High Speed Dirt

Be Fore-warned Florida...It's Gonna Be Cold in These Thar Hills

2012-02-10T08:00:00.002-05:00

Coldest Full Day (or nearly so) of Winter for Florida is in the Making, but first comes some rain

A different flavor of post today, no maps required. The writing has been on the walls for nearly two weeks now (I have been watching behind the scenes), that a change was in the making as noted in the previous two posts. It now appears that all will come to fruition. Earlier posts were not definitive since it is not particularly beneficial most of the time to put the cart before the horse (the boy who cried wolf syndrome as weather folks are so famous for). I suppose it is time to cry , "Man Your Battle Stations!...Cold air is on the way." And it looks like a doozy. But all is not as bad as it may seem. Meaning, this does not appear to be a long spell of it. However, even more changes are a brewin', at least in regard to implications made by the weather models. Again, though, this seemed to be also in the making. With this in mind....

TODAY: A cold front is in development and to cross the state through the day and into the evening and overnight. Ahead of the front, clouds will persist for the most part as winds begin to shift from southeast to south and eventually Southwest. There is a chance of thunder after 2-7pm considering : (1) the respectable amount of bulk wind shear throughout all atmospheric levels in what is referred to as the boundary layer and (2) atmospheric instability (which is not all so impressive to say the least) does exist today as opposed to previous frontal passages.

Prior to that time and during it as well, some lighter rain may fall, particularly over the southern 1/3 of the state initially. As the front approaches toward mid-afternoon rain chances and possible thunder from near Canaveral and South, where as other showers and maybe thunder further north along this developing two-tonged system moves through could occur, although thunder along the front itself appears less likely. Without going into meteorological specifics, there is agreement in models to a respectable degree...and the National Weather Service has taken a bite as well along this line of thinking.

SATURDAY: The overall system which is much larger than what is impacting Florida will be moving east of the state as NW winds filter in during the day after the frontal passage which appears will occur shortly before mid-evening through post midnight across the peninsula. Thus, on Saturday..the air will begin to dry out from the dank and damp conditions of recent days (in the evenings)...and with drier air comes colder air, since dry air holds less heat over the night time hours. The second phase of this system will clear all of the northern 2/3 of the state by mid-Saturday evening as temperatures fall into the 40Fs and the air outside continues to dry.

SUNDAY: Potentially the coldest day of the winter 2011-2012 season from sunrise to set. Highs possibly never to clear the upper 40Fs (but see further down too) most areas at and north of Lake Okeechobee. Morning lows toward freezing from I-4 and north, if not even further south than there. Coastal east coast lows in the upper 30Fs toward low 40Fs. The difference in this cold spell as opposed to the previous will not be so much the morning low, but rather the lack of warmth Sunday afternoon with continued winds to abate not enough for uncomfortable wind chills until Monday early.

This image is a forecast from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model showing in blue 30F's if not colder toward far Florida. The green tones are noted first with the 40F print. One can take it from there. Afternoon highs to make it into the low 50Fs central toward South Central and warmer yet further south based on this run, but we will need to watch those numbers. Could be yet colder than shown here.

MONDAY: With the worst over, and winds becoming more easterly..the immediate beaches from Canaveral South will likely be in the mid-upper 40Fs, with continued cold (but not freezing) elsewhere on more morning...Monday will be a few or more degrees warmer all locales, but still chilly by comparison to days like those of yesterday and today.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Continued warming toward the 70Fs with a rapid warm up over nights as well. This is not the end of the saga however as alluded to in the opening paragraph. Although very cold air is not yet depicted, the chances for rainfall and possible storms remains to be an emerging possibility once again. As usual and would expect from a blog named "High Speed Dirt", the watch for active severe weather will need to be considered heading into the later parts of February for somewhere in the state.

Stream of Weather Consciousness = Changes

2012-02-04T07:21:00.005-05:00

The weather here on the earth's surface has many dimensions. The winds, the sun, and gravity dictate much of what we experience coupled with the rotation, sun angle relative to the earths orbit, and pre-existing conditions of the past all add up to the present experience. Like our lives, the sum total of our past experiences and all those encompass manifest as the Now. Such as is the case with today's weather on February 4th all around the globe. The stream bed, the twigs, the rocks, the blocks where twigs and branches get stuck, and various depths of the waters combined dictate the birth of what will finally emerge as we see and experience it at any point in time anywhere , anyplace,....... as weather.

TODAY-MONDAY: High pressure is moving east of the state of Florida as well as to the north just a bit will drop south in the next 48 hours as a cold front approaches. As such, winds will become easterly to southeasterly toward south into Sunday late...which will also result in an increase in atmospheric moisture. Although there will be little change in temperatures, with daytime highs coolest along the east coast due to the cool ocean waters this time of year..a chance of rain will formulate with this increase in moisture especially on Sunday afternoon through at least early Monday. At time, not expecting thunder due to the indication that upper level winds and thermal dynamics (thermodynamics) will not be sufficient to generate more volatile type weather. Thus, showers are quite possible for much of the state, especially east central to south Florida on Sunday afternoon toward at least mid-morning Monday with partly cloudy to sometime cloudy skies possible. Otherwise, very un-winter like all things considered.

BEYOND MONDAY: The front appears will slip slowly south and then east of the state heading through Tuesday and beyond with little overall changes indicated beyond that of which has been the current state of affairs. However, there are hints of changes awaiting on the wings of uncertainty...as noted in the previous dialog a while back...there are signals..that a chain reaction of events could harbor a change...potentially a bit volatile in nature..

LATER NEXT WEEK: Beyond this front to pass through in some sort of oblique fashion early week...the GFS long range assumption has been progressively and continuously pumping out a picture indicating that low pressure systems could form close to if not in the Gulf of Mexico. Such systems bring more dynamic wind fields, instability, and low level 'boundaries' resulting in storms and rain. Although no cold air beyond the norm is shown, it does show that rain will much more likely occur toward later next week ..thunder possible. Even this will have to be watched, especially Central and South Florida for a mini-severe weather chance heading toward the Ninth of February...but no guarantees.

BEYOND THEN: More of the change continues. Like a domino affect, the effect around the Northern Hemisphere occurs in all places, coupled with waves of change in the Southern Hemisphere...a chance of a severe weather outbreak could occur toward mid-February somewhere in the Deep South toward Florida. At this time, it is too far out in the great beyond to get down to specifics as to when and where or even If...but the overall indicators point for this 'new change' of changes to potentially remain in place. The low down and dirty is, we have had benign weather for a while..the bump is appearing to no longer remain on the log.

Heads Up Florida! Chance of Storms, Possibly Severe on Friday

2012-01-26T15:56:00.002-05:00

Frontal boundary is clearly evident crossing into the Florida Panhandle this mid-afternoon
Thursday per this image. The Front will be slowing down tonight, with a secondary shove to the southeast beginning pre-dawn Friday and reaching near south Florida toward sunset Friday.

TODAY: Breezy SE winds over much of the peninsula except closer to the frontal boundary which is on the approach from the WNW-NW. The front can be seen in the above satellite image extending well south into Gulf of Mexico northward toward Crestview and Geneva. Conditions over the peninsula will remain overnight warmer than usual due to winds remaining elevated and some cloud cover enhanced by increasing atmospheric moisture (precipitable water) throughout the atmospheric layers. Lows tonight likely to remain in the 60Fs closer toward 70F South Florida.

Winds also becoming S-SW overnight with a SW and slightly breezy sunrise speed in the 10-18mph range. Increasing clouds as showers and possible storms move into the Big Bend to JAX areas in the pre-dawn toward early morning post-sunrise time frame.

FRIDAY: The front will be slowing down toward later today and tonight as its upper level supporting low pressure complex lifts more toward the NE, stretching out the boundary and slowing its eastward progress.

Upper level jet stream winds will maintain strongest, primarily across only the far North Portion of the state; yet, a secondary jet streak will develop across Central Florida as the upper trough begins to lift ENE-NE tonight. The region very close to Dead Central Florida per latest GFS and NAM forecast models indicates that the area drawn in red will be under the exiting left region of this jet streak. Additionally, due to the timing of this system as laid out in model guidance (The NAM and GFS have finally come to a timing agreement in the 18z runs! ..for the first time since showing the system's approach)..Dead Central may have a more primed environmental, conditional impact for strong storms since this boundary will be approach that area of the state during peak heating of the day, although any destabilizing heat will be likely offset by high cloud coverage to some degree.

Light blue frontal position estimate at 10AM Friday morning. The orange and red are also first wags and storm threats (orange, general thunder with stronger wind gust and RED: tiny severe weather threat).

Concerning the upper level winds: Winds will be largely uni-directional with height, but not entirely by any means. Additionally, any stalling could tend toward greater directional shear depending on how far northward the upper level trough lifts out. Regardless, speed shear and bulk shear both could provide the impetus for showers and storms to create wind gusts or straight line winds in the 35-50mph, with a gust or so approaching severe category, namely at or above 58 mph. As of this time, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman Oklahoma is watching this system for Florida impacts as I write this post. At time, the peninsula is being out-looked under a "See Text" banner, with hardly a reference to bona-fide severe weather threat, YET. They are watching for a better signal to sound the horn.

In that regard, and based on what I personally am seeing in the model and for purposes of this unofficial information, have included a "severe chance" in between the areas in RED in the first graphic above.

Thunderstorm chances will occur between sunrise (Far NW) to Central working south and east from mid-morning through early afternoon as the particular set up for storms works further south. By mid afternoon, the upper level supporting winds for stronger storms will be pulling out, so expecting that there will little left but a line of showers with some thunder south of the orange most southern line in the above image.

BEYOND: No so bad in the temperatures as feared previously. Overnight lows will indicate little change Saturday and Sunday from recent days, but cooler afternoon highs a possibility. Although, given what this winter has been like so far, no special preparations with lows in the upper 50Fs to near 6oF Cape Canaveral and South along the IMMEDIATE coast..cooler inland, with lows in the 40Fs north of I-4.

The colder morning will be, as it stands now, on Monday when a second boundary will have pulled through dry, but swing winds back toward NW..making for a much cooler morning Monday morning. That morning will be followed by a fairly rapid swing to onshore wind component..and we can call it a day with cold air threats.

NEXT SYSTEM: Having been watching and watching and watching, there appears to be indications that a more widespread chance of rain and maybe storms will be once again knocking on Florida's Door come close to this very time next week when rain again will be possible. This next system has been in the cue on the GFS model for quite some time, but given the time extension until we reach reality..anything yet can go.

"Cold Front" Sliding Slowly Through Florida Today - Not a Big Change Maker

2012-01-18T09:25:00.004-05:00

9AM Position of cold front with moderate rain showers and some thunder over the Gulf of Mexico
The front to slide into Central Florida mid-late afternoon through midnight (South Central by then).
SMALL chance of elevated thunder as show in the image, but minimal. If so, even a heavier rain shower if possible could manifest a wind gust or so in the 40mph range, but again, chances are low but not completely unattainable for thunderstorms.

Here is how the same area appears on satellite imagery. Note how long the front will take to get into Dead Central today. In other instances of cold frontal passage, the distance to be traversed with strong fronts could take a matter of a few hours rather than 12 hours at least as will be the case today.

And Finally........

Wind fields MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure/The Surface/Ground Level). SW-WSW wind today and warm most areas except North Florida before cloud cover moves in. No problems for peak heating all of Central and South..but far North Central might get the clouds in before peak heating north of I-4. Note the projected cold front positions, and how it barely skits by far South Florida before pulling off more toward the east rather than south. Rain showers or a sprinkle possible between the green lines.

TODAY: It is Wednesday, January 18. Cold front moving South and East today through Florida with warmer temperatures most areas except the barrier islands of Brevard downwind of the cooler waters of the Two Big Rivers but even there it will be warmer today (just not 'as warm' as inland); highs even still will be in the mid-upper 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs South Florida toward the East Side of the state. The front is accompanied by cloud cover expected to reach I-4 and south during early-mid afternoon in varying degrees, reaching Dead Central toward late afternoon.

If there is to be any thunder heard today suspect it will be up until 9pm toward East Central, but lightning even then SHOULD be either cloud to cloud or in-cloud (and not hitting the ground). There is a sliver of opportunity in there for cloud to ground strikes along and just north/south of I-4 as far south as an area near Sanford/Mims until 7pm. Any showers or even a thunder producing 'storm' especially could result in wind gusts around 40mph. ..

HOWEVER, this discussion is based on 2AM EST forecast model runs, thus early morning information has not been assimilated yet into the model depicted outlooks which will be spewing out of the computers shortly after noon time. Thus, refinement if necessary, of this post could be necessary by early afternoon. Anticipating that if anything, conditions will not be even as 'bad' as written in this post. Better case scenario will be very little rain anywhere south of I-4 except toward the East Side of the State. Rain is not expected as far as this blog post is concerned south of a line running from Palm Bay to Sarasota, and most of the official NWS offices seem to be in agreement on that from what I briefly read this morning.

I did look at the morning Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which is located in Norman, Oklahoma, Outlook for thunderstorms today..and this is their line of thinking for POSSIBLE thunder, not definite thunder.

The "Storm Prediction Center" (SPC) Thunderstorm Outlook for today issued around 8AM EST this morning. Note that no Severe Storms are anticipated per the other colors indicating "Risk" of Severe Levels Ranging from Slight to High Risk of Severe

BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY: Cooler temperatures for a day or so after the front the north half of the state, or another way of looking at it..in that same area in green above where thunder is possible today. The warmest morning lows will run down the Barriers of Brevard toward Palm Beach County and across toward Sarasota and South as winds will quickly swing around to NE-ENE-E during the day on Thursday and then become more SE on Friday. Mornign lows in the mid-upper 40Fs interior Central and North, but along the Barriers and South in the mid-upper 50Fs ..much like those of yesterday and today.

WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY: Warm! Overnight lows along the east coast from the Cape and South possibly in the mid-upper 60Fs by Sunday morning if not 70F and daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near the beach and into the low 80Fs by Sunday inland. No real chance of rain is in the extended, nor is any cold air through the remainder of January anticipated. As noted before, that last cold spell could have been our last of longer than 1 or 2 day duration for the winter. Still have the first 1/2 of February to go though. Severe weather chances will need to be looked out for as well as we approach Florida's severe weather month (officially) of March, although, with the La Nina Pattern in full-hold, even that might be dealt with in ease.

2012-01-15T09:10:00.002-05:00

"Sundog" in Center of Image formed by ice crystal in the high altitude cirrus clouds

Sundogs are made commonly of plate-shaped hexagonal ice crystals in high and cold cirrus clouds or, during very cold weather, by ice crystals called diamond dust drifting in the air at low levels. These crystals act as prisms, bending the light rays passing through them with a minimum deflection of 22°. If the crystals are randomly oriented, a complete ring around the sun is seen — a halo. But often, as the crystals sink through the air they become vertically aligned, so sunlight is refracted horizontally — in this case, sundogs are seen.

TODAY: Based on latest satellite imagery and a throw in from model guidance for comparison, high clouds today will be less prevalent than of yesterday. That means in a nut shell, more sun than not. Winds from the NNW-N later in the day at 10-18mph along the open areas with highs in the low-mid 60Fs, and some upper 60Fs South Florida.

TONIGHT/MONDAY: Winds becoming light after or near dark and veering toward the NNE-NE-ENE through the overnight. Coastal lows from Canaveral and south should level off mid-late evening in the mid-upper 50Fs, whereas further from the coast lows will fall within the 40Fs realm with only a few high clouds.

On Monday the wind will become ENE-E during the day with highs all areas in the mid-upper 60Fs, possibly lower 70Fs SW Coast of the peninsula. Clouds becoming a non-issue in the high altitude level category, but a better chance of lower level clouds due to moisture off of the Atlantic. Monday overnight lows again warmer than the previous evening, remaining in the low-mid 60Fs Canaveral and South, 50Fs inland or upper 40Fs. Winds continuing to veer toward the ESE through SSE toward sunset.

TUESDAY: Winds overnight will be veering yet more toward the S-SSW-SW. A cold front will be entering our 'picture' but have little to no impact Central and South Florida in days ahead. Circulation around high pressure near Bermuda continues warm air advection with highs all areas in the mid-upper 70Fs with partly cloudy skies with a small chance of mostly cloudy intervals. In short, nothing like the past few days have been by a long-shot.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front will be struggling to impinge through the peninsula with noteworthy impact. Any rain showers should be restricted to the I-4 corridor (Tampa/Orlando/Daytona) ie. North Central and north, although a sprinkle or light rainshower 'could' occur Central Wednesday evening toward sunrise Thursday. Mostly cloudy and a pleasant overnight low in the 60Fs.

THURSDAY/SATURDAY: Winds behind the front as it undergoes frontalysis quickly become ENE-E behind its decaying boundary pulling east and out over South Central Florida never really reaching far South Florida. Lows remaining in the 60Fs east coast overnight with highs in the mid 70Fs interior, but cooler east of US1 due to the influence of cool ocean waters and light onshore winds.

Florida Front Frolics Forth and Through

2012-01-13T08:45:00.001-05:00

Infrared Satellite image shows front's position around 730AM south end of Lake
Okeechobee, after clearing Central around 6AM. Red shows in general the jet stream level winds today through most of the weekend and thin patches of high clouds associated with those winds. Another image further down shows those winds in graphic form.

Colorized Depiction with labels of surface temperature in Fahrenheit Degrees at 730AM EST. The 60F line HAD been north of Dead Central prior to the front early, early this morning. Blue arrows show direction of colder air impingement southward.

TODAY: Best surprise is no surprise in the case of today. That being, the cold front went through per schedule and is now toward the south end of Lake Okeechobee one hour after sunrise. Much drier air is located over North Florida with dew point temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20Fs. In comparison, the Daytona Area has dewpoints now in the mid-upper 30Fs and East Central toward Canaveral remains a good 10-15 degrees higher. The dew points are a good determinant of how dry the air is. The lower the dewpoint the drier the air. The dry air is working south all day along with the colder air (drier air holds less heat).

Highs today will likely not get above 60F north of a line running through Melbourne or Palm Bay area toward South Tampa Bay...with highs near the lower 70Fs far South Florida. Highs in the lower 50Fs North Florida. NW wind all day at 10-15mph. This cold spell in a sense will not be as bad as the previous one for two reasons.

1) It looks like we will start out with less brisk of a wind thus wind chill temperatures not a big player; and,

2) All in all over night lows not looking to get toward freezing on any overnight period.

This will simply be a bit of a prolonged very cool to cold period with intermittent cloudier periods, especially over the Southern 1/2 to 1/3 of the state through the weekend. Thus, although it might be cooler further north (North Central and North), this area is more likely to see more of the sun and feel direct warmth from it's rays as opposed to those in South Florida. Give or take which ever one prefers.

Today and Saturday Jet Stream Winds forecast with front location mid- morning today drawn in. This shows the air mass moving over Florida will be a bit of a modified Pacific NW type and not straight from the North Pole as is the case when there is a widespread freeze over the state. This also shows how Pacific type winds are playing in to the equation, aiding in the modification of the' air mass', although this depiction is for generally 30,000 ft aloft (6 miles over head), as opposed to at the ground.

Note the wind speeds annotated in the image above provided within the white squares with values ranging from 70 - 120 knots (kts).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Coldest overall day, colder than today all areas by generally 3-6 degrees during the day and much colder Saturday morning all areas, as well as Sunday morning. The warmest overnight lows will likely be EAST of the both rivers in Brevard County and southward. Same reasoning will apply far west coast south of Tampa. Lows do not appear will get to freezing except toward far North Florida, but mid-upper 30Fs and lower 40Fs could be widespread these mornings. Those warmer areas will likely remain closer to the mid-upper 40Fs, and warmer Keys and coastal SE Florida.

MONDAY: Still no change in previous line of thinking. Warmer east coast as onshore winds develop over night Sunday night or late in the day, preventing temperatures from falling along the east coast. No truly Cold spell for QUITE SOME TIME TO COME also remains at this point; only perioeds "on the cool side" from time to time (so far). Maybe some showers or at least a cloudy period toward Wednesday with the next front, but as stated, cold air with this next boundary has yet to materialize more than a few tics below normal seasonable readings.

Three Cold Days Ahead to Commence Overnight- Tonight

2012-01-12T18:47:00.003-05:00

Cold days EMERGENCY beginning Friday morning, although not as cold as in this image. We might be lucky to see blue sky to much of a degree for Friday and Saturday, unlike this pristine image shows . More below.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Okay, not quite an emergency, but this post does have urgency. Late day post this Thursday evening. Post haste make not waste, so it will be made brief.

A second cold front after yesterday's, can't even tell one went through given the warm air today, is on the approach as noted in Wednesday's post. The front will be across Central Florida between 3AM -7AM Friday morning and approaching the north shore of Lake Okeechobee during sunrise. Wind behind the front becomes northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy at times over night..with mildly cooling temperatures as would be expected after sunset.

The bigger change will be post-cold front early Friday as full cold air advection occurs during peak heating on Friday. This will offset the normal diurnal heating cycle, and in fact, temperatures will likely FALL all morning after sunrise toward noon or early afternoon. Highs Central remaining in the mid-50s and lower 50Fs far north central to upper 40Fs further yet north. South Central and South to be in the low-mid 60Fs, and maybe some upper 60Fs far south.

Good chance it will become at least mostly cloudy mid afternoon as dense jet stream cirrus clouds and 500mb cirrostratus clouds are swept well overhead, blocking the sun's rays .

Despite the cloud cover blanket potential, lows by Saturday morning might still fall to the mid-upper 30F north half toward the lower-mid 40Fs extreme East coast (east of US1 toward Canaveral and South) and south Florida. Saturday appears will be the coldest day of this set up from sunrise to set, cooler than Friday by several degrees round the clock with continued cloudiness seeming to be a good bet. If the sun can be shining more than my line of thinking is this evening, temperatures will be easily 5 degrees warmer than noted in this post if not more. That does not appear to be likely though, even if the clouds are not as prevalent. Point is, back to the jackets and wind chills for a time.

SUNDAY: Frost possible Central and Northern Interiors, and warmer all areas by noon time or so, with highs into the lower-mid 60Fs Central, warmer south. East coast overnight lows Sunday night (east of US1 from Port Canaveral and South) might fall only very little after dark Sunday night.

MONDAY: Warming trend all parts of the state with a quick rebound. Onshore easterly winds becoming more SSE toward Wednesday will prevent overnight coastal lows from falling below the low 60Fs. That is a big turn around to have overnight lows possibly warmer than the day time highs of Saturday and Sunday .

BEYOND: The last Long Range model indicates a trend toward a chance of rain on Wednesday with another front in the area; however, temperatures are not expected at this point to fall to the low degrees of this front tonight or that previous one last week. If this year is like that of last year, this next cold snap might be the 'end all of end alls' for this season other than " onesies or twosies cold duration 'snaps' "

Gusty Winds Today, Rain Good Bet, A Strong Storm Possible

2012-01-11T09:14:00.004-05:00

Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) Lines and 10 Meter Winds AGL in Knots (Above Ground Level) per the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS) Website (see link in graphic). Front is shown in Gulf of Mexico. Expecting stronger activity today , if any, to be south of the red line. Prefrontal trough to be enhanced by late morning toward noon time with higher sun angle, although cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day offsetting heating.

The above image shows where some boundaries at the surface exist. The satellite image shows what the sky looks like from above the clouds we see looking down toward earth.

CLOUDY skies can be see from space over Florida. Storms
are embedded within these clouds, mainly off Southwest Florida, with another small line becoming organized about 60 miles west of Cedar Key near the lower Big Bend. The 'cold front' really is not much of a cold front seeing how it originated over the SW United States. The colder air is behind another front to come early Friday.

TODAY: Rain chance increases across the state today, although anticipate that not many areas will see the heavier rains. In fact, most areas will only experience light rainfall. A trace of rain fell in Canaveral near daybreak along with a "Red Sky at Sunrise". There is an old adage, "Red Sky in Morning, Sailor Take Warning". Rain chances are shown by most of the model guidance to pick up late morning from west to east as daytime heating (albeit weak due to cloud cover) increases mid-level lapses rates (change in temperatures with height) to only a small degree. Otherwise, wind energy associated with the mid-upper level troughs which are propagating the surface front eastward will increase across Central and South Florida after Twelve Noon. At that time is when rainfall coverage could increase. Any storms will be embedded within the cloud cover, and will not be easily discernible upon their approach until very close to any one (your) location. Temperatures to remain in the low-mid 70Fs, possibly toward upper 70Fs far East Coast south of Brevard.

STORM CHANCES: As of this writing, a small cluster of storms with some lightning has taken shape well west of Cedar Key, FL which is located generally WSW of Gainesville, FL along the west coast. The biggest cluster of storms is well west of SW Florida in the Gulf. This cluster is closely linked to the warm Gulf waters of the Loop Current. It is thought by all guidance they will never make it to shore once they begin to depart those warm waters. So far, loops of radar and lightning animation seem to be verifying this line of thinking, but can never say never toward South Florida. For now though, the trend of several days has shown little activity over South Florida with this system, and early morning model runs have not changed along those lines.

Better chance appears now to be South of I-4 and north of a line running from near Sarasota to Vero Beach as was surmised yesterday. A few graphics are included below with descriptors.

