I'll start off this morning with only the local outlook as that 's all time allows at the moment, but an update to the post and other details will be made by 2pm. Can hardly wait : - ) !!
The morning 10z KSC sounding is shown, click to enlarge.
Today's "Synopsis": As expedited, the trough/ridge Transition is now in Phase 2 with the low level ridge axis in the process of moving south to around Ft. Pierce if not further south. The mid-upper level axis' are right over us as I write and will migrate a tad further south throughout the day in varying degrees. Looks like the Cumberland Plateau trough will penetrate the ridge which will change EVERYTHING late this afternoon from how it is this morning. Thus, I don't put much forecast faith in using this sounding as a "sounding board". What it shows most importantly is the transition from yesterday. Actually, moisture is a smidge better than yesterday but not great.
What this means: Winds wise, expecting a land breeze until noon time followed by a SE-SSE wind around 10mph. Mid levels are general south at 10mph or less and upper levels to become SSW-SW. Surface/Thermal trough down the spine of the state is forecast to develop by all models midafternoon providing a focal point for seabreeze collision, with the collision to occur just EAST of Orlando around 5pm. Expect storms could go up about anywhere along the line up but favoring the Central Peninsula for collision storms in this time frame with even earlier convection along both seabreezes further south.
Current Planning: Might head out toward east Osceola County (contingent upon next update) as things evolve. Not expecting wide coverage as there is some slight capping..but moderate instability and a relatively low convective temperature should overcome that. Moisture is not great either..thus enhancing the low coverage reasoning. Expect once stuff goes up anvil will be spread toward the coast post-haste, so gotta get the earlier ones along the seabreeze collision or all will be lost due to that umbrella.
Possiblities Being Considered: Contingent upon how far east something goes up and how far south the mid-level ridge exis sinks south, there is a remote chance for activity to reach the coast at or after dark which may provide for lighting pix ops. Hoping for something a little more isolated and very pretty today wherever it happens, but not necessarily strong or severe.
Tropics: Post to follow later by early afteroon
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