Chance of an Isolated Severe Storm on Thursday Continues

Sunrise Tuesday March 4th, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: As expected, the frontal boundary mentioned in the previous post   hung up over North Central Florida. It appears it made it as far as a line from Port St. John to Central Tampa Bay, but might have slid north a bit after sunrise. The following image is for around 4pm this afternoon showing the boundary extending well into the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong upper level jet (stream)  is approaching that area over Mexico from Southern Cali region which should help  to develop a poorly formed surface low as a result of increased lift ahead of that feature, but better formed toward the mid levels going into Thursday and Friday as it moves east to east - north - east with time.

Temperature plot today for this afternoon from TwisterData.com.
"Like" them on Facebook if desired. Blue is cold, red is warm 

WEDNESDAY: Warmth continues mainly south of I-4 as front moves little. Chance of mainly showers south half of state by mid-late afternoon, but not so sure we'll see thunder in this region. Winds aloft will be increasing but instability looks meager with no surface boundaries being shown 'yet'. SPC is showing for general thunder tomorrow north half of state, but not so sure about that at this point.

THURSDAY: Including the same image from yesterday's post (below) for active weather 'chances' combined with the latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) graphic. They are located in Norman, Oklahoma. It is SPC that issues Tornado/Thunderstorm WATCH boxes. Actual "Warnings" are issued by local offices as conditions warrant, watch box or no watch box.

So far, it appears there might not be a solid enough argument for a Watch Box on Thursday, but we might be in what SPC calls, a "See Text" area for isolated cases of strong or severe-ish like storms, but not numerous enough to warrant a higher degree of concern over a large enough of "population". 

Again, the strong winds aloft and cold air in our region this day isn't to be messed with, but lack of instability and a low level focal point  argues against anything organized except maybe over the Gulf, not to discount however that guidance continues to show ample vertical velocities most anywhere across the state from mid-morning through late afternoon toward sunset.

ABOVE: SPC Low end chance of Severe region (left) compares with yesterday's area in between the 'orange' lines (right).

AS of this morning's looks, that red area would need to be shifted north by about 50 miles and maybe another 'red' area far south Florida/Keys from the GFS 12z (7AM) model run. But since things keep changing within and between model runs, and nothing is fully adding up to a higher confidence of a 'screaming severe' situation, best let lying dogs lay as is for now.

BEYOND: Front to clear through though no later than it appears Friday morning, with little temperature effects other than a cooler Friday. Winds to come back on shore by Saturday after northerlies on Friday , and then we might be seeing a repeat situation set up as noticed before next week.

It is not unusual for a front to come through every 4-7 days this time of year. As it is, this upcoming front will be originating from a low in the western Gulf (as was pointed out) rather than from the far North. The pattern is getting established , so again, the pattern within The Pattern would not be considered unusual to recur in some form or fashion; and sure enough, the GFS is hinting that will be the case. 

That being, another low forms in the near same location from the next front to come through. So far, the signs are that this next one on "Tuesday" if it does so happen to occur, could post a much more significant severe weather threat than the one on Thursday. 

All eyes are on deck with this one already per SPC and and the NWS (National Weather Service).  But so far it's an ear tickler and eye massager until there is a more solid basis to say much more about next week at this point in time.

Other than next Tuesday (which is quite a way off to really be talking about it by and large)...the GFS was showing for an 'extended cool down' the next parts of March for several days, but now that seems to be going by the wayside, with only average to near above average temperatures now being the favored projection. Should be a Spring 'Breakers's Day Dream come true if that continues to be the case going into mid-March. 

Man your battle-stations!!