Increased Rain/Storm Chances, Isolated Strong Storm Possible

Late Afternoon 'Convection" Offshore East Central Florida
which later  Delayed a Rocket Launch 

TODAY:  'Cold front ' as i'twere is located near I-10 this morning and based on forecasts appears will move very little during the day toward the latitude of Ormond Beach as the day progresses. Upper level cloud coverage might put a crimp on 'storm' and 'rain' chances with best convergence along the west and east coasts. Hard to ignore some of the higher wind parameters and lower 700mb temperatures aloft, so some storms could conceivably be 'quite breezy' to put it lightly in and in the vicinity of the heavier rain cores. The graphic shows spotty red areas for stronger activity but those are only to give an idea that some stronger storms could occur, though the greater likelihood appears to be from Seminole into Brevard, Indian River and St Lucie Counties.

WEDNESDAY: So far, not fully buying into what the TV Channel I was seeing yesterday was advertising. ..that being dry post frontal conditions except South Florida. The GFS has been inconsistent in regard to exactly how far south the drier air will reach. Noting that though this is being termed a cold front there really is no 'cold' air behind the boundary for Central and South Florida, only drier air through a deeper layer of the atmosphere. Will opt on the pessimistic side for Central Florida for the rain chances and throw in a chance of showers and/or thunder along and south of Rte 50 if not Rte 46  or a line running from Mims, FL west toward the North side of Tampa Bay. Better storm chances over South Central and South Florida, though.

THURSDAY: Low pressure circulation though weak will embody the entire state with a boundary running nearly across dead central if not a 'center' of circulation' over West Central somewhere . Best rain and storm chances up and down the entire east half of the peninsula (as opposed to dry all but South Florida as was heard on TV yesterday). No doubt, this blog easily could be out to lunch, but just to be on awares, is all.

BEYOND: The GFS continuously brings a tropical storm or minimal hurricane toward Florida only to curve north then eventually NE east of the Bahamas. There are several reasons in the future why that would be so, and it seems to be model consensus. Though some days will favor more the interior areas to the west coast, it's too early to say that the east coast couldn't see some morning activity even so on those days. In short, a return to summer like conditions other than the disruption in our pattern once whatever happens in the tropics happens and approaches the state which is always the case as  a general rule; anything that forms and heads toward Florida will put a damper on forecast accuracy the closer it approaches , indirectly.

Developing Thunderstorm near Indian Harbour Beach as viewed from Cape Canaveral