Fallen Dewpoints Right on Schedule - But Tropics Might Heat Up !

TODAY: First frontal boundary of the Fall Calendar Season (which began only but yesterday) is in full swing even this morning with northerly winds and lows in the mid-upper 50Fs this morning in the western Florida Panhandle Region with those northerly winds having worked into Central Florida. The air mass, particularly south of I-4 won't be 'greatly' affected during this first 'full frontal assault' though. The main impacts once the boundary clears Central Florida (which will not be fully under Sunday) will be lower Dew point Temperatures. You might recall earlier this year a post proclaiming the onset of 'Summer' in which it was suggested the 'summer is truly here when the dew points never fall below 70F. Such has been the case the past couple of months (may it be known) but come Sunday into Monday for the first half of next week the forecast calls for falling dew point temperatures and a slight cooling otherwise as well. The main impact being it won't be as humid and 'heat indices' likewise will be lower. Highs will be mainly in the mid-upper 80Fs inland and lower to mid-80Fs along the coast especially as we get toward Monday - Wednesday of next week with dew points in the mid-lower 60Fs. The weekend itself appears will be all but dry with dew points in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F right at the beach itself. Otherwise, the only contender for rain chances north of a Melbourne to Tampa line and south of I4 will be today and perhaps on Friday. But come Saturday onward and especially Sunday through Tuesday there is about a zero chance of rain. Lows in the mornings won't be but a few degrees cooler but it will be noticeably drier giving a cooler 'feels like'. With these things said, the next subject at hand and probably hasty with it, is to watch the tropics or other odd 'anomalies' to occur in the upcoming 3-4 weeks. The time period of mainly ' from the last week of September through to the first week of November is notorious for atypical weather events such as 'no name storms', 'strong nor-easter' type weather', small scale heavy rain/large rainfall total events and last but not least - tropical systems.

 It is the 'Tropical Systems' realm we're investigating (for now) in this write up , and we'll keep it very brief. The GFS in the past two runs now (going out just beyond the unreasonable 10-day forecast time frame but very close to it) has shown two runs in a row  a tropical system to form between the eastern tip of Cuba and/or just east of the Bahamas and then moved westward to the Florida peninsula. At the same time a large and likely Strong Hurricane could be threatening Bermuda. This would all be toward NEXT weekend.

Below is the latter GFS Model run. Here it shows a landfall 'tropical system' centered near

just north of West Palm Beach' to move west across the state, enter the Tampa Region, then curve back eastward to exit the state off Central Brevard County. Does that sound reasonable to you? Not on my end it doesn't. The previous run was even 'spookier'. Tis the season I guess, but as we've noted earlier, we are coming to 'that time of year for anomalies'  .
 

As you can see, this is still well out in time and could easily change.

 The GFS has handled what 'might evolve' as being from latent energy associated with the front's passing through our areas in the next few days as they then nestle down in the frontal grave yard of the Florida Straits. 

But they might not be all dead just yet (!) is the point. It does appear that the GFS is trying to bring one 'back to life' as a cyclonically rotating system to cross Florida.

 The first option the model showed was not one but two (!) systems around the state all embedded within a large low pressure system. 

The latter run closed it up to one more organized system as seen above. 

No matter, could be interesting so just a heads up for now. Maybe by this time tomorrow the whole idea might have been completed abandoned. In the mean time, Fall has made a  very 'Timely' showing  this year , right to the calendar date.