Mid-July Patterns Continues - Slow to Change

Thunderstorm with Dangerous 'Random Lightning Bolts" Develops
over the Banana River West of Cape Canaveral on Monday

TODAY: Not a significant change from yesterday with temperatures aloft forecast to be about the same as the past few days. There is the chance that winds in the lower portions of the mid-levels will be a bit stronger from the west today that might hold the sea breeze out to sea north of Vero Beach but if it can form it would remain east of I-95 from Brevard and south (further inland south of Vero or Ft Pierce where mid level westerlies are weaker).

As Yesterday's Rain Developed
This area had the best rains yesterday over Central and South Florida

Best chance of thunder once again along and north of I-4 but might well see it again south of I-4 mainly near and east of I-95 though a few bolts could occur inland as well, especially if activity ends up occurring later than latest guidance implies, which at time calls for an earlier start.

As of this hour though (530AM) very little is going on, which is opposed to short-range model guidance. In the end, it might end up being that today will be much like yesterday in the overall scheme of things, but exactly where an actual storm or shower will cause impact as usual cannot be pre-determined.

WEDNESDAY: This day so far looks to be about the driest day statewide except North Florida but then again, today was looking to be quite dry only yesterday. We'll have to see how it goes. Latest RAP model really does imply for today mainly showery activities but HRRR begs to differ.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like a transition day Thursday but a slow one at that as a frontal boundary develops from low pressure moving east off the Carolinas and slowly sagging its way to Florida and eventually Central Florida by Saturday. Better rain chances thus on Friday and Saturday with storms moving east to west and probably an early start to them too. Saturday might not be the best day to plan for all day beach activities or migrating from inland to frolic in the surf.

SUNDAY: GFS states the frontal boundary will make it's way to South Central Florida before stalling out. From there, the last two model runs have shown differing results developing with said boundary. 

The previous one showed the front working back north with a return to our continued pattern with variations, while the following run forms low pressure along the boundary toward Southeast Florida which lifts north and eventually loops back northwest to North Florida. Overall, the end results would be the same, but if low pressure does form some areas would remain dry away from it's proximity.