"20 Degrees (Fahrenheit) of Separation"

WINTRY SUNRISE TO START THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2016

TODAY/MONDAY: Cool start to the day warming into the 60Fs range (cooler North Florida) with NW winds with cleared out sky as the sun rose going into mid-morning as was anticipated to occur in Saturday's post. Temperature and skies are running on schedule.  Temperatures this morning were up to 20F degrees colder than last week and afternoon highs in some places will run nearly just about as cool as well. So much for record breaking warmth for quite some time to come. Temperatures are now running just a bit 'below' norms for a change.

OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY: Wind to become more northerly to just off northerly toward NNE (north-northeast) at ground and just above the deck. Temperature at 2000 ft will be very cold which should aid in getting the coastal stratocumulus cloud deck blanket going with possible sprinkles as well especially late morning toward early afternoon. Wind increasing toward the 20 mph range with gusts toward 25mph at time.  

TUESDAY LATE-WEDNESDAY: Increasing moisture as low pressure begins to form toward the western Bahamas. Guidance is spread far and wide on how strong the low pressure area will get which actually makes a big difference in the forecast for Central Florida (not so much South Florida).  

Either way...chance of showers with measurable rainfall will begin to emerge mid-day Wednesday and increase toward late day and into the evening. This will be a short-range event though to clear out going into Thursday as 'whatever forms' near the Bahamas swiftly departs. South Florida will be the beneficiary of the rainfall from that quick system.

Continued on the cool side Tuesday dues to increasing cloud cover (and depth) through the 5000 ft level will allow little but filtered sunlight at least per the GFS and NAM models. It might feel even cooler than today in coastal locations due to lack of direct sunlight and strong wind (with possible wetting as well later in the day) 

Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the moderation scheme overnight though..with morning lows by Wednesday almost as warm as today's high temperature (for those close to the coast).  But rain chances Wednesday due increase, especially for South Florida and coastal Central as noted above. 

 

WEDNESDAY: This day seems to have a better rain chance, especially South Florida but also to the North toward East Central going into later in the day and the overnight hours. Temperatures running in the mid-upper 60Fs into the overnight.

THURSDAY: Lighter easterly wind, partly cloudy, maybe a shower but we'll be in - between weather systems so rather an uneventful day weather-wise (so far at least) as low pressure of whatever strength moves north and east away from Florida and the pressure gradient begins to decrease.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Much divergence (continues) across models runs and between varying models on what comes with the next upper level impulse to be tracking across Southern Texas and nearly tracing the Gulf coast states ocean front.  

How strong the next 'low' will be from the West (if there is one) and it's location as well as the timing are all up for grabs so won't bother wasting too much time speaking of what will occur over the weekend other than to say at this point Sunday seems to be the day with the best chances of rain. 

No 'overly-warm' temperatures are foreseen but the colder mornings will, by Thursday, have fully seen their demise.  

No One is Renting ..Let alone Buying It This Morning

Beyond the next system's passage no cold air is to follow, as least nothing cooler than it as this morning.

Next chance of 'cold' weather is around the January 13th Time Frame which is long range and also unreliable.

 Previous model run showed no such chance of another cold spell for quite some time - but noting - in the forecasts beyond 8 days the GFS varies sometimes from run to run as broad as the sea is deep from near severe, to much colder, to even much warmer. Whatever.