Helicity is a measure of corkscrewing winds in the horizontal. The red shows higher helicity. The higher this value, the greater potential for lifting mechanisms in the atmosphere to act upon any shower or storm that can manifest in the generally unfavorable environment today. But one can never be sure in cases similar to those of today. In the past, a strong toward severe storm or two has managed to manifest regardless of preconceived notions. Believe the best chance of any such activity today over land will occur between the lavender lines, especially Brevard County.

This above plot is as close to 'actual' as one can get. NOW, we can look at the Rapid Updated Cycle (RUC) model forecast plot for this afternoon around 3pm. This is showing the Energy Helicity Index at the lowest atmospheric levels. The Green Shows at least 'something worth noting'. This value combines both helicity and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere...(long story).

01KM EHI (Energy Helicity Index) per RUC. Note where the green is located. By the next hour in this run of the model, these values are even higher but have moved offshore Brevard, Southern Volusia, and Indian River County. Prior hours to this time frame show little. These are coincident with during and just after peak heating, no coincidence. Note another peak in green toward SW Florida.

...For today, cloudy and breezy. Guidance shows winds of 40 knots just above the surface, so it is possible Small Craft Advisories and Lake wind advisories could be needed after 11AM toward late afternoon as the prefrontal trough and front cross the state. Guidance also shows winds could remain elevated to breezy well after dark. Winds from the South to SSW becoming SW-WSW at 14-22mph with gusts toward 32mph near any showers or possible thunder storms. The strongest wind gusts in storms should they be able to manifest COULD top 55mph, but coverage of such activity will be very isolated and therefore the Storm Prediction Center is no longer outlooking Florida for severe weather. The more favorable location is the Carolinas closer to the parent surface low pressure center.

Better chances for strong activity almost anywhere along the west coast toward West Central and SW Coast, as well east East Central. Brevard/Osceola, Eastern Orange, and Indian River Counties seem to have a better chance of stronger winds and a brief but heavy down pour, not to discount Northern Palm Beach and Martin Counties as well. Cloud to ground lightning is possible as well, but very isolated. Expect most lightning to be in-cloud or cloud to cloud.

It has not rained heavily in quite some time for most areas, so it is a good point to be made that roads could become slick easily today, and will be traversed during rush hour while still wet. The biggest threat today will be the roads, although some gusty winds and who knows, maybe a brief 'spin-up' like tornado toward East Central, but definitely not hanging any hats on that hook.

BEYOND: Front to clear the state after dark, and become draped out across the Florida Straits close to or just south of the Keys until the true COLD FRONT crosses the state overnight Thursday night and very early Friday.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY FRIDAY..meaning, cold air filtering in on NW winds even during peak heating. Breezy on Friday and cold, becoming cloudy as well due to the potential of fairly thick altostratus and cirrostratus clouds...meaning..no sun. Hopefully, this will not be the case, but if so, could be highs Central and North will never breach the lower 50Fs, warming into the lower to mid 60Fs South Florida.

TODAY at 3pm. PREFRONTAL TROUGH in DASHED BLACK. This boundary
will be the potential real weather maker for rain related activity, although showers can accompany the actual front in blue as well. Partly cloudy on Thursday with increasing clouds late as the next front approaches.

THURSDAY OVERNIGHT: Jet streak of 140 kts winds aloft will be departing the SE States placing Florida in the left exit region (right rear quadrant)..this generates lifting in the upper levels and could induce cloud coverage during the time of cold air advection.
A lethal combination!! for those not favoring cold weather.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Much like those last days that were cold. Winds become light with some sunnier skies but remaining very cool during daylight hours through Saturday and even Sunday to of less a degree. ..but morning lows to not appear will reach freezing, and even frost might be hard to come by due to light winds.

MONDAY: Cool start and then rebound. It still appears another stormy system will be on the horizon around week three of January, but this system now on our door step and the cold air to follow over the weekend and Friday might just be the end of the worst in the temperature department. Just Maybe.

Strong To Severe Weather Possible on Wednesday

2012-01-10T11:44:00.003-05:00

Latest visible satellite image from this Tuesday morning. A cold frontal trough is taking shape into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)..shown. The Low over Texas is in the upper levels with a surface low further to the east in developmental stages. High pressure is gradually easing off the east coast of Florida with very light winds over much of the state gradually becoming SE-SSE today and S to SSW-SW on Wednesday as the high pressure moves further away and the front approaches.

TODAY: Peninsular Florida in the prime time of niceties today. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (do I hear a low 80F somewhere?) except near the beaches and their cooler sea surface temperatures. Light winds and only a few clouds except toward the Panhandle and North Florida where denser clouds are producing potentially light rainfall over the Panhandle or at least dense cloud cover. The image above is annotating areas of potential weather wary concerns for Wednesday. More on this in the next image.

Overnight lows tonight in the 60Fs state wide as clouds and moisture increases and winds become due south and pick up toward the 10mph range and stronger toward daybreak.

WEDNESDAY: Front crossing through. Winds becoming S-SSW at 12-20mph, possibly gusty. Increasing clouds Central and South right after day break with rains and possible storms already in progress NW Florida approaching the West coast from near Sarasota and north then across toward JAX early through mid-morning. Winds at various levels of the atmosphere per the morning GFS Model Forecast Run show sufficient speed shear / bulk shear and even a little directional shear toward NE Florida Southward toward Ocala/Daytona/Sanford/North Titusville working into early afternoon, through various levels of the atmosphere to support winds gusts in the 40-55mph range in any heavy rain storm or thunderstorm. Thus, believe there COULD be a severe thunderstorm watch in affect at various times for different areas beginning early day through early evening (South Florida). Image for 10AM tomorrow morning per the GFS run with personal annotations...below:

In red is where I'm thinking lies a potential for severe winds at or above 58mph in gusts or even brief straight-line in any thunderstorm that can organize. Could be a brief tornado 'spin-off', but organized Deep Layer directional wind sheer is not really appearing to be sufficient for a flat out call on such formations as of this morning. South of the most southern red line, potential strong winds below severe category. Note that there is a second front to come some time toward overnight Friday night/early Saturday.

WEDNESDAY (CONT'D:) Rainfall to progress from west to east (and southward) during early to mid morning, first impacting the west side of Florida as far South as Sarasota well before reaching far East Central. Could be hearing strong to severe storm reports filtering in by mid-morning well before rainfall reaches the east coast. The Storm Prediction Center early today has ALL of Florida under a "See Text", meaning they are watching the situation, but not ready to hoist any 'for certainties' for a severe potential. If that were the case, Florida would be in what is referred to by their stringent guidelines as at least a "Slight Risk" (for severe weather). "See Text" in this case could mean that wide-spread severe weather is not expected, in which case any alerts or warnings to be issued will be on a case by case basis, and are not of a high enough threat at this point for the state to be under closer scrutiny for a full blow 'threat' . Rainfall should be reaching south of I-4 after 12-1pm and progress Southeast ward through the remainder of the state mid afternoon through mid-evening before ending all areas well before midnight Wednesday evening.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs and lows in the 50Fs..partly cloudy. The second front is forecast so far to be crossing through overnight Friday night toward Saturday morning. The details on this boundary's passage will need to be refined as the time draws closer.

WEEKEND: Drier and much cooler to cold in the mornings. It is possible highs will never crack 60F Central and North on Saturday, with a slow warming trend albeit remaining below normal on Sunday. Cool start Monday morning with what might be a big recovery into mid-week next week as temperature recover to seasonal norms, if not a notch above those.

"Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs"

Tale of Two Fronts On The Way Mid-Week

2012-01-09T14:12:00.003-05:00

Sunrise This January Morning. Image is a video clip take from the actual video now on YouTube

TODAY: Nice Sunrise This Morning. Video can be viewed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S1wnY-5zv4

Otherwise, High Pressure is centered very close to if not over the Florida peninsula today as a complex frontal boundary gathers its wits across the Deep South with low pressure centered over North Central Texas. This system will progress eastward through tomorrow with snow as far south as San Angelo and Midland/Odessa area toward the lower panhandle region. Meanwhile, the high pressure over Florida will be slowly progressing east and off the Peninsula during the day on Tuesday with southerly winds slowly ensuing. Temperatures to remain quite pleasant at to just above what would be considered seasonally 'normal'.

TUESDAY: Light winds again, with increasing cloudiness ahead of the approaching front, especially over portions of North Central Florida and all of North Florida. Some strong storms are possible over the Panhandle beginning late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

WEDNESDAY: Cold front will be approaching. South winds becoming SSW during late morning toward noon time. Becoming mostly cloudy with increasing rain chances from NW to Southeast from sunrise to sunset. At this time, would not expect any or very little rain to fall south of I-4 until after 1-2pm. Strong toward severe category storms due to strong winds are possible, mainly north of I-4. Even if no thunder is heard as far south as a line from near Vero Beach to Sarasota and north, stronger wind gusts are 'possible' due to the strong nature of the winds aloft being dragged to the surface (ground level), especially in heavier rainfall areas. The front will continue through the remainder of the state, impact Central and South from early-mid afternoon through sunset, clearing the state by mid-late evening.

THURSDAY: Not much all that cool really, another front is on the way toward the weekend. More details concerning that boundary in a later post. So far, the guidance has been holding back on the second boundary being a rain maker; however, the trend is toward the temperatures again becoming very cool toward cold 24 hours a day, not unlike our last event...most notably this go around toward the South 1/2 of the state.

HERE IS AN IMAGE FROM THE GFS with a hand plot of fronts and pressure systems for WEDNESDAY MORNING. This image is derived from the 7AM run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) computer model forecast for only the surface parameters. This model shows wind fields, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture content all the way up toward 35,000 feet above ground at what is considered in the field of meteorology "standard constant pressure heights " in increments of millibars. Again, this is only for the surface, or in other words, what it would look like in the morning newspaper.

GFS Surface depiction for Wednesday morning. The fronts and text have been drawn in for explanatory purposes.

BEYOND: Note there is the second front to come. It is behind that front the cold air will arrive, which could be a good 36-48 hours after the first front on Wednesday. There has been a fairly strong signal that we will again be fairly cold once again in Florida, and perhaps another good chance we will encounter and even greater severe weather threat heading out of week two of January toward week three. Realize, the last week of January can often be one of the coldest of the winter season, being as it is one full month after the lowest sun angle (December 22nd). There is a time lag as the earth's surface is still cooling. But, one can never know for certain. Last year, our coldest days were over during the beginning part of January.

Winds of Change Beginning - Up to 3 Rain Chances Possible Toward Mid-Month

2012-01-07T07:38:00.002-05:00

If only the weather was a simple as a posted sign. The sky does have it's signs when one learns how to read between the transparent lines.

Infrared Satellite Image and Animation Prior to Daybreak indicates that mid-upper level clouds shown by the gray to white color scheme are moving from the west toward the east. Model guidance clearly shows this influx of moisture aloft as dictated by its depiction of moisture aloft. This moisture will be in place in varying degrees, mainly across the north half of the state and a portion southward toward North Lake Okeechobee all day, thinning out a bit toward mid-late afternoon.

This image shows the moisture aloft from a different perspective. Data acquisition interpolation plotted out in color codes, with blue being the most moisture. The wind barbs point from west toward east. Animation of the satellite image shows this is in fact the direction of cloud motion

Winds of change, meaning, model consistency in a broad sense indicates the days of cold are coming to an end, and chances of rain are entering the mid-long range time frame in the second and third weeks of January. It has, afterall, been quite a while since any rain has truly been in the forecast. There is a chance that not only rain chances, but strong to winter time severe storms will be possible heading toward mid-January into Week 3. Long range temperatures are not expected, so far (fingers crossed)..to plummet to those experienced recently. This was the prognosis in recollection of an earlier post for the future, and so far this is holding true to form. Can't even really be sure but the signs are consistent. Cannot hurt to gaze forward in possibility. Meanwhile...

TODAY: It is Saturday, January 7th. As can be seen in the images above, a mid-level ripple in the atmosphere (short wave trough) is passing over head accompanied by moisture. This can be seen on the satellite image and in looking outside, I see an orange/pink sunrise beginning to aspire. Winds are dead calm and temperatures statewide are running in the mid 40s toward lower 50Fs. Warmest temperatures are under the thickest impinging cloud cover toward the Tampa area where the clouds act as a blanket aloft, not allow warmer air from the previous day to escape into the atmosphere. Like yesterday, there is wide spread fog , some very dense, in many areas. Areas outside of the fogged in locations remain unaware that neighboring areas are experiencing this fog. The fog will lift out by mid-morning at the very latest with highs in the upper 60Fs, although some mid 60Fs where clouds are most prevalent are possible. Actual high readings could be in the lower 70Fs, but I would not expect that to be the prevalent modus operandi...in other words, only relatively briefly. Most likely toward Lake Okechobee and South where clouds will not be as prevalent is where consistent 70Fs will occur, unless clouds are not as prevalent as current line of thinking is depicted.

TONIGHT Thru TUESDAY: Gradually warmer overnights by a few degrees as well as days. A few clouds, light wind, and some near to right on "True, Blue, and 72F" days...in fact, possibly even warmer, especially on Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (south). A cold front will be on the approach; the jury is out concerning its impacts as far as how much, where, when, and how strong rain will fall including a strong storm potential. It is my inclination this go around to preclude a severe threat, although it is tempting to consider it given the forecast wind fields on the GFS model. Thus, watching the Wednesday time frame for at least rain and maybe more than simply that. If conditions warrant a more in-depth detailed low down, we will delve into this day with more in-depth analysis and description in a future post or posts.

WEDNESDAY: As noted above, a possible pre-frontal trough and associated cold front will bring in the biggest chance of rain we have had for quite some time. Not necessarily at this conjuncture that it is 100 percent certain...but we are leaning that way. The good news though, is that it does not look to get much colder after the boundary passage than it is this morning.

BEYOND: Though it will not be getting much colder, there is a reason. This could very well be only the first of up to 2 more fronts within a one week to 10 day time frame, each carrying a rain potential..and each with a chance of greater impact and accompanying strong to sever storm investigation as an over all pattern in the wind fields at all atmospheric levels takes place.

Wear Layers Through Wednesday

2012-01-03T13:43:00.001-05:00

Layers of the Skin. Layers of Clothes Add Protection to our nerves and warmth from Wind Driven Cold Air That Penetrates the Top Layers of Our Skin. This added layer (s) will be necessary in varying 'degrees' through Wednesday. By Thursday late morning, we can start shedding.

TODAY: Not doubt it is cold outside today, even in the sun. In the sun protected, but wind driven shade it's a different story, downright nippy. As of 1:15pm it is 43F degrees at this location from home, colder still to the North and North West. Far cry from summer's 93F at this time. No need really to go into any fine details, since this is the story, with none other to discuss. The high pressure circulation drawing south the cold air will rotate more toward the state than retreat back to the west a bit tomorrow as another 'short wave' ripple in the atmosphere passes by. This will only change the wind direction back toward the WNW as it begins to retard in strength in the next 48 hours. Nonetheless, the cold air will continue tomorrow, albeit a bit warmer tomorrow by several degrees after noon time. What is very interesting is that dew points are running in the single digits in some locations around the Central and Northern Portions of the state..with lighter winds tonight..this will allow the ambient outside air temperature to fall all the more. Thus, there is FREEZE WARNINGS in affect for basically everyone who reads this post, except far toward South Florida and east side very close to the beaches from Brevard and south.

WEDNESDAY: Cold morning everywhere except as shown in the image below...that is to say, it's all relative. The east coast from near Canaveral and South will likely be spared the worst with a low in the 33F- 38F range, but elsewhere lows will range from the teens to low 20Fs near and north of I-10, warming toward the mid-20Fs to low 30Fs range most other areas statewide except as shown in the image. Blue indicates 30Fs and 20Fs...the narrow green along the east coast is closer to 40F, but this might be just a tad too warm as indicated by the latest GFS surface temperature depicted.

Note the 'green' along the coasts. Yet, blue extends well into the interior southern portions of the state. Light winds over the Panhandle could drop the temperature shown here significantly lower than shown here, especially with the very low dewpoint temperatures into the teens and single digits.

BEYOND: The biggest jump upward in temperature first appears will occur on Friday afternoon, and from there on out through the weekend we will be returning to climactic norms, with lows in the 40Fs to lower 50Fs, and highs in the 70Fs. No rain on the horizon yet.

Winter - For Real - Arriving As I Write This Post

2012-01-02T08:01:00.005-05:00

Microscopic View of Frost. Note the amazing order in this realm of frozen moisture madness

TODAY: No need for a weather map today. Fact is, a cold front is passing down the peninsula this morning as the sun rises, and will continue onward to the South beyond the southern tip. What's there to see? Wind behind the front will come from the NW around 12-18mph, possibly breezier toward the Barrier Islands as cold air intrusion collides with warmer air wafting just above the waters of the rivers...although strong winds are not really anticipated , the wind chill will become notable by late in the day as the sun starts to set and we lose solar heating within its capacity. Highs not likely to get out of the 60Fs today except toward South Central and South Florida.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY : Another influx of cold air tonight on continued NW winds. Coldest overnight to early morning since last winter earlier in that season. Lows in the low-mid 40Fs coasts, mid 30Fs through low 40Fs interiors. The National Weather Service is already sending out the alert of a wind chill advisory for all of Tuesday through at least late morning, apparent temperatures in the 20Fs. Some areas toward the North could see some upper 30Fs, with highs possibly not making it out of the 40Fs on Tuesday after the second surge. Time to pay the winter piper's dues at long last. The inevitable arrived.

WEDNESDAY: Possible frost away from the immediate coast, as well as some freezing temperatures toward Northern interior of North Central, but 30Fs are possible as far south as NW Dade County in rural Miami area and elsewhere, everywhere statewide (other than the Keys). Closer to 40F from the Barriers of Southern Volusia and South along the east coast within a mile or so of any coastline, except the Panhandle and all of Northern Florida where it will be colder. Lighter winds just might allow for frost formation, impacting agricultural interests of any kind, including home plants that are outside.

Thankfully, the lower wind speed will reduce the wind chill factor, with the chill factor being the resident occupant. In other words, cold by our standards and what we have been acclimatized toward. Point blank, we're not used to this. Thermostats might have to come on to heat mode. I have yet to turn mine on since that last time it was turned off a long time ago last year. A little warmer by afternoon though than on Tuesday with highs in the 50Fs to lower -mid 60Fs (South Florida).

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Very cool/cold starts, but it does not look like it will not be as cold as Wednesday morning. Warmer in the afternoons as well, and from the afternoon onward subsequent days should be progressively warmer , approaching near normal for the weekend.

WEEKEND: Back to where we started, like yesterday's weather. Another front or two is forecast to press through heading into week two of January, but not with the impact of these two that are front and center. Will this be the worst that winter has to offer this year? I have doubts, but so far, that is what is being depicted by the overnight run of the Global Forecast System into mid-month.

New Year's Day Will Be All Right - Followed By The Chilly Bite

2011-12-31T17:19:00.003-05:00

Depiction from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the surface layer of the atmosphere for New Year's Day morning.
A cold front will be approaching the SE states and Florida as well...Monday morning.

NOW: Florida is now being encompassed by high pressure at the surface and upward into the middle levels of the atmosphere. The air within the high pressure is also rather dry, so as it can be seen upon a glance outside, the clouds are few and far between. Additionally, the wind is nearly calm at times. Does it get any better than this! (that is not a question). The same conditions will prevail for New Year's Day, but the high pressure area will be shrinking in size and strength in prelude to the very big local weather change which is on the approach for the entire state.

NEW YEAR'S DAY: Much like today sums it up, perhaps a few degrees warmer, with light to calm winds at time. Dewy in the morning. Epic with few clouds.

MONDAY: Based solely on the afternoon run of the GFS model which is just becoming available as I write, the model is showing that a cold front , the cold front, will be located closely in the area of Central Florida during sunrise Monday. Timing naturally as to exactly when remains a small question, but in the big picture is rather irrelevant. The point is, behind the front is when the 'big change' in temperatures will occur. I would not expect given the circumstances shown in the moisture fields, that we will have any precipitation with the front -- mostly a band of clouds in association with moisture just ahead, along, and just behind the surface front. Winds behind the front will be from the NW, with little to no temperature rise once that front goes through..even with full sunshine at noon due to cold air advection (cold air moving in). Mixing of this cold air moving in under clearing skies in the afternoon could result in a very cool and breezy mid-late afternoon with temperatures falling through the 50Fs (which is a good 20F colder than those of today and tomorrow). In short, it looks like jackets and sweaters will be needed on Monday, especially later in the day out of wind protected areas.

TUESDAY: Coldest statewide morning of the year and season, and only 2 days into it. 2012 is starting our fresh, crisp, clear, and cold. Air mass will not only be cooling, but drying. The Wind will let up on Tuesday after a cold start with lows in the mid-upper 30Fs most areas...working toward the lower to mid-40Fs along the immediate coast of the outer most barrier islands of Brevard County southward. Tuesday will be very cool to cold all day, hardly working through the mid-50Fs except toward South Central Florida and further yet south. Becoming very cool to cold again as the sun begins to set due to the dry nature of the air mass as winds decrease with the setting sun.

WEDNESDAY: Much like Tuesday with a cold start. Frost might become an agricultural issue inland areas along the NW side of Lake Okeechobee northward across the breadth of the state except along the coasts south of Titusville. This might very well be the coldest day yet, with temperatures at or just a few degrees cooler than the previous morning.

THURSDAY: Another cool morning, but the full impact of this cold air surge will begin to be released up and away, hence, a slow warming trend. By the weekend, it looks quite nice with seasonal temperatures not too far off from recent days. There is no rain being portrayed into the second week of January. Too soon to say, naturally, if that will be the case; but, given the current set up and lessons learned from previous years, it seems that at least this pre-conceived notion would warrant some merit.

I Hope Your Past Year was Everything You Had Hoped It Would Be and More. And if not, We Can Hope that This Coming Year Will Certainly Be At Least Better if Not Much More That That. Happy 2012

Add caption

Much Cooler Air Is Approaching Today - Adjustments

2011-12-27T10:39:00.003-05:00

Blue is in general the current location of a cold front moving down the state. In yellow is an estimate of where this frontal boundary will be located within an hour or so after sunset. The front will then continue through the remainder of the state past midnight

TODAY: Last day of temperatures in the solid 70Fs for a few days for the most part for North and North Central Florida, with a dividing 70F isotherm for highs to set up across South Central Florida in the days ahead, cooler north of that line. Highs south of that line will remain in the lower-mid 70Fs (mainly along and south of a line from West Palm Beach toward Sarasota, or so).

Cold front moving in with a pretty big pattern change for Florida in regard to the temperatures. The day time highs in the upper 70Fs and lower 80Fs which have been above normal will be cooling to at and just below normal, mainly for the afternoons...for a few days. As can be seen with the image above, the boundary proper between the surface to elevations a few thousand feet above the ground is fairly broad, with clouds moving into Central prior to the actual front proper.

There are some showers and sprinkles with the front, possibly some gustier winds due to the strong winds aloft associated with the supporting upper level features (troughs) aloft. Other than than, overall atmospheric moisture is really not all so impressive. If it were summer, we would not be looking for rain chances at all today. But it is not summer, is it? Highs today for Central and especially south can get in to the lower 80Fs, but mid-upper 70Fs will be most prevalent in areas not over-ridden by clouds prior to 1PM today.

SW winds will shift to west within the boundary, and become WNW-NW after passage. Atmospheric moisture will slowly dwindle (or dry out) with time, and combined with the cold air influx associated with the front itself, we will be having to contend with an attitude and clothing adjustment, especially during the hours before noon time or around 11AM in coming days.

Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs Central/North Central, and yet cooler still North Florida, except closer to 50F from Cape Canaveral and South toward the immediate coast along and mainly east of US1. Winds not too terribly strong, but it will be cooler on Wednesday through Saturday morning closely reaching the same temperature regime until that time as winds weaken and slowly become more NE-E on Saturday and Sunday. At which point, there is a warming trend.

Outside of this front today, there is yet another to swing through in perhaps another 48--60 hours which will mostly pass through un-noticed other than to prevent what would otherwise be a warming trend. Thus, the longer duration of cooler air. In fact, in the longer range, there is yet another front showing face per the overnight run of the GFS (Global Forecast System) model output.; that too, looks to go through dry.

Winter is here now for sure with temperatures just below normal , then rising toward near normal, then falling again by later toward late week. So far though, no extremes varying vastly from climactic norms are foreseen. No frost or freezes in the cards. Just a minor attitude adjustment and an opportunity to wear some of the clothes that have been hanging in the back trenches of the closet which have not been needed for much of the season so far. New Years is not posing a problem as of the recent run other than good weather for wearing festive apparel.

Let All Good Tidings Tell, It Will Not Be Cold (yet)

2011-12-23T08:57:00.002-05:00

TODAY-CHRISTMAS: Bustling few days ahead on the ground, but aloft a mere weakening cold front will be shifting south and east through today into Central this afternoon and tonight. Very little change in temperatures behind the front, only small cooling.

South of the front today it will be warm with a SW breeze and highs possibly into the lower 80Fs except down wind of any cooler body of water. Partly cloudy sky except the Panhandle and portions of North Central toward Central late in the day as the front closes in where clouds will be of greater concentration. Very little to no rain with this boundary heading into Central Florida areas.

CHRISTMAS: More clouds expected with the front in the area. Winds will shift to the N-NE-ENE overnight and into tomorrow (Christmas Eve) for the "The Day of Days", but temperatures again will have little shifting influence to the feel...cooler though than those of today. Sprinkles are possible Central or South Central heading toward daybreak and through the day, but not an all day chance if, in fact, there it to be any at all. All in all, it will be a Peace On Earth day as far as the peninsula is considered in the realm of weather.

