Strong/Severe Storms "Possible?" Late Today - Friday (South half)3p

3PM Visible Satellite Imagery shows: (1) The departing MCS (Mesoscale convective system) to the east of Florida. This system prompted severe storm warnings last evening near Tampa and heavy rains and thunder south Florida early this morning, but mostly created only light showers and clouds elsewhere (2) At least 2 separate systems to the west and NW of Florida. These (the first) will be entering the western Panhandle while another approaches NW Florida in only a few hours to then cross the north 1/2 of Florida. Further impacts through mid-afternoon Friday are largely 'up in the air' ...with a threat further south after dark toward midnight

TODAY: Complicated and 'numerically convoluted forecast modelling' makes for an 'intrepid waters' and delicate forecast  scenario   late this afternoon into late afternoon Friday for the state. A shorwave vort max, turned "MCS" as indicated on yesterday's post survived the trek to Florida, mostly impacting the Southern 1/3 of the state in the wee hours. Two storms that I am aware of were severe warned or being watched, or exhibited near severe potential near Daytona late yesterday with .70" sized hail, and another was closely monitored in Osceola County in the early evening hours. Those storms were not associated with the MCS that moved across later and overnight. The dilemma with that system was that virtually not one model indicated the scenario to unfold the way it did EXCEPT the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model. More complications today.


For today's forecast, we'll ride mainly on the coat tails of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) watching for near severe or actual Severe Storms with a tornado potential nearly state wide, but highest across West Central Florida late today and/or tonight. As can be seen above, there is three meteorological foci of interest to be monitoring from late afternoon through tomorrow afternoon.


The first one (which by now should not exist per some models) appears to be approaching NW Florida and  will likely stay north of I-4 this evening; however, any further growth southward could breakout a threat with it into much of Central Florida toward dark. Virtually every model shows that convective inhibition will over-take much of Central (however), with much of the remaining activity shearing out after dark (dying off). If this is the case, zero severe weather will occur, if even rain for that matter.

Latest radar trend shows dying storms. These 'could' rejuvenate as they cross the state
but no model shows this to be the case

 Based on the strong wind fields (Especially heading into Friday across the South half of the state, as well as cold air aloft accompanied by sufficient low level instability, it would be a bit presumptuous to rely on model guidance in regard to precipitation fields, especially if this system mimics that of yesterday which presumably was to not hit the state at all. In fact, last night at the time storms were being warned as they approached Tampa, none of the main player models even showed that any rain was falling ANYWHERE or was supposed to be....so much for model reliability.


THROUGH FRIDAY: Although Severe Weather certainly looks possible, actually any severe storm will remain isolated ...as opposed to a squall line type 'event'. Another disturbance associated with a cold front itself is forecast to enter Central Florida from the north by early afternoon (if not sooner) on Friday. Timing of this feature is not at all pegged down, thus as a precautionary measure it is best to raise the level of awareness that should the feature be delayed into early afternoon, strong storms will again be possible along and south of SR 528 toward Tampa Bay after 10AM Friday and southward as the day progresses.


LASTLY: I will again stress the models show virtually close to Nil Severe weather potential except perhaps later today north of I-4. Thus, best to stay attuned to later develops as a tornado potential cannot be ruled out either. We can see how this is depicted by the SPC based in Norman, Oklahoma.

Per spc.noaa.gov   website. Do note the color coded schematic. The threat  overall is very low, but nonetheless exists. Highest potential above 15% toward the 45% start to be associate with MDT- HIGH RISK severe weather events. The area bounded in green is a 'General Risk" area. Also possible is near severe or actually severe category winds and 1" hail. All under the assumption that storms will manifest in the atmospheric environment over the state later today into tonight through and past midnight.  ALSO: Another potential threat area remains for the South 1/2 of the state from mid day Friday through a part of Friday afternoon (per model guidance as well as the SPC)  

SATURDAY: Stronger ENE-NE winds still anticipated with some cloudy skies mainly near the East Coast. This front has now sped up in timing by about 6 hours from yesterday's post. Either way, at some point between Friday night to early Saturday morning breezy and non-beachy weather anticipated with cooler temperatures in the 70Fs.  


EASTER: Winds will be letting up before Sunset Saturday evening, and in the 10-18mph range from the east on Easter Morning with scattered clouds, and 'possibly mostly cloudy' near the coast from the Cape and South to Miami.