'Normal" Summerlike Weather Could Return by Thursday, Meanwhile..."

Sunrise Surprise

TODAY- TUESDAY: If one is at all interested in the weather across the east 1/2 of Florida then you'll be aware of a low pressure area offshore the east coast approximately 125-150 NM east of Melbourne which is very slowly moving just west of due south this afternoon. This system combined with high pressure to the west has thoroughly disrupted the normal afternoon thunderstorms/sea breeze pattern across the state. Many areas will remain dry today, perhaps more so than usual other than over parts of  South Central and South Florida outside of some paltry showers that could come on shore mainly near Volusia to Brevard county later in the afternoon. (note, any shower moving onshore will likely contain very gusty winds) . 

Where the low moves will have direct bearing on the weather over the next 48 hours. The closer the low moves to the state, the greater the chances of rain. Guidance varies vastly, if the NAM model verifies, most everyone for the most part remains dry while the low remains too far to the east. If the GFS verifies, then the area mainly from Southern Volusian and south through Martin county could get over 2"" of rainfall by the time Tuesday evening is over with. Take your pic...

2:15PM Melbourne, Florida radar, courtesy of weathertap.com. Red arrows show possible motion of low (shown with the red "L") The little white pointers shows the direct of shower/thunderstorm motion today

 

Visible Satellite Image, showing the bloggers 'cone of error' of where this little low could end up in the near term

Most models agree this low  which is TINY TINY TINY  (at present time) could grow into a  tropical storm east of South Carolina for the most part. As seen above the GFS brings the low very close to Cape Canaveral late Tuesday (purple arrow), another model actually brings it in as a very weak system , finally carrying it off to the north, and yet another model does something in between. Who really knows? (other purple arrow , models show remaining well offshore).  But in all cases, this low 'should' be out of the picture on Wednesday, and by Thursday we would return to business as usual. The next question though would be if dry air will get entrained across the state of Florida here or there in days to come. There again, is disagreement.

THE NHC outlook at 2pm reads:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida.  Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression.  This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast.  A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance.  If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Sun Rising on the last day of June 2014 behind Showers
Related to a Tropical Low Offshore

BEYOND: Do note that the NWS, the National Hurricane Center, and Emergency Management are all 'Eye'-ing this system off the FLorida east coast for possible surprisingly big impacts. If the GFS does verify parts of the East Coast regions could receive  over 3"rainfall. At this time, not hedging any bets on it. This system will be of marine interests primarily throughout it's duration as it appears now.

Whispy Pileus Atop Comulus Congestus Rainshower Over the Atlantic