BEYOND: Still no raging cold air on the way is being depicted by the GFS model. It is getting toward those days of coldest, January. Time will tell, not the models at this point.

Truth or Consequences": In Weather It's Neither Nor

2011-12-20T10:16:00.002-05:00

Colorized Schematic of Surface Temperatures Depicted Above with Orange toward Red being the warmest. In the next few days this will continue to be the case, that being, warmest overnight through mid-morning along the east coast from the Cape and South as SE-SSE winds continue. Afternoons warm all areas. Christmas Eve Day may yet be the warmest day of all with highs in the lower 80Fs in many areas

TODAY: Air Mass Modification in full swing since yesterday continues with winds having become more southeasterly as opposed to northerly on Sunday, modification in the sense that moisture in the lower levels is increasing and temperatures are becoming more comfortable (warmer if you like). This trend will continue through Christmas Eve day as noted yesterday. A cold front will approach from the Deep South region but never really be able to penetrate the bulbous region of high pressure located closely to that of a normal summer time regime, affectionately referred to as The Bermuda High which was amazingly more often than not absent during the summer months. In turn, cold winter like weather remains out of the equation for the time being, with temperatures running at to above normal through Christmas Eve Day, and potentially beyond.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY : The primary cold front is still being depicted to slide off and away from most of the state (to the north) , thanks to the high pressure zone across the state. Winds remain much like that of those today and tomorrow, with the air becoming warmer incrementally during this time frame. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how close one is located to and downwind of the cooler Atlantic Waters and larger inland lakes - cooling of the waters occurs with the lower height/sun angle with the formal approach to Winter now on December 22 at 12:30AM (Thursday morning just after Midnight).

With continued SE-SSE low level wind flow, moisture will increase enough for the possibility of light showers near the coast around late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly further inland across South Florida with the ever present stratocumulus clouds possible, especially late morning through early evening.

CHRISTMAS EVE/SATURDAY: Winds will slowly be veering from SSE (south south east) toward the SSW-SW on Saturday as the next cold front approaches (and high pressure starts to move out of the picture). This could result in a cooler morning east coast, but much warmer all areas by afternoon contingent upon the amount of cloud coverage over any specific area.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Cold front/cool front still forecast to be stretched across Central to South Central during the day as the front undergoes frontalysis (washes out). This could place Central to South Florida (somewhere in there) in a position for rainshowers and just maybe some thunder. It does not look as much likely for thunder though as the model run (of the GFS) had portrayed yesterday. The ECMWF (European Model) had a fairly good rationalization yesterday, and the two models seem to be coming to some sort of agreement that this front will not have a significant impact to our temperatures, only slightly noticeable.

Best chance for rainfall now appears to be overnight Christmas Eve and through the day after Christmas, although if the trend continues...combined with a basis of past fronts so far this season..that chance could easily end up decreasing...but not completely.

BEYOND: Although we might experience some mid-upper 40Fs interior and the north half of the state before the end of 2011, the GFS has had a habit of overforecasting low temperatures in the extended (making them too cold), so not ready to ride with that one yet..it is just to hard to believe how fortunate the warm weather lovers have been so far since climatological winter began on December 1. But, we have not reached Mid-January through Early February, the real indicator. Tables can turn quickly.

In the long range, the Truth is yet to be known (is it ever?), the Consequence as far as weather is concerned will be based on the Truth, and the affects on us will be how well we take responsibility to be prepared for the Circumstances. By watching the models, the sky, and sometimes nature we can see the signs of things to come and which way to head.

"Sometimes the correct fork depends on the Circumstances, but I do like the arrow pointing up toward Blue Sky"

Very Warm With Possible Storms on Christmas Day?!

2011-12-19T15:02:00.004-05:00

Morning Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Forecast for the surface at 7pm this evening shown above. Indications are 'on' for possible severe (orange) weather primarily in Central and SE Texas, with a broader expanse of thunderstorms as well (yellow roughly speaking). Florida's weather is being dictated by high pressure ENE of the state at the surface which will move a bit further east during the week.

TODAY- THURSDAY: Weather for most of the state between the remainder of today remains pleasantly benign albeit a bit breezy at times during the afternoon, especially near the coast and open larger inland lakes. Partly cloudy sky, no showers with highs ranging through the 70Fs. There is a small chance of enhanced cloudier periods toward the East Coast, with a possible spittle of drizzle or rain here or there from time to time by late Wednesday, but most likely could have foregone mention. East to ESE winds today gradually curve (veer) toward the ESE-SE then SSE by Thursday. Warmer around the 24 hours beginning overnight tonight when evening lows will not fall as low as previous days, especially along the east coast South of I-4. The trend continues statewide through Thursday, most warmly noticeable beginning Wednesday. Numbers on the temperatures really not necessary, whatever you've felt where ever you are located recently other than yesterday, will be similar to those.

The first official astronomical day of Winter will be on the 22nd of the month this year, or Thursday, technically as the clock reads. It is always somewhere within the 21st-22nd time frame.

FRIDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY (SUNDAY): The low pressure area shown in today's graphic will be moving toward the NE as indicated. The trailing cold front in model runs of the GFS is showing less and less of a likelihood of ever impacting the state other than possibly the panhandle area with a rain chance. Otherwise, the remainder of the state remains fairly quiet with temperatures approaching above normal once again, the ongoing theme so far this season (and year as well). However, as the parent low moves NE ward toward New England, another system could form along it's tailing flank in the Deep South. It is that second system late in the week and into the weekend that will require closer scrutiny for potential future 'impacts' statewide.

Ironically, two of the first full days of full fledged "winter" could be close to the warmest we've experienced in some time, with highs reaching toward the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, especially on Christmas Eve Day (Saturday). There is also a chance of showers and just possibly some thunder across Central or South Central Portions mid-late afternoon Saturday and into the evening. It is too early to say with any level of certainty given the number of days remaining until then. The situation does bear watching if for no other reason than well, let's face it, there has been nothing worth noting over the peninsula in quite some time other than a few periods of rain showers and flat topped stratocumulus clouds.

The morning GFS run indicates the front to cross the state only slowly all through Christmas Day with possible thunderstorms, but for now will ride with rain-showers..with good coverage. This is all a new prognosis from the model though, so again, a few more model runs to go to gain greater certainty regarding Christmas. ..and will add the day after as well if this morning's run were to verify as truth.

BEYOND: Much cooler 'whenever' the front can go through. But again, this is a new evolution since previous days..and could easily shift back to 'benign weather' mode by this time tomorrow. Chances are this first system now in development in the Southern Plains region today is throwing a wrench into the equations. Thus low confidence outlook from Thursday and beyond.

Florida Cold Front Today (..and... For Christmas?)

2011-12-17T11:24:00.002-05:00

"Here's Comes Da Front" - Light winds and good sunshine Central. This image from late morning shows clearly where the clouds exist, with Central in the 'clear' until mid-afternoon as front pulls into 'station' from the north and west. Some sprinkles
are possible with the boundary, as well as toward SE Florida, especially overnight toward Sunday morning SE Coast. Minimal Temperature impacts, mainly along and north of I-4.

TODAY: A very weak cold front is crossing the state today, but frankly other than the clouds as shown above, it is a bit difficult to discern on model guidance. The best tool was analysis of the mid-level wind fields and their forecast parameters combined with low level moisture content in the atmosphere. With those in mind, the drier low level/surface air will be moving through and down the state today through early Sunday, with the drier air moving into Dead Central toward Midnight with drier, and thus cooler air to follow through sunrise.

Otherwise, we could likely expect to see increasing clouds Central by mid-late afternoon into sunset, with more coverage all day South Central to South Florida. North Florida is already in the boundary and the clouds, which are already clearing in some areas, panhandle. More clouds again possible there though too, until after dark.

SUNDAY: NNW-NW winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon, scattered clouds by afternoon with highs maybe 2-5 degrees cooler than recent days. Morning lows also 2-4 degrees cooler immediate east coast south of I-4, with the coolest change to occur over the NW Quadrant of the state, including areas such as Ocala, Brooksville, NW of Orlando (as well as Orlando) and west toward Tampa, falling by 5-10 degrees more.

Why is the front not going to make things all 'Christmas Cold' like? Recall, last year at this time it had already fallen below freezing along the beaches even.

Water Froze Over in Bird Bath 12/14/2010 in Cape Canaveral

Forecast position of front around 2000 ft above ground tonight. Note that the north winds are circulating low level air from South Texas northward then back south to Florida. This, as opposed to what a true 'Winter Blast" would have origins from, shown with the "X'd out Blue area indicating a north wind and jet stream from the Arctic Regions. Big Difference!

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Wind will veer from NW-NNW on Sunday toward the NNE-NE on Monday and eventually E-ESE byThursday. In light of that factor, wind will again be coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean waters instead of off the Polar Ice Cap. I don't see any Ice Bergs or Polar Bears floating offshore this morning, but did see some folks walking barefoot in the sand. In short, return to more of the same with the probable and seasonal afternoon and evening stratocumulus cloud decks re-emerging and moving slowly across and/ or forming over the state.

CHRISTMAS PRELIMINARY FORECAST: Wow, last I saw from the late night GFS (Global Forecast System model) run yesterday, the next bona fide cold front to move in will be on Christmas Eve. This was a relatively 'new' concept to the model...previous runs of the same model had been holding off on the colder air (possible 40Fs wide spread), so not quite ready to prepare the Yule Logs just yet. However, if one is hoping for the extra cold bite to the Christmas morning air, it just might be on tap. Either way, it is to last (per that model run) but 48 hours tops before the next front, New Year's Eve.

Rain Chance Highest Over the "Northeast Quadrant"

2011-12-12T09:21:00.000-05:00

For the image of the day, the colors of yellow show where some fog is currently most prevalent, the light green where rain is most active, and the purple indicates where the best chance of rain showers should exist through the end of the day...but not limited to that area.

TODAY: A bit hurried today, but wanted to post considering the 'what appears will be' situation per latest model runs, current very active radar, and satellite imagery. Some basics are warranted for insight as to why we are having some rain today in an otherwise what would be a no frills day.

The remains of the old front of late last week are not apparent any more (the one that crossed on Thursday) in the wind fields, but the moisture remains after backing back north the past two days. So there we have that factor to consider (moisture). The next is that there appears to be a shallow but nonetheless readily apparent inverted trough running from the SE coast of the state NNW ward toward West of JAX. The trough comes ashore over South Central Brevard, and all of the rain showers are occurring to the east of that boundary , but...there is one more participant, the clincher. A 700mb trough (at around 10,000 ft) is passing to the north of the state and across the north half of it as well. With that trough is a more westerly wind flow as opposed to ENE-ESE winds at the surface. This trough in the mid-levels will cross the state (mostly to the north) today, not reaching south of Central Florida. Thus, rainshowers along the intersect of the low level and moist easterly component winds under the westerly component winds aloft (and likely some weak energy)...will continue to manifest before us as clouds and rain as can be seen in the above image. The best chance for rain shower/rain chances later today per the NAM, GFS, and RUC models of 2AM are closely 'concesused' in the lavender area this afternoon, although who Really Knows. Best bet though,and willing to lay down the cards.

TUESDAY: Shower chances, although less prevalent, will oblige to shower further south from near Brevard toward Vero..or maybe toward West Palm, mainly east side. Our easterly wind component slowly backs toward ENE-NE by Wednesday, inducing some drying and ending rain chances. But until then, some showers possible tomorrow as well but not as heavy as some that are occurring today ..especially like those toward JAX at this hour. Cape Canaveral had a good shower about 45 minutes prior to this writing, long gone now. Radar is not overly illuminated toward Central but NE FLorida is a different matter. We can look though, see for yourself...

BEYOND: After Tuesday we are 'good to go' with less chance of rain. NE - ENE winds continue and could become breezy at times, but no changes really as far as our current temperature regime is concerned. In fact, not much change AT ALL up until Christmas? Can it be? I'm waiting for Jack Frost's Ax to Fall...as was the case last year...but so far he does not seem to have his sights set on a Florida Get Away any time soon. Hooray!

The Stage of Constant State

2011-12-11T13:17:00.001-05:00

This image shows the Global Forecast Model (GFS) depiction of afternoon temperature and surface wind direction and speed. The brighter toward red, the warmer the temperatures. Blue is the cold. Florida has seen no 'blue' except toward the north side of the state since last winter. On this date last year, a Freeze was on the approach. What we see in this image as far as color coded air temperature is to remain a near constant, steady state for at least a week or longer.

TODAY: Easterly wind and ample moisture from a long departed by flailing old cold front that crossed the state on Thursday is the culprit for some clouds and rain showers. High pressure to the north of the state provides the wind direction. This high will move eastward and be replaced by another as shown in the image's blue arrows. Another front will attempt to move in, but so far it appears that it will never really be able to impact Florida.

Thus, along the coast the temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 60Fs overnight with daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs through next week. Moisture from the old front is being drawn west and across the state toward tne next front approaching the state, and in doing so is bringing just enough of that moisture to provide the impetus for shower development...at almost any time..any where. Even now, as I write...I hear some rain falling outside, but it should be brief. The GFS model implies there is a better chance than not of more of the same, especially toward the East Central, but radar is not behaving like the model, or any of them really..however, all in all, the moisture will 'be around' from time to time until sunset.

Below is the latest radar image while it was raining. Already, it is ending. My area is circled.

TONIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY: Again not unlike today. Although the constant prevails, the location of showers can shift, seemingly on a whim. It appears as of late morning that the moisture source will cut off by late Tuesday though..so we can take even a rain chance out of the equation through Thursday at least at that point.

BEYOND: Easterly flow continues at the same generic speed, ebbing at night. Another period of coastal stratocumulus cloud layers eventually unfolds preceding another front which might impact around or closer to Christmas. How can this be? So long, no cold front...no cold air? Very typical La Nina type pattern without an interseasonal variation such as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which brought cold air last year. The National Weather Service is watching the Arctic Oscillation in days to come though, or so I heard yesterday. Time has a way of revealing the future, but so far, that future is beyond the scope of reasonable assumptions.

A "Pet Tornado" in a cage at the National Weather Service spins
harmlessly, showing the magic of water vapor and motion combined through condensation isolated to a previously established bound

"Get Ready to Bundle!!!"...Floridians

2011-12-07T14:56:00.001-05:00

Latest mid afternoon visible satellite image with hand drawn cold frontal positions. Solid blue is current front location, with dash lines showing its general location at 6 and 9 pm..give or take an hour or so.

NOW: At 3pm a cold front is careening steadily down and across the Florida Peninsula with passage already post-Tallahassee and temperatures behind the boundary close to 50F degrees accompanied by NW winds gusting toward 30mph. Not so nice for mid afternoon. Front will continue to drive SE ward during the late afternoon through mid-evening.

A word of the wises is to be prepared for surprises. But no surprise here. If heading out tonight, bring a good and trusty jacket to take a nip off the accompanying wind chill. Sweaters might not do the trick as nicely.

TODAY/TONIGHT: As noted above, "Here's Comes Da Front!". There's no turning back unfortunately, so grit your teeth a bear it. Won't be all THAT bad, but after such a prolonged warm period, and especially considering the nice afternoon today to the south of the front with temperatures near 80F or so, it's bark will be as bad as its bite within a few hours after passage along the journey to Miami. The front now appears to be over the Gainesville area as a reference point.

Front to cross Dead Central between the hours of 5:30pm - 7pm, accompanied by cloudy skies, west winds, and a slowly falling temperature. Possible sprinkles as well, but nothing significant. Post frontal passage (after dark) will yield to clearing skies and falling temperatures, especially after 8:30PM across Dead Central (sooner further north). The front will eventually slide into home plate across the Southern End of the Peninsula around 9-10:30pm, with similar sky conditions but less chance of a sprinkle or showers. Temperatures here too will fall, but the bigger temperature changes this go-around will occur over and north of the Central Lake Okeechobee area as a general line of demarcation of the coolest air.

THURSDAY: Very cool, to almost cold considering the conditions of recent days. It's all relative, and this relative will be not unlike Auntie Grezelda...sour and grumpy, but not quite bitter. Lows along the immediate ..and I mean IMMEDIATE east coast from Brevard and south near 48-51F warming to the south toward West Palm, or in another light, perhaps the coolest this area has seen this season by a smidge.

Elsewhere, inland lows and west toward Naples will experience mid-upper 40Fs..with upper 30Fs interior North Central and even colder toward I-10 at sunrise. Winds NW around 10-18mph...with a wind chill evident no doubt.

Winds toward early afternoon already taking the turn around the bend toward the N-NNE and there ends the worst of the worst already. Not bad. I hate uninvited guests anyway. Clouds off of the Atlantic should be able to make a relatively fast return to the coast over night late on Thursday heading into Friday.

FRIDAY: East coasters can toast to morning lows already a good 10F degrees warmer. Guests leave messes...and in this event it will come in the form of a better chance of onshore trouncing low level stratocumulus clouds, especially over South Florida closer to the decaying boundary. Highs on Friday probably to remain in the mid-upper 60Fs North Central and Central, but warmer toward the lower 70Fs along the drive to West Palm and south. NNE-NE winds with possible showers late Friday and especially Saturday toward the SE Coast of the state.

SATURDAY: Continually modifying air mass (less dry and slightly warmer) through Saturday with an ENE wind. Clouds again, coastal showers/sprinkles as far north as Vero Beach.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Showers possible mainly within 20 miles of the east coast most anywhere with temperatures returning to near normal as days of past. Warmer overnight lows especially due to extended cloud coverage, but afternoons not so warm due to the same cloud coverage. Give a little, take a littel.

BEYOND: Not much change...and a return to conditions to how it once was only yesterday and the few days before then. Next front is not on the agenda for nearly a week if not more, so no need to rush for boarding passes just yet.

Again, much cooler to apparently almost a bit cold tonight and into the first parts of Thursday...especially the north half of the state through late morning. AC, off. Jackets, On.

Keeping Fingers Crossed - Winter Has No Place in Florida, So Far

2011-12-06T05:39:00.001-05:00

For warm air frolickers in Florida, Fate is On Our Side. Recall last winter's freeze, a faded memory of times past. This morning , I recall what was to come just one week from today at this time last year. A freeze on the beaches, and ice in the bird bath.

http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/2010/12/thar-she-blows-batten-hatches.html

TODAY: Another day like those of the recent. East to ESE winds, light, with some early morning mist and fog toward the northern portions of the state now in progress will lift out shortly after sunrise toward mid-morning. Highs again in the mid-upper 70Fs for the most part, with some patches of stratocumulus clouds from time to time. So far, my area has had a sprinkle or trace of rain 4 consecutive days, with a very nice December rainbow only yesterday. A rarity gift at this time of year, like a big package wrapped in a colorful bow. Considering the approach of the Christmas Holiday...a rain-bow.

I took several photos yesterday. A friend of mine in the Storm Chaser community affectionately refers to rainbows as "Peace Offerings"... The Storm Has Passed and we can now rest. The odd thing about seeing a rainbow at this time of year is where it is located in the sky because of how far south the sun is located along the horizon. The viewer must have one's sun to their back to be able to see this phenomenon, and only once the sun has reached a certain angle above the horizon (either right after sunrise or toward sunset).

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Light winds after sunset, dewy with possible fog away from the coasts, but rapidly eroding after sunrise. Temperatures remain on the par. Warmer on Wednesday as winds becomes SW during the afternoon. It has been quite a while since we have had a SW wind, and with that will be warmer highs around 80F or so under partly cloudy skies. A cold front is on the way. Mid-upper level high pressure areas moving east and away as a trough of low pressure with the attendant front replaces them toward the East Coast of the U.S., thus the wind shift and warmer air...but only for Wednesday. Enjoy.

THURSDAY: Front appears now that it will proceed through the state toward Florida, but will quickly undergo frontalysis , break down, from late Thursday and into the weekend after crossing Central shortly after sunset Wednesday evening, onward to South Florida it goes by sunrise. But not before we have a very cool morning, not unlike that of around one week ago with lows in the low 50Fs toward the east coast south of I-4, but 40Fs being the rule west of I-95 North Central and North (even colder here) and toward the west coast to the Northwest side of the Big Lake. Fear not, the Fickle Finger of Fate (or for purposes of this post, of Cold Air Fate) will bid adieu almost as quickly as it moves in. Winds becoming NNE-ENE from Thursday afternoon and beyond. This direction is again off of the ocean waters as it has been and was last weekend, and thus, temperatures will quickly moderate back toward what we have already been experiencing the past few days by Friday.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Winds having returned to their NE-ENE direction as mentioned above...could also translate to a slightly better chance of showers somewhere along the east coast toward the interior. Until this time comes closer to 'real-time' exactly where those showers will have the best chance of manifesting will need to be determined. The key point at this conjuncture is that it does appear the chance of measurable showers as opposed to 'cloud tinkles'...will be better than it has been this week. Although, there has been some measurable amounts here and there from time to time, simply too far wide spread and erratic to warrant mention.

BEYOND: Amazingly, the GFS shows the next cold front not 3 days down the line, not 5 days down the line (the norm this time of year), nor even a week down the line. Beyond that, is anyone's guess. As noted in the top image, the GFS hardly shows much of anything other than another frontal boundary somewhere in the great beyond that has an impact similar to what that of this Thursday's toward the 3rd week in December around the 18th or so. Go figure. This year is nothing like last year...running on track with a solid La Nina type pattern from all appearances.

A Prelude to Winter Begins Tonight

2011-11-28T09:05:00.001-05:00

Mid-Morning position of Surface Cold Front and weak pre-frontal trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Both will tandem to the east, with the leading edge of reaching the Central Interior during early to mid-afternoon, then east of I-95 toward 4pm and thereafter into the evening hours.

Wind barbs and fronts alone do not provide the mental image we need to envision what the boundaries will mean when looking outside. The vehicle to provide a future reference point is the visible satellite image. The fronts have been recreated here for reference....the green shows how the band of showers and rain are aligned with the front, so timing from this can be extrapolated eastward with time. With some daytime heating expect to see more clouds anywhere , but the will not be of much consequence until at least early afternoon toward Orlando (as a reference point), but will spread to the immediate coast after 3pm or so. Showers as well. Note the extent of cloud cover behind the cold front over the Gulf yet to come well after the front has moved east of the Florida Peninsula.

Lastly, from a broader perspective, we can observe here that the surface features are contained within a 3 dimensional entirety , consisting of this mid-level low pressure system ...as well as an upper level low (not shown here).

Within the mid-levels toward 8500 feet overhead resides a deepening low pressure area. The 'spokes' in light blue represent for presentation purposes only of further discussion below how there will be three fronts to move across the state today through Wednesday evening. Each passage will evoke a slowly drying atmospheric moisture profile throughout the columns in the vertical, with the second and third spokes being the primary contributors within that process.

TODAY: Wheels in the sky keep on turning, and today's is rolling across the Southern Mississippi River Valley Region and the Deep South with more than one attendant surface low. The surface to mid level lows as shown in the above are both contained within the Mother Load..the upper atmosphere. The mid-upper levels are almost stacked overtop each other. As history tells us, that means slow progression of the ensemble as a whole, so it will be with us through the remainder of the week in various forms. Possible rain rain impacts are the first and foremost variable of interest since they will be first realized.

SSE-S winds today at 10-20mph with gusts to 25+ perhaps over the waterways. Partly cloudy skies earlier with cloudier conditions spreading toward the east from the west coast during late morning and into the afternoon. Timing of features per close model agreement places showers/rain near Orlando (and north) around 2-3pm and on the immediate east coast in the 5pm time frame.

Not everyone will see showers today, especially locals who live toward the east side of the state along and south of the north side of Lake Okeechobee. Thunder is not expected, although a few rumbles are not entirely zero'd out ...just highly unlikely. The atmosphere is neutral enough in the instability parameter such that it would not be an issue.

The main impacts are cloudy skies, breezy, and showers from late afternoon through 8pm or so in the area north of the less likely area to the south. Winds will become SW-W-WNW shortly before, during, and after passage of the two boundaries...which will clear the entire state after midnight ..apparently most definite prior to sunrise all locations.

TUESDAY: Mainly West winds at 10-18mph G 22. Partly cloudy after a morning low in the lower 60Fs far east to mid-50Fs interior. Cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs South Florida. In all cases, cooler north of I-4.

WEDNESDAY: The second boundary/front will be moving through late in the day after another cool start in the 50Fs and low/mid 60Fs. This will be the first influx of truly (noticeably) drier air. Passage of this boundary will take the winds toward a definitive NW direction over night with falling temperatures to a greater degree as the drier air moves in.

THURSDAY: The second boundary now having cleared the state with much drier air (lower dew points). Lows in the low 50Fs to upper 40Fs many areas except the far north (colder), and south (warmer). Very cool Thursday afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs with much clearer skies by now if not sooner on Wednesday. Hoping for 70Fs though, which is not out of the question.

FRIDAY: Round -the- wheel goes as it lifts toward the eastern Great lakes. The final front will have to approach from a much more northerly directory, with N-NNE winds to follow during the afternoon. Timing will have to be re-adjusted in regard to exactly when this will occur. Some clouds associated with this feature, followed by a warming trend through the weekend to seasonal norms.

