Pattern Shift Continues - In full Swing Wednesday

Developing Thunderstorm on Monday Southeast of  Orlando along the County Line. Lightning was coming down in the Clear Area (center of image)

TODAY: Not much change in thinking/reasoning from yesterday's post. Today will be a bit of blend from "'what was yesterday' vs.  'what will be tomorrow'" as moisture increases from the SSE direction.


Expect some showers to first form along the SE Section of the state near the coast and to work northward up the East Coast sea-breeze with other showers forming between I-95 and US1 East Central early afternoon along Brevard. Outflows toward the west and NW along with a prevalent, but very light SSE layer flow from the surface to 15,000 ft will work boundaries toward the west coast with activity becoming stronger the further west (and later in the day) that it spreads. Strongest storms could occur in red as noted..but those areas are more  mainly depicted to show how renegade/random and difficult to pin-point rather than exact locations those storms will be. Best chances are that strongest storms will be very late toward the west coast with a stronger interior one possible where outflows from earlier activity meet larger inland lake breezes by total happen-chance with the main issue being timing.

WEDNESDAY: Relative to today, Wednesday is tomorrow where moisture will have increased by over 1/2" in the Precipitable water fields. Greater coverage, with some possibly tweaking the east coast barrier islands anytime from noon on  - working south to north as far as North Brevard. Wide coverage with earlier onset all areas (early-mid afternoon) and dying off by dark as the atmosphere gets worked over. This might be the east coast's best rain chance day (meaning barrier islands and the A1A strip down to West Palm Beach).


THURSDAY-SATURDAY: This three-day epilogue of days appears fairly similar with minor variations each day. Watching for early day activity along the east coast intracoastals transitioning inland and to the west as the days go by. With good coverage  justifying a 50-60% chance of rain (on TV News Channels that are inland, of course). For the coast (East) chances more like 35% for total coastal coverage (at best).


SUNDAY/MONDAY: Transition period toward activity shifting more toward the east side, although moisture in the atmosphere by then might be less available for Tuesday complete pattern shift. Too soon to say for sure.

Downburst of rain might have caused some folks gusty winds for a period nearby yesterday. Moments before this was shot there was no rain falling from this developing thunderstorm, although several lightning strikes did occur BEFORE the rain current became truly visible.