Warming trend commences later today into the overnight (especially notable right along the Eastern most barrier islands by Wednesday morning) as high pressure north of the state drifts eastward resulting in northeast wind (though light) later today and all through the night. There is a chance, however, that the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure will not over-come the diurnal cooling effects overnight tonight, thus allowing a 'land breeze' to 'win the day' at the coast instead. Overall, inland areas will still be quite cool Wednesday morning, but the outer most barrier islands do have a chance that at some point after 3-4AM they will actually warm to the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs rather than be in the lower 50Fs. Otherwise, no rain.
The warming trend continues through the 23rd (Wednesday) and into the 24th (*Christmas Eve) as wind becomes southwesterly and increases. We could see mid-upper 70Fs on Christmas Eve Day -- it might even be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while.
On the other hand, a line of potentially strong storms will be entering the Panhandle Region by early-mid morning and be progressing eastward ahead of a potent Cold Front. There is a risk that some storm activity might go up well ahead of the actual line too, specifically across South Central toward South Florida (from a line near Cape Canaveral to Sarasota and south) at any time after 3 or 4pm Christmas Eve. Though that is an outlier risk, the better chance of rain now appears to be at some point between 6:30pm - 9pm in the evening.
There is a chance still that some activity could be strong/severe but the official outlets are not calling for that to be the case -regardless, we will have strong shear overhead - so at least it could get 'very windy' when the rains come in , whenever that will be.
CHRISTMAS DAY - Day After: The cold front itself is expected to be situated very close to Central Brevard County along a Northeast to Southwest Line some time around 8 or 9PM and be plowing southeastward through the state with solid cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures falling through the evening and into the morning hours accompanied by wind anywhere from 15mph -25mph with higher gusts.
Very cool and blustery ALL DAY Christmas Day - the NAM model suggests that Central Florida won't even reach 50F degrees this day, but suspect overkill. In any case, highs may only be in the lower 50S to upper 40Fs across much of Central/North Central Florida (warmer south). Then, as darkness comes Christmas Evening, the wind should start to die off and temperatures will really go down.
I've seen forecasts (such as from the Canadian model) showing upper 20Fs for interior portions of Central Florida on the morning of the 26th, but that is an outlier. Most guidance suggests mid-upper 30Fs just about everywhere and anywhere. However we look at it, it's going to be a chilly morning on the 26th and the 27th (not so much along the coast on the 27th).
DECEMBER 28: There will be a gradual warm up toward 'normal' temperatures beginning Sunday afternoon but it might be brief, as it looks like a re-enforcing front is going to be coming through (dry) only to keep the temperatures to below normal (though not as cold as what will be experienced on the 25th through the morning of the 27th).
BEYOND: No big 'really cold' spells are showing up as of yet -- just for fun I looked at a climatological forecast series and it showed that February might be above to well above 'normal' in regard to temperatures . Who knows, maybe these up coming days will be the 'coldest' we'll see all winter.
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