Chance of a Few Stronger Storms Today SW Florida and Parts of Central

TODAY: Inverted trough swept across Florida yesterday from east to west and is now position diagonally west of the state for the most part and will remain so over the next two days; also a broad but weak cyclonic circulation over mostly the Northern 2/3rds of the state in Georgia is in place meaning SW-W winds aloft. A ridge axis will be located from near Lake Okeechobee toward Direct Central as time goes by toward Sunday and especially Monday. With winds aloft being weak regardless, this will allow all the west and east coast sea breezes to operate with slightly colder air aloft than was present for the past 10 days. Mixing ratios are more favorable today for storms to form without mixing out (if the RAP model guidance is correct). Under the assumption of HRRR model and GFS model trends are realized is upon which this post is based mostly

 

 ABOVE: Image is showing only a small part of the trough (red) which extends actually well to the SW into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is across South Central with westerly winds between those two features in the steering level altitude for storms, though very light. Storms could drift over Central toward the East around 5-10 miles per hour outside of any storms that could form along boundary interactions. Most instability is over South Florida however, so suspect the strongest storms outside of fluke outflow/sea breeze boundary interaction will be along the west coast sea breeze south of Sarasota toward Ft Meyers.

BEYOND: Each day will be a take as it comes contingent on pre-existing late morning conditions and the extent of remnant cloud coverage from the previous day. Some drying out appears to be in order though by Monday as storms will trend more toward the interior and away from the coasts by Sunday, with less coverage.