Transition day -Showers/Storms Possible Mainly North Half

Remnant hint of mid-level trough near edge of bounds of high pressure shows in the band of gray across Central which started out as greater cloud coverage early today could play in  later on.

TODAY: Transition day. Transition from what? Hurricane/Storm Ernesto has made landfall and has thus moved far enough from Florida to stop effecting the mid-upper level pressure pattern. As a result, although steering is weak, from near the Cape and north it is from the west to northwest, whereas below that they winds are negligent. Precipitable water values are remnant from the Tropical Wave over the weekend and have been lingering in the region for days now, but the greatest concentration is north half as further south, this region is indirectly being sucked dry by Ernesto. Guidance shows a deep moisture surge along the SE Florida coast but satellite imagery does not reflect this to be the case, at least not yet. Therefore, with sea breeze convergence closer toward the West Coast and latest guidance reflecting some cooler air aloft could mean either storms could form for one reason or the other SW of Lake Okeechobee with some colder air aloft sneaking in. 

The better likelihood is to the north though. With the storm pulling away in a near COL pattern over Central and South Florida the mid-level trough further north is now permitted to work south more during the day to some degree between meeting the eastern Atlantic ridge axis barely reaching across Central Florida in the lower portions of the mid-levels toward Central.

With that said, steering is from the west to even NW later today toward East Central. Chances are any rain will remain west of I-95 South of I-4 but it is not guaranteed. It could be the zone south of I-4 will see increased mid-level clouds later today and that will be that, with the better chance of possibly even offshore moving showers and thunder from Central or North Volusia and west (and north of there). There is a bit of a dry mid-level slot across South Central which might have thrown earlier model runs off, because they are no longer showing storms NW of the Big Lake as was the case earlier. That, will only be determined later today, but for now have left that region out in the rain coloring schematic.

TOMORROW: Some general pattern continues with better chances of rain (but barely) from SW Florida NEward toward I-4 and north Florida with other showers elsewhere, although the immediate coast south of I-4 is in question, but likely a no-go for rain at this conjecture.

WORKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND: Appears moisture from a few tropically undefined by name or status 'wave like perturbances'  could be working toward Florida with a shift toward a more Southerly to SSE in the low levels to SW steering and overall wind direction ensuing, albeit light. This would mean an increasing in afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity from a broader perspective, with activity hedging toward the east coast and potentially cloud lines and showers setting up along to just west of the east coast intracoastal waterways. Warm and muggy as would be expected.

TROPICALLY BEYOND: The GFS has been showing except in one out of four daily runs for two solid days a hurricane approaching the U.S. east coast toward the third week of August. This is quite far out in time though, and could suddenly disappear at the drop of a dime. The EURO does not even go that far out in time for clarification purposes on any actually threat which has varied with a margin of error, or cone of error, that extends from the Florida east coast to just off Maine. The pretty much covers the bases and says essentially nothing..but for now, just an itch behind the ear. Might not hurt to look in the pantry and buckle up on storm preparations though since we are approaching the Peak of Storm Season going from Late August through September and into early October. Nothing like being caught with the pants down and nothing to buckle up with before the thundering throngs crash the market places and the price grouches  (gougers) play their pawn for check-mate at the counters.