to sunrise, Monday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">It is possible storms will acquire rotation coming in off the warm Atlantic water mainly from the Brevard /Volusia County line southward toward Ft Pierce during the course of events. Further south toward West Palm and south the same can be said to occur (more likely) after sunset tonight through midnight.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>PLEASE NOTE:</b> This is only a blog post - and not official. Hence, below is the 'Official Forecast" from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for 'today's' tornado risk area. Also note, the SPC has NO TORNADO RISK (as of now) for any other areas other than what is shown below. They show NO RISK for Monday over Central Florida. In fact, for Monday they only show a small area across far Southwest Florida - that is a big difference worth nothing from what this blog post is reading.</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBD17mPzdUf0ULwmO8zkwgnMskPl6ikb21i4CoRVSUOiVeqhgj-Pm68GCcMYAa7VH9jC_YiueIQcLoEcUQR_rH_CCIDtaH-_Lc5Mko8guCDc_LuSihvwlzFYOjQI-yFHuPTwFeuM_yYSdG/s379/Storm-Prediction-Center-Nov-8-2020-1300-UTC-Day-1-Convective-Outlook.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="379" height="572" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBD17mPzdUf0ULwmO8zkwgnMskPl6ikb21i4CoRVSUOiVeqhgj-Pm68GCcMYAa7VH9jC_YiueIQcLoEcUQR_rH_CCIDtaH-_Lc5Mko8guCDc_LuSihvwlzFYOjQI-yFHuPTwFeuM_yYSdG/w640-h572/Storm-Prediction-Center-Nov-8-2020-1300-UTC-Day-1-Convective-Outlook.jpg" title="HSD Tornado Risk Areas" width="640" /></a></div> <br /><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This image above shows SPC's Forecast for TODAY (in green) for 'Tornado Probability'</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The HSD Forecast is that this area will begin to validate AFTER 8pm tonight or thereabouts,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">mainly for far SOUTHWEST Florida then spread out as we approach midnight and thereafter.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The 'RED AREA" shown is the HSD Forecast as a result for late tonight going into MONDAY</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">with the area from Ft. Pierce and north more likely after 3AM and into Brevard by 5AM and thereafter into the afternoon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The only change from yesterday's post was to remove areas further north than Southern Volusia County from the 'Risk Area"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Otherwise, strongest wind gusts/wind in general will likely be restricted to near or over discrete rain cells/squalls. Outside the 'storms' winds will more than likely remain in the 15-30mph range including where the rain takes on a more 'shielded region' form rather than smaller discrete rain storms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Strongest winds right along the coast will increase for South Central to Central LATE today (more notably) into early evening and remain steady and even increase more steady state going into after midnight coincident with the increased tornado risk. Again, all due to the expanding wind fields as the storm starts to interact with the Florida Peninsula's land mass.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">WHEN WILL IT ALL BE OVER? It appears the 'worst of it all' will be on Monday. Thereafter the pressure gradient between ETA and high pressure to the north is to decrease even as ETA weakens (at least temporarily). Going into Monday the bulk of the storm should be over the Southeast Gulf, perhaps infringing upon the far Southwest Florida Coast. There is still a lot to be said for the 'future cast' of ETAs - so this post will avoid going into details that won't verify anyway.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Point being, as far as all of Central Florida is concerned , after Monday the wind overall will be much weaker than will be experienced today into Monday -and rain chances will also decrease (but not entirely). Rain could remain in the forecast into Tuesday, and perhaps we'll have to watch for a small tornado risk at least early Tuesday for some area yet to be revealed. Much depends on the storms future which varies in models anywhere from it becoming a hurricane to nothing more than a weak tropical depression...and where it goes is another 'Big If'...will it cross the state? If so, it could go anywhere from Central Florida to the panhandle, or simply remain over the Gulf and weaken.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Otherwise, temperatures to remain at to slightly above normal (especially overnight) through all of next week and rain chances decrease.</span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-637683718798796980.post-61158169808102872272020-11-07T14:43:00.002-05:002020-11-07T14:43:17.256-05:00Will The "Elusive Tropical Anomaly" (ETA) be a SWAK Threat ( or "Where's The Rain-X?) !"