Thundersday Storms Possible North/Central

Thunder in Orange Most Likely possible areas today with isolated strong to severe 'warned' activity. Expect most of the strongest activity to be North Florida with a secondary area between Palm Bay north to DAB after 4:30pm through 8pm time frame, as well as interior Osceola County and parts of Orange. 

TODAY: Large upper level trough  across the Country's Mid-Section toward the Great Lakes region tonight into Tomorrow will draw deep tropical moisture northward in advance, and in fact as can be seen above the atmosphere is already beginning to respond in the SE Gulf by the high clouds lifting northward.


For today, east coast sea breeze has already begun along A1A to US 1 from MLB and north and would expect it to reach as far as near 95 at least. The caveat for areas across Central is the higher clouds seen above encroaching on the southern most area of interesting south of the Beach Line.  Should they make a continued rapid approach, the storm chances dwindle to very low.. But, outside of that caveat, the region from the Volusia/Brevard County line   -Kissimmee south along the FL Turnpike to Central Osceola County and east to Sebastian bears watching for several rounds of storms and/or showers from mid afternoon through mid-late evening.  The advancing west coast sea breeze is clearly visible in the image above, and expect it will get active especially as the east coast sea breeze approaches on its very eastward advance.  Given the sea breeze is in place, and models were mostly not showing this to occur or if so..quite side shore..some storms could be severe near I-95 to US-1 despite what models are showing (not) and the coast depending on how late they form and how far north the cirrus clouds have worked up the peninsula.


Temperatures aloft seem to be warming which would make sense given the tropical like nature and origin of that moisture, so weather the storms will reach severe category is questionable too, especially south of I-4. Main threat seems to be sub - severe winds.  The main state of affairs appears will be slow moving localized heavy rain storms with some lightning, but out flow boundary mergers with the sea breezes could get things 'rocking well'.


Freitag: Rain could begin pre-sunrise or re-form prior to dawn somewhere over the South Half of the state. For the most part, Friday does not look a thunderstorm day predominantly as much as a cloudy and rain day, except toward the Sarasota to   Tampa area, or somewhere along the west coast. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises sums up Friday for 'Somewhere across Central Florida trying to reach the east coast', but not thinking at this point that any real thunder activity will quite get there except toward DAB...and perhaps far South Florida. The issue here being lack of stability due to predominant cloud cover.


BEYOND: Saturday through Tuesday looks much nicer with very low rain chances and very warm to hot afternoons under a long fetched land based NW flow..it is in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame through at least Friday or Saturday that good storm chances enter the picture again working from NW to SE ..further into South Florida as well by Thursday. Storms could be strong to severe on those days as things look now with colder air aloft as moisture from Remains of the Plains Moisture comes in from the WNW-NW.

Sketchtimated Chance of "Isolated Thunder " Later Today

Rough sketchtimate of 'potential' thunder chances today and quick rain dashes in green, perhaps thunder MIA metro area.

TODAY: Remains and wet ashes of Beryl will be heading toward the proverbial  burial at sea in the Western Atlantic tonight off the coast of North Carolina and eject rapidly ENE to NE ward into the Northern Atlantic and eventually becoming absorbed into a large trough with the net result being potential wet impacts to Northern Europe in about 6 days.


Meanwhile, back at the farm.  Another day of queries prevails. It appears a long lasting remnant boundary reflection dragging along the high-jaded heels of Beryl is draped across North Central where some showers and some lightning strikes occurred earlier toward West Florida north of TPA, but with daytime heating and drier air resulting the showers have been weakening the moment they get started. Much drier air resides over all of South Florida, although latest RUC guidance indicates some additional moisture 'could be waiting in the wings' to move in later today from the WNW..  The next questionable factor comes regarding a 'trigger' to set activity off in the first place. With low moisture aloft and little in Lake/Sea Breeze interactions due to the fairly healthy WSW surface gradient these simply cannot interact.  


Guidance does indicate a potential sea breeze probably getting no more than 1 mile inland from JAX to West Palm though by mid-late afternoon. As of 1:30pm the west wind seems to have lowered at the beach in my location.  This will be a major factor in determining if indeed ANY storms can form today worth noting. Skies are a bit hazy today for much of the state. This was noted to be in residence over the Gulf a few days ago, and hence, "Behold the haze whence forth it cometh! " Not sure what the origins are from, either Mexico or the Desert SW region.


The next difficulty comes with regards to the RUC ?NAM/ and GFS models are showing (who'd we leave out?) Current indications are that East Central from the Cape south toward Vero Beach will be the key area to watch today for thunder, with showers possible as far south as Miami where thunder could occur although not noted in the image and near West Palm on the South Side of the Lake Shadow...then too the Ft. Pierce to Vero area could see a storm from that factor alone.


RUC meso-analysis shows factors complimentary to even severe storms in the far Eastern Gulf once they swing eastward by mid-late afternoon across Florida, but whether those parameters are even Real is the big question because much of the late day forecast hinges on some semblance of them  reaching and across the state later today.  One last 'Big If', is that two models do indeed show a late day sea breeze after 5pm, but it appears that it could be due to outflow from 'mere' showers having already moved offshore. Thus the quandary.  


Lastly, other factors would dictate that any stronger if possible activity will not occur until quickly after 5pm through sunset somewhere from Ft Pierce north to Titusville with a potential isolated storm near Ormond/St Augustine area. But if showers occur any earlier, the atmosphere will have been stabilized negative that potential.


THURSDAY: Better chance of stronger storms, but suspect that some of the same dilemmas will be in place. One added bonus will be increasing upper level winds aiding lift though, and a better chance of a sea breeze since by that time any boundaries from Post-Beryl-mortem  will be out of the picture almost entirely. Additionally, a disturbance which will be triggering severe weather in Oklahoma Today could be over the area by later tomorrow ('could' , that is).  


FRIDAY: With a developing negatively tilted upper level trough kicking through the deep south and lifting NNE ward, wide spread severe weather for parts of the Mid Atlantic Region, the Deep South and Eastern Appalachians as far north as Pennsylvania to include all of the TVA Employees of Yore. Over Florida, the approach of that trough in such fashion will draw deep Tropical Moisture northward and across at least the Southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the state. Moisture ain't everything though, since it appears most of it will be mid-upper level moisture, thus, rain showers seem to be the game at play or perhaps merely cloudy conditions all day Friday for the South Half of the state. Depending on the depth of moisture though, a gradient/boundary could set up from the sunnier portions of the state to the north, making for an area somewhere across Central more favorable for storms 50 miles either side of the CFDL (Central Florida Dividing Line for purposes of posts running from Canaveral along 528 to Orlando and then along I-4 to Tampa.


