Remote Chance of a Near Severe Storm Today

"Storm to the West" - 7:30pm Thursday near the Marinas at Port Canaveral

Yesterday a few strong storm  reports came in from activity near Bithlo in Orange County   near Wedgefield and Bithlo and toward the ENE. Much activity that was also likely strong occurred over uninhabited swamp like land, ; one report of small hail also came in. The activity hit the east coast sea breeze west of I95, but managed to progress east toward the coast in North Brevard. Other weaker activity occurred further north earlier near DAB and the Titusville area toward Mims had two shots at rain. A severe report came in that limbs 'the size of a wrist' were broken, but specifics as to whether that was a newborn's wrist or a Sumi Wrestles remains sketchy...the search is on.

 The outflow gust front feature progressed toward Cape Canaveral  and Cocoa Beach.

TODAY: As expected, dry air O-rama in the mid-levels and warm to hot inland in the absence of more clouds and light inland winds. There is not a shortage of low level moisture though with an inversion above ground low enough to preclude formation of big cumulus clouds until later and in-land. SO 'going out a limb' (the size of a wrist) there is a small chance of a storm very late near Lake County as a result of a sea breeze collision which would mount up low level moisture and because low and mid-level lapse rates would be pretty darned strong, it could be near-severe. Any upward momentum that could escalate a storm to the upper levels could end up being fairly impressive but of short life span due to slow storm motion. Any said such event though is highly conditional on other numerous factors.   I see model guidance painting green brush strokes all around Tampa Bay, but given the current tested atmospheric conditions via morning sounding data, would think that either something goes BOOM in a big way, or barely ekes out a drop of rain at all.

SATURDAY: Slightly more coverage of activity tomorrow near I-4 and toward the interior or western interior down to SW Florida and the Glades, as moisture increases and remnant haze clears out.


SUNDAY: Different day entirely. Latest guidance is a bit askew concerning when deeper moisture will work north beyond South Florida. Southerners  might be seeing showers south of the Lake before 10AM if not at sunrise, with activity progressing north through mid morning and early afternoon. Whether or not the immediate east coast north of Indian River County gets wet is even sketchier with model timing differences as big as a full 12 hours. Thus, Sunday afternoon at the beach north of Vero or Ft. Pierce might not be all so bad after-all, with the better chance of rain not arriving until after dark.


MONDAY: Pretty good chances of showers and storms almost state wide with the east side seeing activity with some lightning just about any time beyond 1PM in the afternoon, Hard to say for sure.


BEYOND: Another slot of SAL might come in taking rain chances down to isolated Tuesday through Friday.