Greater Storm Coverage Today - Very Warm Friday/Saturday Even at the Coast - Then...

Vertical Standing Shelf Cloud Moves In -July 26, 2014 Cape Canaveral

 TODAY: Day 2 of same theme, only with a bit more moisture  with slightly better wind fields to work with. Mid-level area of low pressure slowly taking shape over the Deep South as upper level trough moves east through the Great Lakes region to eventually sync going into Sunday-Tuesday time frame. But for today..

More warm temperatures before rains develop with high heat index readings. Best chance for convergence of sea breeze boundaries appears will run a line from JAX along the St. John's River Valley basin through Central to Western Volusia , down toward Eastern portion of Osceola County and take a curve toward the WSW-SW to near the Fort Myers area.

Largest rainfall totals appears will occur from near SR 50 and north. Though there could be an isolated stronger storm the bigger news will be lightning and larger rainfall totals near or west of I95 suspected somewhere near Seminole County, perhaps eastern Orange into parts of Osceola County. Best opportunity for storms to clear the coast is from Volusia County and north though some activity in a weakened state might be able to drift offshore from near or north of Melbourne Beach.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  Next pattern begins for two days. Pressure gradient to increase from the SW direction. The east coast sea breeze might be held off until mid afternoon north of Vero Beach (or so) which , if so, could take temperatures even at the beaches from say Cocoa Beach and north into the mid-90Fs. The sea breeze might not manifest at all for Volusia County and north.

Historically, a 'good SW flow' at the surface in the absence of cloud cover tends to pile up the heat along the far eastern side of the state north of Lake Okeechobee. Gander  that from Ft Pierce and north might see some solid mid 90Fs..whereas further south the better chance of showers/storms (St Lucie County and south).

 There will be little if any storms around Central though never say never, it just looks slim.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Pattern change. Low pressure over much of the southeast places Florida  clearly in cyclonic flow aloft and at the surface. Sunday is now coming into the picture as an active day along with Monday. 

The Frontal Boundary associated with the  developing synoptic scale scene is expected to make it as far south as potentially I-4; even a 'cold front' as far as July standards are concerned. 

(Morning temperatures further north over the region along and east of the Mississippi are forecast to fall even into the lower-mid 50Fs in some areas; meaning some areas that were hit hard by heat not too long ago such as Tennessee will now experience a flip-side)

On this Date in 2014, Off Cape Canaveral

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will likely follow along similar themes but exactly what that will be is hard to say. Temperatures beginning Sunday or at least by Monday will not be nearly as warm due to increasing cloud cover, as rain chances will also have increased. Working into Tuesday the flow increasingly becomes more WSW - West with much lower chance of sea breezes (probably none). How cloudy it will actually be though could well determine afternoon rain chances and locations. Thunder will still be possible. The GFS implies Tuesday is more or less a 'wash out' for some areas or perhaps just a  'cloud out'...

BEYOND: Pattern continues to remain 'unsettled' (to put it lightly) all through to Saturday of NEXT WEEKEND after this upcoming one.