Thunderstorms Occurring Now and into Early Evening

12:45pm Radar and lightning depictions are showing lightning strikes with all activity over the Northern 1/3 of the state. Sea breeze related activity has yet to get started. Drier air now in place across Central will be the make or break question later today as outflows and boundaries from the north could 'dynamically' provide the necessary last ingredient for some stronger storms toward Brevard and Martin/St Lucie/or Indian River County near the Lake/Sea Breeze boundary

TODAY: Continuing to play hopscotch with the fickle mid-level trough and now surface boundary across North Florida with the 700mb trough shown (and forecast to) inch just a bit further South and East today providing for better steering toward the east to Northeast. The factor toward Southern Volusia outside of the predominant steering is whether outflows from current activity will work toward the slightly drier air Central and meet up with the sea breeze front which appears will stick very close to the east coast today east of I-95 or near it.  The situation   raises an eye-brow of contentious curiosity but nothing definitive toward the red areas (namely Brevard), but the most likely of the three appears to be the Everglades area. Areas of rain showers are also possible anywhere but very isolated, as is thunder other than that shown in orange (but very isolated). Coverage looks extensive currently though, and mass amounts of rain cooled air could sink southward from where the current activity exists with no problem for activity to spark continuously southward through late afternoon. The question mark being what happens when drier air is reached? Will it mix out or add fuel?


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The 700mb trough should begin to weaken, as such so does steering as we resume a pattern not unlike the past several days, running the 'day by day basis' of the when and where game once again, but isolated. Most assuredly North Florida though as the moisture ribbon works toward Central appears to be the most likely zone, thinning out along the way.

Radar superimposed with the 700mb (10,000 foot above ground level) features shows dry air all of Central South 

MEANWHILE: The ECMWF model shows at least two disturbances (and has been for two days) to roll westward along the Southern Atlantic, first toward the Puerto Rico region toward Florida but that 'track' of this wave changes. The more pronounced item is still further to the east yet still half way to Africa at least. One shown to stay south, with the later shown to curve more WNW-NW with time in the general direction of the SE U.S. We should be hearing about both of these for the next week to 10 tens (and possibly yet another) in some form or another, with a 'storm name' possibly emerging in the next 4-7 days.