August 12, 2003 (Update: 2pm)

Cumulus Along I-95 near noon


KSC 15Z Sounding for 8/12/09

FIRST OFF: I want to apologize for the formatting of some of these posts. I can't control where or how the images are displayed nor make the type column wider (unless I go into indepth, time-consuming HTML decoding)

Local Wx Update: I can sum up this update in one word after having time to digest the latest "everything" - DISAPPOINTING. It seemed promising while driving along I-95 around noon with fairly vigorous Cu going up alquads...needless to say I think that was the highlight of the day. Seabreeze by now has reached I-95 while the west coast one is meandering and not really moving at all. So much for the seabreeze collision theory. Additionally, later sounding data is in as shown (click to enlarge). In comparing this with the earlier post, the PWATs (precipitable water values) have actually dropped and winds other than the surface are 5 kts. or less essentially. In other words, no steering, little moisture except at the lowest levels, less than moderate instability all leads to the following: ----

Today: Convective activity up and down the West coast of the peninsula plus a weak gulf breeze will send out various boundaries into the interior but no further than to generate additional activity from Orlando west. This in turn may send out yet additional boundaries further east which will eventually meet the by then east coast seabreeze near the exact spine around 5pm. Outflows from these activities (showers/storms) will most likely not make it as far as I-95 except further north from Flagler County northbound where some good storms may blossom. Not expecting any sunset activity in the immediate area given all of the above.

Tropical Activity: Another let down. The closest tropical wave (of now many) will likely not make it near C. Florida as the ridge indeed will join forces and block northward progress as discussed yesterday (as a possibility). Additionally, the previously mentioned "potential hurricane" is already history. Gee, this is starting to sound like deciding when to hit the Plains for chasing (sound familiar?). And to add insult to injury, we will be in this so so pattern for a few days until what's left of the wave passes by...then steering currents will most definitively be coming from an easterly component on the back side of the passing wave meaning, no coastal thunderstorms.

But wait!!: There's always tomorrow and another model run. Ah...the life.

"Its seems to me a change is really needed, I'm sick of tra la las, and la de das"

August 12, 2003 (9:00AM)

I'll start off this morning with only the local outlook as that 's all time allows at the moment, but an update to the post and other details will be made by 2pm. Can hardly wait : - ) !!

The morning 10z KSC sounding is shown, click to enlarge.

Today's "Synopsis": As expedited, the trough/ridge Transition is now in Phase 2 with the low level ridge axis in the process of moving south to around Ft. Pierce if not further south. The mid-upper level axis' are right over us as I write and will migrate a tad further south throughout the day in varying degrees. Looks like the Cumberland Plateau trough will penetrate the ridge which will change EVERYTHING late this afternoon from how it is this morning. Thus, I don't put much forecast faith in using this sounding as a "sounding board". What it shows most importantly is the transition from yesterday. Actually, moisture is a smidge better than yesterday but not great.

What this means: Winds wise, expecting a land breeze until noon time followed by a SE-SSE wind around 10mph. Mid levels are general south at 10mph or less and upper levels to become SSW-SW. Surface/Thermal trough down the spine of the state is forecast to develop by all models midafternoon providing a focal point for seabreeze collision, with the collision to occur just EAST of Orlando around 5pm. Expect storms could go up about anywhere along the line up but favoring the Central Peninsula for collision storms in this time frame with even earlier convection along both seabreezes further south.

Current Planning: Might head out toward east Osceola County (contingent upon next update) as things evolve. Not expecting wide coverage as there is some slight capping..but moderate instability and a relatively low convective temperature should overcome that. Moisture is not great either..thus enhancing the low coverage reasoning. Expect once stuff goes up anvil will be spread toward the coast post-haste, so gotta get the earlier ones along the seabreeze collision or all will be lost due to that umbrella.

Possiblities Being Considered: Contingent upon how far east something goes up and how far south the mid-level ridge exis sinks south, there is a remote chance for activity to reach the coast at or after dark which may provide for lighting pix ops. Hoping for something a little more isolated and very pretty today wherever it happens, but not necessarily strong or severe.

Tropics: Post to follow later by early afteroon