"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Potential For "Overnight Warm Up" Along A1A Tonight

 The end of the coldest days of the 2020-21 Winter Season so far are drawing to an end after yet another 'cold' day today and again tomorrow morning (mainly inland and toward the West Side of the State). NNW to N winds during the day today will keep it quite cool (well below normal); however, winds are expected to become more N-NNE-NE overnight tonight, mainly right at the beaches (mostly from near The Cape and South). 

Most guidance is hinting at at WARM UP after midnight at some point between 2AM-5AM along the outermost barrier islands of Brevard (along A1A strip) southward toward Southeast Florida and around to the Keys -- that is to say, what I'd consider to be 'often the Warmest Location in the Entire Country' on some winter (and fall) mornings. Yes, the warmest location in the entire country is fairly often the Barrier Islands of Brevard and south through The Keys, and by tomorrow morning we might have one of those cases.

Though temperatures might fall toward dark I'm thinking they will level off in these locations and then even begin to rise slowly at some point after midnight. Thus, for those especially along and even East of A1A you might find warmer temperatures at 5AM tomorrow morning than what it will be at say 8-10PM tonight by as much as as 5-10F degrees (!). 

We will see. 

Along with any warming will be cloud cover as well. The Latest HRRR implies we could see some High Cirrus (rather dense) begin to stream overhead during the night which alone could stop or slow down temperature falls, but then we could see some patches of low cloud advect onshore as well. As you can see , there is PLENTY of low clouds just off shore the Florida East Coast as of NOON TIME this Saturday afternoon, as shown in this Noon time visible Satellite Image below.

SUNDAY: Apart from the 'potential' overnight warming discussed above, it will warm up anyway after sunrise (well into the mid-upper 60Fs) tomorrow, depending on overall cloud cover (though). Too many clouds would keep a better warm up at bay. Regardless, after Sunday morning the cold spell is OVER at long last for several days to come.

MONDAY: And that is not the end of it for the east coast. Latest 4KM NAM shows continued 'surging' of warmer air to encroach on the East Coast overnight Sunday evening into Monday Morning. Yes, Monday Morning along the east coast could well be in the mid-60Fs south of the Cape right at the beaches, or at least in the lower 60Fs. A 20F degree warm up from Friday and Saturday mornings...that is going into Early Tuesday.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Normal to a bit above 'normal' temperatures as we warm up. Looks like a chance of Rain Showers could occur mainly along The Treasure Coast (Vero Beach toward West Palm Beach area) however sometime going into Sunday night and/or Monday, but Brevard looks to stay dry at this point.

NEW YEAR'S EVE - DAY: Thursday Night Midnight is New Year's Eve Night going into 2021. At current time the GFS model has a cold front stretched North/South Down the state of Florida on this Very Night. Timing this far out is questionable, so at this point it's 'the general idea'. It appears there 'might' be again the 'risk' or 'threat' of severe weather with this frontal boundary (mainly due to strong wind gusts). The model is showing a better chance of RAINfall though (at this point) than it ever did with the previous front.  So the overall gist is, NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT, especially after 9PM could become increasingly risking of rain chances, even storms - and be quite breezy - But at least it won't be cold (!) will be a WARM EVENING if the front holds off until after midnight, at least if one lives east of I95.

NEW YEAR's DAY: Latest Guidance has really slowed down on the timing of this next front AND held back on 'Temperature Impacts' from it as well. Actually, it shows the front not making a 'clean passage' across the state until well into the afternoon on New Year's Day - this leaves a lot up in the air (therefore) as to when exactly cloud cover and/or rain chances will end (if not begin even as well) during the time frame from Sunset New Year's Eve to Sunset New Year's Day.

 That entire Day, therefore, is still one big Question Mark in regard to Rain chances and as such temperatures as well. It looks certain at this point that New Year's Day will not be a cold day, but rather see temperatures in the Lower 70Fs (at this point).

FOLLOWING NEW YEAR'S DAY: No Big COLD Spell. Temperatures look now to be generally around 'normal' to a tad below with the next front is about it. Lows at the beach perhaps in the lower 50Fs and bit colder inland, with highs in the upper 60Fs, lower 70Fs with one Big Caveat. The GFS is showing a Very Sudden Change to occur just off the Florida East Coast overnight Sunday with a Coastal Trough forming into a Closed Low that gets quite potent. 

Rain chances near the coast pick up and winds make a rapid shift to the north...all within a 12 hour window. This Time Frame bears watching - looks very   'skeptical' at this point to me - regardless, it has been rather consistent in the attempt to pick up that 'something' might go on during this time frame which bears watching.

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