BEYOND?: Could be 3 days of much more isolated if any activity and very warm afternoons with late day sea breeze near the coast.  

Stronger Storms 'Possible' East Coast Once Again

Visible Satellite Image at 10AM shows Beryl Barreling NEward  over SE Georgia. Otherwise,
vorticity lobe and mid-level boundary producing heavy or moderate rain in some locations north of I-$ with thunder coming in near the lower Big Bend this morning.
 

“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”


TODAY: Similar to yesterday, but much of the weather for Brevard and north depends on how long high level clouds seen in this image persist. They could fade away within the next 2 hours or so; therefore, most areas have a chance of seeing a storm today within the orange zones. In purple is where it seems possible an isolated stronger storm due to winds and non-severe sized hail could occur, although just possibly severe category winds could occur in the red zone to purple east of I-95, and maybe in NE Florida where wind fields are more favorable for rotation, although instability there is greatly lacking this morning . For information, there was one official severe wind report in a gust on a tower at Playalinda Beach yesterday (the storm looked great on radar), and a weak EF0 tornado in St. Lucie county damaging two homes according to the report I had seen. This would have likely been a result of the lake breeze/shadow meeting the east coast sea breeze.


Just to throw this out there, it is possible that a boundary could set up just south of the heaviest cirrus cloud coverage across North Central (somewhere), which would again like yesterday result in training of thunder and rain-showers, anywhere from Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/Melbourne to Northern Volusia County in the DAB area. Reasoning being that rain cooled air vs. day time heated air mass would create the thermal and instability gradient along with elongated vorticity draping south and westward from Beryl which is showing up in SOME of the guidance across Central Florida. As Beryl lifts north so too will things change throughout the day in regard to the impacts/effects Beryl has mainly on Central and North Florida. 


Thus, a shifting OUT rather than an arriving weather makes the forecast today especially tricky.  Latest Water Vapor and forecast model guidance shows pronounced drying in the mid levels from North Central Brevard county and across the state toward Sarasota southward to Dade County. Thus, the region over  Far South Central and much of Southern Florida is another trick to deal with. Should isolated storms along the sea breeze ANYWHERE along the zone really from Brevard to Martin County manage to manifest, especially on the northern or southern periphery of the Lake Shadow a severe storm producing strong winds and possible waterspout/tornado , small hail could occur (weak).  


Activity is expected to begin soonest (other than what is now occurring) over South Florida where instability is mounting quickly under sunny skies as sea breezes  commence, all under a bit of the jet stream.  Otherwise, winds along the immediate coast should become side shore and strengthen after 2pm as peak heating of the day approaches up and down the interior sections of the south half of the state . Thus, any activity could become a threat factor for marine interests and residents along the east coast after 2pm - 5pm in particular, with activity lingering toward the east coast until about an hour or so after dark.


BEYOND: Wednesday a sea breeze is not expected, but other factors in place could again result in showers/thunders, but not as wide spread. It is possible another nocturnal boundary will set up overnight (tonight) with rain and thunder across South Central or Central, but that is pure conjecture at this point.


Storms and showers will be in the forecast through Friday but it appears by that day we will be watching mainly South Central and South Florida the closer to the weekend we get. Sometime around Sunday more to watch south and South Central, although moisture content is showing more than ample, it might end up being mainly high clouds and not rain, with isolated activity further north. Time will tell.

Possibility of Strong Storms Today East Central as Beryl Meanders

See graphic text. Otherwise, Beryl is losing storm status today with most Tropical Storm related reports coming from Duval County in the JAX area last night. The storm is drifting toward the W-WNW since early day, and guidance shows similar motion toward sunset. See the Hurricane Center website for details. 

Sampling of observations on Beryl around 3AM:

MAYPORT NAS    LGT RAIN  73  68  84 SE32G48   29.54R  
JACKSONVILLE   CLOUDY    73  72  96 E23G35    29.51R FOG  
JAX NAS        CLOUDY    75  72  90 SE9       29.46R  
JAX CRAIG      CLOUDY    73  71  93 SE21G31   29.50R  
JAX CECIL      RAIN      72  72 100 NW14G24   29.45F VSB 1

29.45 Inches of Mercury into Millibars 

Result: 997.28, although not the lowest pressure for the storm

  I have no idea how high up these mesonet towers are: 

1110 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 W MAYPORT             30.38N 81.48W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED FROM THE NNE AT 47 MPH WITH  
            GUSTS TO 62 MPH.

1037 PM     TROPICAL STORM   6 NNW MANDARIN          30.23N 81.68W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   ASOS  
  
            A 65 MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED AT THE JACKSONVILLE NAVAL  
            AIR STATION.

  
0920 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NW FORT CAROLINE      30.43N 81.53W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   BROADCAST MEDIA  
  
            LOCAL TV STATION REPORTS ROOF OFF A HOUSE ON HECKSHER  
            DRIVE.

  
1035 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 N MAYPORT             30.40N 81.41W  
05/27/2012                   DUVAL              FL   MESONET  
  
            SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WERE  
            RECORDED AT HUGUENOT PARK

OTHERWISE: As noted in the title, strong to potentially briefly severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly from Volusia County and South as noted in the graphic. 

Winds along the coast are expected to become more southerly to side shore or nearly so, which will aid in low level helicity east of I-95. Additionally, there is a chance of some better low level wind shear  (albeit very weak) north of MLB toward DAB along the southern fringes of Beryl's mean circulation pattern as well as a CAPE (convective instability) gradient setting up near the Brevard/Volusia Line or a bit further north right at those cross-hairs. 


Thus, where ever that gradient sets up could be where at least one option for a strong/severe storm, perhaps two with one even further north than DAB. The other favored area would be along the Lake Shadow Gradient which should set up near South Brevard to Vero Beach zone. A stronger storm with hail could set up in Western or Central Dade/Broward Area as well.

There is a chance of a brief landspout tornado or waterspout mainly east of I-95 or a waterspout offshore Brevard or Southern Volusia, and a funnel cloud could also be observed from northeastern Osceola County to the coast as far south as Palm Bay. Hail is also possible , potentially near severe category size of 1 inch..but if so, very very isolated as today's unfolding will be in any case.

