Isolated Thunder East Central, Possible One Stronger Storm Toward Beaches

Isolated Thunder East Central Florida late afternoon into early Evening
Some showers in areas noted into the Everglades and around Lake Okeechobee.
Showers and some thunder near and north of I-10.

TODAY: Will leave this one fairly brief early this Sunday afternoon. Tables have about turned now for the onset of a new weather pattern which showed signs of its arrival late yesterday near Martin County. Expect that today, with precipitable water only around 1.2" (compared to near 1.85" - 2+" in the summer),  that any activity will be very isolated with 3 (at most) storms possible Central. Based on trends and guidance since early on, there is a chance that one sole storm could become strong, unusually so once migrating east of I-95 toward US1 and the beaches from near Mims south toward MLB after 6pm. This would only be possible in the presence of a late afternoon sea breeze remaining very close to east of I-95. As has been noted in the past, the sea breeze penetration can be very tricky at best any day, but especially so on days  when guidance does not show that one is supposed to even develop at all. For now, if it develops late and/or does develop but makes little inland penetration, a strong storm is possible eastern Brevard mainly. If it develops sooner, a strong storm could form toward Eastern Osceola County after 6pm.  Otherwise, sunny and bright with few clouds outside around any activity, especially after 5pm.


MONDAY/TUESDAY: As noted in the above image, more upper level  'wind' energy will be present in days to come, but not so much today.  There is not one day that a lot of Convective Available Potential  Energy (CAPE) is shown to pop up over the landmass, but moisture is expected to be increased by Monday, so more thunder and showers is possible on that day and Tuesday regardless of the fact the atmosphere is not all that unstable at the surface. The better factors could be colder air aloft, as will be the case today to some degree.


BEYOND: Thunder and shower chances should start to decrease from north to South, especially on Thursday with an end most areas by the weekend. It does not look like after a few day break in the activity the rain chances will be gone for good. An upper level system, slow to get here, will still be on the move from the west along the northern Gulf Coast; so that although we might see a break toward next weekend, there could still be a few days of more hectic weather to come heading toward mid-May.