Fairwell Warm Weather Friend...Parting is not Sweet Sorrow

2011-11-27T13:22:00.001-05:00

5PM EST Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model depiction of surface cold front for today in its last model run
This front will approach from the west with a fairly rare but steadfast north/south orientation, making only slow progress into most of Monday as the supporting mid-level low only recently becoming apparent forms in the yellow area for descriptive purposes. In Green is where the best chance of measurable rainfall with the front itself seems the most probable as of this time, with the area in orange a thunderstorm area to be honed in on for future reference but in no way definitive at this stake.

TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY: Very little change from what we are seeing over Central and South Florida as winds continue from the ESE-SE at 10-20mph with higher gusts at points in time almost anywhere depending on the daytime heating and any manifestation of nearby low topped sprinkling showers which dictate near by conditions (a few stronger gusts/slightly cooler due to cloud cover) - of which will be few and far between.

Animation of early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that most areas other than toward NE and SE Florida will see more sun than clouds, although this could change come lower sun angle time of day , but not of significant due cause. Otherwise, temperatures running in the 70Fs with some lower 80Fs away from the east coast north of Ft. Pierce and toward the west of I-95.

By noon Monday, the cold front should be approaching if not nearly on the west coast of Florida, with winds becoming more southerly at 10-20mph with similar if not slightly warmer highs along a low" 80Fs more common" thread. Showers and possible thunder over the Panhandle toward Tampa with time, possibly as far south as Sarasota and eventually Punta Gorda west coast, with a few showers possible east side south of Daytona as the afternoon wears on, but those would not be related to the approaching boundary on the west side.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cold front, due to its orientation as shown above, will clear from west to east along a common longitude, passing or clearing for example I-95 within nearly the same hour from Daytona Beach to Miami..which per the latest NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (yes, the models have finally reached near mutual concession to agree)...around 7:30-9PM Monday evening. Best rain chances as indicated above as well, but most anywhere not shown here could receive showers as well. The least likely area appears to be SE Florida ...in the rain realm...but we can't know definitively until some rough spots in information get ironed out.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: To skip back to the previous paragraph, it could be that the precipitation to occur from west to east Monday afternoon through mid evening will actually be along 'PRE'-frontal boundary, with the true front yet to cross the state a day later. In either case, it does not seem to have an effect on sensible weather, only wind direction.

West Winds after the trough presses to the east of one's location with rain chances quickly dwindling and over by sunrise Tuesday. Much cooler air could come in two phases but the sum total of both would be mainly to re-inforce the initial surge neither taking away from, or adding to, the numbers.

Lows interior to south Florida in the mid-upper 40Fs, and upper 40Fs to just a tick above 50F far east side. Colder all areas north of I-4. Afternoon highs warmer than the cold previously feared (but not surprised of this) on all days into the mid-upper 60Fs to low 70Fs south with westerly winds ticking clockwise toward NW on Thursday with time.

FRIDAY/BEYOND: Preliminary. Somewhere in the scheme of things heading toward next weekend another front will be making an appearance. Ironically, this cold front could come in the back door, from the North to NNE as opposed to our incomer from the west on Monday. Ironic because it is behind this front that conditions actually warm due to the wind becoming N-NNE-NE behind it. More implicitly, cold air will be modified as it blows across warmer ocean waters with a net result of a return to the old "stratocumulus clouds, warmer overnight coastal lows, and comfortable afternoons in the 70Fs with the ever-present chance of sprinkles of maybe showers somewhere along the line"...too soon to say.

CONCLUDING THIS POST: It continues to look like it will be much cooler to almost cold Tuesday through at least Thursday morning, and probably Friday's as well...with temperatures running below normal. This expectation in and of itself would not be of much perceived impact t'were it mid-winter, but we have been running above normal for quite a while, so these colder temperatures brought forth with a period of some winds in the 10-20+ mph will add the wind chill factor in. Cannot recall the last time that was even of concern. Looks like the A/C can go for a while...but what of the heat? Individual preference , "You Be The Judge".

Black Friday Forecast Frills - Bleak or Best Buy?

2011-11-25T14:57:00.001-05:00

For image's sake, this is what the clouds over the state look like from above this afternoon, compliments of satellites above which relay the information down to planet bound denizens

TODAY Through SATURDAY: High pressure just to the north of the state is slowly sliding east with Florida in the return easterlies behind its clockwise circulation. Moisture is just deep enough to generate the clouds as seen here and if you look outside, there as well (in most cases). Otherwise, winds from the East to ESE at 10-20mph with some higher gusts and highs in the mid-upper70Fs are the prevailing modus operandi through Saturday, although it could be a few degrees warmer (especially than those of today) toward the Panhandle. Shower chances are not zero, but even if they can manifest, they will be so light as to be considered 'no impact sensible'.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Sunday's winds become SE-SSE (if not South), with temperatures running into the upper 70Fs - lower 80Fs (most likely). From there begins the dilemma. So, rather than provide a detailed and quite laborious task of synoptic scale differences between each model at various atmospheric levels, we can look at why this is the case at hand in the first place. This can be best performed by observing a few discrepancies between the weather models used to forecast temperature, rain, and wind based on the mathematical equations employed by each without going into detail.

ASSUMPTION (S): It appears that there could be some interseasonal variations being detected or in process but which have not yet come to fruition. Most readers will have heard of La Nina which seems to be running right about normal (in many years it is not present, or the counterpart Le Nino is in force). That is a factor to consider. Then consider this possibility: the Madden-Julian Oscillation, affectionally referred to as MJO (as opposed to having a MOJO). Yet still, perhaps the North Atlantic Oscillaion (NAO) might also be scheming an attack to ruffle the forecast's feathers. Point is, given the time of year , climactic winter on the very near approach and variations within this time a near given initially, combined with those additive factors, each model by all appearances seems to be weighing one of more of those variants into their equations..but providing astoundingly dissimilar results. Examples:

The Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: Front to cross the state overnight Sunday night, accompanied by rain showers for at least the north half of the state, followed by a significant cold down. Lows in the upper 30Fs (north) through the mid-40Fs south by Monday/Tuesday time frame, with highs never breaching 60F most areas. The GFS of this morning shows these very cool to near cold (as well as very dry) Floridian conditions to prevail through early Wednesday . Well below normal. The next front arrives after perhaps 18-24 hours of slight warming before yet another re-enforcing front comes through dry...and more cold air of similar consequence...a long cold week by standards of the past 8 months.

The European ECMWF model on the other hand from last night does not have the front going through until sometime toward late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Additionally, it forms a surface low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just off Cedar Key...with much more time for southerly flow to prevail prior to frontal passage. That would allow for not only deeper moisture to be in place prior to passage, but also create a set up much more favorable for thunderstorms as well (perhaps severe). Frontal passage was generally indicated sometime Wednesday at the latest per this model's bidding.

The NoGAPS and Canadian Models fall somewhere in between the two, with the CMC (Canadian) coming closer to shaking hands in agreement with the Europeans. Then again, the Navy NOGAPS model sides with the GFS, not exactly...close, but slower.

Eventually, something resembling a model treaty will evolve , likely (or hopefully) by Saturday evening. By the time we reach Sunday morning...it should be completing signature, but we will have the opportunities to see in each and every subsequent model run of each player just exactly what the TREND is.

If only it was as easy as going to Best Buy to know right now. The common remark made by National Weather Forecast offices in these cases sums it up neatly and simply, "Stay Tuned" (the old fall back, "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises" could aptly work as a second opinion of opinions.) Or as Confucius Say, "Forecast Model Not For Sale, Look at Sky and Figure out yourself".

Several Weather Changes Next 7 Days - Gentle Intro to Winter

2011-11-23T09:43:00.001-05:00

In blue are generalized cool front locations as noted in the time-phased image shown. Coverage of showers at any one time will not be extensive and will be mostly associated with the front itself upon approach and passage

TODAY: Cool front across the Panhandle to make slow progress into Central Florida from early afternoon through sunset. A prefrontal trough associated with the radar echoes shown in the image above is damping out, as such are the showers. Increasing cloud coverage to spread across Central (some already in place), with breaks in the clouds to allow highs today to reach the upper 70Fs to around 80F or so. Warmest S. Florida by a few degrees , not significantly so. Using a combination of morning RUC and NAM, the RUC appears a little fast. Likewise, perhaps the NAM is too slow. In combination, it appears another diurnal pre-frontal trough will form across the CDL (Central Diving Line) Zone this afternoon with daytime heating and hold tight, allowing the cold front itself to play 'catch-up". This will for whatever can be mustered up with cloud breaks as the front progresses only slowly SE ward from North Florida to provide a focus for rain to happen chance.

Suspect much of North Central will be stabilized/hampered by greater cloud coverage from the pre-existing trough that is moving out this morning, and so rain there should be limited to sprinkles and a few spits. Further south toward Dead CDL, cloud coverage will be less extensive. West winds all day, possibly becoming WNW behind a pre-frontal trough North Central (and prior to the actual front). Winds from surface to well aloft will be mostly unidirectional (from the same direction) with height, and instability will be severely hampered by cloud cover and be mostly surface based due to mulit-layered clouds. Thus, the better chances of rain today/tonight appears will occur along and south of the secondary pre-frontal trough from Brevard County, possibly part of Orange/Seminole and south toward Miami (with time overnight as the front moves in that direction). If there is to be any thunder at all, it should be elevated type harboring mostly incloud or cloud to cloud lightning, but not feeling very strong on any of said activity. If so, Brevard to Martin County within 20 miles of the coast.

The image above shows general locations will the front should be today through early Thursday. It currently appears that a "diurnal frontal stall cycle' will occur near I-4 to Dead Central during the mid-late afternoon, with no clear delineation as to exactly where the front is located until after dark once that cycle is complete. From that aspect, the front will be free to plow through toward the Straits by sunrise if not before. Best chance of showers appears to be when convergence/low level winds sync with the time phased diurnal cycle combined with the fronts location near Central as high pressure builds east across the Deep South region toward Georgia. This puts the best covergence/abrupt wind shift on the east side of the state toward Southern Volusia / Brevard region around 8pm as the front will be close to there. All in all, most people today will not receive rain under partly to mostly cloudy skies and west to West Southwest winds around 10-18mph this afternoon. At some points (or points), skies will be cloudy, but for residents across South Central and South that will occur after sunset.

TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY: Front to press south and be followed by a NNE-NE wind by sunrise most locations (after veering overnight from the NW). Sunrise should yield a Thanksgiving Day with lows in the lower 60Fs and 50Fs north Florida, warming to the mid-upper 60Fs toward Central and upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs South Central to South. Cool and breezy day with winds from the NE at 15-22mph, gusts toward 28mph. Looks like possible Lake Wind Advisory conditions and Small Craft Advisories might be required. Stratocumulus clouds, but not extensive to follow by mid-late afternoon. Not all that much warming during the day, perhaps up it about 5 degrees from morning lows as already modified cool air advection sweeps across the state from off the Atlantic. In short, breezy and cool with some clouds. For Friday, NAM continues with bringing in rain showers most of the east coast by morning or shortly thereafter with a nearly saturated atmosphere from the surface to 5000 ft. This seems like 'overplay", and if even so, having a hard time rationalizing anything but more clouds as opposed to showers.

BEYOND: Next front to impact the state beginning Sunday through Monday. Rainfall appears will be more likely most areas with this front, only 4 days later. But hold on, yet another front could follow in due time within another 3-4 days if not less. This next front could manifest anything from widespread showers to isolated thunder, maybe even severe. If so (the latter), it would most likely be for the North Half of the state. Good wind shear but meager thermal instability being the ever present liability as we approach the last quarter of the year, aka Winter.

As noted yesterday, much cooler from Tuesday and through the first week of December, except maybe for a day or two before the second front comes in to re-enforce Winter's Urgent Calling Card. So far, it doesn't appear it will be extremely cold, just very cool to almost cold (in the mornings) for a prolonged period. Slow and easy... for easier adjustment without a profound shock to the system.

Are "Winter Like" Conditions Systematically Oozing In Through Next Week?

2011-11-22T10:46:00.001-05:00

Today's Broad, Albeit Generous, Brush of where precipitation could fall. The best chances appear to be toward the interior north late afternoon through mid-evening. Sprinkles could occur within the yellows. Nothing beats color coded weather. Wish it was that simple.

TODAY: High pressure off SE Georgia and the Carolinas eventually elongates eastward into the Atlantic to be replaced by ESE-SE flow through late evening, becoming SSW-SW prior to sunrise Wednesday. A potent cold front related complex of three dimensional ferocity will rage across the entire Deep South today into the evening, with possible supercell (rotating) thunderstorms ahead of and imbedded within a Quasi-Linear (as opposed to completely linear) Squall line could be on the menu of this smorgasbord containing severe category wind gusts as well as hail in association with the cold front which will approach Florida tomorrow.

Meanwhile back on the farm, looks like a good day for bailing hay with summer like clouds across the state, with the greatest concentration of clouds near the east coast of South Central and north, eventually to make a showing all interiors by early afternoon. A few sprinkles near the coast from Brevard and north (South of I-4) with a better chance of showers near and north of I-4 to possibly St. Augustine by late day. Although Central is in sufficient moisture for showers or nearly so, much of it is being advected out of the area before showers can form. Central is the Source region for regions further north where better convergence can occur along a line running from Tampa, Ocala, toward Daytona and north. Best convergence should be over the interior late in the day through mid evening in proximity of that green box traced out in the image above.

TONIGHT: Cold front approaches the western Panhandle. Wind overnight becomes SW toward midnight and beyond. Partly cloudy in spots, becoming almost cloudy north. Best chances for fog tonight seem to be interior South Central (South of Orlando) and all of South Florida where winds will be lighter. Coolest temperatures will be away from any clouds which should be South Central, with lows in the lower 60Fs. Warmer further north under the increasing cloud blanket, and further South per common logic.

WEDNESDAY: Main point to observe is that the atmospheric moisture ribbon associated with the front is quite broad. Moisture both precedes and follows the boundary, so clouds could be on the increase from north to south during the late morning and through the afternoon. Winds from the WSW-SW all day, but cloud cover comes with the moisture, so afternoon highs across Central and North Central will unlikely be as warm as they could be otherwise, but South Florida (where the fog will be earlier), has a better bet of the warmest pockets. Highs most areas reach the lower 80Fs south of I-4 ..with some mid-80Fs South Florida before the better cloud cover can move in , which will post-peak heating anyway.

Cloud cover seems a given to various degrees all North and Central, with the morning NAM showing a better chances of at least a sprinkle both before and after frontal passage. For now riding with the GFS, which implies almost solely clouds, with possible sprinkles/a shower along the immediate east coast East of I-95 as far south as Melbourne. The Cold front ETA for the CDL (Central Dividing Line) is within an hour or two of sunset (most likely after)...progressing toward Miami/Dade toward sunrise, Thanksgiving Day.

Winds behind the front shift to WNW, then NW, then N, then NNE within 11-14 hours after passage, which equates to NNE winds by the time the morning grapefruit and AllBran is being served Central, working toward South Florida by late morning toward Noon Time..

THANKS-N-GIVING DAY: NE-ENE winds ALQDS (All quadrants) at 15-22mph during the day, with some gusts in the upper 20s. Looks like a Small craft advisory type of day, with plentiful stratocumulus clouds working in by early-mid afternoon as well once the depth and longevity of these winds persists down and east of the Gulf Stream waters offshore. Showers unlikely, but it could look like there will be rain from time to time as the sun sets.

OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY: Continued winds of similar direction and speeds, with more clouds as well. Overnight lows in mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F+ at the coast, especially South/South Central. The NAM is showing incoming showers Thanksgiving Night through Friday east coast. Certainly, upon inspection of the forecast soundings moisture is good, however limited to a shallow 5000 ft,...which wouldn't justify anything beyond a wind blown sprinkle, especially since there is no convective inhibition...allowing any instability to escape into the wild gray yonder. Time will tell.

BEYOND: Per the header in the post this morning, and as previously pointed toward, another front is on the horizon for late Sunday into Monday, just 4 days later...this front could be the harbinger or foreboding of a trend toward climactic winter. In other words, there's ALMOST no turning back now. The next front will take our overnight lows/daytime highs down a good 8-12 degrees / 5-8 degrees respectively (which is for the first few days of December).

If the latest GFS trend stands fast, there is yet another front following suit 4-5 days later; thus, once again breaking the old "One Front per Week" rule of the past month and a-half. Two fronts in a row, 5 days apart is more 'winter like', not allowing for much recovery in the temperatures between them.

This by now third front being referred to toward the end of the first week of December bears watching....from the active weather prospect.

Thanksgiving Weekend Round One- Showers Today

2011-11-21T08:57:00.001-05:00

IMAGE: Mid Morning surface temperatures are shown. Note the 70F degree isotherm. It is along and south of that line, in general, that the best chance of showers should exist today. The area in light blue is where measurable rainfall totals appears to be possible, but not solely inclusive. However, even those chances look pretty slim, with coverage likely being restricted to a few locations (again, if any) by early afternoon through dusk.

TODAY: Surface high pressure just off/near the coast of Georgia/South Carolina and in the mid-levels almost directly over the state of Florida today is making for weak steering currents with low to mid- topped showers moving from the east to ESE toward the west to WNW. All model guidance this hour is showing for some pretty good rainfall across the Southern Half of the state..or rather..some moderate rainfall in showers with truly measurable amounts without having to bat an eyelash in doubt.

However, that has been the case in the short term models for the past few days with not nearly the coverage depicted..nor where it was expected. Given the trends of morning radar/satellite loops I suspect they are again over-playing today's wet spots so taking the broad brush approach as shown in the above image for favorable coverage areas. Outside of those rain chances, the winds have noticeably dropped off, which sure is nice change.

Net result will be a warmer day along the east coast and likely interior outside of the clouded over areas, with highs in the low 80Fs and possibly some mid-80Fs interior areas South 1/2 of state. Low 80Fs north.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY: Very light wind and rain chances ending as the sun approaches the west horizon with nightfall. Near calm wind tonight with a shallow low level inversion under mostly clear skies should be able to set up for respectable 'fog spots' almost anywhere with good radiational cooling , especially the north half of the state.

Tuesday looks to be a dry one with comfortable temperatures running again close to those of today, but with warmer temps running the across the entire state by afternoon. Light winds not worth mention.

Wednesday again has a chance of early morning fog/mist, especially South. This was noted as a possibility nearly 5 days ago if not more and continues to be the case. Very cool morning for east coasters with a west wind (very light). This will mean "no sea breeze, land breeze instead" and thus no warm ocean water air being pushed ashore. Lows in the lower-mid 60Fs as opposed to the lower 70Fs that were felt along the east coast of Brevard and South this morning. Lower 60Fs seems to be the prevalent mode in the morning (widespread), but warming into the mid-80Fs over a broad expanse as a cold front will be moving across the Panhandle early in the day with some showers/thunder possible there. There is a front on the approach, and temperatures Wednesday morning might actually be cooler AHEAD of the front than behind the front (in the mornings).

THANKSGIVING EVE/THANKSGIVING: Cold front timing of course is always a player this time of year in the wind/rain/temperature fields (i.e., weather). Like the previous front, this one appears to go through mainly dry for Central and maybe even North Central this go around..and mainly overnight with some clouds. Front will be moving across North Central after midnight toward sunrise and should clear the CDL (Central Dividing Line) close to sunrise, followed by NW winds gradually veering to north to NNE by day's end. The boundary could be playing through the South Half of the state most of Thanksgiving Day, with a better chance of showers along a line from Vero Beach - Sarasota and south. Comfortable temperatures even behind the front but becoming breezy toward the east side by mid-late afternoon as a wind surge moves in. Chances are this will be accompanied by cloud cover. All in all, averaged over the years, this looks to be a very "average Thanksgiving" for most of the state other than the south half. Previous Thanksgivings have varied to very very warm to Severe Weather, but mostly are uneventful.

This front looks like it will have very little impact on the temperature fields worth mention. Temperatures return to those experienced the past few days (with today - Wednesday being warmer), with similar wind as well, stronger for a day or two from the NE-ENE-E after frontal passage.

EXTENDED THANKSGIVING WEEKEND: Looks similar to the previous post of a few days ago: Another front will break the "one front a week rule" of the past month or so, with an arrival at the End of Thanksgiving Day weekend or roughly 4 days later. It is possible this low pressure system/front could entrain moisture from the tropical Pacific, with a steadfast surface to mid-level low to develop over the area around North Georgia with time. Timing would place the boundary through late Sunday..and it's not pretty.

As noted previously, this second evil twin front could be an introduction to the formal onset of Florida Winter almost right on cue with December 1 except it would be around the 28th of November. Overnight lows do not look terribly cold; it is the amount of dry air and very cool afternoon highs that will be the bigger impact if all goes according to "Plan".

The front also appears to have a better potential to be a 'wet' one...with possibly preliminary rain/showers impacts as well as opposed to only with the front proper. All in all, experience says that once a pattern is broken this time of year it could be a longer duration break from previous experiences in the same period/time frame. Thus, overnight low and day time highs might never fully recover to those we've had the past week or so. This boundary could also lower the water temperatures along the near shore Atlantic which would mean that the next time we have onshore winds they will be cooler from previous periods of long duration easterlies.

Still too early at this stage of the game to set the extended down in concrete... all could change in a flash. At least we have a head's up, not to be worse for wear.

Dis-solving/De-Volving Frontal Boundary Making for Low Confidence Forecast

2011-11-17T08:40:00.001-05:00

Radar Shortly after sunrise shows band of convection with lightning/thunder involved across North Central/West Central along a pre-frontal trough, with the actual cold front lagging by a good 3-6 hours.

CURRENTLY AT POSTING TIME 845AM EST: Low clouds/ceilings and some fog exist across the peninsula from along the leading edge of the pre-frontal trough (noted by the rain/thunder on radar above) and South, with the densest fog being officially report near West Palm, Winter Haven, and Ft. Myers. Elsewhere, skies vary from cloudy to nearly clear. ..with some sprinkles near the Keys and showers off shore South and South Central along the west edge of the Gulf Stream and/or the western periphery of high pressure pushing offshore the East Coast in the lower portions of the mid-levels.

Yesterday, a record high was recorded at JAX, and a record warm morning low temperature was measured at Melbourne (72F).

TODAY: Low confidence forecast in the rain department today. Based on latest RUC and very early morning GFS/NAM, what is left of the pre-frontal trough will press toward a North Brevard to Sarasota line by noon or shortly there-after. The actual cold front remains several hours behind though. During the course of the later morning to early-mid afternoon expect that some diurnal effects could allow a bit of a 'catch up game' to commence between those two features, although for the most part the boundary denoting the prefrontal trough never really clears much further south than the CDL (Central Dividing Line) tilted toward Sarastoa to Titusville/Sebastian (somewhere in there).

Cloud cover will also be tricky since the rain/thunder forecast (particularly from Central portions) will be at least partially reliant on 'lack thereof clouds' to destabilize the atmosphere. Additionally, during the course of the day Deep Layer Shear (through all portions of the atmosphere) and increasingly weaker lapse rates (temperatures not decreasing as much with height) will add to the uncertainty on how unstable the atmosphere will become through a deep enough layer to generate thunder.

As can be seen on the earliest available visible satellite image, high clouds could impact Central late morning through afternoon. Whether those will erode and/or press off more toward the NE is uncertain, but so far that does not look to be the case.

In this satellite presentation, the band of clouds/rain can be seen across the North Central Peninsula in relation to the cold front. It does not appear that they will be eroding, and could begin to blanket Central Florida as far South as Melbourne by late morning, however, some of what is near East Central in this image is actually only low clouds / fog, which will dissipate by mid-morning.

Time-phasing just exactly 'when the front will be where' becomes more difficult when looking through various levels of the atmosphere. High pressure is also building ENE from the SW Gulf, so the upper level winds could become WNW-NW prior to the surface wind shift related to the front proper.

When all is said and done, and to keep it at a less confusing level for reading purposes, Dead Central will be within the confounds of the frontal boundary at some level or another (surface to 5000 ft) from where the pre-frontal boundary is now located and south toward a Vero-Charlotte (west coast) until late afternoon. South Florida might never see a solid SW wind ahead of the front, but could still see showers and maybe even some thunder either way though.

EARLY MORNING FIRST BEST "WILD GUESS" for rain and thunder chances. Do not expect a broad coverage at any one time, with rains confined to either Central (especially near the east side) and South of Lake Okeechobee after 1pm and beyond. Dashed orange indicates where thunder could occur, but as noted above, at this time of day (9AM) it's as clear as Mississippi Mud just exactly where thunder is most likely to occur.

IN SUMMARY FOR TODAY: I'd anticipate that it will become much more clear where thunder/showers could or will occur by 11AM -1PM once diurnal heating has commenced and the cloud pattern trend becomes apparent. Latest RUC/NAM and the GFS (which has been consistent) that there will be a frontal 'hang-up of sorts" during the diurnal cycle along a tilted CDL as noted previously (above). Showers/thunder could occur here near that line from just after noon time toward 4pm concurrent with other showers further south of Lake Okeechobee (mostly over the Everglades)..SW of Lake Okeechobee. Chances are, that once the sun gets within about 30 degrees of the horizon there will be a rapid transition with the frontal boundary re-emerging on paper over Southern Dade county (around 7pm)..after which point it progresses toward Central Cuba by Friday afternoon.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT: Rain chances end for those locations currently receiving rain now by late morning, with the better chance toward Southern Volusia to Southern Tampa Bay and south across the Space Coast / Orlando. (as noted)...as well as South Florida mainly near the East Coast and SW of Lake Okeechobee from 1pm and beyond.

