Fall is Here to Stay

Late October of 2015, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool spell of late will begin the vanishing act going into this afternoon through Wednesday. Morning temperatures ranging around the state from near 40F to as warm as 60F (warmest in the Keys) will quickly moderate through noon into the mid afternoon hours as wind becomes a light NNE to NE direction and dew-points rise from the lower 30Fs-40Fs never to sink back down again but for the west side of the state - panhandle regions mainly during the overnight hours to early morning Wednesday.

Highs today in the lower 70Fs for the most part state wide with a few mid-70Fs under clear skies. Temperatures falling west of I95 after dark but very slowly more along the immediate east coast near to east of US1 where easterlies passing across warm ocean waters will hold that descent at bay.

Per title of today's Post, it appears per long range guidance that dew points in the 70Fs, or at least any semblance of mid-70F dew-points and warmer are pretty much gone for good, thus welcoming in The Fall Season. that is here to stay.

 Dew-points in the summer run in the upper 70Fs to even near 80F but that is not happening anytime soon.  Temperature can't go any lower, however, than the dew-point temperature so it goes to follow that the higher the dew-point in the morning, the warmer the ambient outside temperate too will be whereas lower dewpoints over night also means cooler mornings all around, especially as the sun angle is getting lower and days shorter to boot.

WEDNESDAY: Warmest at  sunrise up and down the east coast along the A1A strip, even more so outer barrier islands to relish in the 'not so quite as cool' air, yet hardly 'warm '. Lows per GFS are showing lower 60Fs at beaches while the NAM model is spitting out closer to 70F. Will draw a compromise pointing toward the 67F -69F range in those locations, warming inland later in the day toward upper 70Fs but the coast a tad cooler. Either way, round the clock 70Fs are in the offing for the beaches come Thursday (or close to it).

THURSDAY: Not much change really as morning lows inland will begin to more fully realize the rising dew-points with warmer mornings more toward upper 50Fs and eventually lower 60Fs in some locations, with a better chance of seeing 70F at the beaches themselves. No chance of rain. That is to say, if per chance any depth in moisture is realized to manifest more than pancake stratocumulus clouds, chances are it wouldn't be enough to get the ground wet.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Highs reaching lower 80Fs, and lows in 60Fs except immediate beach-side in the lower 70Fs with increasing patches of various low level types of clouds from time to time.

A large, inverted trough will be forming well to the east of the state from the Bahamas or east of there up toward offshore Hatteras, and the net affect will be to keep winds just backed a bit to the ENE or occasionally NE. Eventually at some point overnight they might be able to back to NW briefly overnight near the coast which would result in a cooler morning or two. Otherwise, the afternoons will be running right on par with climatic norms of lower 80Fs with dew-points (and morning lows) in the lower to mid 60Fs.

FAR BEYOND: No cool spells of the caliber recently experienced over the past 8 days will be experienced again for quite some time, at least until mid-November as it looks now. Likewise, no 'rain events' or even measurable rain at all in some locations will  need to be addressed. Not to say heading toward late this week into the weekend some locations might not get a brief soak, but otherwise things appear to have settled down for a change as opposed to having a resting time yet being able to see something else coming along the horizon downstream. That is not the case anymore, for the first time in quite a while. 

Should anything change from the generalities expressed above  to be of impact within a week,  posts will likely resume from that time out.

P.S.   clocks   set back an hour come Saturday evening / early Sunday morning.  One more sign that we've reached the point of no return to what once was.