TODAY: Light onshore flow this morning will quickly become South to SSW mid-late morning. Steering aloft is already from the SSW and will become more SW as well. Deep moisture in excess of 2 inches through the "atmospheric column" (precipitable water) combined with instability as measured by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Indices (LI) (though only moderate) would yield localized high rainfall totals most anywhere but especially along the East Coast from as far north as Jax toward Ft Pierce where the sea breeze will run more parallel to the shore.
Other higher totals might occur further inland over the Everglades region south of Lake O. Since rainfall totals of the past week have added up, wouldn't be surprised if a Flash Flood advisory were to be in order for the next few days, especially focused on areas that have already received more rains and have pour drainage. For example, the GFS has varied on exactly where such higher totals could occur, but has almost always shown Brevard County along to east of I-95 as a particular area of interest for two days now.
TUESDAY: Frontal boundary to work into Central Florida and begin to undergo frontalysis (weakening) and might get hooked up across the Beach Line latitude until after dark . Rains decrease from I-4 and north with a primary focus more from near Port St John or Canaveral west toward South Tampa Bay and all regions south (favoring interior and east side). This might end up being a day where a select area will see abundantly more rains than most other areas as opposed to vast areal coverage (but toward the east side ).
WEDNESDAY: Guidance has been flaky coming into Wednesday. Latest two GFS runs imply the boundary will enter to South Florida but be extremely 'shallow' in depth with Westerly type winds just above 'the deck' remaining. Sea breeze convergence type activity might be limited toward interior areas running from Canaveral west to Tampa in general but could drift toward the east. Other areas further north do not appear to be completely exempt though.
THURSDAY - might be a variation of Wednesday with decreasing rain chances but for South Florida.
BEYOND: Another front will be approaching on Friday into Saturday with one of both days once again exhibit higher rain chances, though this time it doesn't appear to be any form of a 'prolonged' event as this front is continuously being shown to pass through making for THE FIRST COOL MORNING of the season on Sunday. Some 50Fs even possible interior I-4 and north. However, it will be rather short -lived for those along the immediate east coast as easterly winds blowing off warm ocean waters will follow in suit by later that day and days to come with highs remaining maybe in the lower 80Fs Sunday but back to mid 80Fs to warmer than that interior of days to follow.
TROPICS: GFS is implying a system might form in the Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan for several runs. "Tis the Season' for such as it is, and might bear watching as the latter front might lay dormant in this region making for impetus tropical storm formation.
At this time of year, it is not unusual for a storm to form there to move toward at least South Florida or just off to the east of Florida. *recalling Irene
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