Not As Wet as Feared; Much Cooler Through Tuesday

New Year's Day Morning in Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY : Cold frontal boundary sinking across South Florida with cloud cover increasing well behind it due to over-running. Cloud cover should increase across most parts of Central Florida earlier in the day with little change throughout - but mainly remain dry and much cooler with highs struggling to reach much above 60F north of I-4 and remaining in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs most other parts but South Central and South Florida. Light wind.

Pre-Sunrise Cloud cover in the mid-levels mainly north of the black line will sink south today as conditions to induce the same will work in from the west with increasing 'over-running'

SUNDAY: Upper level disturbance will cross the state on Sunday and exit off to the east early Monday. Guidance varies on when and how much rain will fall - but the more noteworthy trend is that rainfall totals have been going down and the period of rainfall decreasing. Rains could begin over parts of far North Central early Sunday before sunrise and work into Central by early afternoon (or much sooner) .  What guidance is showing as rainfall might be but dense low level cloud cover with very light rain. Hard to say for sure, but overall Sunday would not be much a day for planning outdoor activities it now appears. Continued quite cool on this day, perhaps cooler than today .

MONDAY: System exits east and much drier air enters the picture. This is, again, a  newly evolving depiction that is much improved from previous model runs. So dry, we might see clear skies and 'crisp' like air - with highs in the lower 60Fs if not upper 50Fs I-4 and north.  With breezy northerly wind.  

Some Florida Winter Mornings are Colorful

TUESDAY: Wind  swings around to northeast and as anyone who has been along the East coast of Florida for very long knows, onshore flow means moderating air mass (warmer air and moisture) in the late fall through early spring months. Chance of low stratocumulus decks nearer the coast and maybe a very light sprinkle on the wind shield . 

Breezy, breezy ...winds gusting perhaps over 25 mph but still a bit cool with temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs (depending on cloud cover).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Warm up ensues as wind becomes east then more southeast into Thursday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs . GFS shows chances of rain Thursday (mainly overnight) with the system exiting followed by warm westerly winds on an even warmer Friday. 

Suspect the Thursday/Friday forecast will shift around quite a bit though as that time approaches. Regardless, that system does not appear to have much in the temperature impact category if any. Severe 'potential' could possibly be in the cards for this system as well - mainly Central and North - but that too is extremely sketchy and suspect that potential will diminish in future forecasts.