Chance of "Enhanced" Storms East Side and South Later Today

Holiday Beach Goers Should Be Aware of the Lighting Potential Today

TODAY: Holiday Weekend in store with a brief post since not much change from what was written in the posts of the past two days. Sea breeze expected to form south of Vero Beach today, and perhaps one will form as far north as Cape Canaveral but be delayed until mid afternoon. There is a sharp moisture gradient in the mid-levels per the RAP model and cloud cover seems to confirm it, and satellite visible imagery does seem to show this boundary running across Central Florida as well.

Chance of stronger storms where the moisture gradient from more to much less moist is coincident with a land/sea breeze merger over East Central somewhere from North Brevard to as far south as Vero or even West Palm Beach where the drier air is more fully entrenched.   Looks like an earlier onset of showers/storms today but the far east side of the state north of West Palm might see in general a much later 'atmospheric performance' than the inland counterparts. Showers could dwindle into the Fireworks hours, or as merely cloudy cover with or without some light rain in a few locations.

WEEKEND: Only real change from previous is that a more SW Flow aloft is now back in the equation , but this might be questionable namely because the latest run of the GFS did a horrible time of analysing the track of Arthur and it is that model guidance mainly that is being utilized. The trend seems to be that even if steering is toward the east side of the state, it will be so slow that the bulk of activity would remain east of or near I-95 and inland and away from either the immediate west of east coasts except maybe north of or near Daytona Beach. For the most part, the I-4 and Florida Turnpike remains the favored areas with cloud cover overspreading many areas on the more active days toward sunset contingent up on which direction anvil level winds are blowing...though with a  weak SW flow into perhaps Wednesday, some activity might be able to make it back to the east coast, late. The chance of morning offshore waterspouts east coast  might still be in the equation on Sunday morning, but that's a long shot.