...a great example of Vortex Breakdown and Roping Out!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
...Same Old Song and Dance (click to hear)
It's just got light out, and I need to do a "quick and dirty" due to some morning commitments. The heat index at 5am is 96 degrees if that's any indication of the air mass in place. If I get this right this first time, not only will it be a first, but I won't have to do an update. For today...
Deep easterly steering flow will persist today with gobs of moisture and perhaps a little kicker today ejecting out of the closed low forming in S. Mississippi and across the Central Peninsula this afternoon. Along with the kicker there will also be some divergence yet higher aloft as the upper level low in the Deep South becomes established. So there's two things in favor of storms that we didn't really have yesterday (and yesterday wasn't too shabby as it was). Timing for the east coast for a rain shower could be just about any time but most climatically likely before 1pm and after 6pm. I know...so it will rain at 3:30pm. Like yesterday, thunder not too likely along the immediate east coast but more likely the further west of I-95 one traverses.
Most favorable area for a good storm looks to be from Tampa Bay and NE up into Lake County after 4pm, although a shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out at almost anytime in this area. The southern half of the state's weather will be almost solely dictated by an easterly flow regime whereas further north the aforementioned low/trough becomes a player. Anvil debris shouldn't over spread the East Central coastal areas today as it will be spread more toward Volusia County and points north later in the day under the gentle flow of the upper level trough.
Looking ahead a bit, we will have yet another go at a similar pattern tomorrow until the Tropical System pulls its closest move toward the state and lifts further north putting the state in westerly flow aloft; thus, favoring the east coast for the big afternoon boomers Friday-Sunday. Thursday will begin this transition with near nil flow by late in the day. It seems the system east of the Bahamas will lay low enough to not put the state in subsidence, thus rain chances are not greatly diminished but more likely to be restricted to the interior due to the influence of a west coast-east coast sea breeze convergence down the state's spine. After this scenario plays out the transition will continue over night and by sunrise Friday the new pattern will have begun - growing more established as the tropical system lifts north and merges a bit with the cut off low over the Deep South.
Expect that Friday will be the best day for a neat-o storm as always seems to be the case on the first day of full transition under an 'unpolluted' air mass. It's getting late in the Thunderstorm Season now, and we're only good for maybe two weeks of steady storm activity. After that time, it takes a little extra 'magic' other than time of day to induce storms.
On the plus side, even though they will occur less often -- we are left with a two week window of opportunity for what I think of as "rarities". Some years it happens, and some years there's absolutely nothing. It so happens that this is about a good time that something tropical in nature could occur as well...so there's still things to look forward to (if one is prone to liking active weather). It can be very benign during this time as well, so tighten up the bootstraps a notch and keep attuned.
Deep easterly steering flow will persist today with gobs of moisture and perhaps a little kicker today ejecting out of the closed low forming in S. Mississippi and across the Central Peninsula this afternoon. Along with the kicker there will also be some divergence yet higher aloft as the upper level low in the Deep South becomes established. So there's two things in favor of storms that we didn't really have yesterday (and yesterday wasn't too shabby as it was). Timing for the east coast for a rain shower could be just about any time but most climatically likely before 1pm and after 6pm. I know...so it will rain at 3:30pm. Like yesterday, thunder not too likely along the immediate east coast but more likely the further west of I-95 one traverses.
Most favorable area for a good storm looks to be from Tampa Bay and NE up into Lake County after 4pm, although a shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out at almost anytime in this area. The southern half of the state's weather will be almost solely dictated by an easterly flow regime whereas further north the aforementioned low/trough becomes a player. Anvil debris shouldn't over spread the East Central coastal areas today as it will be spread more toward Volusia County and points north later in the day under the gentle flow of the upper level trough.
Looking ahead a bit, we will have yet another go at a similar pattern tomorrow until the Tropical System pulls its closest move toward the state and lifts further north putting the state in westerly flow aloft; thus, favoring the east coast for the big afternoon boomers Friday-Sunday. Thursday will begin this transition with near nil flow by late in the day. It seems the system east of the Bahamas will lay low enough to not put the state in subsidence, thus rain chances are not greatly diminished but more likely to be restricted to the interior due to the influence of a west coast-east coast sea breeze convergence down the state's spine. After this scenario plays out the transition will continue over night and by sunrise Friday the new pattern will have begun - growing more established as the tropical system lifts north and merges a bit with the cut off low over the Deep South.
Expect that Friday will be the best day for a neat-o storm as always seems to be the case on the first day of full transition under an 'unpolluted' air mass. It's getting late in the Thunderstorm Season now, and we're only good for maybe two weeks of steady storm activity. After that time, it takes a little extra 'magic' other than time of day to induce storms.
On the plus side, even though they will occur less often -- we are left with a two week window of opportunity for what I think of as "rarities". Some years it happens, and some years there's absolutely nothing. It so happens that this is about a good time that something tropical in nature could occur as well...so there's still things to look forward to (if one is prone to liking active weather). It can be very benign during this time as well, so tighten up the bootstraps a notch and keep attuned.
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