SYNOPSIS: Low pressure remnant TD5 resides near the big toe of Louisiana this morning with little forward motion detected. High pressure developing in its wake over South and Central Florida well out into the Atlantic to the east, the axis of which appears to be running east-WSW across the state near South Brevard County toward Ft. Myers. Moisture throughout the atmosphere not as abundant as the past few days, but ample enough for showers and thunderstorms, particularly where moisture convergence occurs with boundary interactions between lake/sea breezes. Steering through the column is generally from the SW across the north half of Central Florida and further north (where the greater moisture also resides).
TODAY: Expect the west coast sea breeze to make an early head start late this morning, whereas the east coast sea breeze will have a hard time being established north of somewhere between Melbourne and the Space Center. Delayed sea breeze at least north of Melbourne toward Oak Hill will permit late morning temperatures to be quite warm. Warm mid-upper level temperatures and lack of boundary convergence will likely inhibit late morning convection significantly along the intracoastal. By mid-late afternoon expecting showers and isolated thunderstorms to have developed mainly north of a Melbourne to north of Okeechobee line and points west from near Sarasota north. All activity will move toward the NE-ENE..and be somewhat enhanced as it roles in from S. Osceola county and points north, particularly where there are interactions with the sea breeze. After an afternoon of plentiful sunshine across much of the peninsula, instability levels will maximize after 4:30pm after daytime heating. Boundary interactions will likely be maximized after this time as well since surface winds in the aforementioned areas south of Melbourne (the sea breeze) is strongest. A low level wind shear axis could be established as well where convergence is maximized...much like yesterday where the prevalent SW flow over-runs the sea breeze boundary...so some funnels could be possible under the deepest updrafts. Not really expecting robust lightning producers though, with greatest coastal rain chances for the east coast from around Cocoa Beach and points north of Daytona toward St. Augustine.
DAYS AHEAD: Having to quickly broad-brush this portion this morning due to time constraints, but models are trending toward leaving a somewhat chaotic area of low pressure along the N. Gulf Coast region for nearly a week. In the meantime, high pressure to build southward along the U.S. East Coast and forcing somewhat of a "backdoor" cold front down the eastern sea board ahead of it in the next couple of days as the surface and mid level ridge of high pressure remains over S. Florida. Moisture levels not overly impressive under a continued W-SW steering flow regime with warm temps. aloft, precluding widespread thunderstorm activity...or storms of notably strong intensity. Temperatures will likely remain on the warm side (a few degrees above normal) for much of the state other than extreme SE portions along the coast south of West Palm Beach. Eyes will undoubtedly be focused on the N. Gulf for future development, but at this time it does not look like any development there would be of solely tropical nature. Thunderstorm activity will remain at generally normal to just below normal levels.
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