Thundersday Storms Possible North/Central

Thunder in Orange Most Likely possible areas today with isolated strong to severe 'warned' activity. Expect most of the strongest activity to be North Florida with a secondary area between Palm Bay north to DAB after 4:30pm through 8pm time frame, as well as interior Osceola County and parts of Orange. 

TODAY: Large upper level trough  across the Country's Mid-Section toward the Great Lakes region tonight into Tomorrow will draw deep tropical moisture northward in advance, and in fact as can be seen above the atmosphere is already beginning to respond in the SE Gulf by the high clouds lifting northward.


For today, east coast sea breeze has already begun along A1A to US 1 from MLB and north and would expect it to reach as far as near 95 at least. The caveat for areas across Central is the higher clouds seen above encroaching on the southern most area of interesting south of the Beach Line.  Should they make a continued rapid approach, the storm chances dwindle to very low.. But, outside of that caveat, the region from the Volusia/Brevard County line   -Kissimmee south along the FL Turnpike to Central Osceola County and east to Sebastian bears watching for several rounds of storms and/or showers from mid afternoon through mid-late evening.  The advancing west coast sea breeze is clearly visible in the image above, and expect it will get active especially as the east coast sea breeze approaches on its very eastward advance.  Given the sea breeze is in place, and models were mostly not showing this to occur or if so..quite side shore..some storms could be severe near I-95 to US-1 despite what models are showing (not) and the coast depending on how late they form and how far north the cirrus clouds have worked up the peninsula.


Temperatures aloft seem to be warming which would make sense given the tropical like nature and origin of that moisture, so weather the storms will reach severe category is questionable too, especially south of I-4. Main threat seems to be sub - severe winds.  The main state of affairs appears will be slow moving localized heavy rain storms with some lightning, but out flow boundary mergers with the sea breezes could get things 'rocking well'.


Freitag: Rain could begin pre-sunrise or re-form prior to dawn somewhere over the South Half of the state. For the most part, Friday does not look a thunderstorm day predominantly as much as a cloudy and rain day, except toward the Sarasota to   Tampa area, or somewhere along the west coast. A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises sums up Friday for 'Somewhere across Central Florida trying to reach the east coast', but not thinking at this point that any real thunder activity will quite get there except toward DAB...and perhaps far South Florida. The issue here being lack of stability due to predominant cloud cover.


BEYOND: Saturday through Tuesday looks much nicer with very low rain chances and very warm to hot afternoons under a long fetched land based NW flow..it is in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame through at least Friday or Saturday that good storm chances enter the picture again working from NW to SE ..further into South Florida as well by Thursday. Storms could be strong to severe on those days as things look now with colder air aloft as moisture from Remains of the Plains Moisture comes in from the WNW-NW.