Activity expected to commence after the morning convective temperature of 83F is broken, thus, could be as soon as 1:30pm - 2:30pm and to continue in various locations and various times noted in the image above through sunset with one or two storms near or approaching the coast after 6pm, most likely south of MLB toward Sebastian and Vero Beach.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: With 'Beryl remains' lifting toward the ENE out and away cloud cover will be appeased, and more statewide chances of storms both days, with strongest activity east 1/2 of state (in general). Locations and degree of strength of storms each day will be as always in question. The 

storm could begin to interact with the Atlantic on Wednesday and begin to 

emerge offshore the coast of North Carolina, but by that time would be 

becoming Extra-Tropical.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Chances are a weak disturbance will eject northward from Western of Central Cuba as is being noted which will impact coastal areas of far south Florida, but details, if even so, remain too sketchy to elaborate upon this morning given the time between now and then, anything could 

change. Out of interests sake, this day could be a big severe weather makes for much of Northern Alabama and Georgia northward to the eastern Great 

Lakes region and eastward to Southern Pennsylvania...(Friday time frame) 

EVENTUALLY: A frontal boundary and lowering atmospheric moisture by 

Sunday or Monday state wide (possibly) with a more westerly flow, the ridge axis at the mid levels being near the Florida straits, could set up for that hot spell mentioned a few posts ago early next week.

Florida SE Georgia to Get Sub-Tropical Storm" Beryl'd "

“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information such as the National Hurricane Center and MIA/MLB/JAX Local Forecast Offices for this 'event' ”

TODAY: As most of you reading this post already know, Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move toward the Florida/Georgia Border today. Guidance indicates the exact Center of the circulation or 'pseudo-eye' to make landfall just north of Downtown JAX toward the GA Border around 7:30-8:30pm tonight. The above image annotations are based on latest GFS Guidance and a bit of the latest Rapid Refresh guidance. It should be noted that neither model shows directly at the surface winds of sustained storm force except toward the far SE South Carolina Coast toward all of the Georgia Coast, it is the winds at 2000 ft, that guidance and satellite derived wind speeds show sustained 40-45kts (50mph), which could easily be brought to ground level in rainstorms. Do note that the color scheme in this post is much smaller for the entire area under the official tropical storm warning. Beryl is currently moving over the warmest ocean waters associated with the Gulf Stream, so further intensification after 2pm seems unlikely. We'll see what the next 2 official bulletin releases will relay to the masses from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) in that regard.


The extended track of Beryl per the GFS, which has been consistent, weakens Beryl during the early hours of  Monday after the entire circulation is fully on land, as the center works toward Tallahassee. It then continues to weaken and slowly responds to lowering mid-upper level 'height falls' ('troffing'), getting lifted out toward the ENE-NE, later on Monday. 

Sunrise visible satellite image with blog
 guess track through Wednesday

Thus, the heaviest rainfall totals all in all directly related to Beryl should be along I-10 near and in the TLH forecast area. The latest GFS takes Beryl , now a sub-tropical depression toward the coast of South Carolina and then it becomes absorbed into a developing trough and frontal boundary, quickly becoming Extra-Tropical by Wednesday. The jury is still out on this portion of the track through. Should Beryl move offshore sooner to the south and east, re-intensification could occur. Either way, it becomes Extra-tropical, named or not named.


AND NOW, THE REST OF THE STORY: 
In regard to the remainder of the state, rain chances will persist through Thursday or Friday, possibly Saturday far South Florida. Here is a quick summation of each days' potential TYPE OF WEATHER outside of the Beryl Zone and into the Monkees in a Barrel for starter wags.


TODAY: "Another Pleasant Valley Sunday, in Status Symbol Land". Chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning near noon along the east coast from Brevard and North, expanding with day time heating. It could actually be HOT today with west to WSW winds and moisture only truly creeping toward the west side of the state through late afternoon. Winds becoming more southerly toward South Florida outside of the circulation of Beryl. A weak trough could form extending from the 2000 mb low from JAX SSW toward Orlando and SW Florida with storms forming EAST of that trough. Best chance of storms seems to be Eastern South Central and South toward Miami, with a potential secondary area over Brevard along the southern fringes of the actual Beryl Circulation. Things change though ...as a prelim. heads up in the meantime.

ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGE. Storm flair ups now
 as Beryl crosses warmest waters

The GFS has been very consistent with showing the largest rainfall totals outside of Beryl to be over the Barrier islands of Brevard due to early chances, and what appears to be back building of activity trying to exit the east coast into late evening at least.  


Additionally, the deepest moisture (precipitable water values) of 2.00" plus are expected to be contained from north and/or Central Brevard and north by sunse within the storm's actual circulation. Whether that activity will remain a hair-line fracture just offshore from Volusia through Brevard will have to be seen, as it is a very close call. So far, the past 6 runs of the GFS has shown only Brevard 'east of and along US1' to get in on the rain action as of the 2AM GFS run. Otherwise, stronger storms near SE Florida for Dade, Broward, and parts of Palm Beach Counties, but more of diurnal nature.


Rain chances continue past midnight , mainly east side of state Central and North Central into the "Storm Zone along and near I-10" .  Another point to make is that a some time between tonight and Tuesday an area could be 'dry slotted', meaning having little to no chance of getting rain, somewhere between Central and South Central more than likely, but just exactly where or even if so is  the proverbial "TBD". 


MONDAY/TUESDAY: Beryl weakening and on the way out, with diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity working toward the east coast during the mid-late afternoon hours. Essentially, these days will be like a summer day favoring the east side of the state. Winds mainly from the south to SSE (at the beach), at normal strength of any given summer day, not a big deal. Stronger winds in and near thunderstorms.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/(FRIDAY): Chance of stronger to near Severe in isolated cases East Side of the state, especially north of Vero Beach as the heights aloft at the 500mb level (millibars or near 20,000 feet above ground) continue to fall and temperatures aloft get cold as Beryl has by now departed. Stronger winds aloft pull into station as well, whereas prior to late Wednesday they are pretty much non-existent.  Thus, on one of more of these days residents could get Barreled by strong winds and small hail due to stronger winds and colder air aloft. Wednesday has been a 'clincher'  "So Far that is" for several model runs now due to a departing 'pseudo-frontal trough' extending southward from Beryl across North and Central Florida.


Otherwise, yes, even South Florida gets in on the action with stronger storm chances as well. 


Thursday, looks like an even better chance of sea breeze convergence, cold air aloft type storms state wide once again, with many areas getting rain.


In regard to day time highs. Today should be the warmest afternoon of all, as temps go. That being, once the moisture associated with the weather system is in place, afternoon and late morning cumulus clouds could form and hold temperatures down a bit. Although, that too could be in questionable. If the latest info I see showing high Lifted Condensation levels materializes, cumulus could be 'put off' to much extent until after 2-3pm, in time for day time heating. In short though, highs won't be beyond normal, and nothing like the 100F degrees at Tallahassee and upper  to mid 90Fs experienced as far south as Tampa yesterday afternoon.  


