Be Fore-warned Florida...It's Gonna Be Cold in These Thar Hills

Coldest Full Day (or nearly so) of Winter for Florida is in the Making, but first comes some rain

A different flavor of post today, no maps required. The writing has been on the walls for nearly two weeks now (I have been watching behind the scenes), that a change was in the making as noted in the previous two posts. It now appears that all will come to fruition. Earlier posts were not definitive since it is not particularly beneficial most of the time to put the cart before the horse (the boy who cried wolf syndrome as weather folks are so famous for). I suppose it is time to cry , "Man Your Battle Stations!...Cold air is on the way."  And it looks like a doozy. But all is not as bad as it may seem. Meaning, this does not appear to be a long spell of it. However, even more changes are a brewin', at least in regard to implications made by the weather models. Again, though, this seemed to be also in the making. With this in mind....


TODAY: A cold front is in development and to cross the state through the day and into the evening and overnight. Ahead of the front, clouds will persist for the most part as winds begin to shift from southeast to south and eventually Southwest. There is a chance of thunder after 2-7pm considering : (1) the respectable amount of bulk wind shear throughout all atmospheric levels in what is referred to as the boundary layer  and (2) atmospheric instability (which is not all so impressive to say the least) does exist today as opposed to previous frontal passages.


Prior to that time and during it as well, some lighter rain may fall, particularly over the southern 1/3 of the state initially. As the front approaches toward mid-afternoon rain chances and possible thunder from near Canaveral and South, where as other showers and maybe thunder further north along this developing two-tonged system moves through could occur, although thunder along the front itself appears less likely. Without going into meteorological specifics, there is agreement in models to a respectable degree...and the National Weather Service has taken a bite as well along this line of thinking. 


SATURDAY: The overall system which is much larger than what is impacting Florida will be moving east of the state as NW winds filter in during the day after the frontal passage which appears will occur shortly before mid-evening through post midnight across the peninsula. Thus, on Saturday..the air will begin to dry out from the dank and damp conditions of recent days (in the evenings)...and with drier air comes colder air, since dry air holds less heat over the night time hours. The second phase of this system will clear all of the northern 2/3 of the state by mid-Saturday evening as temperatures fall into the 40Fs and the air outside continues to dry.


SUNDAY: Potentially the coldest day of the winter 2011-2012 season from sunrise to set. Highs possibly never to clear the upper 40Fs (but see further down too) most areas at and north of Lake Okeechobee. Morning lows toward freezing from I-4 and north, if not even further south than there. Coastal east coast lows in the upper 30Fs toward low 40Fs. The difference in this cold spell as opposed to the previous will not be so much the morning low, but rather the lack of warmth Sunday afternoon with continued winds to abate not enough for uncomfortable wind chills until Monday early.


This image is a forecast from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model showing in blue 30F's if not colder toward far Florida. The green tones are noted first with the 40F print. One can take it from there. Afternoon highs to make it into the low 50Fs central toward South Central and warmer yet further south based on this run, but we will need to watch those numbers. Could be yet colder than shown here.

  


MONDAY: With the worst over, and winds becoming more easterly..the immediate beaches from Canaveral South will likely be in the mid-upper 40Fs, with continued cold (but not freezing) elsewhere on more morning...Monday will be a few or more degrees warmer all locales, but still chilly by comparison to days like those of yesterday and today.


TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Continued warming toward the 70Fs with a rapid warm up over nights as well. This is not the end of the saga however as alluded to in the opening paragraph. Although very cold air is not yet depicted, the chances for rainfall and possible storms remains to be  an emerging possibility once again. As usual and  would expect from a blog named "High Speed Dirt", the watch for active severe weather will need to be considered heading into the later parts of February for somewhere in the state.