Minor Update For Florida East Coast Readers

As we've worked into the afternoon hours it has become apparent that the East Coast sea breeze is making very, VERY little progress inland this afternoon. Apparently due to the fact that the mid-level ridge axis has shifted further south toward Palm Beach County abetted by a midlevel trough axis extending south from the New England through Mid-Atlantic coast.The cloud line that had nearly diminished is not reforming with daytime heating and actually being  weakly pushed  back to the shore line as cloud tops reach greater height.

 

Forecast models show winds just above the sea breeze boundary through 10,000ft to remain SW-WSW through the remainder of the daylight hours.

Moisture at this layer is ample enough to just sustain cloud formation and enhancement...and as such moderate cumulus are translating to narrow towering cumulus and rain showers. With additional daytime heating and subsequent destabilization some pockets of moisture (assuming they do not dry up) could coalesce to central points generating a hefty enough area for "just maybe" a thunderstorm. Coastal communities from just south of Ft Pierce to Daytona Beach are all in the penetrable zone for any activity that can actually get going.

 

The other possibility is that a decent enough storm could get going along I-95 which would send a cooling outflow back to the coast with an accompanying gust front looking cloud formation followed by little to no precipitation accompanying it.

 

My personal rain chance just went from 0-15.775% for the aforementioned area.

Bonnie Not Enough To Recycle July's Weather Pattern

TODAY: Despite a slight increase in overall moisture, it's not all in the right places.  Early morning land breeze and synoptic analysis over the SE U.S. and Western Atlantic coupled with surface data indicate the low level ridge axis is along a Sebastian to south of Kissimmee line..and just about directly over head aloft over all of Central Florida.  This permitted the land breeze to from overnight..and such will occur each morning for the remainder of the week. A decent field of moderate cumulus formed with morning heat, but is quickly shifting inland as the sea breeze sets in. Despite the favorable low level flow and ample moisture for cloud formation here, the rest of the atmosphere remains unfavorable for shower/storm formation. Thus, the result as we work into the afternoon remains status quo of recent days.

 

Most favored area for very isolated activity today will be where moisture convergence is maximized along collisions of east/west coast breezes with lake breezes well inland just about anywhere within the spine of the state.

 

IT'S BEEN DRY:

I wasn't going to post today but might as well  recap the rainfall situation for the month for Brevard County...to specifically point out
the possibility that the region from S. Cocoa-Rockledge- Satellite Beach-Indian Harbor might be suffering the worst of an already bad
low rainfall situation.

The Titusville area might barely in the red if at all, as that's where everything has happened this month so far...there and extreme SW Brevard
west of Palm Bay. The lone one out in this specified area would be PAFB and Cape Canaveral, where each has had a very tiny rainfall 'event' on separate occasions.

I was even considering writing the NWS MLB to see if someone  would provide
the low down on how this month has fared compared to past July's.
Wouldn't you know it, there's an article in the paper today summing it up!
What a coincidence. If you didn't see it, MLB is having the second driest
July for their reporting location on record. The other being in 1955...but
the total precip. for both July's is within the 0.80"-0.90" range which is
close to negligible, whereas Cape Canaveral has received 2.03" , at least in my backyard.

 

ELSEWHERE: Seems the most likely area today for rainfall will be just inland of Ft. Myers northward anywhere over the west half of the state.

Hard to decipher a 'best possibility' locale at time of writing. There already has been a shower on Tampa Bay this morning though.

 

SO WHEN'S THE CHANGE FAVORING EAST COAST RAINS COMING?: Will elaborate more on this tomorrow. Just need to monitor model outputs for another 24 hours for continuity and agreement among them. For a heads up though, there could be trend favoring the east coast for afternoon and early evening activity by late Thursday-Saturday (and maybe Sunday). At this time there are factors favoring this regime, but there is almost an equal number of factors precluding things to unfold as such. Either way, the chance looks just above meager at best for now, which is better than we currently stand.