 SATURDAY: Cold front clears all but possibly South Florida for a last go around of storms there, otherwise...high pressure builds in across the SE States and a dry period ensues...with comfortable temperatures.

Chance of Strong Storms Along Rt 27 to I75 Later Today

Weak circulation is evident on Miami Radar near Key Biscayne, part of a much larger elongated trough in the mid-levels across far SE Florida. Other wise, some mdt-heavy rains already occurring near to over previously flooded areas from Tuesday near MIA, with some thunder possible most likely where there is YELLOW and further to the west with time by late afternoon. Another area of thunder could develop toward Ft. Pierce (or heavier rain) tonight.  

TODAY: Show finally getting on the road as long advertised by all model guidance in regard to low pressure formation near SE Florida. Hence begins the "Big Guessing Game" through the weekend into early next week. As such, will not elaborate too in-depth on what this, that, and the other model suggests will occur since they each vary from run to run  sometimes coming to agreement and other times diverging wildly. Overall, agreement has been SO FAR for a surface low to develop more notably later today near West Palm which then moves offshore toward the ENE-NE through Saturday before running into strong high pressure to the north, with a low center just off the Carolinas. From that point, the low retrogrades back SW ward toward the Florida NE Coast between Cape Canaveral - JAX with the latest runs showing the more northern point of JAX by Sunrise Sunday.


Otherwise, a good east coast sea breeze should establish late today , esp. toward the Cape and into mid-evening along the north side of the area of low pressure to the south. At the  same time, a strong jet Streak of over 80 kts is forecast across South Central, placing Central in the right entrance and divergence aloft region which net results provides for rising motion. It appears that if parameters add up just right, some heavier storms could occur along the east coast toward or south of Vero Beach. This will only be dispelled as a precautionary measure at this conjecture since guidance is not pointing at rainfall in those areas at the time of this writing.


As of 10:15AM, the Hurricane Center was giving the storm at 20% chance of development within the next 24 hours, but surface forecasts and LDIS plots are showing tropical storm force winds already well east of the center. It should be noted though that these are from a pressure gradient due to the squeeze with high pressure to the east and not due to the depth of low pressure currently in place. In fact, for most of the life cycle of this system the storm force winds that are forecast with the low are to remain above ground level, with 'storm force gusts' in downdrafts from heavier rain and thunderstorm activity. Either way, would not at all surprise me if it is named Beryl if not over night tonight then by later Friday.

To note, there is much discussion regarding whether the system will be "named" tropically, although current implications are that either way makes not a difference, but implications are the storm could take on a very tropical presentation on radar and satellite imagery, although technically at best it appears it will be sub-tropical in nature due to continuous cold air entrainment (or filtering/drawing inward) aloft of cold air between 700-500 millibar heights (10-20,000 feet aloft). If so, it would not be a  truly warm core  low/system through the entire mid-levels of the atmosphere. 


Latest GFS implies the surface low could be 'chasing' a cold pool aloft as it returns toward Florida on Saturday into Sunday. This makes future casts more difficult in regard to severe thunderstorm potential toward the east side of the state by Sunday/Monday afternoon given the latest agreed up track of the system. But, much more to be determined through the next 48 hours in regard to strength and track of the surface low, for IF the system is named, this will mean we will be hearing about "Beryl" or "Tedious Remnant Beryl" for at least a few days into early next week. 


Perhaps the greatest impacts to Florida will be not as the low moves back into Florida (assuming it does) but AFTER it does so. Deep Cyclonic Flow around the system will drag deep moisture from the Caribbean northward on its East to SE flanks, with the low eventually ending up toward the Western Florida Panhandle and slowing down for a few days, before potentially being picked up by another low pressure trough approaching from the Central Plains.


EXTENDED: Under the assumptions of all of the above, we could be in for a repeat performance of a few weeks ago. Suggestions are that one way or the other regardless of what the system does, that this will be the case. That being, a deeper upper level trough situated along to east of the Mississippi River Valley Basin putting Florida in SW Florida aloft. This could me for some hot days ahead the last few days of May and the first week of June with storm chances in the cards each day. 

Hairline Fractional Chance of a Severe Storm Through Mid-Evening East Coast

Very very small chance of a Strong to Severe storm near the East coast after 5:30pm through 9pm. Better chances along the panhandle. One warning has already been issued toward Ft Pierce/Vero Beach areas earlier this afternoon

TODAY: Tough call today, but wanted to throw something out there. Very warm inland with highs running in the lower 90Fs this 3:30pm hour. East coast sea breeze has worked west of I95 but would not expect it to make in as far west as downtown Orlando but could be close. As can be seen above by lack of clouds, Central is moisture starved except east of I95. In fact, moisture plots of surface relative humidity almost (stressed) looks like a Texas Dryline, just to stretch it a bit, with moisture to the east, and very dry to the west where the warmest temperatures are occurring. Otherwise, surface data is showing the best mixing ratios and greatest SURFACE INSTABILITY to be advecting onto Far East Central, but in the middle levels where the dry air exists there is little to zero instability.


The question becomes, "Can enough moisture and instability build up into the mid-levels of the atmosphere while upper level divergence and some energy approaches from the west by early evening?". Additionally, one severe warned storm has already formed toward Vero Beach, with an outflow boundary initiating another showers further north toward Sebastian Inlet, but that storm formed as a result of entirely different mechanisms as to what could occur later today. Should those showers  over eastern South Central send out additional north bound out flow boundaries (or even one further north)...that could linger un-noticed until around 7pm well after peak heating. Expect the east coast toward Cape Canaveral could end up with a hefty sea-breeze after 5pm up river, perhaps along both river ways as well toward Southern Volusia.   Storms (a storm or two) could (stressed) go up. But only one or two if any is anticipated and if so, could easily become severe.   Will also need to watch for a south bound propagating storm from near Ormond Beach toward the North Brevard County Border toward Sanford after 6pm. Overall though, the chances of any of these scenarios panning out looks quite small. Things change quickly  though after 6pm, so never say never.


Otherwise, over South Florida a mesoscale convective discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for possible stronger storms. If so, Looks like mainly Dade County due to that much of the area is being worked over already by early afternoon activity.  Could be a linger shower or two toward SW Florida well after dark, or almost anywhere really, but too isolated to try to pin down exactly where.


