Potential For Isolated But Strong Storms Today

LIKE YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER IS AN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE SEVERAL VARIATIONS TO THE THEME

TODAY: Latest satellite imagery shows cloud deck over Florida is trying to thin out. Instability even without a lot of sunshine is higher than yesterday regardless of the cloud deck. Winds at the surface and aloft are similar although yesterday there was vorticity energy over SW Florida per the meso-guidance which set off a severe thunderstorm warning at one point and plentiful coverage in that area; but, that energy aloft is not there today. Additionally  the atmosphere is not as over saturated south of I-4 and even less near and  south of the route from Canaveral to Tampa south through South Central to South Florida, or most of it.

So,  better clearing (there) could ensue as the late morning and early afternoon progresses across that region specifically (but time will tell). Without an upper level trigger there is a chance there could be a prolonged 'cloud break' period which will allow more destabilization to occur. The latest Meso Guidance is showing upper level divergence over that same region, thus the image above is focusing mainly on the south 1/2 of the state today for some stronger storms (not including on going activity over North Florida/ Panhandle region).

It is noted that the mesoscale analysis is showing quite a bit of down- draft CAPE over the same area (most of South to Central Florida)  likely due to some mid-level drying. This should or at least could help further suppress a significant mid-level cloud deck, on the other hand, it might trap it. For now will hedge for better clearing and stronger storms instead; stronger due to gusting rain cooled downdrafts in isolated yet stronger storms after 4pm through as long as it takes for the atmosphere to get worked over, cloud covered, or both .. which could be as soon as 6pm or as late as 9pm. The lightning threat if this does come to fruition might also be enhanced.

Steering today is toward the ENE in general but at only about 10mph. Expect both sea breezes will have progressed inland a ways before activity in full can really get initiated, and not sure that given how far inland the strongest storms will initiate that they will ever make it back to the  east coast as anything more than light - moderate rainfall with maybe a few in cloud lightning strikes aloft. As usual though, time will tell given the uncertainties already outlined above.

JULY 15th 2012 Storm over the
Banana River, Pineda CSWY

SUNDAY/TUESDAY: Pattern change (again) . The low level ridge axis now nearer Central Florida appears will sink south toward Lake Okeechobee and perhaps even further south heading into much of next week, IF SO, low level winds up through the atmospheric columns will all be more from the SW in general and thus provide for a sturdier East-Side leaning or favoring of convective (thunderstorm) activity.

WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME: Another pattern change. This time some drying and steering perhaps a bit more from the WNW but nonetheless toward the east side of the state. Meanwhile, as advertised  a deeper upper level trough is expected to develop from the all too oft prevalent James Bay area low that should again keep steering from a westerly component toward the east as a frontal boundary finds its way somewhere into the Southeast states. So far, the hint is that a normal like summer pattern will continue varying from day to day to at least around the 27th of July with only some variations of the theme discussed in this paragraph. 

END OF MONTH HEADS-UP: We'll soon by closing in on the end of July by the time we 'might' enter another pattern of other sort altogether  as the GFS has twice hinted at the first true tropical like entity approaching the north side of the Dominican Republic. Although this is way too far off in time to even consider, August is a month when tropical activity can take a jump start in leaps and bounds, particularly as we enter the 2nd or 3rd week.