Truth or Consequences": In Weather It's Neither Nor

Colorized Schematic of Surface Temperatures Depicted Above with Orange toward Red being the warmest. In the next few days this will continue to be the case, that being, warmest overnight through mid-morning along the east coast from the Cape and South as SE-SSE winds continue. Afternoons warm all areas. Christmas Eve Day may yet be the warmest day of all with highs in the lower 80Fs in many areas 

TODAY:  Air Mass Modification in full swing since yesterday continues with winds having become more southeasterly as opposed to northerly on Sunday, modification in the sense that moisture in the lower levels is increasing and temperatures are becoming more comfortable (warmer if you like). This trend will continue through Christmas Eve day as noted yesterday. A cold front will approach from the Deep South region but never really be able to penetrate the bulbous region of high pressure located closely to that of a normal summer time regime, affectionately referred to as The Bermuda High which was amazingly more often than not absent during the summer months. In turn, cold winter like weather remains out of the equation for the time being, with temperatures running at to above normal through Christmas Eve Day, and potentially beyond.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY : The primary cold front is still being depicted to slide off and away from most of the state (to the north) , thanks to the high pressure zone across the state. Winds remain much like that of those today and tomorrow, with the air becoming warmer incrementally during this time frame. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how close one is located to and downwind of the cooler Atlantic Waters and larger inland lakes - cooling of the waters occurs with the lower height/sun angle with the formal approach to Winter now on December 22 at 12:30AM (Thursday morning just after Midnight).


With continued SE-SSE low level wind flow, moisture will increase enough for the possibility of light showers near the coast around late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly further inland across South Florida with the ever present stratocumulus clouds possible, especially late morning through early evening. 


CHRISTMAS EVE/SATURDAY: Winds will slowly be veering from SSE (south south east) toward the SSW-SW on Saturday as the next cold front approaches (and high pressure starts to move out of the picture). This could result in a cooler morning east coast, but much warmer all areas by afternoon contingent upon the amount of cloud coverage over any specific area. 


CHRISTMAS DAY: Cold front/cool front still forecast to be stretched across Central to South Central during the day as the front undergoes frontalysis (washes out). This could place Central to South Florida (somewhere in there) in a position for rainshowers and just maybe some thunder. It does not look as much likely for thunder though as the model run (of the GFS) had portrayed yesterday. The ECMWF (European Model) had a fairly good rationalization yesterday, and the two models seem to be coming to some sort of agreement that this front will not have a significant impact to our temperatures, only slightly noticeable.


Best chance for rainfall now appears to be overnight Christmas Eve and through the day after Christmas, although if the trend continues...combined with a basis of past fronts so far this season..that chance could easily end up decreasing...but not completely.


BEYOND: Although we might experience some mid-upper 40Fs interior and the north half of the state before the end of 2011, the GFS has had a habit of overforecasting low temperatures in the extended (making them too cold), so not ready to ride with that one yet..it is just to hard to believe how fortunate the warm weather lovers have been so far since climatological winter began on December 1.  But, we have not reached Mid-January through Early February, the real indicator. Tables can turn quickly.


In the long range, the Truth is yet to be known (is it ever?), the Consequence as far as weather is concerned  will be based on the Truth, and the affects on us will be how well we take responsibility to be prepared for the Circumstances.  By watching the models, the sky, and sometimes nature we can see the signs of things to come and which way to head.

"Sometimes the correct fork depends on the Circumstances, but I do like the arrow pointing up toward Blue Sky"