Winds today will be mostly SW and become nearly west behind the decaying prefrontal trough. Frontal passage will be non-eventful with a wind shift to WNW eventually NW and then North, working down the coast from Central to South Florida between 6pm to mid-evening, and increase in speed as winds become Northerly and eventually NNE-NE overnight to early morning in the 20-30mph range, especially near the coast.

TEMPERATURES: As of this morning, temperatures behind the front are in the mid-upper 50Fs in the western Panhandle, and even still in the 60Fs behind the front after immediate passage. 70Fs remain toward JAX and South. Post frontal temperatures late tonight through Friday will resolve with lows mainly in the low-mid 60Fs from Ormond and South, and rising toward the mid-upper 60Fs Space Coast and low 70Fs Treasure Coast and south. Afternoon highs ranging from the 60Fs NE Florida toward 70F mid-lower Space Coast and above Treasure and south. Ongoing NE-ENE winds of 12-25mph off the ocean (the quick recovery in onshore winds) will preclude significant low level atmospheric drying, so this day could also be accompanied by scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds and rain showers/sprinkles (mainly South Central/South Florida) providing for further reason to temper down afternoon highs as well as preventing overnight lows Friday night from falling little if at all South of DAB after sunset Friday night.

WEEKEND: GFS continues with the trend of high pressure rolling quickly from Western Kansas eastward to Arkansas/Tennessee and off the Carolinas by Later Saturday. Winds become Easterly and gradually decrease on Saturday afternnon . Eventually, winds above the deck become almost ESE and rotate a portion of the mid-level front back north toward South Central. Rain showers and continued cloud cover at times during this transition (especially Sunday) could result in sprinkles and measurable but small amounts over South Florida and Coastal South Central, with lesser amounts to barely a trace north to JAX...although sprinkles could occur toward JAX as early as Later Friday as well.

MONDAY: By Monday it all becomes a moot point as winds decrease and high pressure in the mid levels builds directly over the state ahead of the next large upper level trough over the Western US. Still though, there could be some annoying Stratocu almost anywhere through Monday/Tuesday, with a re-emergence of the early morning/overnight low cloud/fog issue in extended forecasts under the high pressure since low level moisture remains, especially Tuesday/Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING: As noted in previous posts, we've been essentially on a "one front per week" schedule/cycle over the past month, and the next front enters the picture unfalteringly (unfaultering?) so per guidelines. This has been on the platter for several model runs, but just exactly what transformation /weather conditions this front will entail is only slowly coming to light. The trend has been, or appears to be heading toward, a cloudy and possibly more wet Thanksgiving and into the weekend..with comfortable temperatures: aka - the round the clock 70Fs, with some lower 80Fs scattered asunder.

However, on the other hand, the GFS is screaming "PATTERN CHANGE" as well. This will be a change in the hemispheric (northern) realm more than likely, with the next front forecast to come in quickly only 4 days later as opposed to 7. This will be very close to the last day of the month, eerily on the cusp of calendar/meteorological winter, December 1. Could be a big drying trend in the future with another overall lowering in morning lows and afternoon highs the majority of the time, or rather, toward norms. In short, winter could be knocking on our chamber doors...Get Back, Jack!...(need we say, frost?).

Near Record High Temperatures, Small Shower Chance Late Day/Evening

2011-11-16T09:26:00.001-05:00

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS features surface to mid-level ridge across South Central which will drop only slightly south during the day. Satellite image at sunrise reveals areas of either very low ceilings or fog. Deepest moisture resides over the East Central Gulf and along a cold front approaching the Panhandle later tonight (where some thunder could occur).

RECAP: Showers formed yesterday in the proscribed zone in the prior two day's of posts from Southern Polk County and across most all of Central Osceola County toward dark, eventually dying off toward 10pm as they reached the Titusville area. There has again been some fog reports, but not with the greater coverage of Monday morning. Lower clouds seemed to be the more prevalent mode, as temperatures in many areas statewide were mostly in the low-upper 70Fs, warmest along the SE Coast near the warmer Gulf Stream waters from West Palm and South where winds remained off the Atlantic overnight.

TODAY: Not all the much different from yesterday, but there are some minor changes, mostly in the strengthening S-SSW-SW gradient low level wind flow north of the ridge axis shown above as the frontal boundary and supporting mid-level trough approaches from the Deep South region, positively tilted toward the Ohio Valley. This can best be seen at the 2000 ft level, as forcing and wind fields at the surface are weak and less discernible for presentation purposes.

Latest RUC roughly shows the front to be located at 2000 ft. above ground as shown, with ridging across South and South Central Florida along the high pressure ridge axis emanating from east of Bermuda. Both of those ridges will drop generally another 50 miles south during the day, and place Central Florida from generally 20 miles south of the CDL (Central Diving Line) and north in stronger SW-WSW flow from 2000 ft and up by mid-late afternoon. Recall from the first image, deeper (but not tremendous) moisture is over the East Central Gulf. This moisture will circulate east and north during the day into those locations along and north of the ridge axis, or roughly from Melbourne Beach to Tampa Bay and north by sunset. Dry air is being advected into South Florida north of Cuba.

TODAY: Frontal boundary to enter the Panhandle by tonight. Winds today over North Central and North Florida from SW-WSW becoming more southerly toward South Central and SE South Florida.

The RUC model indicates the best moisture will rotate in later this afternoon toward Brooksville and exit the east side of the state very close to a track following along I-4, where showers could occur.

On the other hand, the latest NAM is depicting a scenario similar to what occurred late yesterday/last night, only about 20 miles further south and east. This would place the area of Central Osceola County again in the better rain chance as well as the area very close to 528/Port Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/as far south as Melbourne Beach for a rain chance between 6pm -10pm as opposed to the more northern area of interest of the RUC. Either one is game, but at this time resting on the NAM which has not been the favored model for quite some time (since summer). However, it seems to have been doing fairly well during the first 18 hour time frame and always one or two steps ahead of the RUC, and did well yesterday.

These showers could actually emanate/result from a weak Lake Okeechobee Shadow affect (there was one visible yesterday), which would provide the moisture convergence necessary to result in some lower topped showers. I saw one lightning strike on Lightning Tracker last night toward Southern Polk County, but for now will leave it out (which could change) for today. CAPE (instability) appears that it will be even stronger today, but lapse rates on the other hand look weaker which will 'negate CAPE'. See first image above for those areas highlighted in lime green.

TEMPERATURES: Otherwise, outside of the rain chance it could be pleasantly warm today under partly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid-80Fs interior South and Central Florida. With clouds starting the day in many locations, some records could be toyed with toward the west side of Lake Okeechobee running along a diagonal toward Interior Volusia under to condition that there is good spatial separation in the clouds during the peak sun angle hours. The coolest areas today will be downwind of any water body which would mean the areas east of US1, to the north and northeast of larger inland lakes, and along the north shores of Lake Okeechobee.

TONIGHT: Frontal boundary will be working across the Panhandle. Best chance for some repeat fog conditions appears to be further south tonight, essentially almost anywhere near and south of Lake Okeechobee. Surface winds and especially just above the ground tonight should be too strong for fog north of The Lake as the frontal boundary approaches and the pressure gradient between that feature and high pressure over South Florida remains firmly in place over that region, resulting in much lighter winds at all levels over South Florida.

THURSDAY: Front will be working from NNW-SSE during the day. Latest guidance generally agrees that the front will work past Gainesville toward I-4 between 11AM -1pm, and will be accompanied by a good 6 hour window of most cloudy/cloudy skies and perhaps some sprinkles. Instability will be able to build further south of the I-4 during the afternoon further from the cloud cover, with winds from the SW-WSW resulting in highs in the lower to maybe mid-80Fs depending on how soon the leading edge of cloud cover moves in. Although there is a chance of less than measurable rain along the front, the better chance for measurable rain will be toward the East Side of the state South of I-4 to north of Sebastian Inlet from 2-8pm. Frontal passage across the CDL (Central Dividing Line) should be close to 6-7pm time frame. The front then washes out at the surface south of the Beachline Zone and continues south at the 925mb level (around 2000 ft above ground) through South Florida, finally becoming fully absorbed at all levels near Dade County. Rain showers continue mainly down the east coast on and behind the boundary with a continued chance all day Friday, mainly Southern Portions of Palm Beach County , Broward, and Northern Dade. High pressure will quickly work east behind the front tomorrow through Friday from western Kansas through Arkansas and finally the Carolinas on Saturday. Pressure gradient wind behind the front as this high pressure rapidly builds east increases over the Atlantic and works in along the Florida east coast overnight Thursday night/early Friday and works down the coast Friday afternoon into Saturday. NE-ENE winds initially in the 20-30mph range will decrease most locations by mid-day Friday but remain in the 15-28mph (esp. South Florida) all day Friday, gradually weakening on Saturday.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT : Not a big cold down, with the most notable temperature impacts interior North Central toward Ocala and North, with other areas feeling lower 60Fs interior to near 65F Coastal East Central from the Port and South for morning coffee. South Florida will not feel much of a change at all. The bigger impact is to the afternoon high temperatures which have been running well above climatology the past few days, which will return to near or just below normal, but remain comfortable enough to preclude breaking out winter wear, or for the most part, even fall wear.

BEYOND: GFS continues to imply that as the flow becomes more easterly to ESE just above the deck that some remnant energy from the front will circulate back north toward East Central late Saturday or early Sunday with rain showers resulting, mainly low topped sprinkles with accumulations possible. It is also consistent, however, with ending any rain chance by day break Monday...from which point on, the weather appears will be quite bland with no impacts other than a return to inland fog or low clouds by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as winds weaken.

THANKSGIVING: Outlooks for Thanksgiving a Bleak Friday will be included commencing Thursday.

Chance of Showers and Possible Thunder Mid-Afternoon Toward Sunset

2011-11-15T09:43:00.001-05:00

Pre-Sunrise Radar image showers some light to moderate showers working from south to north along the east coast. The area outlined in white toward the east side is a very general depicture of those areas which received measurable rainfall from late yesterday through early today. The red "x" is the center of what appeared to be a weak vort max or nearly a microscale convective vortex which was apparent when radar was animated. This area moved north and into the low level ridge axis at which point the more appreciable rainfall abated.

RECAP: Overall, not much change from yesterday's reasoning. Fog was reported in many areas across interior South Central to west central and over much of North Florida this morning. Rainshowers worked up the coast from as far south as Southern Palm Beach County early last evening but also occurred concurrently toward East Brevard and Indian River. Overnight, what appeared to be a weak low level vort max evolving from the activity over Palm Beach County organized as it worked up the coast, especially after 4AM across Eastern Brevard County but spreading the wealth into Osceola and Orange Counties as well. Heaviest rainfall reported per CoCoRAHS volunteers was from Eastern Indian River County to Cape Canaveral (where the highest total of .57" was reported, albeit this report was a little conservative and could have been a bit higher). It appears from my perspective only from what I've read that this rain was 'convectively' driven but resided a bit elevated (not solely surface based) above a shallow inversion around 500-800 ft), and was limited in vertical extent due to drier air aloft in the absence of greater instability and/or external forces or boundaries. Fog quickly formed in some locations toward Ft Pierce "post rains", with the now fully saturated low level atmosphere and ground from earlier rains still present under neath the shallow inversion as the vort max lifted north (and likely, some subsidence behind it as well). By the time the area of showers lifted north the sun was up and daytime, diurnal mechanisms were already in play precluding fog over most of Brevard. DAB also had some fog well north of the approaching vort max and under the low level inversion. ..in all cases, the inversion was very shallow and not impressively strong.

TODAY: Per model guidance sounding forecasts, the low level inversion present at the time of this writing should be breaking up between 10:45AM - 12:15PM. Partly cloudy skies as cloud types transform to a mix of stratocu and cumulus with sufficient breaks , especially across South Florida for highs to reach the lower/mid 80Fs in a few locations. Expecting more clouds Central and North to refrain above the lower 80Fs to near 80F at the coast south of Cape Canaveral where a slight on-shore or side-shore wind closer to the water will tone highs down a few unsubstantial degrees. Current LDIS plots, latest RUC, and morning NAM indicate present and future convective instability to be in place by 2pm this after from just north of I-4 to all of South Florida. Surface and low level ridge will be located across South Central with the mid-level ridge not far from the same position. The only differences with the runs is 1) RUC has mostly early shower activity in the area shown (below), which would preclude any thunder. On the other hand 2) NAM/GFS are holding off on any rain until after 2:30pm (at least) if not later, which at this point I'm more likely to favor. In other words, the RUC which showed nothing earlier might be jumping the gun. With that said, better heating over South Florida to transport instability northward toward I-4. With forecast CAPE of near 1700 j2/kg2 (RUC) and now near or above 2000 j2/kg2 (NAM) , see no reason not to include the chance of thunderstorms in the post, especially from near or just east of MCO and along I-4 to DAB southward toward Vero Beach and eastern Osceola Counties. There is a smaller chance near West Palm, but believe any earlier activity in this area as depicted by the latest RUC will be showers.

Lastly, all forecast plots show the inversion in the lowest few thousand or even hundreds of feet to break, with none present by late afternoon. This should allow ample sunshine and the west coast sea breeze to work inland and modify while traversing the heated , and dry grounds now in place on the west side of the state.

In closing for today, The Storm Prediction Center nor any official offices are discussing thunder today, and barely even showers, at least not as of the time of this post...so perhaps all of the above should be taken with a large grain of salt and dash of pepper over the left shoulder. Models have been very consistent with showing showers today though, and with higher CAPE now forecast than previous day, I'm willing to roll the dice and take the leap to thunder. Main con will be lack of low level forcing and no truly discernible trigger . But again, sufficient low to mid-level vertical (upward) motions are shown, especially toward Southern Volusia and all of Brevard.

TONIGHT: Showers to end by mid-late evening if not sooner. Low clouds again possible with mild temperatures much like last night.

WEDNESDAY: Stacked ridge axis across South Central in the absence of apparent triggers should yield rainfree skies, cloudy to partly cloudy by afternoon with highs in the lower 80Fs, and some mid-80Fs where the best cloud breaks occur.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Frontal boundary to work down the state, and reach dead central shortly after nightfall. Showers and maybe some thunder to accompany the boundary, reaching the CDL toward late day. Best chances of rain extends as far south as Sebastian to Vero. Frontal passage accompanied by a quick wind shift over the course of 4-8hrs to the NE and eventually ENE Friday. The boundary could work as far south as West Palm ...underdeath the mid-level ridge which will remain locked in place. Any rains from Friday morning through Saturday will be post-frontal under speed convergence and some instability behind (north) of the boundary.

SATURDAY: Latest GFS is falling back in line with many of its previous runs with a good chance of showers working back north late Friday through Saturday. The prime culprit appears to be a vort max and associated moisture evolving NE of the Bahamas that rotates around the western periphery of the midlevel high pressure over South Florida. This area is forecast to move into East Central and finally taper and wane toward NW Florida Saturday night. Thus, rain chances seem to be a good bet from Ft. Pierce and north from Friday mid-day and working toward St. Augustine and inland during the day Saturday into early Sunday.

Slight Chance of Coastal Showers Tonight, Possible Showers/Thunder Tuesday

2011-11-14T16:18:00.001-05:00

Red areas show Moisture working north and up the state from South Florida, moisture being drawn north from the Gulf ahead of a frontal boundary, and lastly moisture converging ahead of the frontal boundary itself across the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley over night tonight.

LATE TODAY/NIGHT: High pressure ridge axis at the low levels extends across North Central Florida and will drop slowly south and off shore through Tuesday as a frontal boundary approaches the state very slowly through early Thursday. In the short term (late today and through tonight), moisture is being pulled northward around the western periphery of this low level high pressure center located near Bermuda, while warm air aloft is also being drawn north and up the state around a mid level ridge located close to the low level ridge. Moisture with a lifting cap aloft overnight could promote low topped ocean showers near the Treasure and Space Coast under the gentle over-running or roughly north of Ft Pierce to Port Canaveral at almost anytime between 5pm and 8AM Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a very shallow subsidence inversion should take shape fairly quickly with the setting sun further from the coast and warm ocean waters. During the late evening, expecting low ceilings of stratus clouds to form, with a few areas of patchy dense fog well inland and away from heavily populated areas where low level cooling will be greatest especially toward West Central and north toward the western Subs of Orlando, Ocala, Gainesville, and much of interior North Florida/Panhandle. There could be some low stratus or thin fog as well almost anywhere prior to midnight, but believe the prevalent mode closer to the east coast and especially SE Florida will be broken to overcast sky conditions of stratus clouds. Net result, warm overnight lows in the low 70Fs with dewpoints already approaching that level this afternoon as can be seen below:

Pink areas indicate 70F + dewpoints as of now (while typing). The temperature tonight will not fall below those levels....and will unlikely make it north of the aforementioned low level ridge axis which will drop to central Florida, or roughly the Central Diving Line (CDL) from Port Canaveral to Tampa Bay area. Showers most likely from the Port toward Ft. Pierce tonight, with the most dense of fog in the areas of Green and Yellow shown above where surface temperatures will cool the most under warm air over-running.

TUESDAY: Clouds will be slow to break initially, and hoping to be see plentiful sun by 11-noon. Winds generally SE-SSE at 10-15mph, with highs inland in the lower - mid 80Fs and closer to those of today along the immediate coast (near 80-82F) prior to development of additional clouds. Inland highs are tricky, and suspect that mid-80Fs might be optimistic for the warm air lover, since heating could simply lift and break the stratus deck and transition it to plentiful cumulus clouds, with only a brief period (less than one hour) of full sun is that's possible.

With the lower sun angle given the time of year (the longest days are only a little more than a month away)...lower 80Fs seems more likely. SSE-S winds along the east coast combined with a weak west coast sea breeze could result in a sea breeze convergence well away from the coasts toward 4pm, but some showers could form along the west coast sea breeze mainly toward the northwest side of Lake Okeechobee initially. Additional showers and possibly a very thunderstorms as well to run from SE Polk county, through Western or Central Orange County, and north toward the I-4 including ONF (Ocala National Forest) and Gainesville. The GFS implies the deepest showers of convective nature will exist along and north of I-4 after 6pm, with some activity moving offshore from near St. Augustine south toward Daytona. However, that will be contingent upon how parallel to the coast the surface winds are at this time. Any stronger on shore wind component north of Port Canaveral will kill convection given that ocean temperatures off shore are running in the mid-60Fs there. If winds maintain a South to SSW component or attain one toward sunset, showers or thunder could work off the east coast given that the low and mid level ridge axis' will by now be located near the Southern Shore of Lake Okeechobee.

WEDNESDAY: Morning fog or stratus is possible once again, but most likely stratus clouds as surface winds could be stronger ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Timing has been slowing down from run to run (and from time to time), and if it slows down even 6 hours more, fog will again be possible and be more widespread than tonight (overnight on Tuesday). Although winds on Wednesday will be S to SSW to possibly SW later in the day, record highs might be tough to attain due to expected cloud coverage, If so, the most likely areas will be near NE Florida along and north of I-4 north of Sanford toward St Augustine. Continued SSE -SE winds over South Florida will preclude record highs in this area, although the region inland of Ft Myers/Naples might come close as well.

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary now expected per model agreement to reach Dead Central toward the MDL (Magic Dividing Line) ever so appropriately but admittedly very' unprofessionally' labelled by the writer this go around, as it appears it will be within that zone the front will not be able to penetrate much further south. Showers and thunder will be possible along and ahead of the front is it drops from North to North Central from late morning through Sunset, and eventually running into the low level ridge axis remaining across far South Florida's 'saving grace ridge' toward Southern Dade and stacked to 10,000 ft. A frontal passage across north Florida will become near Neutral toward 30 miles either side of the MDL. With that said, best chances of showers and just maybe some thunder as far south as the Eau Gallie Cauesway, but watching to see if this chance won't extend as far south as Route 60 (Vero Beach). A few coastal showers SE Florida but it appears this go-around, most of the state south and near Lake Okeechobee will see very little rainfall from this front, namely because precipitation with it comes along moisture convergence with the boundary, of which there will be none in this area. It is also possible there will be some near record warm overnight lows on Thursday morning...(mid-70Fs), South Central.

FRIDAY: High pressure in the low to mid-levels rapidly builds eastward across the Deep South and becomes centered toward the Eastern Carolinas by Friday morning. A wind surge is being depicted to impact those areas only that are behind the locked and decaying frontal boundary, or from Sebastian Inlet and north, if not only the Melbourne beach area and north. Winds of 18-28mph possible through mid-afternoon. A few showers are possible as well anytime on Friday mostly near where the boundary dissipates (East Central/Space Coast).

SATURDAY: Continued shower chances in the same areas and possibly spreading back toward NE Florida, or roughly anywhere north of a line running from Ft. Pierce to Sarasota, most likely east side. Shower chances should wane by sunset Saturday night, with only some possible sprinkles remaining for Sunday, although this might be optimistic. Cloud coverage might remain an issue over the weekend though either way.

Near Stellar Weekend With Moderating Conditions Through MidWeek

2011-11-12T07:07:00.001-05:00

Graphic Depiction of Temperatures one hour before sunrise. Ideal radiational cooling upon North Florida under a calm wind and clear sky set the stage for an ASTOUNDING record low temperature in Tallahassee of 23F, with numerous mid- upper 20F in locations such as Crestview, Monticello, Cross City, and Marianna. The 23F surpasses the previous record by 4F and was very hard pressed to be matched nationwide even at International Falls, Minnesota. It was colder there than in most locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada to boot, as well as the Grand Canyon, nearly all stations in Maine, and Aspen, Colorado. The only location for the most part that out-shined was Mount Washington at 10F with winds gusting to 75 mph , blowing snow, and a wind chill of 19 below zero! Thanks for blowing it this way Washington. (although, temperatures around where most folks living in TLH were likely much warmer, as this record low was recorded in low/flat/grassy terrain at the airport).

TODAY/SUNDAY: No change in the forecast reasoning of Thursday's post . As expected, lows in the mid-upper 20Fs occurred across North Florida. The very cool to cold air made it as far south as Ocala (34F),Crystal River (34F), and Inverness (39F) whereas the warmest overnight lows occurred from Canaveral and South along the immediate east coast east of A1A to MIA / US1 to Key West which was around 70F. Winds toward Ft. Lauderdale were already switching to NE and up went the temperature to water temperatures or nearly so as well as Virginia Key (near Key Biscayne) with a pair of 71Fs.

Slow warming through mid-morning inland (but the lows in the 20F will rise into the 40Fs by the time some folks are heading to church), with a quick rebound in temperatures expected interior by 11AM with all locations reaching the low to mid 70Fs as light ENE develops with daytime heating. Skies could be partly cloudy with 'dollar pancake stratocumulus' clouds in passing but little more. Exactly how rich the sky will get with these clouds could be in question. Might see some nearly mostly cloudy skies for a time toward sunset. Neither here nor there though.

TONIGHT: Temperatures near the coast should be a few degrees warmer as well as those along and east of I-95, but interior and west will likely be similar to this morning within 4 degrees of 50F either side.

Winds near calm or light with partly cloudy skies from time to time. There could be some shallow fog by Sunday morning as moisture levels slowly increase from the current level PWAT air of only 0.4 to 0.7 inches under an evening inversion which will quickly disperse with the rising sun contingent upon cloud coverage.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: High pressure responsible for the cold morning which is now centered over South Central Georgia will progress ENE well out in to the Atlantic through the mid-levels. Winds start to become ESE to eventually SE by later Tuesday with the ridge axis across Central Florida and eventually South Central, whereas south Florida remains mostly easterly. Daytime highs near the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover during peak heating (between 11:30AM - 1:30PM). Possibly another morning of fog ' slim chances' Monday but not on Tuesday.

***Side Note: Ocean temperatures are now running in the mid 60Fs north of the Cape and in the lower 70Fs south of the Cape toward Miami, so onshore winds won't be quite the ticket for truly 'warm' afternoons much longer but will buy us warmer overnight lows than inland counterparts. Eventually, and might as well say it now, these water temperatures will become a big player in afternoon highs along the east coast north of MLB before year's end and the first few months of 2012.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: By Wednesday the first of two frontal boundaries being transported by 140kt jet stream winds heading across the NE Ohio Valley will already be over the Panhandle. Much warmer on Tuesday most places, but Wednesday seems to be primarily the best day for temperatures most locations to record something in the lower-mid 80Fs, but again, near parallel winds to the coast could hold A1A readings from MIA to the Cape teasing closer to 80F.

Winds more SW toward I-4 should allow the readings to get into the lower-mid 80Fs as well. After a slight chance of showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly North Florida on Tuesday, precipitable water values will have more than tripled from today reaching almost 1.75". The first boundary could make it toward I-4 on Wednesday with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two between I-4 and south to north of Lake Okeechobee, or rather, along and south of wherever the boundary eventually ends up.

The second boundary mostly notable by a mid -level trough screaming by well to the north along those strong jet stream winds will progress the initial surface front south toward South Central/South Florida on Thursday, with another chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms right along the CDL (Central/Magic Diving Line) across the state, with some showers and maybe thunder South Florida. Already though, by now the front is washing out and becoming absorbed in the humongous but 'ovately flat' area of high pressure which will be re-enforced by passage of the front, extending half way to Europe across the Central Atlantic ENE of Florida.