<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8dl4u-tSAD3G71yk_qs88aQzNXSrRTZIGTqt5yHd6lDIrJmwKa1I3hxaIYSI5Rt1e0IbI536Edeh6K1lgnzUKobF1vMVIaurOGXeEvhAROeGAJrvQ3nWEx4VofqaRDwlN4CWZEjtEAf9/s704/Blog1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="704" height="534" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8dl4u-tSAD3G71yk_qs88aQzNXSrRTZIGTqt5yHd6lDIrJmwKa1I3hxaIYSI5Rt1e0IbI536Edeh6K1lgnzUKobF1vMVIaurOGXeEvhAROeGAJrvQ3nWEx4VofqaRDwlN4CWZEjtEAf9/w640-h534/Blog1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Developing ETA South Of Cuba Saturday Afternoon , November 7 2020</b><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">By now all are well aware that a 'Tropical Threat" is encroaching upon Florida later this weekend into early next week. For all official forecasts please refer to the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center </a> for latest information regard ETA and/or the local National Weather Forecast Office for your location.</span><p></p><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">To eliminate repetition of what all the forecast offices will be putting out and already are, this post will be relatively brief but also mention a few points that might not yet have made mainstream or unofficial outlets </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">For "EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA" (specifically), based on current timing of multiple model output consensus in general, the heaviest weather overall and onset of it will begin over The Keys and Far South Florida then progressively work north with time going into late Sunday - Over Night Sunday Night - and into Monday (most specifically for North Central and Parts of North Florida as far north possibly as even the JAX area on Monday and/or even Tuesday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The Blog Post will make one observation (though not-official) and that is as you watch forecasts on 'TV" or other sources, realize that the 'worst of the weather' at times will NOT necessarily be near </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">the central circulation (or whatever one might call an 'eye' ). </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">IN fact, there is data output which indicates that the stormiest points at certain times might be <b><u>well more than 200NM from the Center</u></b>. For example, </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">when/if 'ETA" were to be centered just west of Ft Myers (as an example) the worst of the weather could be occurring along the Coast of Brevard County, which brings up another point. </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">All in all, the strongest surface wind associated with ETA appears will occur at the immediate coast from near Vero Beach and south, with gusts up to</span><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> and exceeding 55MPH possible, with the secondary area of 'not quite as strong at times' extending as far north as near the Volusia/Brevard County line. So far, Brevard County is being 'pegged' in more than one instance as a 'potential' for gusts will above 55mph due to the wind that would develop at the 2000-5000 ft level above ground come post Midnight Sunday night into the first half of Monday as the storm's girth increases, especially after sunrise Monday.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Likewise, the largest storm rainfall totals from beginning to end of this event will be near to 50 NM of the east coast in about the same areas. That is not to say there could be isolated 'events/locations' further north or west as well.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Overall, based on current trends - ETA will be making it's greatest impacts all day SUNDAY (far South Florida) and then working northward overnight Sunday night into Monday. The most volatile (and unfortunately most dangerous time) based on current model out put will be from near 9PM Sunday night through to near Sunrise Monday morning from Far South Brevard county to near West Palm Beach. Areas further north in Brevard would also see some 'active' weather in isolated storm cells PRIOR to SUNRISE Monday; however, the bulk of the greatest impacts north of Sebastian Inlet would be during daylight hours Monday...of course, there is a 'timing issue' and has the chance of being 'highly variable' and changing over the course of the next 18-30 hours. Therefore, the 'timing indicated' in this post is for 'example' only.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">ETA will be the <b>29th 'Recognized' Storm System' ever to occur in the month of November </b>within 300 NM of Cocoa Beach, Florida. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Also note that it will be the FIRST OF THESE STORMS to take a track that crossed Cuba then takes a LEFT TURN. As can be seen in the image below, all previously known tracks show storms lifting north and curving to the right</span></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI04Jkd-ZIqS2pjIqXaVYCiOZjvtIoHmT51ucmi0EcrFiPT56fa1JjxymVh0fXeKlY5ZrBWsyrjg2nJ5qtdfj3GE8-uTIohP2OCE2CGY5Rh7-ZE_EpOkUTQuKi4piprpLwTtlf735SAWID/s1540/Blog2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="1540" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI04Jkd-ZIqS2pjIqXaVYCiOZjvtIoHmT51ucmi0EcrFiPT56fa1JjxymVh0fXeKlY5ZrBWsyrjg2nJ5qtdfj3GE8-uTIohP2OCE2CGY5Rh7-ZE_EpOkUTQuKi4piprpLwTtlf735SAWID/w640-h292/Blog2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In regard to ETA and Central/North Florida - the heaviest weather from ETA appears will occur when the Storms Central Circulation (per latest official forecast track) is over or near the keys to approximately 120 NM west or northwest of Ft Myers , that's assuming the storm takes the forecast track.