Rain Today, Gone Tomorrow

Image: Computer generated depiction of how convoluted the surface features are forecast to be at 1pm

Very complicated reflection at the surface of what is happening aloft this morning (as you can see by the surface features provided in the image above). Despite all the complications involved, it currently appears that the threat of severe weather, or even thunder for that matter, is pretty low.

It does appear to me that there could be rotating storms if they existed sometime after 4pm; however, all resources including various offices as well as the models, indicate that by that time the rain my very well be over. I'd have to guess that the atmosphere is so worked over from this long duration rain as well as lack of (thermal) instability is off-setting anything that might make an "attempted act" (as one fellow chaser likes to call tornadoes).

TODAY: Low confidence forecast! Cloudy with light to moderate rain and maybe a rumble of thunder now and then. High today will probably not make it as warm as forecasted simply because of the rain. Let's take a shot at 71 degrees. Winds appear as though they will be light from a southerly component but pick up some by late afternoon as the front gets closer. The biggest challenge is determining just exactly when the rain will end, and if we'll actually have a 'storm' of sorts. By all indications it should be over by late afternoon and no storms, but I'm not thoroughly convinced! If we're going to get a storm it would be sometime in the 4-6pm time frame at the end of the rain period. Would be a nice finale wouldn't it? However, at this time it appears that when the parameters come together the rain will be out of the picture. Have I left you hanging? Now you know how I feel. Let's be optimistic though and go straight with the model forecast of ending the rain by mid-late afternoon with no storms.

TOMORROW: The parent low pressure that's causing all this 'weather' will be slowly oozing off to the east from the eastern U.S. coast approximately around Virginia-Maryland. It will be slow to move on so as a result circulation around it in combination with high pressure building in from the west will make for a breezy (from the west) day under partly cloudy skies and comfortably modest temperatures. It may actually end up being warmer along the coast than our previous "warm" days since we won't have a seabreeze advecting that cold air above the ocean's surface to the immediate coast. High in the low 70s and blustery.

TOMORROW NIGHT: Gradually waning west wind under partly cloudy skies and a low in the mid-upper 50s.

FURTHER OUT: Other than a weak frontal boundary affecting us on Wednesday the entire week will be uneventful. The next front on Wednesday will have only minor influence with a slight chance of showers for a yet to be determined small time frame...otherwise the next week looks to be close to what we would normally expect this time of year...just a few degrees cooler than what would be considered "normal". Lows in the mid-upper 50s and highs near 70 plus or minutes a degree or two after the front on Wednesday...before then in the low 70s.

When's the next big weather event? None on the horizon that can be stated with any degree of confidence.