It's looking more and more now (on a consistent basis across model runs and various models) that the 'Official Start to The Florida Wet Season' will be on its way early to mid week next week in the June 10th to June 12th time frame.
What that means (from the bloggers perspective) is that the overall atmospheric moisture content (precipitable water)(moisture available to produces rain and clouds) from the surface up through 20,000 feet will increase appreciably and noticeably, with values almost consistent at or above 1.75" (in winter it is often below 0.50").
This will also mean an increase in dew point temperatures (readings in the mid-upper 70Fs almost all the time), which means much higher heat index values with that real muggy feel to the air morning, noon, and night.
With increased atmospheric moisture comes greater instability combined with the high sun angle (and heat) which helps the sea breeze circulation (convection oven) get baking putting the afternoon thunderstorms machine in high gear.
Thunderstorm intensity determined by how cold the air is well aloft as well as how strong the winds aloft are. Typically in the summer there is very little to no wind shear (no strong) winds, so the primary driver on storm intensity is the temperatures aloft (the colder they are the more ferocious the storms can be) as well as what type of boundary collision occurs at the surface.
As it is, the temperatures aloft will not be unusually cold next week, so we will be looking at 'typical activity' but there may still be some stronger storms mainly late day/early evening where there is multiple boundary collisions converging together which results in greater upward forcing.
These 'boundaries' are a combination of the east/west coast sea breezes combined with lake breeze boundaries PLUS outflow boundaries produced from the result of outflow from showers/storms that form earlier in the day coming together.
The rain is needed though as currently most of Central and South Florida are in varying degrees of drought, so not a minute too soon!
What this all means is that we are generally right on schedule. The 'Wet Season' can begin as soon as the last week in May to as late as the third week in June (typically). With the atmospheric moisture increase comes increased humidity, but also an increase on rain/thunderstorm activity driven by lake and sea breezes normally (but not always). It also means that with increased cloud coverage the unusually hot temperatures we've been seeing lately (mostly inland) will go down a bit closer to 'normal'.
As we might expect this time of year, tropical activity will begin to wave its flag primarily in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean region. The Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't really get going until mid-late August and is 'typically' VERY quiet in July. But June is known for some big storms in Gulf of Mexico, and already model guidance is hinting at various times and locations that s tropical storm might develop in the next two weeks 'somewhere'. Even a hurricane or tropical storm can be threat without a direct hit, because when storms move up from the south, west of the state, the tornado risk might be increased.
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