Timing on boundary collisions (esp. after 5pm) along with Lake Breezes and any sudden and unexpected surges of either the east or west coast sea breeze will impact the timing issues as well as storm strength.
A few storms could become strong, but the primary hazard will be wet roads and blinding rains, especially for folks 'fleeing the beaches' or just heading back home from them later in the afternoon. Lightning a greater hazard inland but possibly closer to the beaches of North Titusville and north of there where some of the stronger activity might be able to work off shore.
South of the Brevard/Volusia line activity might hold off altogether, but much depends on the timing issues and storm strength regarding whether or not 'lightning' can work east of I-95 or US1 since steering will only be about 8-10 mph and storms will have a hard time maintaining their integrity for a sufficient length of time to make the trek to the beach before losing their punch unless they can find a filling station along the way.
SUNDAY: Sunday looks very similar to today for all purposes, but undoubtedly there will be some idiosyncrasies yet to be known that might be revealed after today is through.
MONDAY: A similar day yet again, but activity might have a trend more interior and less east coast as "Dorian" which might hardly be in existence by then works west, and the ridge axis that has been east and south of Florida begins to lift north shifting activity by evening away from the east coast.
BEYOND: Depends on either remnant Dorian or weakly Depressed Dorian to non-existent Dorian. The GFS seems to say the remnants pass well south of Florida whereas the Euro continues a track toward Florida looking more like an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) rather than a tropical entity. Other models are not even acknowledging that Dorian even exists when they last were run last night if that tells us anything (which is probably should).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Looks like a big drying out time, not entirely, but the east coast might run in the clear (unless the Euro verifies) for quite a while for the most part.
PORT ST JOHN STORM LAST YEAR LATE JULY |
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