WEDNESDAY: Moisture from South Florida works further north, with a chance of showers and Storms from near Melbourne and South, with a secondary area perhaps further north toward St. Augustine. Each successive day gets a bit more difficult to pin down due to developments in the tropics near eastern Cuba in model guidance.


The GFS and previous ECMWF forecast a vorticity max to swing by South Florida toward the end of the week, that  does an about face north of the Bahamas only to cross Central coming toward Sunday. This is way out to far in the future to put any level of confidence on, although the EcmwF has shown 'some version' of that scenario for two runs now, and the GFS just joined in with that this morning. The GFS is showing what looks like a subtropical low centered right over Brevard by Monday.


OTHERWISE: The NAM model has been the odd one out , showing severe weather potential going into Thursday as far north as I-4, but none of the models nor official forecast outlets are buying into it.

Pattern Change Commences Tonight - Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

TODAY: Tropical "Storm" Alberto can be seen in upper right hand portion of the visible satellite image. The "Storm" has been moving steadily toward the East to ENE since before daybreak, and moisture is now filtering southward behind int utside the sinking air zone that much of the north half of Florida was in yesterday. Thus, we see the evidence by the cumlus field over NE Florida. Today looks also like that last day for  the South Florida region being the only favorable thunderstorm zone . A shower could occur from North Brevard northward toward dusk, and might need to watch for some thunder although models do not indicate this to occur. 

BLOGGER CREATER FOR this post is malfunctioning today, having problems with writing  from the Blogger web based blog engine as a result.....

TUESDAY: Pattern change contiues now as mid level trough moves in closer toward the state of FLorida,. Winds becoming SW overnight,  a noonish time sea breeze from the SSE to SE could set up and strengthen by mid-late afternoon. Hot inland, with a potential spine of the state heat trough setting up for the northern 2/3 of the state. With Alberto now fully out of the picture, moisture from the south can work back north, and POSSIBLE stack along the east side of the thermal trough, if indeed this does develop and surface winds remain nearly 'side-shore and upriver'. Net result with stronger vertical velocities aided by vorticity moving across the North half of the state in the presence of the mid-level trough, very late afternoon to early evening storms possible toward JAX to Central Brevard. Will need to watch from right moving storms once working perpendicular to the sea breeze. If so, conditions might not be too far off the mark from the last days last week when stronger storms hit this area. Other storms could occur over South Florida, but the dynamics in the wind energy field and colder air aloft, both lacking, would limit the same threat. Overall though, as it stands, it might very well be that only South Florida and the panhandle will see the storms on Tuesday, hence the 'conditional chance' of storms along the East coast as noted in the image. 


BEYOND: Increasing moisture especially by Thursday through the weekend seems to be a consensus at this point. Thus, increasing showers nad thunderstorms, possibly early in the day toward East Central by Thursday as an inverted trough of tropical nature in the low to mid levels attempts to pull together from the Northern Caribbean. Once blogger becomes 'operational' again, and we have a few more model runs by tomorrow, can go into greater detail. As of now, it appears, as noted in earlier posts, we could be running into an early day or noctural showers and thunderstorms east coast and the Atlantic, shifiting inland toward the west coast during the day for starters under deepening but light south to southeast flow. Details remain sketchy. The overnight ECMWF depicted a vort max coming in toward North Central later in the week , next week, from the east, whereas the GFS takes it well out to sea.

If  Thermal spine of the state trough does set up, with increasing mid-upper level winds from the West to WSW and an upriver wind late late afternoon into early evening, strong storms possible from Cocoa Beach Northward mainly east of I95 after 5:30PM. Storms (if any) very isolated, but nonetheless could be strong to severe, particularly across North Brevard County into Southern Volusia and northward. This will need to be 'revisited' after 3 more model runs by this time tomorrow. 

Chance of Strong/Severe Storms Today

Fairly Close model consensus so far this mid-morning with surface 'now' data indicating that a weak surface low could form for reasons described below. East coast sea breeze convergence along or even east of I-95 could, if current thinking
holds fast, result in rotation in a few storms from Saint Augustine
to Central Brevard  

TODAY: Tricky forecast, but waste not want not. So wasting no time to get this post out as a precautionary measure.  Some "scrappy Cu" (cumulus clouds) already forming in thinning early day mid-level clouds over Central and North Florida as sun beams in.  Jet stream level winds across the South Half of the state with agreement that Central Florida will be under the right entrance region  of those winds. Additionally, latest guidance in two models shows a  streak of 20,000 ft. winds at 500 mb (millibars)   streaking right across Central Florida later this afternoon right under the divergent winds aloft . Highest convective instability is forecast to exist from Lake Okeechobee and North, due the result of late night through early morning  rain activity further south where jet stream cirrus clouds continue to run over that Southward Area now and as it looks, the remainder of the day. Meanwhile, surface boundary to sink into North Central today, with latest surface and low level streamline analysis indicating convergence along that boundary increasing during the day, especially along any sea breeze front resulting in stronger upward vertical velocities.

With those factors in mind 1) Divergence aloft 2) strong 500mb wind core 3) instability and finally, the big question mark, 4) an east coast sea breeze which seems most likely north of St. Lucie County, and 5) coldest temperatures aloft from 10000 ft up are from Brevard and North. South Florida might be contending with outflow backlash from early day activity, but things could change down there quickly, as often seems to be the case. Regardless, without a doubt the region further north, as it stands now at least, holds the better chance of severe weather today . So with those factors in mind:

Questionable activity South Florida. More than likely, this region will see some storms today, but all things considered further north those factors seem to pale in comparison until after 7pm tonight. By that time certainly it could all be a different story. Otherwise, North bound we go where from this image alone one can see the skies have cleared with no high clouds coming in from the west off the Gulf of Mexico. 

ADDITIVE FACTOR: Low to mid level helicity values along the coast, especially from Brevard and North are shown to be the most consistent in guidance, with a concerning higher value running from near Southern Volusia toward Cocoa Beach, and again further north toward Ormond Beach give or take 50 miles north/south. Another factor is that latest guidance is showing stronger downdraft CAPE values encroaching in on the entire west side of the state from the Gulf. Downdraft CAPE tends to limit overall coverage, but that which can form , that is to say, can work against the downdraft cape into updrafts, can result in storms that rapidly build vertically, resulting in hail and/or strong downburst winds. Thus the area in red as well. Such downdraft CAPE would also, if it is true to form as a mere 'mortal model' can show, would INHIBIT activity over South Florida already covered in High Clouds.However, guidance is showing rainfall down that way, the type for lightning production. Best best at this point down there would be from Port Charlotte and South inland toward Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades for any potential strong storms,. 

