Winter Weather: "It's Coming..." (Soon)

 

"It's Coming!"

TODAY - SATURDAY: Not much in the next few days to speak of other than 'moderating temperatures 'and pleasant. There might be a chance of showers (especially near the coast late overnight tonight) but otherwise pleasantly seasonal to slightly above seasonal norms (especially inland away from the ocean). Light, mostly ENE wind shifting more toward the southeast in the next few days with nearly clear to partly cloudy skies due to marine stratocumulus clouds coming in off the Atlantic near shore waters, effective from the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

SUNDAY: Cold front in the panhandle approaches 'down state' late in the day to overnight. There might be a risk of strong to severe storms across all of the panhandle in association with the front (however), and though shear overhead will be strong over all of Central Florida instability looks to be meager to non-existent and mostly due to speed rather than directional shear, which would normally equate to 'windy rainshowers' in the absence of instability at the lower levels.

MONDAY: Timing is still in question as to exactly when the full -fledged front will complete it's translation down the state. The time frame being anywhere from late Monday to mid-day Tuesday (as it stands now). Going for the most recent GFS release the front will go through on Monday morning but the driest air lags behind a good 12 hours or more. Suspect that model will pull it's act together a bit better in future days and resolve itself to a complete fropa (Frontal Passage) to occur on MONDAY completely. 

Either way, based on the timing of the GFS (other models aside) the first COLD MORNING of Winter 2020-2021 would be NEXT TUESDAY. Lows anywhere in North Central to Central Florida in the lower 40Fs through to near 50F and across the 30Fs over North Florida, and as you might expect, Windy at the same time. 

This will be a 'Shock to the System" type of frontal passage as all first true cold frontal passages tend to be over the state early in the season. We will have just gone through highs in the lower (to even some mid-80Fs) for several days in a row all through the Thanksgiving Weekend  so  a sudden 20-30F degrees temperature drop isn't exactly a yawn to experience.

Even Tuesday afternoon is  showing up to not even reach 60F but rather mid-upper 50Fs. Will this change? My guess is yes. The GFS sometimes (or even frequently) over-blows cold air intrusions beyond day 4 and we are still talking a week away. No matter how you slice it though the model has been consistent for several days that "It's Coming!" (in some form or another). And from the looks of it this first front may not by any means be the end of it, but rather only the HERALD of things to come a few days later (as if once was not enough).

For now, and chances are THIS PART ESPECIALLY WILL CHANGE, the model indicates a rapid recovery going into Wednesday-Thursday with yet another system approaching and perhaps again a risk of severe weather mainly due to wind shear (which again might not amount to much other than 'windy rain showers". 

It's the next reinforcing 'blast' that will fully assert if there was any question about it that indeed winter is on the door step --  for by Thursday into Friday and for SEVERAL DAYS beyond we will be seeing temperature below to much below 'normal' with another frontal passage. 

So the gist of this post without going into details was for a 'heads up'...we have MUCH to be THANKFUL FOR this year (and always)...Grace came and comes at a Very High Price for us -- with every breath even - but that doesn't preclude that weather comes too with it's own form of Highs and Lows. 

Unfortunately, tis the season for uncomfortable lows rather than unpleasant Highs (of summer).