Potential For a Powerful Lightning Storm or Two Later Today East Side

Morning Tide - Sunrise Time

TODAY: Pattern shift began last night as severe warned (and verified) storms pelted NE Florida early evening. Outflow boundary and accompanying rain made it to part of Central Florida, even some lightning inland late evening. The boundary is likely laying around over South Central still in some form even now and might work a bit north into early afternoon.

Meanwhile, light westerly to northwesterly wind at the low levels won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze as mid-upper levels winds increase to 15 -20 kts. This should be enough to at least allow rains to reach the beaches in some form..and depending on how quickly the west coast sea breeze works east could result in fairly strong convergence and upward vertical velocities (VVs) mainly from Eastern Osceola/Brevard, Seminole , and perhaps most of Volusia County or at least south half of it later today.

 The only apparent crimp in the style is early day activity already in progress at 10AM with lightning. Outflow from this activity could disturb the diurnal cycle contingent upon how long it lasts and why it is happening which is not apparent readily.

Morning KSC sounding does not show cold air aloft, but does show a bit of an inverted V at the lower levels and some pockets of dry air in the mid levels which could result in strong gusty winds due to rapid evaporative cooling through the low levels..with very swirly wind gusts in and near downpours.

TUESDAY: This day looks like it could be a variation of today so won't go into details.

BEYOND. Trough along the east coast once again as we rotate around the summer cyclic pattern of 2015 of storms toward the east side late day. Coverage will depend on moisture content of the atmosphere though which is hard to say at this time .  Chance we might see stronger storms in the Thursday / Friday time frame. 

Additional long range model guidance/forecast gets difficult with the overnight GFS implying remnants of Old 'Danny' Boy perhaps getting involved with the Atlantic Ridge axis and southerly flow toward the weekend or beginning of next week (?)..and wrapping around it toward the peninsula. Will watch to see if we hear TV weather stations implying that potential in days ahead. If so, could really need to UP the rain chances in the extended outlooks for many areas.

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