THUS: The purple area would be considered for this post to be a zone to watch for rotating thunderstorms and maybe even a brief waterspout or tornado, especially South of St. Augustine and North of Vero Beach, with a possible highlight north 1/2 of Brevard County east of I-95 closest to the boundary, convergence, instability, divergence, and 500mb wind core (IF IT IN FACT WILL EXIST). Any activity especially after 4:30Pm near the coast (if it manifests) is worth monitoring today, especially for deviant right or left moving activity. Storms or showers could continue in isolated fashion after 9pm. toward midnight.

FRIDAY: With today's "Potential Soap Opera Drama" on the line, tomorrow per the latest NAM model shows yet more, thus today / tonight could fold with... "...To Be Continued".  Today's boundary gets 'locked up' in the quick upper level winds and has a hard time dropping, at least permanently, much further south than Southern Brevard, if even that. Net result is the same sort of set up on Friday only this time from Brevard County and South toward Palm Beach County. See no reason why high clouds again might not be a factor further south, toward Dade County at least. Otherwise, might need to watch mostly inland toward West Central and SW Florida, as winds gain more of an east ward yet light component in higher levels of the atmosphere. 


Beyond Friday is a big TBD, but based on what I'm seeing the previous post looks valid yet still, namely early day activity east side translating toward the interior mid-late afternoon, with activity attempting to migrate back east yet again toward or after sunset through Tuesday. 

Today's Forecast Picture Says But One Word

CLOUDY

Today: One look outside looks not much different than it does from outer space, other than from there the clouds are white; how interesting of a day that would be to see from the ground and be looking up, nothing but a cloudy white as opposed to grey. The trough shown in purple at the surface and into the upper levels makes slow leeway east and south during the next 48 hours. For today, there are some Florida Oranges drawn in to indicate tangerine dreams thunder at best almost anywhere, but two locations seem to have a best shot though not shown here. One being Dead Central interior very late today toward the east coast southward toward Palm Beach County. The other area is the NE Quadrant of the State as far south as Ormond Beach where thunder has already occurred. There is only two storms state wide even at 220pm in the afternoon, and they are on opposite sides of the state and barely moving. Steering remains weak as does heating due to the cloud cover, and with little sign of a surface boundary and so far no apparent easst coast sea breeze (or barely) forcing should be fairly weak and the surface if there is any boundary interactions at all.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Possibly a better chances of storms or rain showers North Central and south of there almost any time, but Thursday and/or Friday might be able to yield a strong storm risk in there. All contingent upon the amount of early morning and overnight Gulf Stream activity which shreds high level clouds across the state when or if they do occur.  The GFS is showing reduced high level cloudiness (moisture) overnight later tonight but that could easily change if more storms generate well to the west of the state. If the day dawns sunny, the chance of rain is better.


BEYOND: Really no change to forecast reasoning from yesterday or days before. Boundary will have worked Southward into South Central or South Florida on Saturday with a deeper easterly (but rather light) flow. This could result in early morning to overnight showers close to the east coast progressing inland during the day. The GFS is consistent that this highly unusual May pattern (which is acting more like the middle to late summer minus the warmer surface temperature) could continue to months end.   That is a big stretch, but the gist is not expecting any astounding or earth shattering changes in the overall pattern from Friday and beyond, although that shalt change in the days ahead.

"Chance?" of Some Strong Thunderstorms Today and Numerous Showers

Image depicts a fairly deep east coast sea breeze could be forming as of 2pm. Storms
over North East Florida seem to have been triggered by higher low level instability combined with a bubble of upper level divergence aloft resulting in an upward vacuum early this afternoon. Otherwise, it appears all of South Florida will begin to 'fire up' in the next 2 hours, if all holds true to form per model guidance due to greater instability in this area as well 

TODAY: A frontal boundary that has been meandering toward the western Florida Panhandle seems to be 'fizzling' a bit, in regard to how well defined it was 2 days ago. Wind fields at all levels below 20,000 ft are 10kts or less, but much stronger higher up. Latest LDIS and guidance shows (and has been showing all day so far) a 'donut hole' of greater stability across Central due to early high level cloudiness that is only now beginning to clear on out. This area remains a bit of "??" this afternoon in regard to 'will storms truly be able to fire there?". It appears that any activity from North Florida as well as South Florida could send outflows into that region, so that storms there will run later in the day after peak heating. 


So, with a bit of hesitation, but owing solely on model guidance consistency (other than one of them), willing to hedge in on the storms gathering momentum in number in the next hour or so (currently it is just after 2:25pm) over North and South Florida , but with the strongest of storms forming after 4:30-5:oopm in the 'questionnable zone' of Central and South Central toward Lake Okeechobee southward into Palm Beach County.  I see why guidance is heding on the East Central Area being 'out' today for storms based on the morning KSC sounding. It's a matter of whether or not it was a small or large area that showed unfavorable storms as well as whether or not those conditions remain there and all of central all day long, which is a big unknown. 


The east coast sea breeze at this hour does not appear to be yet past I-95, and the west coast one has begun as of the last hour per visible satellite image animations. Things can change quickly though, as it has done in the past, with the east coast breeze suddenly gaining momentum after 4pm and pushing well inland.


Otherwise, temperatures aloft are cold enough to result in storms with small hail, and a quick down burst or even microburst of strong winds central, where there is a low level dry layer. ON THE OTHER HAND, that drier layer, should it remain (and at this hour it is shown in short term LDIS, Local Data Integration System as well as the RAP (the new Rapid Refresh model) guidance as a higher Level of Free Convection (LFC) unfavorable for storm formation. 


There are times that activity simply cannot manifest in such an environment until after dark or not at all. Giving the models the benefit of the doubt though, should those factors improve, the best chance of those stronger storms will be along the Sea Breeze merger then back eastward in subsequent outflow / post sea breeze environments toward I95 if not US1 from Brevard County Southward.


Activity it appears will be sapped out early on this evening by 8-9pm, wherever that may happen to be...likely South Central or South Florida.

Red is where some of the higher chance of a pulse strong storm could occur, not to discount anywhere else within the orange zone however.  Again, The region across all of East Central remains just a bit in question, and therefore remains the 'wild card' out, or Ace of Spades for the Strong Storms winner's circle. 

TUESDAY/FRIDAY: Appears that within the time frame of Thursday or Friday the frontal boundary (not shown) remains will work toward Central and become drawn out and possibly dissolve. Much depends on what happens toward the Yucatan Peninsula. 


