First off: I will begin references to Tropical Activity as this season progresses...stay tuned. But for today, I could go on and on about this, that, or the other, but in the long run what it comes down to is nothing other than weak tropical waves will affect Florida during the next week (or will even develop further than being tropical waves within 800 miles).
No surprises for today. As anticipated, today is the transition day. In fact, the transition is occuring as I type. We have been DEAD calm all morning as the signs of things to come materializes. Even the crickets are cheerfully announcing it this morning. Haven't heard them like this is a while.
Inverted trough axis that passed across S. Florida yesterday exited into the SE GOM overnight and is merging with the ridge axis that's been over S. Florida the past few days. As the trough lifts north and weakens (and by the way weakens the ridge for a brief time) we will be in a NIL flow pattern below 18,000 ft for at least the first half of the day. After that, well that is continued below. :- )
Now, I haven't seen Tampa's sounding data yet for 12Z, so unless every model is off then I'm going out on a limb and posting anyway. Actually, the 00z sounding from last night showed that the transition had begun; therefore, I trust the trend being indictated by the models (which has been advertised for days).
Any chances of convection east of I-95 will have to occur before 2:00 pm. There is unquestionably ample moisture and no inhibiting factors in play today, it's strictly a matter of the Deep Layer Mean (DLM) steering winds. They have been very light to a tad from the SSW the past two days, but today they will be light to being from the SSE. This little change will give the east coast seabreeze an extra shove to the west meaning that most any significant convection today will be west of the spine of the state after 5pm. There is still a chance of coastal activity along and east of I-95 before 2pm, but after that all bets are off.
Depending on far the most eastern convection intiates and where, will dictate whether one will succumb to a late afternoon cirrus/cirrostratus shield since anvil level winds remain from the SW.
Mid-Long Term: Too iffy. The GFS has to be totally disregarded for the time between 12 & 13 August (Wednesday and Thursday), as it makes such a rapid shift in the location of the ridge axis within a 12 hour period that it's totally unrealistic. Therefore, at this point everything will hinge on how far north the axis makes it (will it work into the Carolinas or stay much further south?).
If it works into the Carolinas then this easterly flow pattern could be in place for two weeks or more, and if it only makes it to N. Florida/S. Georgia every day could become a challenge contingent upon whether a strong enough impulse digs the trough located futher north southward or not. But that's another day.
No surprises for today. As anticipated, today is the transition day. In fact, the transition is occuring as I type. We have been DEAD calm all morning as the signs of things to come materializes. Even the crickets are cheerfully announcing it this morning. Haven't heard them like this is a while.
Inverted trough axis that passed across S. Florida yesterday exited into the SE GOM overnight and is merging with the ridge axis that's been over S. Florida the past few days. As the trough lifts north and weakens (and by the way weakens the ridge for a brief time) we will be in a NIL flow pattern below 18,000 ft for at least the first half of the day. After that, well that is continued below. :- )
Now, I haven't seen Tampa's sounding data yet for 12Z, so unless every model is off then I'm going out on a limb and posting anyway. Actually, the 00z sounding from last night showed that the transition had begun; therefore, I trust the trend being indictated by the models (which has been advertised for days).
Any chances of convection east of I-95 will have to occur before 2:00 pm. There is unquestionably ample moisture and no inhibiting factors in play today, it's strictly a matter of the Deep Layer Mean (DLM) steering winds. They have been very light to a tad from the SSW the past two days, but today they will be light to being from the SSE. This little change will give the east coast seabreeze an extra shove to the west meaning that most any significant convection today will be west of the spine of the state after 5pm. There is still a chance of coastal activity along and east of I-95 before 2pm, but after that all bets are off.
Depending on far the most eastern convection intiates and where, will dictate whether one will succumb to a late afternoon cirrus/cirrostratus shield since anvil level winds remain from the SW.
Mid-Long Term: Too iffy. The GFS has to be totally disregarded for the time between 12 & 13 August (Wednesday and Thursday), as it makes such a rapid shift in the location of the ridge axis within a 12 hour period that it's totally unrealistic. Therefore, at this point everything will hinge on how far north the axis makes it (will it work into the Carolinas or stay much further south?).
If it works into the Carolinas then this easterly flow pattern could be in place for two weeks or more, and if it only makes it to N. Florida/S. Georgia every day could become a challenge contingent upon whether a strong enough impulse digs the trough located futher north southward or not. But that's another day.
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