Deep easterly fetch of over 1000 miles, but not very strong results in remaining elevated atmospheric moisture content (at least 1.3") for quite some time to come. This means overnight lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and probably highs in the mid 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover, which could be quite ample at times.

Showers will be possible or more likely sprinkles Thursday through Sunday morning. The next front will be approaching in the generic "7 Day" Time Frame, or perhaps a day or two sooner. Whenever that might be..the easterly flow will be disrupted and end the shower chance, but clouds could continue with more "Room Temperature" days and "Ceiling Fan nights".

**For kicks, watching the Tropics .... Temperatures in the Caribbean are running in the 80Fs round the clock. Last nights GFS showed a Cat 2 Hurricane coming out of the Gulf from where Rina formed last month..taking a solid tropical storm toward the Big Bend by the 27Th. The following run completely dismisses such fugue state of affairs, but it is worth looking for. Plenty of time and Thanksgiving as well before this early Christmas Gift can be delivered. Chances are more probable this figment will be nothing more than a lump of coal as opposed to a shiny Corvette named Tammy. Central and North Florida experienced a Hurricane/Tropical storm around this same time frame (November 23rd) in 19988 named Keith.

Cold Front Tonight as Sean Peaks in Strength

2011-11-10T08:22:00.001-05:00

Morning Visible Satellite Image Shows Cold Front Across The Panhandle and stretching NNE to a large low near James Bay. Tropical Storm Sean as shown relative to Bermuda and generally forecast direction of motion.

RECAP: Cold front cleared the western Panhandle this morning and is nearing Tallahassee. Drainage flow everywhere last night with temperatures ranging through all of the 50Fs to mid-60Fs, warmest SE Florida coastal and Keys, and within 1 block of the beach from Canaveral and south.

By an odd twist of fate JAX was colder prior to sunrise than Pensacola behind the front at 45F with a calm wind, albeit Pensacola was one degree warmer at 46F but with winds from the north at 20 gusting to 33mph making for a wind chill of 37F under cloudy skies.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Sean has been on a NNE track and is forecast to miss Bermuda to the west. There was a big flare up of convection around 6AM (Bermuda Time) but that has since waned. Sean is now over cooler ocean waters in the mid-lower 70Fs with no Heat Content. Ocean Buoys in this area are scarce, and none of those closer to the storm were showing sustained tropical storm force winds but one. Sean is officially forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, but not so sure about that due to increasing shear and no ocean heat content. A plane is flying into the area as I write, and they might be able to whip up a (convoluted to some degree) ' technically a hurricane' status, but it will likely be very brief if ever and never be measured on the surface from what I can tell.

Sean will start to become absorbed tonight and more so by mid-day Friday by a much larger trough of low pressure now located near James Bay. High Pressure to the N through NE of Sean could push abundant moisture NW ward in strong SE Flow ahead of the cold front away from Sean. Pressure gradient winds along the coast of Nova Scotia to Greenland could generate surface winds stronger in those locations than what will be experienced in Bermuda . The latest GFS has Sean nearly gone around the same time the NHC has Sean a Hurricane...so time will tell. Either way, no impacts to land other than indirectly due to high seas and pressure gradient winds between the cold front/Sean/and High Pressure.

Latest Analysis. The yellow area shows the surface low SE of James Bay and then Sean. The broad area indicates how these two features will eventually wed off the coast of New England with very dynamic results upon NE Coastal Maine and through Nova Scotia. Other rains along the coast of New England will be related to the front combined with some of the moisture from Sean as the umbilical cord is made with the Mother Low near James Bay. In a sense, Sean will cocoon from the state of which it originated, a mere non-tropical or even subtropical entity.

OTHERWISE: Cold front approaching Central and South Florida today. Winds today will be NW with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs, mainly South of I-4. Increasing cloud cover precedes the front, and this cloud cover could reach a portion of the region north or near I-4 during peak heating. Otherwise, nothing to speak of other than some light sprinkles possible along and just behind the immediate frontal boundary.

I conjured up a first grab stab time phased image of the cold frontal position from its current position through the time it will be clearing the state by early Friday. Positions for Central might be delayed an hour or so if the front slows down during the afternoon during heating of the day, but either way...it goes through well after dark:

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY: The cold frontal passage tonight will be easily diagnosed by a surge of NNW winds of 20mph possibly gusting toward 30mph for about a 6 hour window of time from North Florida through most of South Central during which time the temperature will drop 10-15F degrees.. This surge never reaches South Florida to such extent but the cooler air does. Skies could be partly to mostly cloudy all areas for a few hours prior to and after passage.

Morning lows Friday should range from the mid-upper 50Fs east coast from Canaveral South (warmer toward the lower 60Fs coastal SE Florida), decreasing west of the Intracoastals and down into the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west as far south as Lake Okeechobee. Friday will be the ODD (one day deal) for the east coast from Canaveral and South as far as the coldest temperatures are concerned. Winds relax late morning, but will likely pick up again with daytime heating under clear skies, and with mixing during peak heating range in the 15-23mph range across the state as winds slowly veering toward due north by Sunset.

Big downfall to all of this. Very cool afternoon Friday, with highs barely getting above 60F toward Ocala and north, and just eking out a low 60F near DAB with breezy N-NNE winds around 18-23mph with mixing during peak heating. The main period of cold air advection will occur coincident with peak heating on Friday well behind the front, which will be a saving grace from what could otherwise be a very cold morning had timing been different. The NAM is showing a near classic JAX Cold Wedge working into the north side of the Cape approaching the Port, but thinking for now it's too early in the season for those shenanigans, so discarding...highs other areas all of Central (except Tampa Bay) in the mid-upper 60Fs nearing lowers 70Fs coastal South Florida/Keys.

SATURDAY: High pressure will be building across the Deep South and northern Gulf and be center near Southern GA Saturday Morning. Very light winds and drainage flow could send temperatures near I-10 in select areas like Crestview, Marianna, and Tallahassee into the mid-upper 20Fs with widespread 30Fs (frost looks possible as well in these areas). Elsewhere, winds along the east coast of Florida will start to become more NE (and light) overnight, so that overnight lows from the Cape and South might occur well before midnight, level off, and possible rise a few degrees before sunrise into the low 60Fs ...mainly within only a few blocks of the ocean. Otherwise, with sunrise ENE winds develop as the high pressure center continues to build NE ward into the Western Atlantic. By day's end a broad and stacked elongated oval of high pressure will extend well out into the NW Atlantic (close to where Sean demises) SW ward into the SW Gulf of Mexico. The cold event is all but over already for the South half of the state after sunrise Saturday.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Mildly cool overnight coastal lows but no big deal, cooler inland with possible patchy inland fog. Winds become more east to eventually ESE-SE on Monday as high pressure continues to work offshore in stacked fashion.. It appears some vorticity (energy) from the old frontal boundary by now south of Cuba might get recirculated along the back/western extent of the surface to 850mb high (now well out at sea) late Sunday through early Tuesday. In doing do, showers could work up the east coast from the Keys and far Southeast Florida Sunday night through Monday, reaching dead central toward Indian River/Brevard/Southern Volusia from mid-morning through sunset after clearing South Florida.

Very warm Tuesday/Wednesday. Looks like the East Coast from Ft. Pierce and North will see the warmest days it has experienced in quite a while as winds will no longer be predominantly onshore and across the cooling ocean waters. Thought those easterlies would never end.

Another potentially potent Southern Plains to Ohio Valley frontal boundary which might result in a Quasi Linear Convective System type Squall Line from Eastern Oklahoma/NE Texas into Louisiana and through the Ozarks toward Ohio (as well as Indiana and Illinois) will be on the approach by Wednesday.

Latest GFS indicates there might be a prefrontal trough ahead of the boundary which might result in some showers ...and who knows..maybe even a thundershower or two..across Dead Central moving offshore the east coast Wednesday afternoon and evening.

This approaching front never clears Florida as thought (at least so far) but becomes absorbed in the ridge of High pressure which, as it might be, will dominate the states weather into at least early Thanksgiving. The GFS is up and down on rainshowers moving onshore beyond Wednesday with the next washing out front. For some reason, it has backed off on them as of the 2AM model run, which is a new twist. I'm hedging more on showers though given the wind fields it shows.

Tropical Storm Sean To Lift North Tomorrow /Cold Front Thursday Night

2011-11-09T08:17:00.003-05:00

SEAN positioned over 800NM East of Ft Pierce/West Palm this morning. This image shows Ocean Heat content (which is closely correlated to the SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) this morning. Note that any further northward motion will quickly take Sean into ocean waters too cool to support Tropical Storm status (black coloring), although winds will remain at Storm Strength well after it clips Bermuda. The brighter colors in orange denote dry air. Note that Florida is in the dry air in the mid-upper levels to well off shore, indicating that shower activity over the state is not related to Sean.

***REMINDER: Nation wide test of the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) today at 2:00pm EST. ****

NOW: At 7AM all areas are experiencing drainage flow with some small areas of low patchy fog and a very saturated low level atmospheric moisture profile which quickly dries out 500 ft above the ground, more so above 5-6000ft. Temperatures are in the low-to mid 60Fs with a few upper 50Fs everywhere other than direct beach side from Port Canaveral to Key Biscayne and the middle and lower Keys where temperatures are clinging for dear life on 70-72F. A few low topped showers linger just offshore the Cape with other showers working into far SE Florida.

TODAY: Sean will meander in place today and eventually begin to lift northward tonight. High pressure builds NE ward from the SW Gulf as the high pressure wedge down the Eastern Applachians that had been creating the pressure gradient retreats NE ward as well ahead of an approaching cold front and that front's supporting upper level trough.

Winds today to become more NNE at 10-20mph with strongest inconsequential winds down the Barrier Islands/Intracoastals along the entire east coast, with a period of such winds in the mid-afternoon inland as mixing works out the low level inversion that is trapping the moisture close to the ground this morning. Low topped showers, mainly sprinkles but the dominant mode will be decks of flat topped stratocu mainly over the Southern Half of the state, with more dense clouds of various altitudes across North Florida ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Temperatures like the past two days, with highs at the beaches in the mid-upper 70Fs with some very low 80Fs interior/west/and south Florida. All in all, highs will be dependent on cloud coverage (where it will be located) during peak sun angle hours.

TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY: Winds become light NW well after dark and shower chances end with cooling temperatures everywhere. There could be some lower ground fog almost anywhere by morning with dewpoints remaining steady state close to the ambient air temperature, with lows in mid-50Fs everywhere except near any body of water where lows will be in the low-mid 60Fs.

Morning enhanced infrared satellite image shows Sean well to the east of Florida and a projected track for starters. Surface front in light blue and the high pressure building into the Gulf and down the Appalachians. Sprinkles possible, mainly the South Half of State, with patches of stratocu resulting in sky conditions varying from sunny to mostly cloudy for brief periods in a few select TBD locales. Meanwhile, Alaska is dealing with a No-Named Hurricane Equivalent Storm of its own, one perhaps of intensity this time of year never equaled except maybe once in recorded history.

THURSDAY: NW Winds of 10-15mph during the afternoon with highs near 80F to lower 80Fs, but cloud cover will be a key factor in this variable, especially across Dead Central where it might end up being in the lower to mid 70Fs. Front appears will go through Panhandle dry. As high pressure in the Gulf continues NE ward (and pushes Sean further north and east), pressure gradient winds behind the front will already be in place over the Western Gulf. Moisture convergence during a brief window of opportunity behind the departing high and ahead of the front could result in some sprinkles or showers 30 miles either side of the Magic Dividing Line (MDL) running from Tampa Bay to Port Canaveral from early afternoon to sunset 'ahead of' and 'as' the front passes through.

THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY: Cold front then to cross from NNW-SSE down the peninsula, crossing the MDL around 10:30pm. Front to be followed by PERHAPS gusty winds right along both the West and East Coasts from JAX - Ft. Pierce (on the east side) of 18-25mph for a few hours overnight. It appears these will stay offshore the coast further south, and be greatly reduced by sunrise or shortly thereafter as the high pressure continues NNE ward.

FRIDAY: Cool all day with highs in the upper 60Fs to near 70F along the MDL and cooler North with some highs north of I-4 never making it out of the 50Fs. South Florida / Keys should reach the Middle 70Fs..all with north winds of 15-22mph making for a very cool, fall like day under mostly clear skies.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Circulation around the high which will work well NE ward to the NW Atlantic and SW ward into the SW Gulf of Mexico results in NNE-NE winds overnight. The immediate east coast from Port Canaveral and South should level off in the quick temperature fall that will ensue with the setting sun, and actually warm a few degrees prior to sunrise, remaining essentially in the lower to mid 60Fs while inland lows vary from the low 50Fs to mid 40Fs as far south as Okeechobee, and even cooler from Ocala toward the Big Bend and Panhandle region.

SATURDAY: With a cool/cold start early winds will become ENE everywhere by late morning with a rapid warm up into the 70Fs with sunny to scattered skies working onshore by early afternoon. Winds in the 10-15mph range and 70F's to make for a stellar weekend with similar conditions on Sunday.

BEYOND: Much of next week will be more of the same with overnight lows gradually warming as air mass modification (rising dew point temperatures) is prolonged with continued ENE-E flow. Any windier conditions (above 18mph) will be restricted to the Southern 1/3 of the state. There might be some low topped sprinkles toward South Florida by early to mid next week, but not worth the mention in a forecast highlight.

NEXT WEEKEND: So far, it continues to look like the weather this coming weekend won't be that of the following weekend per the GFS Model. Warmer with overnight and daytime highs remaining in the 70Fs at the coast and 60Fs inland with highs near 80F or above interior and west, cooler near the east coast everywhere . E winds becoming ESE-SE as the next front will be on the approach by next Thursday (right on cue). It still appears this front will reach Central, this time becoming absorbed quickly in the prevalent dome of high pressure over the southeast States toward coastal South Carolina. Not once in the past 4 days (and 16 model runs) has the GFS showed a clear cut frontal passage. Numerous showers with moisture depth reaching upward toward 8000 ft (as opposed to a shallower 5000 ft) would result in measurable rainfall, mainly over the Southern 2/3 of the state with the higher totals within 40 miles of the East Coast from Brevard County and South.

Sub-Tropical Sean With 45 mph Winds Spits at Florida East Coast Today

2011-11-08T10:53:00.002-05:00

Sub-Tropical SEAN is seen in this enhanced water vapor image from early this morning. The system has winds of 45mph and will likely strengthen further during the next 48 hours as it remains nearly stationary and eventually drifts toward the west to northwest before entering cooler waters. Also shown is the ridge of high pressure (zig zag line) down the East Coast into the Gulf and flow around it. Florida is in 'dry air' and our activity is not related to Sean other than very indirectly at best, but directly in the sense of the long period and large ocean swells. Cold front moving through the Southern Plains with upper level low shown over New Mexico. That low will move toward Western Michigan track the front across Florida, while the low will be far removed in NE Canada. Best chance of severe today shown in solid lavender with other areas in the dash lavender (but not all inclusive) possible. ..for presentation purposes only. The problem being presented today for severe further north is not unlike that which happens in Florida along the Magic Dividing line. The best wind profiles will be far removed in western Michigan, whereas all the instability will be near and south of the Arklatex Region several hundred miles away. The difference with these events in Florida is that the two regions are separated by, well, almost nothing.

OVERNIGHT: Decoupling and resultant drainage flow was more expansive last night with only the Cape toward West Palm Beach remaining in NE winds ( along and east of US 1), as well as a small portion of far NE Florida near JAX. Net result was cool temperatures in the low to mid 60Fs many areas as far south as Okechobee, with Homestead near Miami having the same temperature as Pensacola before sunrise. In the areas not affected by the factors of decoupling and drainage lows remained in the low 70Fs (Cape to West Palm) except far NE Florida near cooler ocean waters and less direct flow off the ocean. This can be best seen by the well past sunrise temperature schematic which shows temperatures already rising along the east coast where onshore winds of 10-20mph today will prevail...with some coastal sprinkles being the dominant mode of activity today mainly along and east of the light blue line.

TODAY: Coastal highs mainly in the mid to upper 70Fs (South Central/South) near the warmer ocean waters but prevailing mid to lower 70Fs further north. Inland temperatures in the upper 70Fs to near 80F.

Morning RUC and North American Model (NAM) forecast soundings indicate a very strong subsidence inversion just below 5000 ft this afternoon that would not support rain, with the prevalent modus operandi being banks of vertically challenged pancake stratocumulus clouds which could pass well inland and across the state. Daytime heating should lower dewpoints inland, so not sure even a sprinkle will be found west of I95 except toward South Florida. There are bigger gaps in the cloud field per satellite imagery than of yesterday, likely due to the better organization of 'now Sean' and increasing subsidence around the western periphery (far removed from the center) as anticyclonic flow starts to encompass the storm. A sample forecast sounding shows how shallow the moisture will be today if the NAM is correct.

NOTE the dewpoint and temperature lines above and where they separate below 850mb which by standards is at 5000ft. Looks like a sprinkle day with a brief shower possible only at the beaches. This inversion was maybe 1000 ft higher yesterday at best, but every inch counts under the circumstances. This sounding equates to spittle driplets.

MEANWHILE: Sean is well off to the east and is centered somewhere roughly a few hundred miles east of West Palm. Models have all seemed to initialize it too far north by 50-75 miles. No matter. The storm is nearly stationary and seems to be getting better wrapped up. Sean is meeting critieria of being a '27'...near the 27th latitude and hovering over 27C degree ocean water temperatures (which meet those necessary for tropical storm formation). Waters cool SUBSTANTIALLY north of the latitude of Jacksonville well out at sea toward Bermuda. Regardless, the storm could still become better organized and start to look more impressive on satellite imagery through Thursday.

Green line shows the western extent of the circulation per cloud types. The lavender lines along the east coast of Florida is the area that onshore winds blew all night (where the atmosphere did not decouple and/or where drainage flow was not experienced, thus warmer overnight lows). The orange arrows show the flow before sunrise. The yellow indicates low clouds or thin fog closer to the ridge axis noted by the blue zig zag.

Per satellite animations so far this morning, it looks like the best chances for any actual showers will occur over Volusia and North Brevard toward late morning and early afternoon...but other areas could get in on the action at any time after 2pm, but not be a big deal.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Suspect that almost everywhere might fall prone to drainage flow, but a small corridor could remain free of those affects along the east coast from Canaveral to Ft. Pierce/West Palm once again. Similar temperatures with less chance of showers limited to sprinkles.

During the day Wednesday models have been agreeing that sometime between 11AM -2PM the east coast could fall within the realms of circulation of Sean as the ridge of high pressure pulls out to the NE ahead of the approaching cold front. Shower chances could exist once again mainly within 25 miles of the east coast from the North Side of the Cape to Miami. The NAM is showing ample moisture to support showers but does not depict any. Then again, that has been the case the past few days. The limiting factor though will be how shallow the moist layer will actually be. I suspect it will be a sprinkle fest at best at this point given the trends with winds more northerly with less oceanic effects. The GFS has trended downward with the rain chance.

THURSDAY: Front will be in the Panhandle and lift off to the NNE while crossing the state dragging its non-dynamic tail across the state Thursday night ... with hardly a surface reflection. During the day, winds will be NNW-NW with a cool morning due to drier air now in place due to subsidence (sinking) around Sean combined with drainage down the spine of the state. Thus, the cooler morning everywhere will be a function of lower dew points (less moisture) holding heat in as well as no wind off the warm ocean waters. High pressure in the mid-levels will build NE ward from the SW Gulf further cutting off the moisture supply, but not fully enough before generating rain along the front along and north of I-4 (at worst)...if even that. The front will clear the remainder of the state pretty much un-noticed until after dark when winds become more NNW.

MEANWHILE: Sean will become Extra Post Tropical and move out as a gale near to or shortly after passing the Bermuda Triangle, eventually impacting indirectly the coastal NE states toward Maine and possibly even Greenland as it heads toward the Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. Models vary from taking what is left across Greenland to merging
SuperExtraPostMortum Sean with the other low that will be tracking the cold front across the state (noted earlier in this post), and subsequently retrograding that merger toward far northern Canada south of the Arctic Ocean!:

FRIDAY: High pressure in the mid levels continues to build in the mid-levels across the NE gulf and into the Mid-Atlantic while a surface high builds eastward from Central Texas behind the front. The two combined could send a 'wind surge' of 22-28mph down the east coast, but so far it looks like that surge will narrowly by-pass the coast by less than 15 miles. Either way, after a very cool morning low with most areas in the low 50s-upper 40s and closer to 60F only right on the beach from Port Canaveral and south, due north winds during the afternoon coupled with the already pre-established drier air will limit daytime highs along and north of the magic dividing line (Canaveral to Tampa Bay region) to the upper 60Fs and cooler north, with lower-mid 70Fs graduating (warming) the further south one goes to the Keys (upper 70Fs).

FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY: Winds clip the coast all night, so the coolest temperatures east of US1 might actually be felt around 2AM and warming a few degrees as winds gradually become more onshore by sunrise Saturday, but similar overnight lows to Friday Morning elsewhere.

WEEKEND WEATHER/BEYOND: Picture perfect with winds becoming easterly post-haste by late Saturday afternoon and beyond (eventually ESE-SE by late Monday). Temperatures round the clock in the 70Fs right at the coast, warming into the 80Fs by Monday South Florida and spreading northward to much of the state Tuesday. Overnight lows warming inland as well, but will still be in the 50Fs most areas until Tuesday morning.

Next chance for showers comes Monday and Tuesday before the next front comes, in you guessed it, nearly exactly one week after the now approaching front passes per this time of year. The next front will have a problem crossing the entire state..or this is at least possible. The GFS has shown this for several runs day after day, with the front hanging up anywhere from South Georgia to Central Florida. The easterlies to ESE-SE winds with high pressure now established due east to ESE of the state in the Atlantic and increasing moisture could make for a showery weekend before that of Thanksgiving, more 'showery' than this previous regime, but a bit warmer as well. This is well out in time and will likely change innumerable times before then, but so far the writing has been on the wall for a more wet period heading toward the week before T-Day for a while now.

Will Gale Have a "Sex" Change to "Sean"? More of the Same Locally

2011-11-07T09:31:00.001-05:00

Sunrise temperature plots show winds again decoupled overnight with drainage flow ensuing along the Suwanee River Valley Basin and South along I-95 to SE Florida. The only locations that did not decouple overnight were extreme coastal NE Florida and along the immediate coast from Cocoa Beach to Pompano Beach. At Cape Canaveral the temperature varied from 68F - 73F degrees pre-dawn at my place over the course of a few hours proving that this area was trying to make the break, but PAFB never experienced these variations. DAB's winds went NW and cool once again as did MIA and Kendall area.

TODAY: Very similar to yesterday with weaker on shore winds today. Morning RUC forecast soundings are indicating that unlike yesterday the inversion around 5000 ft might never lift, thus inland winds across the interior should not be as strong today as well as those along the immediate east coast which should be in the 10-20mph with some stronger gusts almost anywhere, but most likely far NE Florida and SE Florida and areas toward the West side of the state.

Model guidance is useless once again for a rain forecast since none of the driving principals for convective or stratiform type rain really rules either of those roosts, so went with visible satellite imagery , morning trends, and the forecast available moisture in the lowest 5000 ft of the atmosphere. With that, the best chance of measurable rain today from a purely visceral perspective appears to be from the FL/GA border to Ormond Beach or just north of there. Admittedly, not very 'scientific'.

From another perspective, my other gut instinct is to label this overall weather period of today through Tuesday as being a purely nocturnal type setup. In that sense, the better chance of showers from DAB to MIA will be after 6pm through 9AM Tuesday morning. Noting that none of the models are showing rain anywhere even now as they are coming in steadily toward and over NE Florida into Flagler County. The only reason I'm not fully buying into this idea is because the latest RUC is not showing the 5000 ft inversion to lift today as it normally would during the afternoon. If so, the better moisture will remain locked in place below that level and allow for a continuation of showers all day almost anywhere underneath the inversion...sneaky devils.

This would also mean, however, that inland winds will not be nearly as strong as yesterday with showers making it well into the interior under the inversion. It also means afternoon highs will remain in the lower-mid 70Fs...since the cooler night time air and that being advected off the cooling Atlantic waters would remain trapped under the inversion. Best thing to observe casually, if the temperature starts to climb into the upper 70Fs to near 80F, the rain chance goes down...at least until just after or near sunset. In short, any rains to reach the state south of the JAX area is merely 'atmospheric spittle' ejecting from the low well offshore just under 1000 miles away.

Visible satellite image with daybreak indicates some brighter cloud tops as opposed to yesterday's 'field of cotton' type image indicating that showers might very well extend out through the great beyond into the Atlantic from east of Jupiter Inlet and North. Thus, chance of showers with big periods of sunshine as well. Shower tops are very low, so they can sneak in pretty quickly since they will not be visible from far away except to the prudent observer.

Much of what will occur today also depends on what happens with the Gale (low) offshore. Morning RUC and NAM trends for it to become better organized throughout the day, and per those runs this low in my mind could become a named subtropical low ("Sean") by tonight (per the RUC) or by Tuesday night (per the NAM) models...given that the system is ingesting warm air and lifting it to the upper levels slowly but surely. The RUC has the system warm core through the bottom 5-7000ft by 6pm tonight, whereas the NAM is slower. The GFS never makes the system subtropical at all. For now, would ride with that model, but morning visible satellite imagery has been trending stronger/better . The storm is twice that of yesterday if not more in terms of compactness. The bigger (or other) conundrum in terms of naming the system is that is ingesting dry air throughout the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere, so that factor alone might preclude a "Sean" Storm despite the surface forecast winds that would befit such nomenclature.

