Happy Fourth! Some Rain and Thunder Could Dampen Fireworks West Side Tonight

MEOW-ZERS! The day to go All-American, 2011. Pets Included.

TODAY: So far this morning, as expected moisture from South Florida is working north and now well into most of South Central Florida. Expect that by day's end it will have reached to about the Beachline, with a nice moisture gradient in the mid-levels to be established roughly around South Central Brevard on the East Side during the late afternoon and waivering westward toward the north side of Tampa Bay.


It is along this gradient combined with a predominant easterly flow in the low levels and likely Bay and/or west coast Gulf Breezes that the strongest storms today should occur toward early evening. Above this low level generally easterly flow, there is a weak mid-level current running from the SW to NE across South Central toward Central Florida. This might be enough for a weak thunderstorm or line of showers to form along the west side of the intracoastals of Brevard. Due to weak steering in the 11AM- 1PM time frame, some weak funnel-ish type clouds could form (small funnel clouds) anywhere from under the most tall cloud lines as rain starts to fall , or shortly thereafter (assuming this can even occur at all).  Otherwise, the combined efforts of geography and winds could place a heavier rain shower toward weak thunderstorm to occur somewhere around North Merritt Island toward Port St John before 1:30pm, especially as the sea-breeze is about to move in.  Lighter showers could also occur as far north as South or Central Volusia County west of the intracoastals.

YELLOW: Where Thunder Could Most LIKELY Occur. I've probably left too much out over SW Florida, but not so sure this area will receive a sea breeze today, so left it out given the early hour of the day and therefore, greater uncertainty regarding the events that will transpire today.  But, did throw in the area from Naples and North for extra measure for late this afternoon for perhaps a briefly stronger storm.

BLUE: The area near Tampa Bay into Polk County and maybe further north toward Spring Hill might eventually squeek out a stronger storm or two (which was not included) after 8PM as the moisture gradient lifts north even further, if it does.

GREEN: Where westward moving showers South Florida could form, and nearly stationary Central Florida early in the day before the sea breeze kicks in an pretty much kills any shower activity to the east of its westward bound passage.

TUESDAY: Even though moisture will be present, trying to determine just exactly where the rains will occur is a tough call. It appears that despite this fact, rain chances might be hard to come by other than near the SE-E coast overnight and early morning and more toward the West Side almost anywhere late in the day as the atmosphere becomes  'homogenized'.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY; Moisture increases and a variety of scenarios could unfold. Either way, by most likely Thursday is when there should be an uptick in coverage over almost anywhere in the state, with some stronger storms likely on Thursday and/or Friday.

FRIDAY: Launch could still be in jeopardy, if for nothing more than the cloud types which should form with Precipitable water values over 2" present.

BEYOND: Looks like a prolonged one week of high PWAT (lots of moisture beginning Thursday). The nature of rain activity does not particularly conducive for strong storms, but rather more of the garden variety with warmer air aloft and little in boundaries. Sea breezes collisions might be hard to come by wiht a near uniform flow across the state. At time..it appears the I-4 Corridor will have the best chances of better storms as well as the northern Flanks of Lake Okeechobee and surrounding areas.

Could be a break in the rain activity going into Monday. After which point a weak frontal boundary could sink from the north toward North Central Georgia, providing better impetus for more organized storms over North and portions of North Central Florida by Friday going into the Weekend.