Severe Weather Might Be Closer Than a Sniff

The Storm Prediction Center has put out their latest severe weather outlook
which places the risk of severe weather along and north of a line running
from Titusville-Tampa (this is further south than what is outlined in
today's earlier blog post). The National Weather Service has also alluded to
the possibility of severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook...a
portion of which is shown below. For the most part, the best chance remains
in the area noted in my earlier blog post, but as a safety measure this
information should be conveyed. Just a heads up:

LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
LATE TODAY...AND THEN CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO SUNSET WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 ...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASING AFTER SUNSET FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER. DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
SHEAR...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...COULD
OCCUR FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES NORTHWARD...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

Nasty Weather So Close You Can Smell It

(Images depict northward moving boundary and area of most active weather later today/tonight. Last two images show current lowest level helicity and shear, harbingers to severe weather)

Most of Today: As of 7am a pseudo warm front is passing across Central Florida and moving north. Behind this boundary, and for the course of most of the day, a much warmer SSW-SW wind flow will warm the temperature up to about 77 degrees along the coast and to around 80 (give or take a degree or two) west of the Indian River. The day will be characterized by very breezy, if not windy, SSW-SW winds under a good coverage of mainly high and occasionally mid-level cloudiness. The cross wind over the causeways will give cause to have both hands on the steering wheel..and small craft boating could be somewhat hazardous as a result. Most, if not all of the rain will remain along and north of the retreating 'warm frontal' boundary...as noted in the dashed lines in the included images.

Late This Afternoon into the Evening: Rain chances increase sometime after 5pm as a weakening cold frontal boundary of sorts sinks south into Central Florida. Most of the energy that's causing all the storms in the panhandle this morning will have moved well off to the ENE, however the lower levels will have destabilized sufficiently with the heating of the day to generate scattered, if not numerous, rain showers across all of the central peninsula. (We might be hearing about severe thunderstorm warnings being issued in the highlighted area along and north of a Daytona Beach - Brooksville line by mid-afternoon with a very isolated chance of such close to the Tampa Bay area). These showers will be with us throughout the evening and into Friday through at least noon time as the boundary sinks south. Residual moisture behind the boundary may create additional showers until about 5pm Friday, but at this point I believe that for the most part our best chances of rain will be over by 1pm on Friday.

Overnight Friday into Saturday: Any residual showers and clouds will be clearing the area over night as a short wave ridge breaks overhead in advance of yet the next Pacific system. High pressure at the surface ridging down the Appalachian chain will ooze on by to the north and place Florida in a light easterly wind by Saturday morning under partially clearing skies and cooler temperatures but by no means cold (mid-50s). Saturday will be dry but feel somewhat cool in comparison to the two days prior with a high in the upper 60s along the coast and closer to 73 west of US1. This easterly (onshore) flow will be felt most along the coast east of US1 of course...but all areas will be cooler regardless.

Sunday: Yet another system will be knocking on our chamber doors as the Pacific conveyor belt ejects yet another system across the southern tier of states. The wind will again swing around to a more SW'ly component...providing for a noticeably warmer day with temperatures much like they will be today...but we will remain dry until after sunset.

Monday: As presumed yesterday, the next front associated with this parade participant will be very close to Central Florida at daybreak Monday. Rain showers will be likely at this time as well and will persist until at least mid-day before the front pushes through with cold air advection ensuing by sunset. This won't be a major cold event, but it won't be warm either. Lows back down to the mid-50s by daybreak Tuesday under a clearing sky.

Tuesday-Thursday: The good thing that at this point it that we're mainly going to be looking at lows only in the 50s and highs in the uper 60s Tuesday-Thursday of next week under partly cloudy skies and light winds. All in all not bad for the middle of winter. But, the next system will be eyeing our region... seeing as how that is a good week away, we can leave that for a later time.

Lots to savor for today in the meantime. Radar could be the best show on the screen today (beats "One Life to Live") if all pans out.