Early Onset of Showers/Storms, Heavier Activity Concentration East and SE Coasts

Radar and Satellite show showers have already erupted West Side
and should move generally to the east at 15-22mph through late morning
Small chance some stronger activity could amass OR larger
rainfall totals will result somewhere along the east coast by end of day
but exactly where is a tough call. Big totals occurred yesterday
exceeding 3-4" near Martin County 

TODAY: Good chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm (perhaps more than one) in many locations today with early onset of activity and the KSC sounding coming in with a 500mb temperature of -10C, which is cold for this time of year. Winds aloft from the west at 20 kts combined with the cold air could result in strong but sub-severe winds gusts in the vicinity of storms and in heavier downpours, but lack of sea breeze on the east coast makes things tricky on the truly strong storm call.

FULL MOON AT 6:00 AM

Due to the stronger winds of at least 15 kts closer to ground level, a sea breeze might be hard to come by except toward far southeast Florida.

SATURDAY: Yet again cold air aloft, but steering could slow down a bit, and hence a better chance of a sea breeze further north, otherwise, not much change but inevitably each and every day differs from the others, so we'll can play it as it comes and see what parameters are in place when that time comes.

BEACH FOLIAGE IN BLOOM HAS COMMENCED RECENTLY

SUNDAY: Sea breezes to be in place this day with continued cold air aloft due to an upper level open low pressure circulation. Suspect this day might have the strongest storms with the added bonus of low level convergence due to the sea breeze collison toward the east side of the state. Hard to say if storms will actually reach the east coast south of the Cape this day. There 'might' be some earlier day showers and some thunder near the beaches though, so that will be watched if one is concerned with early day outside activities in that area.

JETTY PARK PREPARATIONS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING

BEYOND: Monday-Wednesday could have some early morning showers at the beaches and just offshore, but beyond that point is where the GFS CONTINUES to bring a tropical entity in the form of a sold CAT 1 if not CAT 2 hurricane across South and Central Florida (the previous run showed Central and North Florida), impacting the state by June 24th and crossing the state on the 25th. Again, this is too far out in time to place reliance on and the model has been showing something tropical to occur in the extended time frame since late May. Otherwise, the surface to low level ridge axis resides near I-10 with the neat result being early east coast sea breeze advancement toward the Center of the State and best chances of storms well west of I-95 each day.

 

LONE BEACH STAND, CAPE CANAVERAL