Potential For Strong to Severe Storms Will Exist After 8PM , Warm on Tuesday

   "Fillmore"

TODAY-OVERNIGHT: There will be the potential for strong to even severe storms late tonight through around 4-5AM Tuesday morning though location of such storms and timing is very difficult at time to determine due to   model run inconsistencies and little agreement between different models, notwithstanding uncertainty in a wide variety of ways. 

All guidance does bring a number of factors into the play in the wind fields with very cold air aloft such as near -15C at 500mb (20000ft) which is unusual for Central Florida almost any time of year. Shearing wind profiles both in direction and speed combined with ample (but barely ample) instability (which is a big factor that might reduce the severe chance to near zero) is a big question as is any real drive (reason) for discrete storm formation.

The more 'organized' part of the pattern set up passes across the Panhandle region earlier on in the form of a broken sort of squall line which might die off as it gets toward Tallahassee region in the early evening hours.

FURTHER SOUTH: Chance of showers and who knows, maybe a thunder across parts of mainly South Central to Central Florida moving up and out from the south to southwest then offshore, possibly as soon as mid afternoon up through near sunset.

NOTE: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
MIGHT NEED TO WATCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTH OF FT. LAUDERDALE
AS WELL AS NEAR TH PORT CHARLOTTE AREA

THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS though is after the 10PM through around 4AM though this could change. There is a chance that few of any areas will even get severe weather or, in fact, any rain at all. Chances are things will become a bit more clear by mid-late afternoon what the evening and over-night have to bring, so s would advise keeping at least one ear leaning toward local news channels either during the dinner or bed times hours.

TUESDAY: Regardless of what does or does not occur late today or tonight, there is agreement that the 'All Clear' can be heralded before sunrise with clearing conditions probably even before sunrise. Tuesday looks to be a warm one with a cold front still to come toward sunset for Central Florida and then the remainder of the state after dark. Highs could reach mid-upper 70Fs many areas, even some lower 80Fs in a few locations contingent upon cloud coverage.

BEYOND: Though a front will be going through there is not a big temperature change behind it. Even that has been going up and down in the forecasts but best bet for now will be to settle on temperatures running near climatological norms...and considering that lately the CLIMATE has been no where close to LOGICAL lately for Florida (cold temperature wise) any upward climb in the mercury would be warmly welcomed (at least for those who do not prefer colder / cool weather).

There is another front or two to come in the next 8 days but so far (fingers crossed) none of them have that much of a 'shock value' to them in the temperatures. After the recent thread of days and then the other string of them prior, not much will be a cold shock any more. Almost no where to go but up from here on out .

ON THE OTHER HAND: Next POTENTIAL THREAT for SEVERE WEATHER is being shown to be around the 23-25th time frame. That chance showed up a while back..disappeared and has now re-appeared with fairly good consistency over the past 24 hours but it's still nearly 8 -10 days out in time and much can change. Given what I'm seeing now..it is at least worth noting for the time being as the factors that could eventually come into play (if so) would be all too sufficient for severe weather for  someone in the Southeast states and/or along the Gulf Coast, including Florida.