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Pay not too close attention the storms CENTER ! ..higher winds at lower levels of the atmosphere from 2000-5000 feet above ground could be just asstrong , if not stronger well away from the Center , especially Sunday night going into Monday (assuming the forecast track holds). These winds could work to the surface in areas of rain bands resulting in SQUALL GUSTS of 70mph + (this is 'worst case scenario' type stuff) I expect there will be large differences between the sustained winds vs. GUSTS during the time of heavier rain squalls or storms, especially on MONDAY.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This brings up the other "ISSUE" from the Blogger's Standpoint. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">That being The High Speed Dirt concern - or, in this case more like Speeding Water of Another Kind (SWAK)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: red; font-family: helvetica;"><b><u>TORNADO RISK</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">All available data from the 4KM NAM, HRRR and GEFS shows that there will be a TORNADO risk and at times a possibly significant one from low topped tornadic supercell structures within or even apart from incoming squalls. Isolated , rotating storms appear will be most likely from the Keys along the east coast to about 50 miles inland especially OVERNIGHT Sunday night along eastern portions of South and South Central. This risk could extend (based on current timing) as far north as Southern/Central Brevard County. But again realize, TIMING of all things referred to in this post is subject to change, which will mostly likely be the case. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Bear in mind that <b><u><span style="color: red;">The TORNADO RISK at times could be FAR from the storm's Center </span></u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">For example, if ETA were to be 20 Miles west of Ft Myers the biggest tornado threat might be near the Kennedy Space Center (!), that far away, yes. That is due to the fact that as mentioned earlier, there will be sufficient low level bulk -shear and accompanying 'helicity' in the same levels, COUPLED WITH heat from the near shore Atlantic Water providing for some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). So we'll have 'CAPE" plus 'HELICITY" and BULK SHEAR" .. all occurring within the lowest levels of the atmosphere. There could be, thus, LAND FALLING TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS or flat out tornadoes when they develop over land.</span></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRVKEZgUwzDwEMBDn9C1LAp2pgS32_0p3eb_SQDb_Z4bWpvmgvWnWDcaqifuofzpNngLODEILyrX9bsZDWn3EHfDTIbhlNAA4GycD13Dlfeo-TT3GHPs0qU76qGJixvd3jmNcBZH3IKtMz/s910/Blog.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="910" height="445" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRVKEZgUwzDwEMBDn9C1LAp2pgS32_0p3eb_SQDb_Z4bWpvmgvWnWDcaqifuofzpNngLODEILyrX9bsZDWn3EHfDTIbhlNAA4GycD13Dlfeo-TT3GHPs0qU76qGJixvd3jmNcBZH3IKtMz/w640-h445/Blog.jpg" title="Tornado Risk area" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Looking above: The Greater Tornado Risk (working from South to North will be along the Florida east coast to up to 20-40 NM inland south of South Brevard PRIOR to sunrise, Monday morning, then from that point on the risk increases esp. after 10AM-11AM MONDAY as 'daylight' hours will provide additionally HEATING and the mid level winds begin to expand around the central circulation.<br /></span><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><b>Will such activity actually occur though? Whether it ACTUALLY does or not, it looks rather certain that we will at least by hearing Tornado Warnings</b> being issued (if not many of them) from Miami Northward possibly as far north as The JAX NWS office.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> <b>Time to put THE RAIN-X on your Car</b> and pull in the yard furniture and other outside things and be prepared for POWER OUTAGES in some areas and in some more prone areas (especially South Florida), flooding.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> At this point, 'storm surge' does not appear will be too much an issue THOUGH high tides will be running 'VERY HIGH" and could result in beach erosion, the rivers could also come up higher than normal ...</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;">More to come ..<b>another post will be made TOMORROW</b> ...by then, we can monitor SEVERAL more runs of all available models I have access to - and also Follow THE TREND each model takes. This blog will be watching mainly the TORNADO RISK as the other information is posted FAR AND WIDE over the Media and made available most Readily over the internet from multiple sources, both official and unofficial.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Comments are always welcome, especially if they are
constructive and/or helpful. Let me know what you need
to see!</div>Stephenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01980724753973410660noreply@blogger.com0