Clearly a low circulation in the low levels at sunrise, with a broader expanse of circulation extending to the SW by 240NM (nautical miles). Note how the cloud 'types' change in between the Green Arrows where the small low topped showers are contained off the Florida East Coast. Those combined with the patches of paper thin, pancake stratocumulus clouds indicate subsidence above the 5-60000ft inversion (sinking air) as well as it being BONE DRY aloft.

Meanwhile, a front is nearly stationary today across the Plains states, but will be on the move tonight as a large and deep upper level low presses in closer to the area from Arizona / New Mexico. All modes of severe weather are possible in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and South Central Kansas, with hail seeming to be the most likely distraction (up to 2" or more sized) as well as some tornadoes, although the set up is not screaming "Tornado" in my mind, it is close to it though, and therefore the area is already being closely monitored with a least one Tornado Watch possible after 1pm CST.

TUESDAY: Either way, it looks like the 'low' offshore will remain nearly stationary today generally 850-950 miles east of St. Augustine but begin a general drift toward the W-WSW through Wednesday.
The more well developed the system becomes, the lower the rain chances and wind strength will be on Tuesday, namely since the state will not only be under subsidence from sinking air due to the wedge of High Pressure extending from Virginia to the Central Gulf, but also due to sinking air on the west side of the low as it backs closer to the east coast of Florida.

WEDNESDAY: So far guidance continues to indicate the low will be on its closest approach to East Central Florida. The NAM and GFS are indicating a sliver of moisture convergence to work down the coast from DAB to MIA through the course of the day (from Just west of I-95 and east). This will be a different type of set up if it does occur than what has been happening the past few days, and would not spread further inland.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cold front to approach the Panhandle. Temperatures will fall before and after this so called 'boundary' due to the winds being NW. ..at least in the morning, but warmer Thursday afternoon. In truth, it looks like a "Faux Pas Front"...with cooler temperatures due solely to a function of prolonged NW winds pulling drier land-based air across the state as opposed to marine air. Net result is lower morning low temperatures (lower dew points) on Friday with low 60Fs at the coast cooling to the mid-upper 50Fs along and west of US1 / I95 with upper 40Fs down the spine of the state toward NW Osceola County and lower 40Fs Panhandle toward interior NE Florida. Warm Thursday afternoon but a few degrees cooler Friday afternoon and night.

DRY except perhaps some sprinkles working just offshore and down the coast and perhaps coming onto land in Southern Palm Beach through Dade Counties and the upper Keys.

SATURDAY: Stellar weekend. By this time the low offshore is lifted well to the north, and a bit ironically has a cold front extending from it well out at sea as it becomes fully extra-tropical...After a cool start to the day, temperatures from then on out are similar to what we have experienced the past few days, if not a few degrees warmer, with the only rain chances around the Keys and far SE Florida (meager). Winds swing to NE late Saturday with slow air mass modification commencing.

Next front on the schedule per this time of year should be approaching 6-7 days later, and sure enough the GFS follows that line of climatological reasoning.

Still looks like the period between November 16 - 22 time frame could have something 'active' in terms of either wet , wind, or both...but not of severe convective (thunderstorms) type.

Partly Sunny, Slightly Breezy, Warmer - A Few Showers

2011-11-06T09:50:00.003-05:00

FLORIDA is on the far left of the morning visible satellite image. Low pressure area noted in red will remain nearly stationary today and drop a bit more toward the SW and W through Monday. Current position is roughly 700 miles east of Ormond Beach. By Wednesday it will generally be approximately 475 east of Cape Canaveral and will have weakened considerably by that time as it opens up and starts to lift north and merge with another area of low pressure moving off the NE U.S. to Nova Scotia.

TODAY: As expected, the atmosphere decoupled overnight where inland lows were in the lower 60s and mid-upper 50Fs with a north wind, whereas at the East Coast winds remained NE from Cape Canaveral south toward Pemproke Pines where overnight lows remained in the low 70Fs (and actually warmed after 2am from the upper 60Fs in some locations). Winds in Miami were even NW this morning as opposed to easterly. Sharp cap at 5000 ft will lift toward 7300ft after noon at which point clouds should freely cross from east to west across the state. Models and even the Mesoscale Analysis Page are worthless today in determining where and to what extent showers will occur, considering that showers are mostly occurring toward SE Florida early this morning despite strong Convective Inhibition and the inversion, since this activity is occurring underneath those factors and are thus very low topped beneath the inversion.

THIS AFTERNOON: The subsidence inversion should lift by noon at which point stronger winds around 2000 ft will attempt to work to ground level resulting in ENE-NE winds in the 15-22mph range with a few stronger gusts. Winds might actually be stronger toward the interior. Showers will be moving a little slower today, as will the cloud patches. Thus, there could be enough sunshine during those breaks for highs to reach near 80F from Southern Volusia and South and across the interior with mid-upper 70Fs further north and cooler jet closer toward I10 along the coast near JAX/St. Augustine.

Morning surface plot from Melbourne's Local Data Integration System shows northerly drainage flow under the low level cap. Green 'hatches' show where a sprinkle or brief shower could occur today at almost anytime, but most likely after 2pm. Winds offshore are 20-23mph, and those should work in by noon time and work across the state by early afternoon. Satellite image (above) shows no end to the patches of clouds. But, they will move a bit slower today per model guidance depiction of the winds at their level. Thus, big breaks with sun followed by some mostly cloudy skies, with some blue sky likely visible along the horizon in some direction at any given time except in the showers.

TONIGHT: Instant replay of rather benignly breezy conditions this afternoon with the 'gale'well offshore. The surface low well offshore will start to creep in a general W-WSW direction and begin to weaken later on Monday. In the meantime, the Surface ridge which is driving down the entire eastern sea board will start to displace more toward the NE and begin to overlap the low pressure area, resulting in more ENE winds. Fog will be possible over the northwestern portions of the interior now that ample moisture will have translated across the state under the subsidence region aloft and as winds decouple overnight toward Ocala and west and south toward northern Polk.

MONDAY: Overnight lows tonight along the east coast will remain in the 70Fs from Brevard and south under partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy skies at times. With the inversion lifting again toward noon time. Shower chances look minimal once again, but the chance does exist. Winds will replay with afternoons in the 'upper teens to twenties', but perhaps be just a few mph stronger during to just after peak heating.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The low pressure area should be at its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday and be quite broad..located generally 550 East of Cape Canaveral. As such, rain chances might increase Tuesday night into Wednesday along the coast at anytime. Not so sure the overnight lowering of the inversion will occur Tuesday night though, which would mean warmer overnight lows everywhere and mild conditions since winds would not decouple from the 2000 ft level.

THURSDAY: Front will be on the approach, with the high pressure sliver still wedged in between the approaching front of low pressures and the low offshore which will start to lift a bit north and open up.
Winds on Thursday with the proximity of the low will become NW with no rain chances. Cooler start to the day along the east coast without the onshore wind component (60Fs) but warmer everywhere with highs in the lower 80Fs with some mid-80Fs interior and SE Florida.

FRIDAY: It appears the front will go through sometime Friday afternoon, but timing remains up in the air. Small chance of showers along the front with a period of NW winds a little stronger right after FroPa.

SATURDAY: Still up in the air regarding morning lows, since the GFS is oscillating back and forth between very very cool to 'not so bad'. Still favor the not so bad, with coastal lows in the mid-upper 50Fs and the mid-upper 40Fs interior and west. Dry.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Rapid airmass modification as winds swing around to N-NNE overnight Saturday. Sunday morning lows possibly in the 60Fs along the coast. Chance of a coastal shower from the Cape South as winds swing on shore, but too small to probably even put in an official forecast.

BEYOND: Smooth sailing in the temperature department for quite some time to come with 70Fs round the clock and low 80Fs during peak heating hours. Could start to see more coastal showers again, but not ready to make a call on that one, considering the details of even today are tough enough, let along over a week from now.

Florida East Coast To Narrowly Miss a Major Gale Event Through Sunday

2011-11-05T09:18:00.003-04:00

FORECAST PER the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Model for 2pm today. Shown is surface wind forecast to be 50kts (close to 55mph) offshore the Carolinas due to pressure gradient winds between High Pressure from the Mid-Atlantic to New England and a broad surface low east of South Carolina.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: Strong winds are looming not too far away, but will never reach land to the magnitude at the coast of those offshore. Morning winds are NNW-NW and in the 5-12mph range to near calm. Latest radar shows very fast moving shower sprinkles not far offshore awaiting for the surface low to move further to the ESE and the overnight inversion to break. Any clouds are limited to the immediate East Coast from Brevard and North and further inland toward NE Florida where the NE winds are starting to work in. These clouds will spread out with daytime heating after 11am or noon once the inversion starts to break.

7AM: Yellow shows morning cloud cover per infrared satellite image before the sun is fully risen. Current position of low and future first best guess track of this low through Wednesday afternoon. Rain chance impacts mostly from near DAB to Sebastian could spread South, especially on Wednesday with the only wind impacts (which will be minor) limited to north of Ft. pierce, and best chance/highest from Cape Canaveral to Playalinda Beach. (blue)

TODAY: The surface low will move ESE (East South East) through most of the day then begin to take a Southeast to South Curve tonight through Sunday. The morning inversion per forecast soundings will begin to break between 12pm -2pm andl lift from around 1200ft toward 7000 ft by 4pm. During this time, showers will work closer to shore and clouds will work SW into the interior as winds begin to pick up.

During this transition surface winds of 20-30kts per the RUC will swipe the east coast closet to Ormond Beach to Sebastian, with a big wind speed gradient between the A1A corridor and US1, sometime around 1-2pm. As of the latest RUC run of 6AM, winds of 30-34mph could impact the tip of the CAPE and very close to Port Canaveral from just east of due north. All models generally agree that rain showers will be possible after 2pm with a potential quick sprinkle before that time. The better overall chance of showers which could briefly make things 'wet' is during a window between 3pm - 10pm, mainly along and east of I95 as far south as Ft. Pierce and north to St. August after which time the inversion lowers and the moisture depth becomes too shallow to support anything more than cloud cover.

Had things been set up with the low positioned another 200 miles further west this could have been a major east coast weather event. The other precluding factor reducing rainfall potential for this system is the cooling Atlantic Ocean waters since earlier in the month when the high rainfall totals occurred and waters were warmer and the fact that winds were unidirectional with height as opposed to veering

Overnight low at the Cape/PAFB was around 59-60F as anticipated but cooler all other locations. Today's high along the east coast will work through the lower toward mid 70Fs during the better cloud breaks prior to 2pm. Outside of the NE-and far Eastern South Central Portions other areas could get into the upper 70Fs toward lower 80Fs. More cloud cover could spread across a much larger portion of the state after 2pm until right around sunset.

TONIGHT: Winds decrease toward dark, especially inland as the inversion lowers and the stronger winds ride above the inversion. It still appears thus that winds at ground level will 'decouple' from the stronger winds at 2000 ft below the inversion, and any sprinkles are restricted to just off the coast on the lee of the Gulf Stream after 10pm. By now, the air mass will have been modified due to flow off the ocean all day, with overnight lows near the coast in the upper 60Fs and cooler inland and west where winds will be more from the north under the decoupled atmosphere. Continued air mass modification through Wednesday with more onshore winds blowing across 70Fs ocean water temperatures each day from mid morning through sunset.

SUNDAY: So far, it looks like a replay with the inversion lowering at night and winds decoupling, then lifting toward 7500-8500ft feet from sunrise to noon allowing winds to work across the state. Winds on Sunday will not have the potential to be as strong as the low slowly tightens up a bit more, thus reducing the expanse of gradient winds. Low level flow becomes more diffluent as well, reducing rain chances. Coastal convergence with the land mass on the lee of the Gulf Stream as the low drops further south and opens up again toward afternoon should result in a more NE wind component up and down the east coast, with a chance of light fast moving sprinkles or showers and an expanding low level cloud deck across more of the state Sunday, and especially Monday as the low starts to retrograde more toward the W or WSW. At its furthest southern most latitude it should be offshore somewhere east of Ft. Pierce to Sebastian inlet, but that position holds no bearing on sensible weather conditions (those that can be seen and experienced) for Floridians. Winds Sunday in the 15-22mph range, spreading inland during the day and lifting by late afternoon as the pressure gradient decreases.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Low slowly fills and winds slowly lower to the 12-20mph range in the afternoon, spreading across the state during the day as the low drifts in a general west direction well offshore somewhere between Melbourne Beach to just north of West Palm Beach. By now, after 3-4 days of onshore flow the air mass will have been moistened and temperatures modified, with overnight lows inland in the 60Fs to upper 50Fs and lows at the coast in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, cooler toward JAX/St. Augustine and perhaps by this time Ormond Beach as well due to prolonged upwelling of deeper/cooler ocean waters from the offshore gale force winds.

WEDNESDAY: Frontal boundary will be on the approach while the surface and mid level low are at their closet position to Florida. The mid-upper level low will open into a trough and lift north as the approaching trough from the west is sensed and starst to become absorbed within the mean flow. Surface winds will back to the NNE-N or even NNW on Wednesday, by which time the fully modified air mass will warm into the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs most anywhere.

Wednesday has the potential (at this point) to be a very showery day across the entire East Half of the State from sunrise to just about sunset with NNW-N winds around 10-15mph during the afternoon with the closer proximity of the trough, but this will be watched in coming days to see if things can be a bit nicer in that regard.

THURSDAY: It is odd to have a N-NNW wind PRECEDING an approaching cold front, when normally they would be from the south. As the front approaches it encounters the narrowing wedge of high pressure between the' by now' filled low/trough which lifts north and regenerates toward the coast of the NE states. This wedge will likely squeeze out much of the rains and possible storms that could occur into the Panhandle region as winds back to westerly Thursday afternoon while the front approaches.

West winds with a high in lower 80Fs depending on timing of the front. The front could go through nearly dry for most of the Peninsula, based on the evidence of the GFS with each consecutive model run going from wet, to less wet, to barely wet, and now dry. Northwest winds Thursday night with fropa and FALLING temperatures.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The GFS is taking back what it read yesterday, and is now calling for a "break out the parkas from storage" yuckcast, early winter like (by Central/South Florida standards) day with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs state wide. Highs on Friday might remain in the 50Fs. Another cold morning Saturday with highs in the mid 60Fs. But again, the GFS could be over playing the temperatures. Might not put that on the check list of 'honey dos' though, just in case.

The sun has now been up long enough, here is the VISIBLE satellite image of the SE states as seen from a camera from space:

BEYOND: Rejoice. Long range has been very consistent from run to model run with developing easterly winds becoming SE if not SOUTH for a good 5 days if not longer with highs in the lower 80Fs during peak heating and lows in the 70Fs (which looks a bit warm to me)..more than likely mid-upper 60Fs and highs lower to mid 80Fs (South Florida).

Cold Front Clears State Tonight, Nor'Easter Conditions Through Monday

2011-11-04T08:15:00.002-04:00

NOW at 7:15AM - Cold front progressing down the state with rain showers over the Tampa Area to Jax and into Ormond Beach near Daytona. Increasing clouds precede and accompany the cold front which have entered the Orlando Area while the Cape Area remains clear at sunrise.. Est'd front positions and times of those positions in dashed lines.
Showers will become less likely the further south the front progresses, most likely along the Gulf Coast Side toward Ft. Myers with some lighter drizzle like rain occurring on and just behind the boundary from Central To South Florida

TODAY: A cold front is working down the peninsula from NW to SE with temperatures in the Panhandle in the 40Fs. Preceding the front, temperatures along the immediate east coast are cooler than the past few days as expected given the loss of the onshore wind component which blew across Atlantic water temperatures in the 70Fs. Temperatures this morning south of the front are generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, although some lower 60Fs are being observed west of US1.

The front should cross the Beach-Line toward the east coast between 11:30am to 1:30pm and be accompanied by mostly cloudy sky conditions, and some patches of drizzle. Skies will begin to clear up in this area from Orlando and east after 2pm, with partly cloudy to scattered clouds working toward late afternoon with some better clearing after 5:30pm, whereas South Florida should then be in whatever cloud cover the front can still muster up.

Temperatures today across Central will top out in the lower 70Fs due to cloud cover preceding the front during peak heating hours whereas far South Florida could work into the low-mid 80Fs in Dade, Collier, Broward, and lower Palm Beach Counties. SW winds precede the front and WNW-NW winds follow in the 10-18mph range.

TONIGHT: Front will have cleared the state, and expect a fairly rapid temperature drop as the sun goes down everywhere behind the front, mainly Central and North Florida with clearing skies and lessening winds which will be gradually veering to the NW-NNW overnight. Temperatures falling into the low-mid 60Fs by 8pm Central and colder north Florida. Temperatures along A1A will likely bottom out around 4-5AM and hold steady right near 60F but much cooler west of the intracoastals the entire East Coast with lows falling into the upper 40Fs west side of Orlando and South to interior SW Florida with a broad expanse of of mid 50Fs toward Miami Metro and Ft. Lauderdale. In essence, nothing has changed from the expected in yesterday's post.

SATURDAY: The surface low accompanying this front will be moving off the South Carolina Coast and be sliding slowly toward the ESE-SE through the day. Florida will be on the backwash side of the developing low and on the front end of high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic and NE States behind the frontal boundary. Increasing NNE-NE winds by Mid Afternoon with a chances of sprinkles right along the coast with increasing winds in the 18-27mph range from Ft. Pierce to JAX. Here is the GFS representation of this scenario per its 2AM EDT Model Run.

SATURDAY at 2AM. Sprinkles possible at the coast, but mostly expecting cloudy skies. Low that is shown will drop SSE-S another 100 miles at most and remain nearly stationary through Sunday

SATURDAY NIGHT: The GFS is very consistent from run to run, and although it varies slightly with the ECMWF well offshore, the impacts to Florida are not really all that significantly different to bother going into a description on how they differ. The NAM is again most aggressive with the wind fields showing a near gale at the coast. It also shows only specific areas to get rain fall, while most areas are dry. For the most part, Saturday looks dry except that pesky field of very light rain at the coast depicted by the GFS, which looks more to me like mist, especially since the forecast sounding reflects some slightly drier air at the 1000 ft level. Any rain to fall from the already shallow deck of moisture (dry above 6500 ft) will have to do so through winds of 25-40 kts before reaching the ground. Chances are, it will be dry on Saturday until after dark.

SET THE CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR. We begin Daylight Wasting Time.

Despite the stronger winds at the coast and up through 5000 ft, they will decouple quickly at night, thus inland winds will become more northerly, drainage type with cool over night temperatures , but not quite as cool as Saturday morning. Each morning becomes slowly warmer, and winds decouple again Sunday night into Monday.

SUNDAY: The strongest winds appear will occur late Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday during the late morning through late afternoon. Sprinkles or mist could turn to showers for a time Sunday afternoon with winds at the coast in the 18-27mph range, although winds just above the deck could be a bit stronger. This still needs better confirmation though, since the potential is there for winds in the 32mph range (at least) which is getting to the 'very breezy' to windy level. Showers could occur up and down the entire east coast on Sunday as the low drops to its lowest southern latitude well offshore , which could spread into the interior during the course of the noon-5pm time frame. Highs in the lower-mid 70Fs, perhaps a bit warmer toward South Florida.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Winds decouple once again, with more northerly type winds of 4-8mph over the interior (west of I-95) while coastal winds remain NE-ENE at 12-18mph with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70Fs right at the beaches and cooling by 10F degrees further inland with the drainage flow. Mist or light showers still possible, but again...have an inkling to hedge toward only cloudy.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winds gradually will decrease for good not until Tuesday night with sunset, predominately in the 18-24mph range at the coast with shower sprinkles again penetrating inland during the day once winds 'recouple' with the stronger 2000 ft level winds after sunrise and spread to the west during the late morning. There could be a time frame when winds become more ENE but those will start to back more toward the NNE to even N on Wednesday as the low pressure area starts to fill and lift north.

The latest GFS has one new twist. Better rain chances along the east coast on Wednesday as the low opens up and allows deeper back wash moisture to back into the coast rather than be wrapped around the low while it was more tightly wound. Meanwhile, another cold front will be approaching the state which puts a quick end to the rain chances later Wednesday afternoon with decreasing winds (which will have already been noted by Tuesday night).

The low off the coast will be stuck in a very progressive split jet stream flow pattern over the U.S., but will act as a bit of a block out at sea. Eventually, the block will break and the progressive pattern will affect Florida as well heading into Thursday.

***NOTE: During the course of this Nor'Easter like event, winds will have a very LONG FETCH off the NW Atlantic. Seas could build well offshore with extra high tides which could cause some minor beach erosion issues in some locations. Needed to say, rip currents and rough seas will be a big boating and swimming hazard, although not sure why anyone would want to go in the ocean to swim under the cloud cover and 'not so warm' temperatures in the 70Fs...with equal ocean temps. Tourist beware. This could make for some good "Victory At Sea" surfing for the experienced who don't mind a strong drift down the coast. I always preferred heading out at one location and not fighting the drift, with someone to pick me up 5 miles down the coast a few hours later.

BEYOND: Very progressive pattern indicating TWO fronts to impact the state Thursday and again toward the end of the weekend. Best rain chance is with the first front on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Winds oddly enough never even get southerly preceding the next front, but instead back to N to NW-WNW-W as the low off the coast lifts north and the next front moves in. The GFS last night had a big cold shot of air with this front taking temperatures in the 40Fs almost state wide ( which seemed suspicious this far out in time since the GFS has a history of over estimating low temperatures beyond 120 hours). Sure enough, the newer run is no longer showing air that cold, and suspect the next run will be even warmer. Very progressive pattern continues with a strong southern branch jet of 100 kts across Florida and an equally strong branch just to the north of the state (but how far north is the great unknown).

Nor'Easter 'Like' Conditions Could Put Big Damper On Coastal Weekend Plan

2011-11-03T15:41:00.003-04:00

Latest Surface Plot with Radar Overlay from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis webpage plots shows a cold front approaching Pensacola with a High Pressure Ridge which extends NNE off the coast of New England and down the coast cutting across North Central Florida. The cold front will beach across the Big Bed by sunrise on Friday and clear the south end of the state near or shortly after sunset.

TODAY: Surface ridge crossing the state today with a moist shallow layer trapped below 5500 ft (bone dry above) under a subsidence inversion. The upper level trough supporting the surface front will press East to ENE through tomorrow and off the Georgia Coast before Saturday, day break. Skies today to be partly sunny, with profound big breaks in the clouds for ample sunshine from time to time co-existing with other areas of nearly cloudy conditions as light ENE winds become more SE to S and work down the coast during the mid-late afternoon. By sunset light ESE-SE winds will have reached toward the Space Coast with continued ENE-E winds going ESE toward far South Florida. Clouds could break up a little more toward sunset as the trough approaches and breaks up the inversion, but timing is difficult to portend exactly when. Otherwise, non - consequential and pleasant conditions prevail with highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs with light winds, possibly variable toward sunset Central/South.

3pm visible satellite image today shows cotton patches over Florida induced by heating of the land mass (note the lack of clouds over the waters). Later today most of the clouds should dissipate with the exception of the Panhandle as the front will be entering that area and cotton pickers hit the fields.

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY: The front will continue to press eastward with overnight winds becoming SW at 12-20mph by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Overnight lows similar to the past two mornings, with much less warming behind the front during the afternoon across North Florida.

Increasing clouds with daybreak as well, with continued mostly cloudy conditions entering Central Florida and continuing until at least 3pm..possibly breaking up from NW to SE during the mid to late afternoon as clouds increase from South Central to South Florida. Some showers are possible south Florida, but if so, mainly sprinkles under the cloud deck.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Winds becoming WNW after frontal passage and veering to NW-NNW overnight at 10-18mph. Skies clearing from NW-SE. The overnight low from JAX to Sebastian Inlet will likely occur prior to 5AM with a more northerly wind becoming NNE shortly after day break

As noted previously, it looks like there will be a sharp temperature gradient between those along and east of A1A to those 40 miles away from the coast toward the west side of the state. Overnight lows in the western suburbs of Orlando could be in the upper 40Fs whereas east of A1A at daybreak could be closer to the mid-upper 60Fs and warming to lower 70Fs shortly after sunrise. Very cool as far south as the southern tip of the state with lows in the mid 50Fs to lower 60Fs, co-existing with some upper 40Fs as far south as the NW side of Lake Okeechobee. Quick rebound in temperatures after 10AM everywhere.

SATURDAY: After a very cool start to the day, winds along the east coast from JAX to Ft. Pierce increase toward 15-22mph with gusts toward 28mph by early afternoon. It appears an extensive low level cloud deck will accompany these winds with some possible sprinkles under a very shallow but rather dense cloud deck which will exist approximately in the 3200 -6000ft layer. Stronger winds within the cloud deck then rapidly decreasing high up. This will be the theme through sunset with winds decreasing a few hours after dark.

BEYOND - WEEKEND RATIONALIZATION: It gets very sticky. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in General agreement with a few minor exceptions that make a major difference to the sensible weather across mainly the north 3/4 of the state from St. Augustine to Ft. Pierce. The NAM is much more aggressive with the wind and rain factor namely because it has the surface low that moves off the coast drop further south into the western Atlantic (well offshore by a few hundred miles) closer to the Florida East Coast than the GFS. It also continues to drop the low further SSE, whereas the GFS takes it further from shore and lingers it there for several days. The ECMWF seems to disregard this low all together as it swoops it ENE ward and well away, but in any case winds will remain elevated with a very long fetch from the NE-ENE from well out in the Atlantic.

