St. Valentine's Florida "Blues" Takes Shape

Clouds streaming across Florida with some rain showers. Dashed YELLOW lines indicate various elongated 'troughs' with the prime one oscillating north/south from Dead Central to South Central Florida.  These troughs align parallel to jet stream winds which are adding in mid level lift and hence, rain.  Another trough remains well to the north, and smaller ones to the south. It is lightly raining as I type at  1:30PM 

TODAY: Happy St. Valentines Day (aka, Valentine's Day) -  best and well regards!  So far, per the last post here on the "Weather Made Clearsphere', the weather today is materializing pretty much as expected in varying degrees. All in all as can be seen above, cloud cover is in no way - shape- or form going to be moving out today as temperatures vary vastly from the upper 40Fs far NW Florida to the upper 80Fs far South toward Kendall. Orlando set a record high of 88F degrees yesterday, and it was noted that an 87F came in at Patrick Air Force Base on the 2:55pm surface observation.  Chances of light rain off and with varying clouds; temperatures tonight 'not doing nothing special'. Light winds.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Due to timing issues of resurgences of moisture pockets in the mid levels of the atmosphere it is difficult to get down to exactly how much cloud cover will exist and when it will or will not rain some more. Chances are that by tomorrow things could let up for a while, but guidance does give us two more chances of light rain after today, mainly along and south of I-4 or even the Beach Line. Where it does not rain the temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees warmer than where it does rain.

SATURDAY LATE: So far, guidance is fairly consist in calling for the true frontal passage along with the 850mb and 700mb troughs aloft to occur just prior to sunset Saturday. It could become a bit breezy on Saturday from the WNW-NW, but the true frontal passage appears will be close to 6-7pm time frame throughout the low to mid levels. Cold air advection timing yet still is an issue. Will it occur sooner or later? And why ask?

SUNDAY: If the cold and dry air advection occurs 'soonest', Sunday morning could see low-mid  30Fs as far south as Orlando along with steady and breezy NW winds. On the other hand, be it only 6 hours later, it will not be THAT cold, BUT...the afternoon will be an even cooler to cold time frame for  afternoon high temperatures  All in all though, Sunday afternoon looks to see highs in the Low 50Fs dead central and even colder further north. We could see upper 40Fs though if frontal passage is delayed. Either way though, Sunday is the coldest day of the winter as presumed might be the case.

MONDAY: Potentially not as cold Monday morning, but drainage flow as high pressure is nearly over head could change that for inland locations. East coast from Cape South not as cold or about the same with a slow warm up into the low 60Fs (at least) and warmer South. Continual shifting of surface winds could result in an overnight warm up right at the beach dunes after midnight Monday night, with lows by Tuesday morning there close to 65F.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: By Tuesday it almost looks like it will seem as if the cold snap never even happened; warming in to the 70Fs with SE winds. Some coastal Stratocumulus clouds could start to move in though. After this time frame, guidance is beginning to hold back on the next front just a tad...but no truly cold air is popping up on out there beyond the horizon  long going into the first week of March...not that it will not get 'cooler' again, but 'cold' does not appear to be in the equation.

In summary..no true clearing although some brief periods could occur, until sometime Saturday. Light rain possible here and there and any where up until sometime Saturday as well. Colder after sunset Saturday night through Mid Day Monday. Getting breezy to 'windy' Saturday into Sunday and 'cold' by comparison to the norm of this winter season.