"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Bona fide Florida Summerlike Storm Pattern In Place for the Next Week


(All images in this post from the last few days) .. Well,it took a while, but at long last it appears what would be considered something closer to a 'classic summer time weather pattern' is fully in place as of today of which will continue with daily variations (from one day to the next) for what appears to be a good week if not longer.  

That being, heaviest storms resulting from the collision of the west with the east coast sea breeze boundaries accompanied by lake breeze boundaries, and late in the day the addition of outflow boundaries from showers or storms that have formed and collapsed earlier on in the day.

Temperatures aloft at 500mb (about 20,000 ft up) are an unimpressive -5C (though we have seen even warmer that that - 'the colder aloft' it is, the stronger storms can be; if we see something like -8 to -10C, "look out!", but -5C is average.). The current reading out of the KSC Sounding this morning is middle of the road at -5C , and winds aloft are light, so 'severe' storms are not anticipated though it is possible for a stronger storm or two to pulse up where several boundaries meet late in the day (after 6PM mostly) somewhere over the interior mainly. 

Outside of any fluke meso-scale (small scale) "Accidents" , we should be seeing what would be considered 'typical' summer thunderstorms -- with the primary hazard being lightning. With such slow steering there could be some areas over the interior that will have to reckon with flooding issues (possibly) in the areas most prone to it -- those areas where activity just so happens to congregate en-masse the most frequently. Especially if it happens they do so over or near the same areas over several days.

Atmospheric moisture availability is not in question now, nor will be for quite a while. At least as it appears now per model guidance.

When is a 'more significant change' to come, and what will it be?

So far, there is a signal that a trough to form along the U.S. East Half (East of the Mississippi) might dig a bit southward more later in the week to eventually almost cut off to a mid-level low over the Southeast U.S. In doing so (or 'if so'), with Florida on the south side of that low which rotates counter-clockwise,  the state would then be under a slightly stronger W-SW flow aloft. The being the case the storm-steering would be far more certain to push inland storm activity eastward to clearing completely the east coast to offshore.

But for today and the next several days, the immediate beaches (East of US 1 for example) will be (or might be) pressed to see a fully formed and mature storm pass over head, as opposed to areas further inland where the sea breezes and lake breeze boundaries intersect and hence enhance upward lifting.

If the 'supposed' mid-level low does end up materializing by the weekend to beginning of next week, the west coast sea breeze will come across the state much more quickly and meet the east coast sea breeze (if there is one at all) must closer to I95 if not east of it. That is still out of accuracy range at this point though, but regardless, the consistency now for a few model runs indicates that no matter how one slices it we'll have the moisture and instability to keep things rolling in Classic Florida Summer Fashion now for a good 10 days.

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