Thus, big rip current threat and possibly a minor erosion threat for Flagler/Volusia if the NAM verifies. Should not be a problem for swimmers, unless one wants to swim under the clouds in choppy waters for some unknown reason.

The NAM really does look over done, especially in the instability department with the possibility of thunder toward Volusia/Flagler overnight Saturday into Sunday. The NAM overplayed this storm system as it entered the Central Plains 36 hours ago, portraying some dreadful blizzard conditions and high snowfall totals that never happened in the forecast areas. Thus, sticking with the "NAM On Over Drive" Rationalization once again...until proven different. For instance, the NAM is driving 25-35mph winds into the East Coast from Port Canaveral and north, with measurable rainfall as well, with gusts just offshore to gale force. Some of this might have to do , though, with the sea surface temperatures, which from what I read else where will be sampled later today. Thus, expecting better model agreement heading into tomorrow with a little time to spare before Saturday evening remaining.

WEEKEND FIRST GUESS: In going with the GFS, which has been most consistent: mostly cloudy near the coast with some light sprinkles only at the beaches. Surface winds are show per streamline analysis to be diffluent at the low levels under substantial drying above 8 000 ft which would account for the lack of measurable rainfall (at least, within a three hour time frame). Winds pick up interior inland during the afternoon and die off at night. Another cool start Sunday inland and west side toward the SW Side of Lake Okeechobee, but coastal lows along A1A up and down the coast remain near 70F or more . Winds pick up again Sunday afternoon and spread cloudiness inland with coastal sprinkles.

No matter which model verifies, things do not look all so great for the big Air Show along the Space Coast this weekend. Less than stellar to be more fair. From an aviation perspective, there could be moderate turbulence along the top of the cloud deck, not to mention the lower clouds obscuring a solid view of an flying vehicle for any sustained time frame. Not unlike watching the STS Missions launching into the clouds for a full 20 seconds of viewing time.

STRESSING: The much more subdued reasoning hinges on riding with the GFS positioning and strength of the high and low pressure couplets. If the NAM verifies, it will be a full bore N'oreaster , with erosion becoming a concern as well. Chances are, the truth will be somewhere in between the two models, with some measurable rainfall mainly along to north of the Beachline toward Vero, with better chances along coastal Volusia/Flagler.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More of the same with gradually decreasing winds. Inverted trough is shown along the coast on Monday, which breaks down around 11AM allowing sprinkles and clouds to work across the state. A repeat performance of less coverage is possible on Tuesday. Coastal lows and highs remain in the lower to mid 70Fs under the cloud deck, with inland lows warming each morning after Sunday.

Conditions break down much like they are doing so today around Thursday with another front very close to where to the one of today is located on Thursday morning. This front will behave in similar fashion to that of tomorrow's, although there are indications it could drop some rain during its passage. No big temperature changes.

EXTENDED: Watching the Caribbean as well as an area near the Eastern Bahamas, perhaps as soon as mid-week next week, but no land threats appear in the verge of comprehension of a tropical like system...at least not for the contingent 48 states.

Inconsequential Sprinkles Possible at Coast, Otherwise PleasantEE

2011-11-02T14:52:00.003-04:00

East to ENE winds today at 10-18mph with a few higher gusts are possible until right after sunset. A few sprinkles could eke to the coast before drying out shortly after reaching the drier air over land west of US1.

Latest temperature plot forecast for early today with the cold front to approach Florida drawn in. The white along the east coast is where a sprinkle or enhanced periods of cloudiness could occur at any time and point before dark. Winds behind this front in portions of Southern Nebraska, West Kansas, and into Western Oklahoma and eventually NW Texas are gusting between 32-45mph with temperatures behind the front in the mid 30Fs. Ahead of the front temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer with equally as strong winds from the opposite direction. Two locations in Nebraska were reporting a thunderstorm with temperatures of 40F and 34F respectively. Quite the dynamic little system for sure. Have no fear, this front will have minimal impact to Florida.

TODAY: High pressure centered over Eastern Virginia is expanding both up and down the entire east coast this afternoon in the wake of the low departing to well off shore the DEL-MAR-VA region. It cannot even be seen in the above image. The recent snows in New England appear to be abetting development of this high northward per the cold surface temperatures in the NE states where it recently snowed over the weekend. Otherwise, greater expansion of the high pressure through Florida will slowly reduce the pressure gradient and also allow winds to become more ENE to E tonight. Outside of a quickly moving sprinkle at the immediate coast (don't blink or you'll miss it north of Ft. Pierce) other areas will be partly cloudy this afternoon with pancake stratocumulus clouds with a few low topped cumulus. Highs in the lower 70Fs far North increasing to the mid-upper 70Fs Central (with a few near 80F) and upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs South.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and winds after sunset with any chance of a sprinkle removed as winds die down. Overnight lows similar to what was experienced this morning wherever you were, although coastal lows from US1 to A1A along the entire east coast might be a few degrees cooler due to less influence of the east winds blowing across the low-upper 70Fs ocean temperatures.

THURSDAY: Little overall change from today with winds quite light from the East becoming SE-SSE eventually after dark. No showers and clear to partly cloudy by early afternoon.

FRIDAY: Possibly cooler along the immediate east coast with a SW wind of 12-18 mph after sunrise preceding a cold front which by sunrise will be cutting through the Big Bend region. Cooler temperatures near the coast since the sea winds will be absent and be replaced by a land breeze. The front will be accompanied by a band of sprinkles/clouds but will likely dissipate with those with rising of the sun. Cold frontal passage across Central appears will be from late morning the mid-afternoon and be accompanied by a band of clouds and a wind shift to the west. The front will finally clear Eastern Dade shortly after sunset. Models are agreeing on a slightly faster frontal passage than previous runs, thus afternoon highs on Friday appear to be limited to the mid-upper 70Fs Central and cooler to the north, but warmer over South Central and South Florida with low-mid 80Fs. West to WNW winds will follow the front with a rapid temperature drop once the sun gets low in the sky all but SE Florida. Winds will veer from NW-N during the first 6 hours after dark per the morning runs of the NAM and GFS. No rain with the front south of I-10 for the most part.

SATURDAY: Winds nearly due north to NNE at the immediate coast. Morning lows could portray a very sharp temperature gradient from east to west across the state, with the A1A corridor from the north side of the Cape and south along mainly the barrier Islands of Brevard in the upper 60S, whereas on the west side of Orlando toward Tampa and South to the NW side of Lake Okeechobee lows could be in the mid-upper 40Fs. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50s as far south as Kendall in Dade County with the western Metro Area in the 50Fs as well, whereas Key Biscayne could be 17 F degrees warmer. So far though, it mostly looks like the only areas to skid by on this one will be the Barrier Islands of Brevard and the Keys.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: All models agree on the wind and temperature fields for the most part, with the GFS being the outlier by developing a surface to mid level low pressure area that drops SSE east of the Bahamas over the weekend. Whether or not this happens could make a big impact for the east coast in regard to Winds and rain chances. The NAM (for a change) is not so robust with an actual low developing but rather leaves it as a trough. In turn, an open wave allows more moisture to reach the coast, so without a doubt the NAM translates that to mean measurable rainfall working down the east coast from JAX along a NE wind surge with sunrise Saturday morning. The GFS is not so robust with the surge and as such, the rain. Both show equal amounts of precipitable water though with nearly identical thermal profiles aloft, but with a closed low (per the GFS) more of the moisture remains wrapped around the low and well offshore. For now, siding with the GFS per its track record recently (as of last May). Either way, increased cloudiness at least along the immediate coast with brisk NE- ENE winds through Monday.

The main concern for the weekend comes with an Air Show scheduled for the Space Coast. Even if it does not rain, or only lightly, cloud cover would greatly hamper the view...and if the NAM verifies, so would the winds at 2000 ft forecast to be in the 30-40mph range. It looks like one of "Shuttle Launch Fails For Viewing But Happening Anyway" situations unless the NAM verifies, which would mean calling the whole thing off.

BEYOND: Warming temperatures from mid to late week with overnight lows along the coast the same as the ocean temperatures offshore (low-mid 70FS)...and highs in the upper 70Fs at the coast to lower 80Fs inland and all of South Florida, perhaps mid 80Fs toward the SW Side. The GFS is showing a continued chance of sprinkles not only for the coast but elsewhere, and if so, afternoon highs could be taken down a few notches due to cloud cover, but temperatures will be far from chilly.

The next front is scheduled in the Daily Planner of the Weather Gods for late next week , so we'll have to see if they need to reschedule. So far, neither this front or the one after that has yet to show a temperature impact through mid-November. Lady Luck is on the SnowBird's Side...as well as a high percentage of the locals.

A Review - 2011 Year of Weather Anomalies Continues

2011-11-01T11:42:00.003-04:00

Coastal Sprinkles and Perhaps Very Small Measurable Amounts of rain are occurring this morning at the coast from near Vero Beach to NE Palm Beach County. These showers are working down the coast along instability and higher dew point temperatures associated with where the warm Gulf Stream waters are closest to the coast. These showers could continue toward sunset in the area in white from time to time toward lower Dade/Broward , and possibly a sprinkle could occur as far north as the lavender drawn in after 4pm to one hour before sunset.

This image shows the low level (surface based) Convective Instability which is helping generate these showers and/or thicker cloud bands per the red lines of constant CAPE (convective available potential energy). As winds become a bit more NNE later today (rather than due north), some of the showers could inch north toward Indian River or South Brevard but be of no impact. The Gulf Stream is further offshore north of Ft. Pierce...and as such will be this low level instability shown by those red line.

TODAY: Outside of that mentioned in the text contained in the captioned images shown above, low pressure east of Virginia will move very little today until a system moving eastward in a very progressive pattern along the northern tier of states from the upper Midwest south into the South Central Plains moves it out. Surface High pressure is wedge behind the former system from Maine and down the Appalachians into the North Gulf of Mexico and meets up with mid-level high pressure over the Central Gulf of Mexico. This area is responsible for substantial subsidence (sinking) of air above 6000 ft, so shower tops (of those occurring) are limited to generally that altitude. The high over the Gulf will lift toward the NNE-NE today and permit a slightly more stacked NNE wind to develop later today. The second system will move toward the ENE through Friday , with another low pressure area developing over North Georgia by Thursday, accompanied by a pre-frontal trough with no impact to most of the state other than to END the rain chance. Coastal showers are always possible, especially heading toward Thursday but will mainly dissipate as soon as they reach lower dewpoint air away from the coast. Patches of lower stratocumulus clouds will be the rule from time to time, but otherwise sunny skies prevail under weakening NNE winds by Wednesday and Thursday.

FRIDAY: This could be the coolest morning along the east coast due solely to the fact that the easterly winds will have abated ahead of the pre-frontal trough. Lows in the lower to mid 60Fs near the coast this day, but warmer everywhere in the afternoon, even after passage of that trough. No rain with the trough other than near I-10, with highs in the lower 80Fs most anywhere, possible mid 80Fs far South Florida.

The actual front will cross 'invisibly' the state on Friday, with rain limited mainly toward I-10 as far south as Gainesville near where perhaps a thundershower can eke out (worst case). Otherwise, most rain beyond the Panhandle and interior far north Florida will remain over the Gulf waters and the Atlantic. Perhaps another cool morning Saturday east side (for this area), but otherwise no impacts. Between the former system and high pressure developing further to the north in the mid-levels behind the second system which will build east well to the north of Florida, surface winds will become nearly due east on Saturday and nearly ESE just above 'the deck'. Morning lows at the immediate coast could warm to sea surface temperatures (mid-70Fs) from Port Canaveral and South, with afternoon highs more solidly warming to the mid 80Fs across the West Side of the state from Cedar Key and South with upper 70F/low 80Fs elsewhere.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Deepening easterlies will maintain this temperature regime and increase moisture levels hundredth of an inch by hundredth of inch Saturday, with more assured measurable chances of showers east of I95 overnight Saturday into Sunday as another frontal boundary slowly works into the Deep South. On its approach, the depth of the easterly flow will cease as will the rain chance. In summary, so far Sunday looks to be the best day for rain chances (which will likely change).

BEYOND: No cold fronts are expected to directly impact most of the state (other than toward I-10) for a good two weeks, but that could easily change in the extended. The trend of the long range GFS has been for high pressure in the low and mid-levels to influence most of the state, with most frontal passages to be of the 'back door' variety. Or in other words, fronts mainly sweeping from west to east north of the peninsula then sneaking in from the NNE of the east side of the ridge over the Gulf. These result in little temperature variations from the status quo and occasional wind surges from the NNE accompanied by a cloud deck and sprinkles.

===============================================
THE YEAR OF ANOMALIES, 2011 CONTINUES:
This subject has been touched on more than once in posts since earlier this year. To name a few (and I wish I could recall all of them)...the anomalies began last winter from the Floridian prospective with freezing temperatures along the Florida Beaches well before Christmas during a phase of the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) . History has just repeated itself with record snowfall in New England creating power outages to over 3 Million residents and snowfall exceeding two feet in some interior areas. Temperatures were not record breaking cold (thank goodness). In fact, during this anomaly the temperature the day after the snow fall in Crestview, Florida was 32F whereas in NYC it was 36F. This phase of the negative NAO (which can last up to two weeks only per my observations and not official), seems to be shifting just far enough offshore now to not have an impact to soil bound earthlings. We seem to be normalizing now, and as such temperatures over Florida will be close to climatological for a good 10 days at least, if not a few degrees above them.

1. Anomalies first became evident best I recall with the big cold spells that occurred twice over Florida In December, but was preceded by yes, Drought , at this time beginning over Florida. Perhaps this was the fore-bearer of the drought in Texas as the pattern in the lower latitudes retrograded in that direction to the west. It might have been over the Gulf during spring per lack of rain or even clouds there as fronts came through during latter portions of that period. The drought over Florida continued from time to time until summer, with fires such as the Iron Horse but others toward SE Florida and smaller ones of big impact toward SE Georgia which left NE Florida and cities such as JAX in days of smoke. UGH.

2. Snows in the Deep South, including cities such as Atlanta.

3. Tornado Outbreak in the Deep South over Mississippi, Alabama, NW Georgia which worked into South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania (briefly). Two separate events within a 10 day period which began over SE Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas.

4. Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley Basin

5. Drought by this time had already developed over Texas. Continuing. Record or near record breaking days of temperatures of 100F degrees in Texas and parts of Oklahoma during the summer.

6. LACK of tornadoes west of I-35 for the entire Tornado Season in Tornado Alley, but made up for by the Joplin, Missouri Tornado early into that season (east of I35). Other tornadoes toward Ada Oklahoma and a significant day in other parts of Eastern OK before Joplin, but east of I35.

7. One big tornado day in Southern Kansas and Western OK all WEST of I-35 which mainly croaked after crossing that Magic Dividing Line which was odd all by itself. Other storms early in the season from Dallas and west toward Abilene and S. Central Texas toward the Mexican Border.

8. Tornadoes in Arizona mainly just east and north of Phoenix, as well as late spring tornadoes in West Central California.

9. Drought continues in Texas.

10. Large number of tropical systems, most of which missed land, with the only big impact being from Irene. But note, hurricane force sustained winds were never measured from Irene on land.

11. The No-Name storm over Florida, which by all purposes the True no-named portion occurred on the last night from Brevard County toward the WNW near Ocala (over a fairly large area). The rest of this event was pressure gradient winds from blowing across very warm ocean waters under a cold layer of air aloft. The Not Named portion of which should be restricted, in my opinion, from the disturbance that evolved over the Northern Bahamas which moved NW-WNW-W-NW and land-fell per the lowest barometric pressure at Port Canaveral. All of the weather with this system occurred on the North Side of the system as it made landfall as it combined with the other conditions that had already been in place for two days. Biggest impacts over Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Polk Counties, as well as Dade, Broward, a part of Collier and toward Naples along the SW Coast.

12. Drought continues in Texas.

13. Lack of a substantial Monsoon Season over the Desert SW. Yes, there was some good Haboobs (dust/sand storms) related to thunderstorm outflow, but a long range period of monsoon rains barely existed long enough to call it a "season", although they did occur for two periods that come to mind off the top of my head.

13. Heavy snows over the Sierras in California and flooding in the Northern Plains in North Dakota. Snow skiing in July.

14. Blizzard like conditions around Chicago and more heavy snows in the NE states, with the New York City being the highlight since so many individuals were impacted in this region, including the Baltimore and Washington DC zones...Del-Mar-VA to NYC.

15. Lack of a solid thunderstorm season along the I-4 corridor in Florida (Lightning Alley). Most of the storms this past summer occurred near NW Brevard (Mims/Titusville) and near the Lake Okeechobee Effect zone (east side) in Indian River/St Lucie/Martin Counties. The Vero Beach area had its DEFINITE fair share of storms this year, as did Ft. Pierce. The Barrier Islands of Brevard maintained their status quo 'storm drought' (along with the Keys , which is normal) other than north of SR 520 where mainly Cape Canaveral had more storms than usual, much to this writer's delight!

Steering for storms this year when it wasn't neutral was toward the East the higher percentage of the time, which is in reverse to the norm. As such, the Tampa bay area didn't have the 'big season" normally expected, but still big (always is). This is not to say that all areas did not eventually receive the pre-requisite summer storm, it was where they occurred most consistently and direction that they moved that was a bit of an anomaly.

16. The recent EF2 tornado in South Florida and EF0 in South Central, both near the coast. Not sure these should really be included in the overall scheme of things though, since both were indirectly related to sub tropical factors which are consistently abnormal to start with in any year. Overall though, Florida has been in a Tornado and Hurricane Drought, but there was some activity toward Tampa/Lakeland in early spring with one of the several QLCS Squall lines that crossed that state this year.

17. Finally, record rainfall for the Vero Beach area this past month, surpassed since record keeping began only once before. This area received just a little more than one inch of rain shy last month than that received during the Hurricanes (Frances/Jeanne)debacle of 2004. This area received several inches just yesterday, as well as during the No Name Event (which is where the whole thing started). They also received a good thunderstorm season as noted above. So much for the drought there, man your life boats.

Which reminds me, remember the insane record flooding in Australia? Sorry if I missed something, which is likely.

FINALLY, what's next? Will these odd ball events continue into the winter? We are forecast to be in a La Nina this winter. That pattern as well the El Nino pattern have led people to believe (at least by way of that overly publicized by the fabulizing media (have to earn a buck some how), with the help of some less scientifically inclined meteorologists, that the climatological norms of such patterns leads to a predictable long range, seasonal outlook.

This is far from the reality. There are other factors such as ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) to name only a few, as well as other patterns (and yes, I expect we will be hearing about new ones as time passes and more data can be assimilated during the next 10-25 years)...that some schools of thought will be re-defined while newer ones evolve.

Realize, climatology beyond the past 50-75 years is largely based on poor record keeping (at least that which can be of any use), archaeology, and geology. Satellites have provided a tremendous view of the earth's weather at all locations simultaneously as well as has improved communications (continuing). There has likely been big changes in the earth's climate since the planet began, and there's no reason to believe that changes will not continue through eternity or as long as earth exists, a.k.a. Space Weather. Thus, this will be a continuing saga for 'a while' longer.

With that, not even going to touch what the Tornado Season and next year's Hurricane Season will be like...but that does not stop the forecasts for these seasons from being made. Hey, some folks earn a living that way . It happens every year for both, and sometimes they are correct...but far from always. Recall, even for the tropics..the number of predicted tropical storms is meaningless unless they are steered toward land. Every once in a Golden Age, those two factors for the tropical season over-laps, but when that will be is never known in advance.

Word of final warning, all hurricane prone areas are over due now for "The Big One"..or even "any one " for that matter. Biggest concern at this point at this time of year is , "When will the temperature get so cold that an actual 'coat' will have to be exhumed and the A/C turned off. Small price to pay...but boring.

Chance of Elevated Rotating Storm, Coastal Mini-Rain Event Through 2pm

2011-10-31T08:43:00.003-04:00

FORECAST helicity of over 450 m2/s2 Advecting Toward East Central Florida late morning through early afternoon

TODAY: Fairly complex situation evolving this morning as expected. For this morning so far, tossing the GFS since it has quick evolution of a surface low, whereas the trends of the short term RUC and the latest NAM hold off on that formation until later.

NOW: Appears a weak warm front just above the surface is stretched from off shore Ft. Myers toward Melbourne. Strong NE wind at Canaveral north of this feature back more toward the east and decreasing further south.

Instability from the Gulf Stream advecting on shore from Ft. Pierce toward MLB and south to Miami, and expect this could work on shore toward the Tip of the Cape by mid-late morning. The RUC and to some degree the NAM shows a variety of surface lows to form from near Miami to offshore Ft. Pierce to offshore the Cape with just above the deck a more concentric and larger area of low pressure forms along the warm front elongated as stated above through late morning all within the base of a 700mb trough. The warm front should be able to get as far west and north as Port St. John and NNE toward the North side of the Cape by noon as a slightly negatively tilted upper level trough moves through the Deep South and crosses the North Half of Florida.

Increasing Bulk Shear from the surface to 500mb, Helicity of 400-500 m2/s2 (very high), and CAPE of 400-750 (which is weak) combined with continued on shore flow in the "northeast quadrant' of a developing 925-850mb low centered near the NW side of Lake Okeechobee resulting in onshore flow, with winds veering to S to SSW-SW- W aloft and vorticity moving in with the upper level trough could set up a coastal rain event, all combined with the fact that all of the south half of the state will be within the left exit region of a strengthen upper level jet resulting in increasing upper level divergence and increasing lift could rationalize this rainfall and possibly some elevated rotating storms...but tornadoes do not look likely.

Worst case would be heavy rainfall along coastal Brevard to Vero Beach, but on the other-hand...if the factors all add up just a few miles further to the east and more quickly (per the GFS)...then light to moderate rain will be the rule ...with the better chance of moderate rainfall nearest the coast.

An urban flood statement was issued earlier for MLB and south, and with sunrise and greater progression/formation of mid level features with the approach of the upper level trough rain chances/amounts could increase especially near the coast where the low level winds meet upper level SW winds. There could be thunder by mid morning where all the ingredients meet and rotation in the mid-levels results in heavy down pours. It would not surprise me if additional flood statements are issued, and maybe a tornado warning..but believe any rotation to reach the ground would occur offshore.

The big questions are
1. Where will the 925mb low form and equally as important, when?
2. How far north will the 70F degree dew-points get. All models agree the Beach Line zone toward Tampa, the "Magic Dividing Line". Highest helicity will be right along the 70F dew-point line dividing the state in half..again along the "Magic Dividing line".

Easterly winds are resulting in good coastal convergence, so additional rainfall could occur all the way toward JAX near and east of I-95, but instability will be near zero north of Port Canaveral.
Vort maxes are still on the approach in the mid and upper levels with the heavier rain already occurring despite the fact that this energy and colder air aloft has not yet arrived.

Vorticity arriving. Note that it will base out along the northern extent of the 70F dew-point isothern and cross along the Beach Line where the best helicity will be. This will aid in keeping good isentropic lift type precipitation going north of the warm front. Along the east coast, this lift will be enhanced due to the proximity of warmer ocean waters south of the tip of the CAPE combined with weak instability. As I type, Melbourne is reporting 'Heavy Rain".

The other big question is depending on where the mid level and surface features align, how far north will the heaviest coastal rain get? Guidance is indicating any mid-level convection to make it as far north as KSC with better flat out rain further north. It showed a brief lull in the activity early this morning as a ripple in the 700mb flow might be creating the rains currently occurring, but as the main mid-upper level trough approaches, this area lifts further north toward KSC to the beach line and west toward MCO (Orlando) with the best convergence at the beaches over the Barrier Islands of Brevard from 10am-2pm.

FURTHER SOUTH: It appears the rain has ended for South Florida for the time being, perhaps being 'capped' by warm air aloft over running an otherwise more unstable atmosphere. Whether any storms will impact this area later is a bit questionable, dependent on where the surface low develops, or more appropriately the low just above the surface. If it forms offshore, the resultant pseudo-cold frontal trough will form off shore, and this area will already by behind the front, thus...very little more rain. On the other hand, if the warm front turns into a cold front (rather than a front forming along the Gulf Stream), then South Florida could have another round of heavier rain and thunder after 3pm until around 6pm. South Florida will need to be monitored during the course of the afternoon to see how things evolve for their second shot of rainfall.

IT'S HALLOWEEN, WHEN DOES IT END?: Looks like rainfall will taper off and end with the setting sun everywhere, with some light rain possibly continuing from time to time until 8pm near the coast somewhere from Brevard to Miami contingent upon where the surface low strengthens to the east of the coastline (and back wash moisture wraps around the north side of it)...This day is standing up to its "Trick or Treating" by Mother Nature reputation. A rotating storm passed off shore north of the Port (Canaveral) on this day in 1997.

BEYOND: Briefly, continued NE winds rule the roost with another frontal boundary to cross near Friday but have no impacts but to enhance NE flow once it passes. Coastal showers (sprinkles) possible by Wednesday. There are TWO opportunities setting up for a Nor'easter like set up along the SE U.S> coast in the first 10 days of November which would be mainly an erosion issue, but the details are yet to be ironed out.