The weather lately (especially inland) has been warm to unusually hot, but rainfall overall has been lacking other than in parts of South and South Central Florida. No, it hasn't been completely dry by any means, but coverage for the most part has been pretty meager. Additionally, we have been toying with at to near record high temperatures (mainly inland) for several days now, and today and tomorrow will be no different.
The bigger story (which we don't usually hear anything about) is that overall precipitable water values are at to just above 2.00" over South Florida (mainly) and those values will work there way north through North Central Florida somewhat on Monday but more so on Tuesday and even more from Wednesday onward. For comparison, in the winter these values are often less that 0.5" , and even much lower than that at times.
With increased moisture comes increased rain chances and cloud coverage. With increasing clouds afternoon high temperatures will 'cool' a bit, but morning low temperatures will be muggy to even warm at times, especially along the immediate coast.
Though some storms could be strong where multiple boundary collisions occur late in the day, temperatures aloft will not be all that cold, so the biggest 'threat' we might be looking at as we get late in the week will be flooding issues , which is a bit ironic considering the south half of the state has been in varying degrees of drought. Regardless, the Monday through Thursday period could still exhibit quite a bit of lightning.
As we work toward the Wednesday time frame you might be hearing on the news about 'tropical development' (somewhere in the East Central to Central Gulf of Mexico) but at this point guidance (models) are not showing much more than a possible tropical depression, and even at that whatever does form (if anything) is not shown to have much in regard to 'wind impacts' anywhere.
The biggest news I expect we'll be hearing about is RAINFALL TOTALS. Some models are showing that TOTAL RAINFALL in some locations could be anywhere from 4-8 inches between Tuesday through Thursday (graphic below).
As you can see, by Tuesday morning the DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE is really working in. That means better rain chances generally speaking AS LONG AS THERE IS A TRIGGER. Otherwise, it means very muggy morning, noon, and night, with clouds being enable to linger over head for long periods of time.
After Thursday things get sketchy, but for example the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) is showing a weak tropical low northwest of the Florida Keys. The amount of available moisture doesn't change much across the second half of the week (it's very high!) but temperatures aloft warm more and there isn't any drivers showing up to promote much in storms, at least strong storms.
So it might just end up being mostly cloudy to cloudy much of the time , warm, and very muggy. Granted, beyond Thursday-Friday time frame is too far out to draw to any conclusions at this point.
An interesting point, at least as far as the GFS model is concerned, and granted there are many other models out there all showing different things (this isn't written in stone), is that the largest rainfall totals this coming week will be right over where the worst drought conditions are respectively.
The DEEP TROPICAL INSANITY (moisture wise) is shown to pull out NEXT MONDAY for several days, but then re-emerge several days later in association with another 'potential' tropical low near the Florida Straits.
Long story short, climatological 'summer' is definitely on the way for real this week and it looks like a big dent is going to be put in the drought conditions. That's the big story for now.
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