Guidance has been hinting at low pressure forming in that area with an inverted trough forming northward from it, possibly enhanced by the unstable waters of the Loop Current of the eastern Gulf. Should the frontal boundary latch on to that boundary further southward progression of the front should cease, and equally allow moisture from the Caribbean to converge along it resulting in over night toward early day showers and thunder working westward into the interior and west side later in the day. Much to be resolved in those regards.

Otherwise, although it appears this could be a day by day deal to determine if or if not there is a decent shot at storms each day, at time that appears to be the case. The main factors that would negate such chances would be higher level clouds early in the day which would prevent low level instability to mount up for storm developments. On the otherhand, should a scenario as just described formulate, rain chances will remain in the cards for folks somewhere/sometime well into next week. Much depends on the strength of the front and how far south it penetrates...in other words, who knows.

Surface Boundary could be in this area by Friday with mid level moisture being drawn northward

 

Strong/Severe Storms Possible ..OR....

Red where possible "hot zone" storms could occur today from WNW of Ft. Pierce to the Coast and South into Broward County mainly near and East of Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Lauderdale 

Frontal boundary, very shallow has reached South Central and dissipated.  Mid-Level trough is still to drop south this afternoon. Although there is just enough instability for showers as far north as the Cape, believe any showers to from later today will be along that mid-level trough toward Lake County, if even that.


Otherwise, the region where the boundary at the surface has waned out , is where it got caught up in stacked westerlies, increasing with height. The only down side to the areas shown is this region "could" be on the descending side of an upper level jet streak forecast to cross Central, although model guidance so far do not indicate this to be the case in the precipitation fields. Believe at this point most of Dade and just maybe Southern Broward might eke out on the storms due to forecast warming in the mid-levels, but should a storm punch through that layer they could go gang busters.


Given the forecast vertical helicity, and approaching mid-level lift ahead of the trough to drop through Central, storms could be strong to severe, although 500mb temperatures are not crazy bonker nuts cold, they are sufficient. 


***CAVEAT:**** Due to the lack of any low level boundaries, no forecast triggers in the vorticity fields, and if the RAP and SPC MesoAnalysis guidance is correct, the area in question could dry up in the mid levels to quickly after 330pm, which would discount this chance altogether to very little activity at all. Close monitoring thus will be necessary to either confirm either/or/ situation beyond that time frame. In the meanwhile, certainly some storms could manifest, but it is always possible there will not be ample moisture in place at or just after the time of  peak storm hours if those two  pieces of guidance are correct. Lapse rates that looked tremendous down that way earlier today are not as impressive per latest LDIS/RAP plot from the MLB NWS Office Website. Otherwise,


FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Pleasant and a bit cooler with no rains forecast for the most part except maybe some scant showers south Florida toward the SW Coast.


SUNDAY; Not a significant enough change in guidance to harp on what has already been written here the past two days. Mid level 'warm front' from the trough to pass down the state today lifts back north in response to mid-upper level low pressure across the north Gulf coast region. In doing so, moisture depth increases from south to north. This boundary at the mid-levels should be near Central by mid-afternoon Sunday, with showers reaching as far north as the Cape by near midnight or so Sunday night into Monday. GFS continues to expound a 'shift change', namely that the Brevard Coast area give or take a county could get very wet from post-Sunday Midnight through much of Monday, this will continue to be watched.


MONDAY-THURSDAY: Day by day give or take thunderstorm chances remain in guidance. The GFS and ECMWF appear to pull a cold front through on Thursday, and if so, that will be the end of this pattern on that day after sunset. So far, looks like an early afternoon start to showers and thunder ending after 8pm each evening Monday through Thursday. But, as the story ends, can't count the chickens until they've hatched, otherwise a forecast post for that time frame this far in advance could well be hard-boiled.

Strong Storms "Possible" East of I95 Later This Afternoon

Today's lead off image shows the upper level low over the Desert SW noted yesterday has dropped further south than expected. Meanwhile, in red is shown where the leading edge of upper level winds are estimated to be located earlier today, and in purple where that leading edge is expected to be by late afternoon moving in across the North 1/2 of the state.

TODAY: A front boundary will be entering the NW Panhandle by tonight. Meanwhile, SW flow is expected to increase toward sunset at the surface, but before that time (and here is the clincher of clinchers), the pressure gradient might not be strong enough to offset an east coast sea breeze which would end up pinned close to, if not east of, US 1.  for many locations along the entire east coast before the gradient increases toward sunset. 


Considering also, good surface heating toward the east coast and inland could provide for the added boost of a temperature (thermal) gradient from the cooler near shore waters to provide for a shallow sea breeze to form or upwind river breeze at least along the Brevard barrier islands. Further South, lake shadow wind effect could enhance storms either side (north of south) of the shadow into Palm Beach County or Martin/St Lucie County.  Further north toward JAX, there could also be a sea breeze south toward Northern Ormond Beach. So far, guidance is painting that the area just along or north of I-4 might become 'capped' due to a surge of warmer 850mb air temperatures, although this cannot ever be for certain. For now, the next graphic has made that 'assumption'. Also assumed is "the clincher of clinchers", a sea breeze or side shore component. If this does not form, chances are much lower of anything beyond some storms of generic quality except toward Lake Okeechobee and NE Florida.


Otherwise, although 500mb temperatures are not as cold as two days ago, that aren't far off from yesterday with still cool  at 700mbs. Good surface heating, instability (light -mdt), and some upper level energy to trigger showers and storms, especially after 4pm or so. Whether or not this will be of in the form of rain showers over the interior is difficult to pin point, but the best chance of thunder seems to be within 20 miles of the coast except toward NW Florida and the Panhandle as the front moves in. Conditions appear most favorable for any strong to marginal severe storms that might occur to be after 4:45pm today closest to the coast from the Cape and South due to local affects, and near Jax due to the proximity of the approaching frontal boundary, except near Palm Beach County will it looks like more of a low level wind field boundary happen-chance situation.  Showers and some thunder could continue in very isolated fashion anywhere along the east coast as late as 11pm in random fashion due to remnant out flow boundaries and residual convective instability.

This image shows a guesstimate for showers (green) to stronger storms (lavender) , although the area near JAX/St. Augustine and in the Panhandle could have easily been included for some 'purpling'. Stronger storms near the coast could contain small hail and wind gusts in excess of 50mph, especially after 4:30pm in a few spots under the premise a sea-breeze or side shore wind can form. 

