Chance of Showers/Storms Mainly SouthEast Half of Peninsula

August 1, 2014

TODAY: Only some minor changes in the pattern today from yesterday and so too is the case for tomorrow. In brief, the amount of peninsular wide moistening that was advertised for today during the previous 48 hours  for today did no materialize as expected . Ridge axis straining from out in the Desert SW continues to bridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico nosing into Florida. Most evident by dry mid levels and warm 10C tempratures at 700mb on the mesoscale analysis page. Lack of moisture in the contributing cloud layer for storms and no sign of significant moistening there today before dark at least, will make a post on that reasoning  not contingent upon a change in both parameter s prior to 7-8pm.

Better stor, chances, but not exclusively so, appear to be shown in the orange zones. Latest KSC Profiles are showing more of a southwest to northeast wind component in the lower atmospheric levels than one would be led to believe to be the case based on the KSC sounding taken earlier. This can be noted by cumulus clouds passing off shore the North/Central Brevard area as of this wiring to back it up. Winds earlier were south but have backed over the past few hours.  Thus, we might see some showers right over the Cape Area in general to Merritt Island before the day is through, but heavier thunder with a 500mb temp down to -7.5C could mean a stronger isolated storm or two in the annotated areas in general before the day is through, though the west coast sea breeze could remain almost completely inactive but for the southern 1/3 of the state which might make the boundary collision suddenly apparent later today into early this evening by a surprise storm or two toward Orange/Western VOlusia/Central Osceola to eastern Polk counties.

TOMORROW: Variation of today as it looks now  but haven't honestly dove too deep into it given the confusion of this day which has yet to resolve itself on paper, so there seemed little point in the matter.