Surprise Surprise, Thunder Chance Arise!

As Noted, slightly to much better chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially Southern 1/3 of state

TODAY: Much contested return , if not first days  , of true summer like weather cannot go unchallenged per Florida climatology. With Debby well away, and a series of impulses which have resulted in widespread severe weather reports across states to the north the past 2-3 day eroding the mid-level pocket of high pressure, the air mass cannot help but slowly modify toward seasonal norms in regard to ample atmospheric moisture substantial enough for thunderstorm generation. Yes,a bit slowly, but nonetheless it is occurring today.


Large clusters of thunder to the north sent a mammoth tidal wave of outflow across the north with subsidence in its wake. As the waters are settled there a remnant slosh affect aloft may have left a pool of moisture toward Ocala and surrounding jungles of interior North to North Central. This appears will slide south to SSW today as noted in the Orange area.


Further South , moisture convergence from Lake and Ocean breeze boundaries could well result in some later afternoon through evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance indicates some good coverage and a few high end poppers, although latest official NWS forecasts do not reflect that to be the case at all. However, given that undoubtedly there are some 'invisible ripples' aloft tootling around up there, it may not hurt for folks in those areas to keep an eye to the sky as they could act as triggers. Much of the activity if it manifests would be over un-low populated areas except toward Western Portions of the SE Metropolii.


Further north of the Lake, would not pass up the chance for some showers or thunder to erupt toward dinner time to sunset (or a bit sooner) as moisture converges along the sea and Lake Boundaries. There is a slice of dry air in the mid levels today bi-secting the state, and given the overall synoptic scale set up this would more than likely act as a prohibitive factor for anything to develop there, at least that is how it appears so far. From the looks of it  from here, it does not appear anything could possibly form within 1000 miles , but that is not the case as satellite and radar are manifesting activity arising near the Ocala Safari Jungles. 


Point is when push comes to shove, most if anyone of the readers (if there is any) who see this will not see rain today but will be able to potentially see it in the distance if they know what to look for, even as close as Brevard County.  Given model outputs last hour, the southern 1/3 could actually be in for a good smattering which is totally contradictory to forecast discussions I am reading. Never sell remnant outflows combined with moisture convergence short in the summer in the first week of July across Florida.


BEYOND: Increasingly better chances of thunder with each day, although Tuesday or Wednesday might be yet another transitional day before Thursday -  Saturday when at which point it could end up being a daily struggle with pin-pointing just where and when the storms (or strongest/best storms) will exist. The trend has been to favor the east side, and not so coincidentally, matching up with GFS runs from over a week ago, lest we forget. The immediate coast north of West Palm might even get in on the act.