Christmas in July - Few Strings Attached

Canaveral Sunrise and Surf on Thursday Morning (click to enlarge)

TODAY: Quick post as rare Christmas in July cold front which has already passed through the rest of the eastern half of the U.S makes its good byes known across Central and South Florida before exiting out overnight tonight. There MIGHT be a trick remaining up its sleeve however.  Mid level trough has yet to get into the area and will do so later today, latest RAP and to some degree the NAM (which is rarely trusted) imply a mid level impulse might cross dead Central right during peak heating hours. If so, chances of thunder might be higher than currently anticipated across the region, as models are up and down about whether it will even rain much of anywhere except along the east coast, and even at that, the better chances are south of Brevard County.

On the other hand, there is a chance of at least showers as far north as Central Volusia if the front buckles back north a notch or two on the peninsula's waistline from the Beach line west toward Brooksville on the west coast. 

Storm steering is west to east at a steady 15-20 mph pace, and with little chance of a sea breeze it's going to take  a little specially wrapped gift like a disturbance aloft (as was the case yesterday to get the bonfires burn aloft and the lightning streaks striking below. On Donner on Blitzen!

TOMORROW-SATURDAY: Cooler tomorrow morning mainly due to west winds and slightly drier air to start the day becoming ENE during the day. Almost no chance of rain tomorrow or Saturday along the east coast and only meager chances anywhere else. Things slowly start to recover Saturday and more so on Sunday. A welcome respite for beach weekenders, no strings or bows attached that has their name written all over it.

MONDAY: A large upper level high mentioned a few posts ago is forecast still to impact much of the western 2/3 rds of the country going well into next week. Perhaps some record high temperatures as far north as North Dakota or Montana will be in the offing at some point and unusually warm from Phoenix (Arizona) up through West Texas and north as well as a result. A remnant of a mid level low  currently close to SW Oklahoma might get trapped down into the NE Gulf of MExico which might go largely undetected for a few days and then manifest more toward Monday as a weak circulation almost sitting in place.  Flow to become from SSE-S Monday into Tuesday (and we're back in the thunderstorm business) and steering becomes more from the SW going into Midweek through possibly into the weekend.

Sum total, we have about 2-3 days of rather quiet weather coming up after today which isn't really all so unusual in July, has happened before even without a freak frontal passage. Inland zones will be first to note the change in pattern , mostly on Sunday.

Great Heron in Canaveral this morning (click to enlarge)