THURSDAY: The Front will glide slowly south over night toward Dead Central by noon time Thursday. At this point, it is becoming just a bit flaky as to how far south and how fast the boundary will continue southward during the first half at least of the afternoon during peak heating. Winds aloft will be paralleling the front, and that factor combined with surfacing heating could slow it down. There is minute indications a weak surface low could try to form near Tampa Bay as well, which would further impede southward progress until after or near sunset. With this in mind, a pre-ump agreement (despite a few model runs showing otherwise) could call for showers or thunder to occur from the Cape south along the east coast on Thursday. Some could be strong as well with colder air aloft, but a seabreeze and thus lack of low level convergence would be a mitigating factor in that regard. Where ever the boundary is stalled or slowly moving will more than likely be the additive factor for stronger activity tomorrow, wherever that might happen to be.

Possible storms on Thursday if low develops. Otherwise, any storms will be relegated a bit further south toward Vero Beach. Some consistency indicates at least showers or something looking like showers no matter
what from the Cape and South

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The boundary will remain toward far South Florida into the Straits Area but the 700mb trough never really clears Central. This COULD end up acting as a future source of storms by early Next Week, surprise surprise...otherwise, shallow depth easterlies could become a bit gusty on Saturday at 18-25mph, especially due the mid afternoon and into the evening.


 As such, showers could re-emerge toward SW Florida on either day, with possibly some light rains South Florida, but clouds seems to be the more prevalent mode south of the mid-level boundary except toward the SW Coast.


SUNDAY/ MONDAY: Upper low shown previously toward the SW U.S. never really clears the SE States but lingers across the Northern Gulf and parts of Florida as anticipated in yesterday's post. 


As noted before  (yesterday) another upper low fills the void from the Northern Plains states which drops SSE into the 'gap', re-enforcing that trough, while a surface low forms toward Coastal Louisiana and lifts another boundary northward, a part of the old surface front and mid-level boundary. Net affect, we could be seeing more thunderstorm chances as soon as overnight Sunday or early Monday near the East Coast south of the Cape, and much more widespread Monday afternoon and potentially for much of next week. After this point, it gets messier and messier in model inconsistency , at least in regard to climatology.

OVER GULF is what WAS the Desert SW Low. Note the trough
swinging southward from the Plain to fall into the same trough and re-enforce it.
Better YET! Look what is forecast then to approach from the west. Do note though,
this could all change by the next model run.

At this point, this is all a tough call. The  extended outlook'd 'pattern' is highly unusual for this time of year. The GFS and another model take it so far as to produce a tropical system over the western Caribbean which drifts north across Cuba in the next 12 days or so, which would be a first in QUITE a number of years this early in the season. If nothing more, the fact that a model (s) is even hinting at the possibility is worth noting at this stage.

More Showers/Thunder Today, Possibly Strong Thursday

Shower and thunder graphic. See note. Some thunder could move off shore South of Brevard toward Ft. Pierce and maybe West Palm Beach. Storms not expected to become strong/severe except maybe Toward Southern Palm Beach County in from the coast toward Ft  Lauderdale/Miami possibly. Temperatures at 500mb not as cold today, but whether or not that will have any bearing on storm strength is hard to say. 700mb remains cool one more day, but that could only mean storms will form quickly but not be strong. Highest instability starts off along the NE Quadrant of state by become state wide by early afternoon.  

TODAY: Another day of widespread showers and thunder possible. The only real difference today from yesterday is that 500mb temperatures might not be as cold as yesterday, although, morning sounding has shown no change from yesterday. Additionally, mixing ratios are not as favorable nor are the lifted condensation levels for solid low level storm bases. All models agree that warming is forecast by early afternoon nearly state wide except far SE Florida. The frontal boundary that worked toward South Central is to lift north and dissipate today, making for another day of outflow boundary, Lake Breeze Boundary, and Sea breeze interactions once again...making it quite difficult to pinpoint exactly where any particularly heavier activity will manifest, at least at this early hour of blog posting.


Here is the current upper level situation. NOTE the location of those 500mb winds today. This will be worth noting in latter portions of the post.

Winds aloft continue weak over the state. Steering will be toward the east again, but all depends on how quickly either the east and/or west coast sea breezes move inland as to how far rainfall will reach the east coast toward late day and early evening. So far, indications are that along the east coast it will begin around 12:30pm, upon which time showers and some thunder forms within the first hour or so afterward along or west of US1 to I-95. Thus, expect most areas on the east side or even 1/2 of state today will end up CLOUDY by late afternoon at a minimum. 

 Again, above is the upper level flow for today high high up there. See the low/trough to the West of Florida by Cali?  This low will gradually be moving east, but now guidance shows it never quite clears Florida through mid-month. Instead, NOTE THE NW CORNER of the image. Another Low is moving in.


The  low toward the NW U.S., now, is forecast to drop in behind the trail left by the first one, and carve a broad upper level trough along and east of the Mississippi in the next week to 10 days. There will be at least two more frontal boundaries to contend with during this process, the first being late Thursday as the one of today dissolves.


WEDNESDAY: Wednesday looks similar to today, but possibly a bit even warmer aloft in the mid-levels. Coverage difficult to ascertain, but expecting something similar to today, with little chance of severe or even strong storms as it stands now. Today will be a good test to see what does occur in the long run though. Never say never when it comes to boundary collisions is the key.


THURSDAY: As we can see, upper level trough and winds aloft now moving in, with a surface front (not shown) moving down the state. Convergence along that boundary, sea breezes, and cold air aloft could make for another day like Monday was only more active along the immediate East Coast. 

Compare image to the one above and note the winds that are stronger are now over the state. Colder aloft as well..but see where the low to the west remains? And see the other Still in the NW States. That one could slowly merge with the southern one carving out a broad path or trough of low pressure east of the Mississippi River going into Next Week. 

THURSDAY:  Possible stronger to severe storms on Thursday from Volusia and South along the east coast ahead of a frontal boundary.


FRIDAY/SUNDAY: Easterly winds manifest, breezy and dry, but with clouds and possible showers toward the Keys and Southern Dade, but pleasant otherwise. Front will be way south, but remain in the mid-levels. In a sense, so far, it could 're-manifest' by Late Sunday..moving back north..with rain south of Volusia along the coast in doing so. 


Monday/Tuesday time frame could be stormy or rainy along the east half of state, with the Latest GFS showing up to 2" of rain if not more in this area. That is a 'new one" though and too far out in time to hold fast on to.


BEYOND: Time will tell, the all in all though is that this pattern for this time of year is fairly rare from my recollections...as the amount of coverage reflects late June, with showers possible toward the third week at various times.