Will The "Elusive Tropical Anomaly" (ETA) be a SWAK Threat ( or "Where's The Rain-X?) !"

 

Developing ETA South Of Cuba Saturday Afternoon , November 7 2020

 

By now all are well aware that a 'Tropical Threat" is encroaching upon Florida later this weekend into early next week. For all official forecasts please refer to the National Hurricane Center   for latest information regard ETA and/or the local National Weather Forecast Office for your location.

To eliminate repetition of what all the forecast offices will be putting out and already are, this post will be relatively brief but also mention a few points that might not yet have made mainstream or unofficial outlets   

For "EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA" (specifically),  based on current timing of multiple model output consensus in general, the heaviest weather overall and onset  of it will begin over The Keys and Far South Florida  then progressively work north with time going into late Sunday - Over Night Sunday Night - and into Monday (most specifically for North Central and Parts of North Florida as far north possibly as even the JAX area on Monday and/or even Tuesday.

The Blog Post will make one observation (though not-official) and that is as you watch forecasts on 'TV" or other sources, realize that the 'worst of the weather' at times will NOT necessarily be near the central circulation (or whatever one might call an 'eye' ). 

IN fact, there is data output which indicates that the stormiest points at certain times might be well more than 200NM from the Center. For example, when/if  'ETA" were to be centered just west of Ft Myers (as an example) the worst of the weather could be occurring along the Coast of Brevard County, which brings up another point. All in all, the strongest surface wind associated with ETA appears will occur at the immediate coast from near Vero Beach and south, with gusts up to and exceeding 55MPH possible, with the secondary area of 'not quite as strong at times' extending as far north as near the Volusia/Brevard County line. So far, Brevard County is being 'pegged' in more than one instance as a 'potential' for gusts will above 55mph due to the wind that would develop at the 2000-5000 ft level above ground come post Midnight Sunday night into the first half of Monday as the storm's girth increases, especially after sunrise Monday.

Likewise, the largest storm rainfall totals from beginning to end of this event will be near to 50 NM of the east coast in about the same areas. That is not to say there could be isolated 'events/locations' further north or west as well.

Overall, based on current trends - ETA will be making it's greatest impacts all day SUNDAY (far South Florida) and then working northward overnight Sunday night into Monday. The most volatile (and unfortunately most dangerous time) based on current model out put will be from near 9PM Sunday night through to near Sunrise Monday morning from Far South Brevard county to near West Palm Beach.  Areas further north in Brevard would also see some 'active' weather in isolated storm cells PRIOR to SUNRISE Monday; however,  the bulk of the greatest impacts north of Sebastian Inlet would be during daylight hours Monday...of course, there is a 'timing issue' and has the chance of being 'highly variable' and changing over the course of the next 18-30 hours. Therefore, the 'timing indicated' in this post is for 'example' only.

 

    ETA will be the 29th  'Recognized' Storm System'  ever to occur in the month of November within 300 NM of Cocoa Beach, Florida.  

Also note that it will be the FIRST OF THESE STORMS to take a track that crossed Cuba then takes a LEFT TURN. As can be seen in the image below, all previously known tracks show storms lifting north and curving to the right

In regard to ETA and Central/North Florida - the heaviest weather from ETA appears will occur when the Storms Central Circulation (per latest official forecast track) is over or near the keys to  approximately 120 NM  west or northwest of Ft Myers , that's assuming the storm takes the forecast track.

Pay not too close attention the storms CENTER ! ..higher winds at lower levels of the atmosphere from 2000-5000 feet above ground could be just asstrong , if not stronger well away from the Center  , especially Sunday night going into Monday (assuming the forecast track holds). These winds could work to the surface in areas of rain bands resulting in SQUALL GUSTS of 70mph + (this is 'worst case scenario' type stuff)  I expect there will be large differences between the sustained winds vs. GUSTS during the time of heavier rain squalls or storms, especially on MONDAY.

This brings up the other "ISSUE" from the Blogger's Standpoint. 

That being The High Speed Dirt concern - or, in this case more like  Speeding Water of Another Kind (SWAK)

TORNADO RISK

All available data from the 4KM NAM, HRRR and GEFS shows that there will be a TORNADO risk and at times a possibly significant one from low topped tornadic supercell structures within or even apart from incoming squalls. Isolated , rotating storms appear will be most likely from the Keys along the east coast to about 50 miles inland especially OVERNIGHT Sunday night along eastern portions of South and South Central.  This risk could extend (based on current timing) as far north as Southern/Central Brevard County. But again realize, TIMING of all things referred to in this post is subject to change, which will mostly likely be the case. 

Bear in mind that The TORNADO RISK  at times could be FAR from the storm's Center 

For example, if ETA were to be 20 Miles west of Ft Myers the biggest tornado threat might be near the Kennedy Space Center (!), that far away, yes. That is due to the fact that as mentioned earlier, there will be sufficient low level bulk -shear and accompanying 'helicity' in the same levels, COUPLED WITH heat from the near shore Atlantic Water providing for some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). So we'll have 'CAPE" plus 'HELICITY" and BULK SHEAR" ..  all occurring within the lowest levels of the atmosphere.   There could be, thus, LAND FALLING TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS or flat out tornadoes when they develop over land.

Looking above: The Greater Tornado Risk (working from South to North will be along the Florida east coast to up to 20-40 NM inland south of South Brevard PRIOR to sunrise, Monday morning, then from that point on the risk increases esp. after 10AM-11AM MONDAY as 'daylight' hours will provide additionally HEATING and the mid level winds begin to expand around the central circulation.

  

Will such activity actually occur though? Whether it ACTUALLY does or not, it looks rather certain that we will at least by hearing Tornado Warnings being issued (if not many of them) from Miami Northward possibly as far north as The JAX NWS office.

 Time to put THE RAIN-X on your Car and pull in the yard furniture and other outside things and be prepared for POWER OUTAGES in some areas and in some more prone areas (especially South Florida), flooding.

 At this point, 'storm surge' does not appear will be too much an issue THOUGH high tides will be running 'VERY HIGH" and could result in beach erosion, the rivers could also come up higher than normal ...

More to come ..another post will be made TOMORROW ...by then, we can monitor SEVERAL more runs of all available models I have access to - and also Follow THE TREND each model takes. This blog will be watching mainly the TORNADO RISK as the other information is posted FAR AND WIDE over the Media and made available most Readily over the internet from multiple sources, both official and unofficial.